AREP GAW. Section 14 Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations
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1 Section 14 Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations
2 Daily Forecast Operations Nine steps to produce an accurate air quality forecast a suggested method Review yesterday s forecast Review the latest air quality data Review the weather Develop a phenomenological forecast Run forecast tools Produce a final forecast Document the forecast Distribute the forecast Monitor air quality and meteorology 2
3 Daily Forecast Operations Example Forecast: Sacramento, California, USA Day (August 22, 25) Day 1 (August 23, 25) 3
4 Step 1: Review Yesterday s Forecast (1 of 3) Did the forecast for yesterday verify? If the forecast missed by more than 2-3%, a retrospective study is recommended. Did it verify for the right reasons? For example, you forecasted for low ozone because of predicted rain, but low ozone occurred with no rain. Did all monitors report data yesterday? Are there any bad data points? If the forecast didn t verify, does that affect the forecast you plan to issue today? 4
5 Step 1: Review Yesterday s Forecast (2 of 3) Verification for yesterday Ozone forecast issued on August 22, 25 (Day ) for August 22, 25 (Day ): 8 ppb Observed peak 8-hr average ozone on August 22, 25 (Day ) Placerville: 79 ppb Cool: 75 ppb Elk Grove: 73 ppb Folsom: 72 ppb Ozone forecast issued on August 22, 25 (Day ) for August 23, 25 (Day 1): 75 ppb 5
6 Step 1: Review Yesterday s Forecast (3 of 3) Discussion issued on August 22, 25 (Day ): Today, skies will remain sunny and temperatures will be seasonably warm. These conditions, combined with a light to moderate afternoon delta breeze, will lead to Moderate ozone levels. In addition, an isolated site in the foothills may reach Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups. Tomorrow, an upper-level trough of low pressure will move into the Pacific Northwest, weakening the temperature inversion, strengthening the delta breeze, and cooling temperatures a few degrees. These conditions will result in Good to Moderate AQI levels across the Sacramento region. 6
7 Aug 23-Aug Cool : 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 1 : 11 : 12 : 13 : 14 : 15 : 16 : 17 : 18 : 19 : 2 : 21 : 22 : 23 : 5 Ozone concentration (ppb) 6 : PP-Aug 23-Aug Ozone Concentration (ppb) 9 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 1 : 11 : 12 : 13 : 14 : 15 : 16 : 17 : 18 : 19 : 2 : 21 : 22 : 23 : 7 Elk Grove : 8 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 1 : 11 : 12 : 13 : 14 : 15 : 16 : 17 : 18 : 19 : 2 : 21 : 22 : 23 : Ozone Concentration (ppb) 7 3: : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 1 : 11 : 12 : 13 : 14 : 15 : 16 : 17 : 18 : 19 : 2 : 21 : 22 : 23 : 8 1: 2: Ozone concentration (ppb) : Step 2: Review the Latest Air Quality Data Are all sites reporting data today? How does yesterday s air quality compare with today s? Is today s meteorology (wind, temperature) similar to yesterday s? 9 Placerville 22-Aug 23-Aug Folsom 22-Aug 23-Aug Hourly ozone todayoperations and yesterday Section values 14 Daily Airfrom Quality Forecast 7
8 Step 3: Review the Weather (1 of 4) What is the general synoptic pattern? Ridges and troughs Upper-level warming and cooling Surface and aloft winds Is the large-scale pattern changing? Are these changes going to influence local weather and air quality? What are the local meteorological conditions? If weather forecasts are predicting conditions conducive to good air quality, consider skipping to Step 6, Produce a Final Forecast 8
9 Step 3: Review the Weather (2 of 4) 5-mb heights Day : August 22, GMT Day 1: August 23, GMT Day 2: August 24, GMT Surface analysis * * * * * * 9
10 Step 3: Review the Weather (3 of 4) Soundings in Sacramento, California, August 22-24, 25. Morning Evening Day Day 1 Day 2 1
11 Step 3: Review the Weather (4 of 4) August 22 (Day ) August 23 (Day 1) Elk Grove winds Cool winds Folsom winds Placerville winds 11
12 Step 4: Develop a Phenomenological Forecast (1 of 2) Use your conceptual understanding to fill in the following air quality forecast worksheet. The worksheet is designed to capture important processes that influence air quality. Ozone (ppb) 5-mb Pattern Surface Pattern Winds Inversion/ Mixing Carryover Clouds/Fo Transport/ g Recirculation Yesterday Today Tomorrow 12
13 Step 4: Develop a Phenomenological Forecast (2 of 2) Example forecast worksheet for ozone Ozone (ppb) 5-mb Pattern Surface Pattern Winds Day 79 Weak Trough Weak onshore Day 1 88 Weak Trough Day 2 87 Weak Trough Inversion/ Mixing Carryover Clouds/ Fog Transport/ Recirculation Light delta Strong inversion, breeze some mixing from trough No Sunny None No gradient Light delta Strong inversion, breeze some mixing from trough Yes Sunny None Weak offshore Moderate Weak inversion, Yes delta breeze mixing from trough Sunny None 13
14 Step 5: Run Forecast Tools Gather and review forecast and observational data needed to run the forecast tool(s). Run the tool(s). Modify input values to estimate the impact of uncertainties in the weather forecasts. Save inputs and outputs for future verification. 14
15 Step 5: Run Forecast Tools Example Day 1 Section 14 Daily Air Quality Forecast Regression forecasting tool output foroperations Sacramento, California 15
16 Step 6: Produce a Final Forecast Review output from forecast tools and the conceptual forecast. Do the forecasts from different tools agree? If so, you may choose to use the average or the high or low values, or some value in between depending on your program objectives. If not, check inputs for each tool. Ozone Forecast (ppb) Phenomenological Tool Final Day 1 Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups 7 88 Day 2 Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups
17 Step 7: Document the Forecast Document forecast rationale What happened yesterday What s expected today and tomorrow and why Sacramento Forecast Discussion issued August 23, 25 (Day 1) Today, despite an upper-level trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest, the temperature inversion remains strong, the delta breeze is weak, and temperatures are warm in the Sacramento area. These conditions will result in Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups AQI levels across much of the region. Tomorrow, the temperature inversion will begin to weaken as the upper-level trough moves south into Northern California. In addition, cooler surface temperatures and a stronger delta breeze will lower ozone levels. However, high carryover from today will keep ozone levels low-end Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in the foothills. 17
18 Step 8: Distribute the Forecast Ensure forecast distribution occurs on time by planning a daily timeline. Distribution Internal (technical details) Public (generalized and health-oriented) Fax Internet Phone Pager 18
19 Step 9: Monitor Air Quality and Meteorology (1 of 2) Monitor the air quality and meteorology throughout the day for unexpected changes. Update the forecast if meteorology or air quality is different than expected. Ensure that incoming data are reasonable given the meteorological and air quality conditions. 19
20 9 Placerville : 1 : 11 : 12 : 13 : 14 : 15 : 16 : 17 : 18 : 19 : 2 : 21 : 22 : 23 : 8: 7: 9: 1 : 11 : 12 : 13 : 14 : 15 : 16 : 17 : 18 : 19 : 2 : 21 : 22 : 23 : 8: 7: 6: 22-Aug 23-Aug 5: Folsom 6: 1 5: 4: 3: 4: 2 2: 4 8 3: 6 1: 9 2: 8 Ozone concentration (ppb) 22-Aug 23-Aug : Ozone Concentration (ppb) Elk Grove 1: 22-Aug 23-Aug Ozone Concentration (ppb) : 1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: 1 : 11 : 12 : 13 : 14 : 15 : 16 : 17 : 18 : 19 : 2 : 21 : 22 : 23 : 12 : 1 8 : 19 : 2 : 21 : 22 : 23 : 1 6 : 17 : 14 : 15 : 7 12 : 13 : 8 1 : 11 : Ozone concentration (ppb) 1 4: 5: 6: 7: 8: 9: : 1: 2: 3: Step 9: Monitor Air Quality and Meteorology (2 of 2) Ozone concentrations at Cool, Folsom, and Elk Grove are higher than yesterday during the peak afternoon hours. Forecast for higher ozone concentrations today is on track. 1 Cool 22-Aug 23-Aug
21 Summary Following a predetermined daily forecasting protocol helps produce a consistent, timely, and accurate forecast. 21
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