2002 Year in Review Project Manager Gary Kleiman Principal Contributors (NESCAUM) Al Leston John Graham George Allen Gary Kleiman

Transcription

1 2002 Year in Review Project Manager Gary Kleiman Principal Contributors (NESCAUM) Al Leston John Graham George Allen Gary Kleiman Modeling and Data Analysis/Monitoring Meeting September 30, John Graham, NESCAUM

2 Overview 2002 represents middle of the baseline period for haze Focus year for modeling and data analysis activities This report provides overview of available data sets, with initial assessment; data archive available & growing State generated data primary focus of report Approaches for data presentation and analysis provide basis for future work by states/mane-vu moves forward in SIP process and development

3 Table of Contents I. Introduction II. Monitoring Networks in the MANE-VU Region III. Overview of 2002 IV. Detailed Spatial Analysis V. Detailed Temporal Analysis VI. Conclusion Appendices

4 Monitoring Networks in the MANE-VU Region Routine PM Mass Measurements Federal Reference Method (FRM) 24-hour integrated mass; daily, 1-in-3, 1-in-6 schedule In 2002, MANE-VU had 31 daily, in-3 with 133 having 75% annualized data capture Mixture of urban/rural; variety of land use categories Continuous (hourly) methods Converted to be FRM-like using Julian Day Approach 20 Sites had 75% seasonal data capture Routine PM Speciation Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE): 18 sites in MANE-VU, 17 full year, 3 nearby Speciation Trends Network (STN): 42 sites total, 26 full year

5 Monitoring Networks in the MANE-VU Region Routine PM Mass Measurements (cont.) Routine Visibility CAMNET: 6 sites operating, 2 in Class 1 Areas (hazecam.net) Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS)

6 Monitoring Networks in the MANE-VU Region Special Studies AIRMAP/NEAQS Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis and Prediction (AIRMAP) run by UNH: Climate/AQ interaction New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) NOAA pilot in 2002 Enhanced surface obs, profilers, Ron Brown, Aircraft Flights Radar Profiler Network Radio Acoustic Sounding System (RASS): Lower BL winds, Tv Radar: Winds at coarse res in upper BL

7 Monitoring Networks in the MANE-VU Region Special Studies (cont.) PM Supersites 3 MANE-VU sites: NYC, Baltimore, Pittsburg Less data available than anticipated PM Health Centers 3 MANE-VU sites: Boston, NYC, Rochester Most 2002 measurements limited to Boston Upper Air Measurements UMD s Regional Atmospheric Measurement Modeling and Prediction Program (RAMMPP): Aircraft Flights 2004 Millersville Balloon Study: Could improve general understanding of atmospheric behavior of fine particles HYSPLIT Back Trajectories NESCAUM database for 17 sites ( )

8 Monitoring Networks in the MANE-VU Region Data Availability Appendix A lists data sets available through NESCAUM repository Supersite Integrated Relational Database (SIRD) Directory Sub-Directory/File Name Notes File Type Parameter(s) Site(s) Start Date End Date STI profiler data Mane-Vu-STI 2002 profiler data -- Access database.zip Contains file "NESCAUM.mdb" - includes data for both sites. Zipped MS Access DB All UA Stow MA / East Brunswick NJ 6/13/ /31/ STN- Improve- FRM_JG 2002 data - JG.zip 5 Excel files with both raw and summarized data. Zipped Excel IMPROVE, STN, FRM mass 20 IMP (incl. 3 non- MANE-VU), 42 STN, in-3 FRM, 31 "everyday" FRM 1/1/ /31/2002 Airmap Mount Washington AIRMAP bulk aerosol_gallen.xls Contains ~24hr data - Mt Wash only. Excel sprdsht SO 4, NO 3, NA, NH 4, K, Mg, Ca, Cl. Mt. Washington 6/1/ /31/2002

9 Overview of 2002 State by State Summaries Statistics on MANE-VU FRM sites Table detailing Urban/Rural Sites (#, obs, ranges) 142 urban and 22 rural sites, over 25,000 data points % Mean Median 5% Regional Urban PM2.5 mass distribution statistics from Southwest to Northeast PA DC MD DE NJ NY CT MA VT RI NH ME

10 Overview of 2002 Time Series of 1-in-3 Day Samples State by State Graphical summary 2002 PM2.5 from 1-in-3 sites DE in 1-in-3 Delaware Sites with > 75% data capture ug/m /2/02 2/1/02 3/3/02 4/2/02 5/2/02 6/1/02 7/1/02 7/31/02 8/30/02 9/29/02 10/29/02 11/28/02 12/28/02

11 Overview of 2002 Time Series of Everyday Samples State by State Graphical summary 2002 PM2.5 from everyday DE sites Everyday in Sites Delaware with > 75% data capture ug/m /1/ /1/ /1/2002 9/1/2002 8/1/2002 7/1/2002 6/1/2002 5/1/2002 4/1/2002 3/1/2002 2/1/2002 1/1/2002

12 Overview of 2002 Temporal Patterns of PM Mass Distribution Statewide Average Interannual Variability 18 Annual Mean PM 2.5 Concentrations in MANE-VU States Ann Mean 2001 Ann Mean 2002 Ann Mean 2003 Ann Mean 0 CT DE DC ME MD MA NH NJ NY PA RI VT MANE-VU

13 Overview of 2002 Temporal Patterns of PM Mass Distribution Weekday versus Weekend variations 15 MANE-VU Regional Mean PM 2.5 by Day of Week 18 PM 2.5 by Day of Week for the MANE-VU Region (Without Wildfire Data, 7/6-10) Conc. (ug/m3) Average with July Fire data removed ug/m % CL 9 8 PM2.5 Conc. - 95% CL 8 Sun. Mon. Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat 6 Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Weekdays Weekends 1-in-3 day plot daily samplers

14 Overview of 2002 Temporal Patterns of PM Mass Distribution Creating FRM-like Hourly Data: Julian Day Algorithm Summary Statistics Table Summary of FRM-like continuous fine particle measurements for FRM-like Hourly Data (ug/m 3 ) CT DE ME NJ NY PA VT MANE-VU # Sites # Obs. 25,991 8,300 25,656 33,637 34,080 25,650 17, ,750 Max % % % Median Mean % % % Min

15 Overview of 2002 Temporal Patterns of PM Mass Distribution Diurnal Mass Distribution Annual, Seasonal, Urban, Rural differences 20 Diurnal Hourly Fine Aerosol Concentrations ug/m New Haven, CT Pittsburgh, PA Rutland, VT White Face (Base), NY Start Hour Differences in annual diurnal patterns between urban and rural sites.

16 Overview of 2002 Speciated Data 2002 Annual and Seasonal Maps for PM 2.5 Mass and Major Consituents

17 Overview of 2002 Speciated Data 2002 Seasonal Maps Ammonium Sulfate SPRING SUMMER FALL SPRING

18 Overview of 2002 Speciated Data 2002 Seasonal Maps Ammonium Nitrate SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER -

19 Overview of 2002 Speciated Data SPRING 2002 Seasonal Maps Carbon SUMMER For the purposes of this map, C is the sum of EC and OC, where OC is the mass of C only (i.e. no multiplicative factor) FALL WINTER Given the different operational definitions of OC/EC by IMPROVE and STN, this is the simplest approach to map the carbon measurements of both networks.

20 Detailed Spatial Analysis Rural vs. Urban PM 2.5 Mass 8.0 FRM Urban-Rural Pairs Urban-Rural Conc. (ug/m 3 ) /1/2002 1/2/2002 4/2/2002 3/3/2002 6/1/2002 5/2/2002 7/1/2002 7/31/ /28/ /28/ /29/2002 9/29/2002 8/30/2002 Difference in FRM data between 10 urban/rural site pairs for 2002

21 Detailed Spatial Analysis Rural vs. Urban Chemistry NYC Urban area compared to an upwind Background Site Mass (ug/m 3 ) NYC BG NYC 2002 Urban-Rural PM 2.5 BG NYC BG NYC BG Other PM2.5 Soil EC_STN OCM_STN AmmNO3 AmmSO4 annual winter spring summer fall NYC BG measurement values per season, same day data

22 Detailed Spatial Analysis Regional Scales of Influence TEOM 60-day running average values for Boston & New Haven Fine Aerosol Mass (ug/m3) 5 Boston New Haven 0 10/11/98 6/22/98 3/3/98 11/12/97 7/23/97 4/2/97 12/7/96 8/11/96 4/20/96 12/31/95 9/5/95 5/16/95 1/15/95 5/7/03 1/12/03 9/23/02 6/4/02 2/13/02 10/25/01 7/6/01 3/17/01 11/26/00 8/7/00 4/18/00 12/29/99 9/9/99 5/21/99 1/30/99

23 Detailed Spatial Analysis Regional Scales of Influence 30 Day Running Ave. Concentrations from Eight MANE-VU Sites 35 New Haven, CT 30 Wilmington, DE Boston, MA Portland, ME Camden, NJ Buffalo, NY Pittsburgh, PA Rutland, VT Data from 7/5/02 through 7/11/02 is excluded Fine Aerosol Conc. (ug/m3) 5 0 9/28/02 9/13/02 8/29/02 8/14/02 7/30/02 7/15/02 6/30/02 6/15/02 5/31/02 5/16/02 5/1/02 4/16/02 4/1/02 3/17/02 3/2/02 2/15/02 1/31/02 1/16/02 1/1/02 12/27/02 12/12/02 11/27/02 11/12/02 10/28/02 10/13/02

24 Detailed Spatial Analysis Regional Scales of Influence 2002 Ann Ave PM 2.5 maps comparing different measurement spatial density

25 Detailed Spatial Analysis Regional Scales of Influence 2002 Ann Ave PM 2.5 maps comparing different spatial representativeness

26 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes of Interest PM 2.5 episodes of regional interest in MANE-VU Daily Regional Mean PM 2.5 for /1/2002 1/1/2002 4/1/2002 3/1/2002 6/1/2002 5/1/2002 8/1/2002 7/1/ /1/2002 9/1/ /1/ /1/ sites averaged per plotted point PM2.5 (ug/m3)

27 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes Analysis Surface Wx, Hourly PM 2.5, Hourly O 3, Back Trajectories Aug 9, am EDT

28 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes Analysis Surface Wx, Hourly PM 2.5, Hourly O 3, Back Trajectories Aug 10, am EDT

29 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes Analysis Surface Wx, Hourly PM 2.5, Hourly O 3, Back Trajectories Aug 11, am EDT

30 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes Analysis Surface Wx, Hourly PM 2.5, Hourly O 3, Back Trajectories Aug 12, am EDT

31 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes Analysis Surface Wx, Hourly PM 2.5, Hourly O 3, Back Trajectories Aug 13, am EDT

32 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes Analysis Surface Wx, Hourly PM 2.5, Hourly O 3, Back Trajectories Aug 14, am EDT

33 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes Analysis Surface Wx, Hourly PM 2.5, Hourly O 3, Back Trajectories August 15, 8:00 AM EDT Aug 15, am EDT

34 Detailed Temporal Analysis Episodes Analysis Surface Wx, Hourly PM 2.5, Hourly O 3, Back Trajectories Aug 16, am EDT

35 Detailed Temporal Analysis Temporal Resolution of the Data Effect of averaging time (or temporal resolution) on time series information Unfiltered Figure 5.6(a) Unfiltered (hourly) TEOM data from New Haven, Conn Figure 5.6(b) New Haven, Conn. TEOM data with a 3-hour filter Fine Aerosol Mass (ug/m3) 20 3-Hour filter Fine Aerosol Conc. (ug/m3) /10/02 0:00 8/11/02 0:00 8/12/02 0:00 8/13/02 0:00 8/14/02 0:00 8/16/02 0:00 8/15/02 0:00 8/10/02 0:00 8/11/02 0:00 8/12/02 0:00 8/13/02 0:00 8/14/02 0:00 8/16/02 0:00 8/15/02 0:00 6-Hour filter Figure 5.6(c) New Haven, Conn. TEOM data with a 6-hour filter Figure 5.6(d) New Haven, Conn. TEOM data with a 24-hour filter Hour filter Fine Aerosol Conc. (ug/m3) Fine Aerosol Conc. (ug/m3) New Haven TEOM 8/10/02 0:00 8/11/02 0:00 8/12/02 0:00 8/13/02 0:00 8/14/02 0:00 8/15/02 0:00 8/16/02 0:00 8/10/02 0:00 8/11/02 0:00 8/12/02 0:00 8/13/02 0:00 8/14/02 0:00 8/15/02 0:00 8/16/02 0:00

36 Detailed Temporal Analysis Temporal Resolution of the Data 100 ug/m Arendtsville, PA Wilmington, DE Camden, NJ New Brunswick, NJ NYC (Bronx), NY Hartford, CT Boston, MA Portland, ME Hourly average and 24- Hour rolling average fine aerosol at 8 MANE-VU sites during the August, 2002 episode Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug ug/m Aug Arendtsville, PA 9-Aug Wilmington, DE Camden, NJ New Brunswick, NJ NYC (Bronx), NY Hartford, CT Boston, MA Portland, ME Gray: Arendsville, PA Purple, Aqua, Yellow: DE, NJ sites Red: Hartford, CT Green: Boston, MA Blue: Portland, ME Aug 7-Aug 8-Aug 9-Aug 10-Aug 11-Aug 12-Aug 13-Aug 14-Aug 15-Aug 16-Aug -10

37 Conclusion Report Findings Fine particulates in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic U.S. consist of approximately half sulfate, with the balance consisting of a mix of organic material, nitrates, elemental carbon, soil, and other trace components. Fine particle concentrations tend to peak during summer months and winter months with relatively few high PM episodes occurring during the spring or fall. During the summer, sulfates are highest in concentration over the southern and western portion of the MANE-VU region, closer to source regions associated with high SO 2 emissions.

38 Conclusion Report Findings Limited atmospheric mixing during the winter months, changes in thermodynamic stability of secondary organic aerosol and particulate nitrate, as well as potential increases of local emission sources during winter months all contribute to PM episodes during winter which, though usually less severe, tend to be more localized in urban locations where the greatest potential for human exposure exists. In general, sites tend to track together across very broad geographic scales suggesting the regional influence on ambient fine particulate concentrations. The most significant differences are observed between coastal and inland sites and those in the far southern portions of the MANE-VU domain relative to the Northeast portions.