A Case Study of Sulfur Dioxide in Muscatine, Iowa and the Ability for AERMOD to Predict NAAQS Violations
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1 A Case Study of Sulfur Dioxide in Muscatine, Iowa and the Ability for AERMOD to Predict NAAQS Violations Presented by Charlene Becka Air Quality Engineer
2 NAAQS SO 2 Standards Respiratory irritant in sensitive individuals Standard changed to hourly limit of 75 ppb (approximately 196 µg/m 3 ) in
3 Muscatine, Iowa Area of nonattainment 2010: 14 violations (starting 8-27) 2011: 37 violations 2012: 36 violations 2013: 67 violations 2014: 46 violations (through 9-5) Monitor Monsanto Grain Processing Corp & Muscatine Power and Water Mid American Energy 3
4 Many emission points for each facility Several facilities located near the receptor (monitor) 4
5 Can We Predict A Violation Before It Happens? Historical Analysis Hourly SO 2 monitored concentrations obtained from IDNR for 2007 AERMOD input file with allowable emission rates prepared by IDNR for Muscatine obtained AERMOD run using 1 year (2007) of preprocessed (IDNR) meteorological data based on surface and upper air information Meteorological conditions for highest monitored and modeled concentrations examined 5
6 Concentration, ppb Modeled Measured Hourly Modeled and Monitored Concentrations for /1 1/31 3/2 4/1 5/1 5/31 6/30 7/30 8/29 9/28 10/28 11/27 12/27 Date 6
7 Concentration, ppb Hour Averaged Modeled and Monitored Concentrations for 2007 Modeled Measured /1 1/31 3/2 4/1 5/1 5/31 6/30 7/30 8/29 9/28 10/28 11/27 12/27 Date 7
8 Emissions, lb/d Inaccurate Model Concentrations? It might be due to inaccurate emission rates! Grain Processing Corporation Daily Emissions in
9 Can We Predict A Violation Before It Happens? Forecast Model Analysis Weather forecast models used as meteorological input for AERMOD 9
10 Can We Predict Violations? Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF) High resolution, local model Hourly concentrations Retro analysis Bounded with observational nudging 10
11 Can We Predict Violations? North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) Low resolution, regional model Unbound Concentrations every 6 hours 11
12 Emissions, lb/d Emission Variability By Day, March Emission inventories and CEMS data obtained These were used as daily emission rates in AERMOD GPC Musc Power and Water Mid Am Energy Monsanto Day of March 12
13 WRF Processing Need to convert WRF forecast into files AERMOD can read Surface Upper air Mesoscale Model Interface Program (MMIF) EPA beta program 13
14 Concentration, ug/m3 WRF vs Monitored Concentrations: Highest Values Highest actual Highest WRF Day of March 14
15 NAM Processing NAM files unreadable by MMIF Downloaded NAM files (compressed grib2 format) Used Linux program that stripped the variables out of the NAM file, placed variables into WRF file Processed the new WRF files (filled with NAM variables) with MMIF 15
16 Concentration, ug/m3 NAM vs. Monitored Concentrations: Highest Values Monitored conc Day 2 forecast Day 3 forecast Day of March 16
17 Overall Results Violations Correct violations False positives Unreported violations Correct nonviolations Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Monitored 9 22 WRF % % % % % NAM Day % % % % % NAM Day % % % % % WRF overpredicted, but correctly predicted more days when they occurred NAM predicted number of days more accurately, but timing of violations was inaccurate 17
18 Final Thoughts More research is needed using the latest technology and tools to accurately predict a violation before it occurs. Using prognostic meteorological data such as WRF or NAM could possibly be used in a regulatory setting as an alternative to the standard modeling practice. 18
19 Questions? Charlene Becka Wenck Associates, Inc. 19
20 A Case Study of Sulfur Dioxide in Muscatine, Iowa and the Ability for AERMOD to Predict NAAQS Violations Presented by Charlene Becka Air Quality Engineer
A case study of sulfur dioxide concentrations in Muscatine, Iowa and the ability for AERMOD to predict NAAQS violations
University of Iowa Iowa Research Online Theses and Dissertations Fall 2014 A case study of sulfur dioxide concentrations in Muscatine, Iowa and the ability for AERMOD to predict NAAQS violations Charlene
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