Workshop on Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations. Phoenix, Arizona 19 February 2009

Transcription

1 Workshop on Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations Phoenix, Arizona 19 February 2009

2 Integrating Forecasting into the EMS and Control Center by the Portuguese TSO Rui Pestana System Operator Studies and Development REN Rede Eléctrica Nacional, S.A.

3 3 Topics Installed Capacity Wind power forecast Applications Load to be covered by the market Grid security assessment using wind power forecast Next applications

4 Installed Capacity 4

5 5 Evolution of Wind generation Wind Energy (with off-shore) 4000 GWh (2007) GWh (2020) Wind Power 2007 a % 2020: Renewable 60% Wind: 8000 MW MW 9000 TWh

6 6 Where are the wind farms? North of Portugal Centre of Portugal North of Lisbon Small region Wind can show up and go fast

7 Why we need Wind Forecast? 7

8 8 Wind Power Forecast REN started in 2005 with the help of IST Technical University of Lisbon. Hourly wind forecast for 3 days 4 forecasts a day REN converts wind to power using the manufacture curves In 2006 We use SCADA online data to incorporate persistence in the model It s affects the next 10 hours Forecast for 7 days once a week On Friday to cover the Monday operational planning

9 9 Wind Power Forecast In 2007 We change from hourly forecasts to 15 minutes In the 1st Semester we benchmark 3 providers IST MM5 University of Aveiro WRF Meteorologica from Spain Statistical (NWP) In the 2nd Semester In 2008 We stay with IST and UA We start assemble both forecast s No changes

10 10 How do we Predict? Ask for technical data The location of the wind turbines

11 How do we Predict? 11 We select one site (turbine) for each sub-cluster Latitude WGS84 Picos Longitude WGS84 Latitude WGS84 Alto do Corisco Longitude WGS84 Latitude WGS84 Santo António Longitude WGS84 Latitude WGS84 Mendoiro Longitude WGS84 Latitude WGS84 Bustavade Longitude WGS84 Latitude WGS84 Picoto Longitude WGS84 Latitude WGS84 São Silvestre Longitude WGS84

12 12 How do we Predict? Ask for technical data Type of machines Height of the turbines Ask IST and UA to predict wind for the selected sites at the turbine height IST uses MM5 : 81km to 9km UA uses WRF : 0,5º to 4km We convert wind to power using the manufacture power curve (new wind farm) We ensemble both power prediction

13 13 How do we Predict? We use the real time SCADA data to incorporate the persistence (10 hours) S1 : Without persistence S2 : REN persistence S4 : IST persistence

14 Wind Power Forecast (Status of 11-Feb-2009) 14

15 Wind Power Forecast Errors 15 By Average Power IST UA MIX Normalized Errors Jan-08 Fev-08 Mar-08 Abr-08 Mai-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Ago-08 Set-08 Out-08 Nov-08 Dez-08

16 16 With 3 days in advance we know it s going down MW :00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00

17 17 EMS Applications using wind power forecast Load Forecast Initially we forecast the load covered by the TSO (Very High Voltage) Small production on the distribution network was neglected (negative load) But with the big increase on distributed generation, specially wind, the LF error became too big.

18 18 EMS Applications using wind power forecast Load Forecast Total load was the new objective In Portugal the Special Regime Production (PRE) don't go to the market We need to forecast the load need to be covered by the market

19 19 EMS Applications using wind power forecast Load Forecast The influence of wind production is significant Maximum e Minimum use of install Wind Capacity (2007)

20 20 Wind Distribution on the Network At TSO level we have 54% of real-time data of total wind Production RNT Rede Nacional de Transporte MAT : Muito Alta Tensão (Very high Voltage) > 110 kv 150 kv, 220 kv e 400 kv. Big wind farms are connected to 150 kv e 220 kv. RND Rede Nacional de Distribuição AT : Alta Tensão (high Voltage) > 45 kv : 63 kv The majority of the wind generation will be connected to this voltage level (about 3000 MW of the 5000 MW already granted grid connection). MT : Média Tensão (Medium Voltage) > 1 kv : 6, 10, 15 e 30 kv.

21 21 EMS Applications using wind power forecast Grid security assessment We need validate the daily market The generation profile of the conventional generator comes from the market The Special Regime Production is forecasted Small hydro, thermal : the same as the day before Wind : we use the our forecast

22 22 Challenge in 2008 Wind farm with 246 MW (258 MVA) With limited grid capacity Before the first phase-shifter : 100 MVA Before the second phase-shifter : 130 MVA After the second phase-shifter : no limitation

23 Phase-shifter 23 Pedralva

24 24 Results March 2008 Production is above 1st limit (100MW) The grid assessment enabled us to grant permission to exceed the limit IST Pot.Inst. Pot.Ent. UA Pot.Limite MW

25 25 Results April 2008 The 1st phase-shifter was put in operation at 4 April New limit is 130 MW The was no need to curtail the wind farm IST Pot.Inst. Pot.Ent. UA Pot.Limite MW

26 Set points to Wind producers TSO can send Active Power : Maximum power limit Reactive Power : Reactive support (tang φ) 26 SCADA Connections Wind Control centres ENERNOVA, FINERGE (in operation) GENERG, ENERSIS (not yet) Directly to the RTU at the substation connected to REN Protocols : ICCP, 101 and 104. Distribution Network EDP - Distribuição, S.A. Goals Above 95% real-time observability

27 EMS Applications using wind power forecast 27 New list for the Contingency Analysis Simultaneous lost of the line and wind generation on the vicinity of the line due the lack of ride through fault capability

28 New Applications using wind power forecast 28 Online monitoring the existing inertia on the grid In extreme situation (off-peak load) the generation profile could be only wind and imports from Spain, no convention generation.

29 29 Thanks