Pairing Monitored Background and Modeled Data Paired Sums (24-Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS Modeling)

Transcription

1 Pairing Monitored Background and Modeled Data Paired Sums (24-Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS Modeling) EPA Regional/State/Local Modelers Workshop Portland, Oregon May 2010 Dennis Becker Minnesota Pollution Control Agency 1

2 Recent National Attention (Background, Paired Sums) 9 th Conference on Air Quality Modeling Presentation by Robert (Bob) Paine, ENSR AWMA 3/12/2010 letter to Tyler Fox, EPA Schewe, Catizone, Paine, and others EPA-NACAA workgroup (background PM 2.5 ) Minnesota Priority (esp. 24-hour PM 2.5 ) Rural Test Case: Granite Falls Energy (ethanol plant) 2

3 Minnesota PM 2.5 Monitor Types & Locations (2005) Federal Reference Method (FRM) Beta Attenuation Monitors (BAMS) IMPROVE Speciation Trends Network (STN) 3

4 24-Hr PM 2.5 FRM Design Values (MN) 4

5 Paired Sums Approach (MN) Pairing in time prevents combining monitored and modeled values occurring on different days. Modeled maximum = January 1 Monitored maximum = July 1 Pairing in space (regional approximations) Representative or conservative background sites CAMx provides simple qualitative regional insight for PM 2.5» See rural test case 5

6 Paired Sums Approach (MN) Extra requirements Approved protocol Traditional information plus special information site selections, data period, missing data, etc. Post-processing 5 years concurrent meteorology and monitored data 6

7 Paired Sums Approach (MN) Model ALL sources. Then add daily background via MPCA post-processor Facility Sources + Significant Nearby Sources + Concurrent Background Use monitor sites with expected similar or higher concentrations: Rural projects use rural, suburban, or urban sites Urban projects use urban sites 7

8 Paired Sums PM 2.5 Details Site Types (period of record must match met data) Beta-Attenuation Method (BAM) continuous data daily averages Federal Reference Method (FRM) 1-in-3 or 1-in-6 day (too sparse in time) Site Hierarchy Primary Site Most representative to facility location reasonably conservative site is also acceptable Backup Sites & Backup Values Fill in missing data at primary site 8

9 MPCA Paired-Sums PM2.5 Post-Processor Fortran program Input AERMOD POSTFILE (SRCGROUP ALL ) Other SRCGROUPs are optional (culp. info.) Monitored data (date, daily values by site) Output (3 text files) [*.txt, *.plt, *.bkg] Simple QA: post-processor reproduces AERMOD output if background is zero 9

10 PM2.5 Post-Processor Output MPCA PAIRED SUMS TECHNIQUE (PST) [24HOUR PM2.5] Dennis Becker, MPCA (07APR 2010) [24HOUR PM2.5] 80 DAY&HR(YYMMDDHH): BKGRND(BAM_DATA): AERMOD(ALL ): (GFEFS2_A): (GFEFS2_B): (GFEFS2_C): (GFEFS2_D): (GFEFS2_E): (GFEFS003): (GFESV004): (GFESV001): (GFESV006): (GFESV013): (GFESV011): (GFSV002A): (GFSV002B): (GFESV003): (GFESV005): (GFESV007): (GFESV008): (GFESV010): (GFESV012): (GFEU013A): (GFEU013B): (GFEU013C): (GFEU013D): (GFEU013E): (GFEROADS): PAIRED(**SUMS**): MPCA PAIRSUMS MAXIMUM = at RCP# 80 [PM2.5 Standard=35ug/m3] 10

11 Rural Test Case (Granite Falls Energy, MN) Natural Gas-Fired Ethanol Plant Boiler, RTO, dryers, grain dryer, flares, hammermills, cooling towers, etc. ( 24/7 ) Emergency firewater pump (horiz. rel. now) Typically: 15 minute test just once a month Modeled: PTE weekdays 8am-4pm; w/up elbow Fugitive emissions (grain, ddgs, wetcake) Haul trucks and miscellaneous vehicles Road Dust (AP42 + Corn Refiners Assoc. data) SCAQMD EMISFAC 2007 v2.3 (HDDV, tailpipe) 11

12 Rural Test Case PROJECT TITLE: GFE 24HR PMFP [6AM_10PM: FS2A&E CE=90%; FSetc CE=80%; SLbyMHRdow] FIREPUMP test ~0.25hrs/month [assume PTE weekdays 8AM-4PM; HRDOW7] PROJECT TITLE: GFE 24HR PMFP [6AM_10PM: FS2A&E CE=90%; FSetc CE=80%; SLbyMHRdow] FIREPUMP test ~0.25hrs/month [assume PTE weekdays 8AM-4PM; HRDOW7] UTM North [m] UTM North [m] UTM East [m] UTM East [m] COMMENTS: SOURCES: COMPANY NAME: COMMENTS: SOURCES: COMPANY NAME: RECEPTORS: MODELER: RECEPTORS: MODELER: SCALE: 1:4,330,662 SCALE: 1:6, km km DATE: PROJECT NO.: DATE: PROJECT NO.: 5/3/2010 5/3/2010 AERMOD View - Lakes Environmental Software X:\Agency_Files\Outcomes\Risk_Eval_Air_Mod\Air_Modeling\VIEWINPS\GFE_PMFP\GFE_PMFP.isc AERMOD View - Lakes Environmental Software X:\Agency_Files\Outcomes\Risk_Eval_Air_Mod\Air_Modeling\VIEWINPS\GFE_PMFP\GFE_PMFP.isc 12

13 Rural Test Case 13

14 Rural Test Case Wind Rose (Redwood Falls, MN) 14

15 Rural Test Case Photochemical Model Considerations Qualitative Only PM 2.5 Year 2005 CAMx, 12km Simple map to aid BAM site selection Higher PM 2.5 to the east and southeast Granite Falls Energy 15

16 Rural Test Case PM 2.5 Monitor Selection Priority PM 2.5 BAM Saint Cloud (STC) 1721 days (94.2%) Apple Valley (APV) 99 days (5.4%) Rochester (RST) 7 days (0.4%) Maximum of all sites 0 days (0.0%) Granite Falls Energy!( STC APV RST 16

17 Rural Test Case Results (24-Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS=35) GFE PM 2.5 Sources Only Traditional Approach (Unpaired) AERMOD 98percentile = 16 µg/m 3 BAM data 98percentile = 25 µg/m 3 Total = 41 µg/m 3 MPCA Paired Sums Technique AERMOD + BAM (STC, APV, RST) = 33 µg/m 3 17

18 Rural Test Case Results (24-Hour PM 2.5 NAAQS=35) GFE PM 2.5 and Regional PM 10 Sources Traditional Approach (Unpaired) AERMOD 98percentile = 21 µg/m 3 BAM data 98percentile = 25 µg/m 3 Total = 46 µg/m 3 MPCA Paired Sums Technique AERMOD + BAM (STC, APV, RST) = 35.0 µg/m 3 AERMOD + BAM (APV, STC, RST) = 37.5 µg/m 3 18

19 MPCA Short-Term Schedule (Paired Sums Technique) April 2010 MPCA request for EPA Region 5 approval EPA Environmental Science Connector New NAAQS Modeling May 2010 EPA R/S/L Modelers Workshop Now EPA Region 5 Review June 2010 EPA Region 5 Response 19

20 MPCA Long-Term Roadmap Current Approach (Paired Sums) PM 2.5, NO 2, SO 2 using monitor data only Future exploration PM 2.5 fusing of photochemical model output with monitor data Extended Voronoi Neighbor Averaging (evna) used in EPA MATS attainment software Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling NO 2 and SO 2??? 20

21 Summary & Needs Goal: reasonable & protective NAAQS modeling results PM 2.5, NO 2, SO 2 How: paired sums concurrent in time; representative or conservative in space Needs: approvals & guidance (MPCA priorities) Early 2010 Needs (Very Urgent: Paired Sums approval ASAP) EPA approval (June 2010) for PSD projects with modeling protocol MPCA approval for small (non-psd) projects w/ modeling protocol More 2010 Needs (Also Urgent) NO2: SILs; NO2/NOX ratios; DEFAULT vs. OLM vs. PVMRM PM2.5: SILs POINTCAP, POINTHOR Post 2010 Needs (Less Urgent) PM2.5: BAM vs. FRM adjustments Emission distributions (Monte Carlo simulations) [AWMA comment] 21

22 Questions? Paired Sums (AERMOD) Modeling: Dennis Becker, Photochemical Modeling: Margaret McCourtney,