Met Office Volcanic Gas Work Summary. Dr Matthew Hort With thanks for content & slides to: M. Athanassiadou, A. Schmidt, C. Witham, and others

Transcription

1 Met Office Volcanic Gas Work Summary Dr Matthew Hort With thanks for content & slides to: M. Athanassiadou, A. Schmidt, C. Witham, and others

2 Outline Relevance to VAACS UK Interest UK activities Policy Bárðarbunga Other research Photo Anja Schmidt

3 Why are we interested in SO 2 Health impact Environmental impact Aviation Air passenger health/comfort Possible cost of ownership implications Co-location or not with ash Appropriate actions IVATF Recommendations 4/2, 4/6 & 4/11 (Courtesy of Simon Carn) IAVWOPSG/7 Conclusions 7/8 & 7/34 Crown copyright Met Office

4 Gas Modelling SO 2 is a reactive gas SO 2! Sulphate aerosol (particulate) SO 2 and sulphate have different impacts Sulphate concentrations respond non-linearly to change in SO 2 NAME Lagrangian dispersion model Full air quality chemistry mechanism; > 50 species and 100 reactions

5 UK Interest Laki Lasted 9 months Primary hazard SO 2 and SO 4 (PM2.5) Ash also very much present 20% of Icelandic population and 60% of livestock died Estimated 140,000 additional fatalities across Europe (Schmidt et al., 2011, PNAS) UK - National Risk Assessment Response mechanisms Assessments (Schmidt et al., 2011, PNAS)

6 UK National Risk Assessment/Register Assessment of the risks of civil emergencies facing the UK over the next five years. Updated every 2 years 5 Pandemic influenza Coastal flooding Overall relative impact score Major transport accidents Major industrial accidents Effusive volcanic eruption Other infectious diseases Inland flooding Animal diseases Drought Severe space weather Low temperatures and heavy snow Heatwaves Explosive volcanic eruption Public disorder Storms and gales 1 Severe wildfires Disruptive industrial action Crown copyright Met Office Between 1 in 20,000 and 1 in 2,000 Between 1 in 2,000 and 1 in 200 Between 1 in 200 and 1 in 20 Between 1 in 20 and 1 in 2 Relative likelihood of occurring in the next five years Greater than 1 in 2

7 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Met Office + BGS + University of Leeds, CEH Based on Laki like eruption Model physics and chemistry Huge number of possible options Limited study: Ensemble of meteorology 10 years ESP: height, mass, duration Meteorology Multi-model & Multi-NWP One source profile 5 weeks SO 2 and SO 4 focus but also considered halogens Surface, FL and deposition Daily SO2 emission (Tg) Day in Year 1 Crown copyright Met Office

8 Probability of exceeding High Hourly data SO 2 SO 4 FL300 FL070 Ground

9 Elevated surface SO 2 Example Air concentration (ug/m3) North East West 0 2 Apr 3 Apr 4 Apr 5 Apr 6 Apr 7 Apr 8 Apr Date in Period Animations

10 Elevated surface SO 4 Example 1000 Air concentration (ug/m3) North East West Aug 2 Aug 3 Aug 4 Aug 5 Aug Date in Period Animations

11 UK National Risk Assessment Gas rich Eruption National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies 2015 edition 5 Pandemic influenza Coastal flooding Overall relative impact score 4 3 Major transport accidents Major industrial accidents Widespread electricity failure Effusive volcanic eruption Emerging infectious diseases Inland flooding Severe space weather Low temperatures and heavy snow Heatwaves Poor air quality events 2 Public disorder Severe wildfires Animal diseases Drought Explosive volcanic eruption Storms and gales 1 Disruptive industrial action Between 1 in 20,000 and 1 in 2,000 Between 1 in 2,000 and 1 in 200 Between 1 in 200 and 1 in 20 Between 1 in 20 and 1 in 2 Greater than 1 in 2 Crown copyright Met Office Relative likelihood of occurring in the next five years

12 BÁRÐARBUNGA

13 Bárðarbunga 29 Aug Feb 2015 Largest Icelandic eruption since Laki Lava volume 1.5 km 2 (Flood lava eruption) Non-explosive low altitude release < 6000 m asl Aviation colour code raised to red on 3 occasions Significant Air Quality issues in Iceland Crown copyright Met Office

14 How Much SO 2 is emitted Crown copyright Met Office (Schmidt et al., 2015 Submitted)

15 OMI vs. NAME Column density of SO2 Crown copyright Met Office (Schmidt et al., 2015 Submitted)

16 Dispersion of SO 2 and Sulphate Aerosol SO 2 (gas) Sulfate (aerosol) Animations (Schmidt et al., 2015 Submitted)

17 Bárðarbunga Analysis Model (various source terms) vs Observations IASI OMI Crown copyright Met Office Schmidt et al (2015) submitted

18 Air Quality Observations Iceland UK Ireland Crown copyright Met Office

19 Bárðarbunga Analysis Model (various source terms) vs Observations Observations Baseline 40 kt/d 120 kt/d 120 kt/d Adjusted BL height Crown copyright Met Office Schmidt et al (2015) submitted

20 Detailed Bárðarbunga Analysis Plume should be there Transport distance = 1800 km Crown copyright Met Office (Schmidt et al., 2015 Submitted)

21 REMOTE SENSING DEVELOPMENTS

22 SO 2 Remote Sensing IASI CAA + MOD funded 3 year project Operational quantitative SO 2 products for forecasters Athanassiadou et al (2015) - submitted

23 Met Office References Volcanic Gas A Schmidt, S Leadbetter, N Theys, E Carboni, C. S. Witham, J. A. Stevenson, Cathryn E. Birch, T. Thordarson, S. Turnock, S Barsotti, L Delaney, W Feng, R G. Grainger, M C. Hort, A Höskuldsson, I Ialongo, E Ilyinskaya, T Jóhannsson, P Kenny, T. A. Mather, N. A. D. Richards, and J Shepherd: Satellite detection, long-range transport and air quality impacts of volcanic sulfur dioxide from the flood lava eruption at Bárðarbunga (Iceland). JGR. Submitted Maria Athanassiadou, M., Francis, P. N., Saunders, R., Atkinson, N., Hort, M. C., Havemann, S., Bush, M.: A case study of Sulphur Dioxide identification in three different volcanic eruptions, using Infrared satellite observations (IASI), Meteorological Applications. Submitted Schmidt, A., Witham, C. S., Theys, N., Richards, N. A. D., Thordarson, T., Szpek, K., Feng, W., Hort, M. C., Woolley, A. M., Jones, A. R., Redington, A. L., Ben T Johnson, Hayward, C. L. and Carslaw, K. S.: Assessing hazards to aviation from sulfur dioxide emitted by explosive Icelandic eruptions, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 1 17, doi: /(issn) , Heard, I. P. C., Manning, A. J., Haywood, J. M., Witham, C. S., Redington, A. L., Jones, A. R., Clarisse, L. and Bourassa, A. E.: A comparison of atmospheric dispersion model predictions with observations of SO 2and sulphate aerosol from volcanic eruptions, Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, D00U22, doi: /2011JD016791, Schmidt, A., Carslaw, K. S., Witham, C. S., Hort, M. C. and Thordarson, T.: Future Icelandic flood lava eruptions: towards a probabilistic impact assessment, AGU Chapman Conference, doi: /2005JD006899, Crown copyright Met Office

24 Photo Crown Anja copyright Schmidt Met Office Questions