Comparative Study of Forecasts
|
|
- Catherine Gaines
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 4th Meeting,, April 2007 Comparative Study of Forecasts Eng. Ana RosaTrancoso (IST) Eng. Rui Pestana (REN) Prof. José Delgado Domingos (IST) Goal Eolic Power Forecast for TSO (Transmission System Operator) Load scheduling strategy (daily basis) Dispatching decisions (hourly basis) Motivation MM5 runs 4 times per day (00,06,12,18) with 72h forecasts, 23 vertical levels and GFS 80km. Best prediction? WRF 80km? WFR 40km? 2
2 Transmission System Operator (TSO) Wind Speed Forecast 3 IST-MM5 Operacional desde Online desde x55 dx = 9 km 40x50 dx = 81 km 55x40 dx = 27 km 4
3 REN Power Forecast Persistence: 13 online parks (700 MW) Improves short time scales Correct NWP initial forecast Outages: Wind farm outages REN lines outages EDP-Distribuição lines outages 5 Forecasts with MM5 ID MM5_00 MM5_12 REN Reg Coef Coef.Reg Description MM5 D3 (9km) with GFS 80km, start at 00Z. MM5 D3 (9km) with GFS 80km, start at 12Z (uses upper air soundings data in Portugal) Combination of MM5 most recent forecasts. Stepwise regression with the 11 available forecasts for each hour. Weigthed regression of REN forecast with observed data, every 6 hours Weigthed regression of Coef forecast with observed data, every 6 hours 6
4 Stepwise Regression 1:00 6:00 7:00 12:00 18d1 18d2 00d d1 00d2 ACD ADI AGM AHF 18d1 18d2 00d d1 00d2-0.5 AIL AIT d d0 18d0 AIV d0 12d2 18d1 12d1 18d H 06d2 Nov Dez d0 00d d1 06d1 00d2 ANM APO APZ 12d2 ATD 13:00 18:00 19:00 0:00 ATE AZM ACD ADI AGM AHF 18d1 AIL AIT 12d1 18d H 06d2 Nov Dez d0 00d d1 06d1 00d2 ACD ADI AGM AHF AIL AIT AIV ANM APO APZ ATD ATE AZM 18d d0 18d0 AIV ANM d0 APO 12d2 06d1 APZ 12d2 ATD 06d1 12d1 12d0 06d2 ATE AZM 12d1 12d0 06d2 7 Stepwise Regression 1 NovDez 2006 R 2 of Regressions R^ H 06H 12H 18H Reg from 13:00-18:00 is the one with higher correlation AIV AZM ATE APZ AIL ATD ACD AIT AHF ADI ANM AGM APO Parque Park Positive Coefficients Frequency Contributions of each forecast in the regressions 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% d0 d1 d2 0% s00 s06 s12 s18 8
5 Cumulative Square Error Jan, Fev, Mar 2007 for 13 parks MM5_00 MM5_12 REN Reg Coef.Reg time Coef Increase in wind velocity! 9 Increase 24-Jan Jan Jan
6 Decrease 12-Jan Jan-2007 GOOD forecast BAD persistence BAD forecast GOOD persistence 11 Antecipated Increase 21-Jan Jan-2007 Predicted at 18h... Ocurred at 03h 12
7 Error Decomposition rmse = bias + sde = bias + sdbias + disp 2 ε = rmse = bias = ε x prd x obs 2 ε sde = σ (ε ) sdbias = σ ( x prd ) σ ( xobs ) Error Root Mean Square Error Bias Standard Deviation of Error Variability Error disp = 2σ ( x ) σ ( x )(1 r) prd obs Dispersion (phase error) Lange M. (2005). On the Uncertainty of Wind Power Predictions Analysis of the Forecast Accuracy and Statistical Distribution of Errors. Journal of Solar Energy Engineering. Vol. 127: Error Decomposition RMSE MAE RMSE BIAS SDE SDBIAS DISP Bias > 0 : underestimation RMSE ~ SDE ~ DISP : Phase Errors Hours RMSE of coef prediction increases steeply. Try to reduce with regression Decrease in RMSE near end of day (18h) higher winds 14
8 Improvement Relative to coef Relative to reg Relative to REN Coef is the best prediction Coef.reg improves sligtly (except for 13-18h) NWP forecasts better than reg at daynight transitions MM5_12 best than REN at 1-6h (which is MM5_18) MM5_00 best than REN at 13-18h (which is MM5_06) REN could be combination of MM5_00 and MM5_ Compare MM5 & WRF MM5_00 WRF_MM5_00 WRF_00 REN Coef MM5 D3 (9km) with GFS 80km, start at 00Z. WRF same conditions as MM5_00 WRF with GFS 40km Combination of MM5 most recent forecasts. Weigthed regression of REN forecast with observed data, every 6 hours 16
9 WRF & MM5 Wind Speed 10m LISBOA PORTO Top 3 LISBOA: 1º coef 2º WRF_00 3º MM5 Top 3 PORTO: 1º coef 2º WRF_MM5 3º WRF_00 17 WRF & MM5 Temperature 2m LISBOA PORTO Top 3 LISBOA: 1º coef 2º MM5 3º WRF_MM5 Top 3 PORTO: 1º coef 2º MM5 3º WRF_00 18
10 Conclusions Caution: Studied only 1st trimester of 2007 MM5 Eolic: The best prediction is clearly coef (RMSE = 45 MW (6% total)) However, if real-time observed data is not available, multi-regressing the 11 available predictions for each hour is the second best choice (reg) (RMSE=72 MW (10% total)) A small improvement of REN is verified at day-night transitions, where all pure numeric forecasts behave best. This suggests diurnal corrections. REN could be combination of only MM5_00 and MM5_12 (which have improved boundary conditions from GFS) WRF & MM5: WRF 80 km < MM5 80 km < WRF 40 km MM5 is best for temperature because is more tunned to the site. 19
Workshop on Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations. Phoenix, Arizona 19 February 2009
Workshop on Wind Forecasting Applications to Utility Planning and Operations Phoenix, Arizona 19 February 2009 Integrating Forecasting into the EMS and Control Center by the Portuguese TSO Rui Pestana
More informationSOLAR POWER FORECASTING BASED ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION, SATELLITE DATA, AND POWER MEASUREMENTS
BASED ON NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION, SATELLITE DATA, AND POWER MEASUREMENTS Detlev Heinemann, Elke Lorenz Energy Meteorology Group, Institute of Physics, Oldenburg University Workshop on Forecasting,
More informationCurrent best practice of uncertainty forecast for wind energy
Current best practice of uncertainty forecast for wind energy Dr. Matthias Lange Stochastic Methods for Management and Valuation of Energy Storage in the Future German Energy System 17 March 2016 Overview
More informationSystems Operations. PRAMOD JAIN, Ph.D. Consultant, USAID Power the Future. Astana, September, /6/2018
Systems Operations PRAMOD JAIN, Ph.D. Consultant, USAID Power the Future Astana, September, 26 2018 7/6/2018 Economics of Grid Integration of Variable Power FOOTER GOES HERE 2 Net Load = Load Wind Production
More informationAMPS Update June 2016
AMPS Update June 2016 Kevin W. Manning Jordan G. Powers Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO 11 th Antarctic Meteorological Observation,
More informationThe Center for Renewable Resource Integration at UC San Diego
The Center for Renewable Resource Integration at UC San Diego Carlos F. M. Coimbra ccoimbra@ucsd.edu; solarwind.ucsd.edu Jan Kleissl and Byron Washom UCSD Center of Excellence in Renewable Resources and
More informationModelling Wind Farm Data and the Short Term Prediction of Wind Speeds
Modelling Wind Farm Data and the Short Term Prediction of Wind Speeds An Investigation into Wind Speed Data Sets Erin Mitchell Lancaster University 6th April 2011 Outline 1 Data Considerations Overview
More informationMulti Time Scale Wind Energy Forecasting Model based on Meteorological Simulation and Onsite Measurement
Multi Time Scale Wind Energy Forecasting Model based on Meteorological Simulation and Onsite Measurement Kota ENOKI, Takeshi ISHIHARA, Atsushi YAMAGUCHI, Yukinari FUKUMOTO, The University of Tokyo Tokyo
More informationData Analytics for Solar Energy Management
Data Analytics for Solar Energy Management Lipyeow Lim1, Duane Stevens2, Sen Chiao3, Christopher Foo1, Anthony Chang2, Todd Taomae1, Carlos Andrade1, Neha Gupta1, Gabriella Santillan2, Michael Gonzalves2,
More informationValue of Forecasts in Unit Commitment Problems
Tim Schulze, Andreas Grothery and School of Mathematics Agenda Motivation Unit Commitemnt Problem British Test System Forecasts and Scenarios Rolling Horizon Evaluation Comparisons Conclusion Our Motivation
More informationExplanatory Information Analysis for Day-Ahead Price Forecasting in the Iberian Electricity Market
Energies 2015, 8, 10464-10486; doi:10.3390/en80910464 Article OPEN ACCESS energies ISSN 1996-1073 www.mdpi.com/journal/energies Explanatory Information Analysis for Day-Ahead Price Forecasting in the Iberian
More informationImportance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast
Importance of Numerical Weather Prediction in Variable Renewable Energy Forecast Dr. Abhijit Basu (Integrated Research & Action for Development) Arideep Halder (Thinkthrough Consulting Pvt. Ltd.) September
More informationThe Impact of Background Error Statistics and MODIS Winds for AMPS
The Impact of Background Error Statistics and MODIS Winds for AMPS Syed RH Rizvi, Dale M. Barker, Jordan G. Powers and Michael G. Duda National Center For Atmospheric Research NCAR/MMM, Bolder, CO-80307,
More informationA Community Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System for Calibrated Solar Irradiance
A Community Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System for Calibrated Solar Irradiance David John Gagne 1,2 Sue E. Haupt 1,3 Seth Linden 1 Gerry Wiener 1 1. NCAR RAL 2. University of Oklahoma 3. Penn State University
More informationRTO Winter Resource Adequacy Assessment Status Report
RTO Winter Resource Adequacy Assessment Status Report RAAS 03/31/2017 Background Analysis performed in response to Winter Season Resource Adequacy and Capacity Requirements problem statement. Per CP rules,
More informationPrediction of Power System Balancing Requirements and Tail Events
Prediction of Power System Balancing Requirements and Tail Events PNNL: Shuai Lu, Yuri Makarov, Alan Brothers, Craig McKinstry, Shuangshuang Jin BPA: John Pease INFORMS Annual Meeting 2012 Phoenix, AZ
More informationWind power and management of the electric system. EWEA Wind Power Forecasting 2015 Leuven, BELGIUM - 02/10/2015
Wind power and management of the electric system EWEA Wind Power Forecasting 2015 Leuven, BELGIUM - 02/10/2015 HOW WIND ENERGY IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT WHEN MANAGING ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM IN FRANCE?
More informationBelgian Wind Forecasting Phase 1
Phase 1 Users Group 09/02/2012 Pieter-Jan Marsboom v12.02.09 1 Overview 1. Context & Drivers 2. Forecast & Upscaling Model 3. Forecast Service 4. Wind Forecast Tool 5. Wind Forecast Quality 6. Challenges
More informationAalborg Universitet. CLIMA proceedings of the 12th REHVA World Congress Heiselberg, Per Kvols. Publication date: 2016
Aalborg Universitet CLIMA 2016 - proceedings of the 12th REHVA World Congress Heiselberg, Per Kvols Publication date: 2016 Document Version Final published version Link to publication from Aalborg University
More informationGefördert auf Grund eines Beschlusses des Deutschen Bundestages
Gefördert auf Grund eines Beschlusses des Deutschen Bundestages Projektträger Koordination Table of Contents 2 Introduction to the Offshore Forecasting Problem Forecast challenges and requirements The
More informationFORECASTING: A REVIEW OF STATUS AND CHALLENGES. Eric Grimit and Kristin Larson 3TIER, Inc. Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop March 5-6, 2010
SHORT-TERM TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING: A REVIEW OF STATUS AND CHALLENGES Eric Grimit and Kristin Larson 3TIER, Inc. Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop March 5-6, 2010 Integrating Renewable Energy» Variable
More informationMulti-Model Ensemble for day ahead PV power forecasting improvement
Multi-Model Ensemble for day ahead PV power forecasting improvement Cristina Cornaro a,b, Marco Pierro a,e, Francesco Bucci a, Matteo De Felice d, Enrico Maggioni c, David Moser e,alessandro Perotto c,
More informationImproving Gap Flow Simulations Near Coastal Areas of Continental Portugal
Improving Gap Flow Simulations Near Coastal Areas of Continental Portugal 11th Deep Sea Offshore Wind R&D Conference Trondheim, 22-24 January 2014 Section Met Ocean Conditions paulo.costa@lneg.pt antonio.couto@lneg.pt
More informationCOMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL
COMPARISON OF CLEAR-SKY MODELS FOR EVALUATING SOLAR FORECASTING SKILL Ricardo Marquez Mechanical Engineering and Applied Mechanics School of Engineering University of California Merced Carlos F. M. Coimbra
More informationIsabel Trigo, Sandra Freitas, Carla Barroso, Isabel Monteiro, Pedro Viterbo
Land Surface Temperature, Emissivity and Long-Wave Downwlling Fluxes from MSG Observations: current status and way forward Isabel Trigo, Sandra Freitas, Carla Barroso, Isabel Monteiro, Pedro Viterbo 1
More informationCAISO Participating Intermittent Resource Program for Wind Generation
CAISO Participating Intermittent Resource Program for Wind Generation Jim Blatchford CAISO Account Manager Agenda CAISO Market Concepts Wind Availability in California How State Supports Intermittent Resources
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2009
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 RHMS of Serbia 1. Summary of major highlights ECMWF products are operationally used in Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from the beginning of 2003.
More informationCARLOS F. M. COIMBRA (PI) HUGO T. C. PEDRO (CO-PI)
HIGH-FIDELITY SOLAR POWER FORECASTING SYSTEMS FOR THE 392 MW IVANPAH SOLAR PLANT (CSP) AND THE 250 MW CALIFORNIA VALLEY SOLAR RANCH (PV) PROJECT CEC EPC-14-008 CARLOS F. M. COIMBRA (PI) HUGO T. C. PEDRO
More informationA Unified Framework for Defining and Measuring Flexibility in Power System
J A N 1 1, 2 0 1 6, A Unified Framework for Defining and Measuring Flexibility in Power System Optimization and Equilibrium in Energy Economics Workshop Jinye Zhao, Tongxin Zheng, Eugene Litvinov Outline
More informationProper Security Criteria Determination in a Power System with High Penetration of Renewable Resources
Proper Security Criteria Determination in a Power System with High Penetration of Renewable Resources Mojgan Hedayati, Kory Hedman, and Junshan Zhang School of Electrical, Computer, and Energy Engineering
More informationWind conditions based on coupling between a mesoscale and microscale model
Wind conditions based on coupling between a mesoscale and microscale model José Laginha Palma and Carlos Veiga Rodrigues CEsA Centre for Wind Energy and Atmospheric Flows Faculty of Engineering, University
More informationWind power forecast error smoothing within a wind farm
Journal of Physics: Conference Series Wind power forecast error smoothing within a wind farm To cite this article: Nadja Saleck and Lueder von Bremen 27 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 7 1 View the article online
More informationStatistical interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output
Statistical interpretation of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output 1 2 3 Four types of errors: Systematic errors Model errors Representativeness Synoptic errors Non-systematic errors Small scale noise
More informationOperational implementation and performance evaluation of a PM10 and PM2.5 model for Santiago de Chile
Operational implementation and performance evaluation of a PM10 and PM2.5 model for Santiago de Chile Rodrigo Delgado 1*, Pablo Hernandez 2, Marcelo Mena- Carrasco 3 1 Dirección Meteorológica de Chile,
More informationFig.3.1 Dispersion of an isolated source at 45N using propagating zonal harmonics. The wave speeds are derived from a multiyear 500 mb height daily
Fig.3.1 Dispersion of an isolated source at 45N using propagating zonal harmonics. The wave speeds are derived from a multiyear 500 mb height daily data set in January. The four panels show the result
More informationSolar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models
Senior Project Proposal 2102490 Year 2016 Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models Vichaya Layanun ID 5630550721 Advisor: Assist. Prof. Jitkomut Songsiri
More informationLOAD FORECASTING APPLICATIONS for THE ENERGY SECTOR
LOAD FORECASTING APPLICATIONS for THE ENERGY SECTOR Boris Bizjak, Univerza v Mariboru, FERI 26.2.2016 1 A) Short-term load forecasting at industrial plant Ravne: Load forecasting using linear regression,
More informationCalifornia Independent System Operator (CAISO) Challenges and Solutions
California Independent System Operator (CAISO) Challenges and Solutions Presented by Brian Cummins Manager, Energy Management Systems - CAISO California ISO by the numbers 65,225 MW of power plant capacity
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products in Austria
Application and verification of ECMWF products in Austria Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna Alexander Kann 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range weather forecasts in
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2009
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2009 Hungarian Meteorological Service 1. Summary of major highlights The objective verification of ECMWF forecasts have been continued on all the time ranges
More informationIncreased wind power forecast skill due to improved NWP in the last decade
Increased wind power forecast skill due to improved NWP in the last decade Lueder von Bremen ForWind Center for Wind Energy Research of the Universities Oldenburg, Hannover und Bremen EWEA Workshop on
More informationpeak half-hourly New South Wales
Forecasting long-term peak half-hourly electricity demand for New South Wales Dr Shu Fan B.S., M.S., Ph.D. Professor Rob J Hyndman B.Sc. (Hons), Ph.D., A.Stat. Business & Economic Forecasting Unit Report
More informationCharacterization of the solar irradiation field for the Trentino region in the Alps
Characterization of the solar irradiation field for the Trentino region in the Alps L. Laiti*, L. Giovannini and D. Zardi Atmospheric Physics Group University of Trento - Italy outline of the talk Introduction
More informationGL Garrad Hassan Short term power forecasts for large offshore wind turbine arrays
GL Garrad Hassan Short term power forecasts for large offshore wind turbine arrays Require accurate wind (and hence power) forecasts for 4, 24 and 48 hours in the future for trading purposes. Receive 4
More informationA SOLAR AND WIND INTEGRATED FORECAST TOOL (SWIFT) DESIGNED FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY VARIABILITY ON HAWAIIAN GRID SYSTEMS
ALBANY BARCELONA BANGALORE ICEM 2015 June 26, 2015 Boulder, CO A SOLAR AND WIND INTEGRATED FORECAST TOOL (SWIFT) DESIGNED FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY VARIABILITY ON HAWAIIAN GRID SYSTEMS JOHN
More informationAnemos.Rulez: Extreme Event Prediction and Alarming to Support Stability of Energy Grids
Anemos.Rulez: Extreme Event Prediction and Alarming to Support Stability of Energy Grids Hans-Peter (Igor) Waldl, Philipp Brandt Overspeed GmbH & Co. KG, Marie-Curie-Straße 1, 26129 Oldenburg, Germany,
More informationAn Integrated Approach to the Prediction of Weather, Renewable Energy Generation and Energy Demand in Vermont
1 An Integrated Approach to the Prediction of Weather, Renewable Energy Generation and Energy Demand in Vermont James P. Cipriani IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center Yorktown Heights, NY Other contributors
More informationKasemsan Manomaiphiboon
Wind Forecasting in Thailand Kasemsan Manomaiphiboon kasemsan_m@jgsee.kmutt.ac.th The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE) King Mongkut s University it of Technology Thonburi (KMUTT)
More informationBasic Verification Concepts
Basic Verification Concepts Barbara Brown National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder Colorado USA bgb@ucar.edu May 2017 Berlin, Germany Basic concepts - outline What is verification? Why verify?
More informationSolar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models
Senior Project Proposal 2102499 Year 2016 Solar irradiance forecasting for Chulalongkorn University location using time series models Vichaya Layanun ID 5630550721 Advisor: Assist. Prof. Jitkomut Songsiri
More informationTemporal Wind Variability and Uncertainty
Temporal Wind Variability and Uncertainty Nicholas A. Brown Iowa State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering May 1, 2014 1 An Experiment at Home One Cup of Coffee We Can All Do
More informationAccuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather regimes
Accuracy of near real time updates in wind power forecasting with regard to different weather regimes Nadja Saleck 1, Florian Bertsch 2, Lüder von Bremen 1, Detlev Heinemann 1 1 ForWind, University of
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2016
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 RHMS of Serbia 1 Summary of major highlights ECMWF forecast products became the backbone in operational work during last several years. Starting from
More informationPower System Seminar Presentation Wind Forecasting and Dispatch 7 th July, Wind Power Forecasting tools and methodologies
Power System Seminar Presentation Wind Forecasting and Dispatch 7 th July, 2011 Wind Power Forecasting tools and methodologies Amanda Kelly Principal Engineer Power System Operational Planning Operations
More informationGFAS Methodology & Results
GFAS Methodology & Results Johannes W. Kaiser, Imke Hüser, Berit Gehrke Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, DE Tadas Nikonovas, Weidong Xu, Martin G. Wooster King s College London, UK Ioannis Bistinas,
More informationDeveloping a Mathematical Model Based on Weather Parameters to Predict the Daily Demand for Electricity
- Vol. L, No. 02, pp. [49-57], 2017 The Institution of Engineers, Sri Lanka Developing a Mathematical Model Based on Weather Parameters to Predict the Daily Demand for Electricity W.D.A.S. Wijayapala,
More informationwind power forecasts
wind power forecasts the user friendly forecast studio about aiolos users Aiolos is Vitec s market-leading tool for effective management for all of your forecasts. With Aiolos it is possible to predict
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products in Austria
Application and verification of ECMWF products in Austria Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna Alexander Kann 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range weather forecasts in
More informationOperations Report. Tag B. Short, Director South Region Operations. Entergy Regional State Committee (ERSC) February 14, 2018
Operations Report Tag B. Short, Director South Region Operations Entergy Regional State Committee (ERSC) February 14, 2018 1 Winter Operations Highlights South Region Max Gen Event Regional Dispatch Transfer
More informationRecent Advances in Solving AC OPF & Robust UC
Recent Advances in Solving AC OPF & Robust UC Andy Sun Georgia Institute of Technology (andy.sun@isye.gatech.edu) PSERC Webinar Oct 17, 2017 Major Challenges Non-convexity: Discrete decisions: On/off operational/maintenance
More informationTom Durrant Frank Woodcock. Diana Greenslade
Tom Durrant Frank Woodcock Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Bureau of Meteorology Melbourne, VIC Australia Motivation/Application techniques have been found to be very useful in operational
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products in Austria
Application and verification of ECMWF products in Austria Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG), Vienna Alexander Kann, Klaus Stadlbacher 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range
More informationUSE OF FUZZY LOGIC TO INVESTIGATE WEATHER PARAMETER IMPACT ON ELECTRICAL LOAD BASED ON SHORT TERM FORECASTING
Nigerian Journal of Technology (NIJOTECH) Vol. 35, No. 3, July 2016, pp. 562 567 Copyright Faculty of Engineering, University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Print ISSN: 0331-8443, Electronic ISSN: 2467-8821 www.nijotech.com
More informationVerification of Renewable Energy Forecasts
Verification of Renewable Energy Forecasts Pierre Pinson Technical University of Denmark. DTU Electrical Engineering - Centre for Electric Power and Energy mail: ppin@dtu.dk - webpage: www.pierrepinson.com
More informationAnalysis on selected geo-effective events using observations and models at Space Environment Prediction Center
Analysis on selected geo-effective events using observations and models at Space Environment Prediction Center Siqing Liu, Ercha Aa, Qiuzhen Zhong, Bingxian Luo, Zhitao Li, Jingjing Wang, and Jiancun Gong
More informationWater vapour above Switzerland over the last 12 years
Water vapour above Switzerland over the last 12 years June Morland*, Martine Collaud**, Klemens Hocke*, Pierre Jeannet**, Christian Mätzler* *Institute of Applied Physics, University of Bern **MeteoSwiss
More informationAllison Monarski, University of Maryland Masters Scholarly Paper, December 6, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science
Allison Monarski, University of Maryland Masters Scholarly Paper, December 6, 2011 1 Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Verification of Model Output Statistics forecasts associated with the
More informationCONTROL AND OPTIMIZATION IN SMART-GRIDS
CONTROL AND OPTIMIZATION IN SMART-GRIDS Fredy Ruiz Ph.D. Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Colombia Visiting Profesor - ruizf@javeriana.edu.co May, 2018 Course topics Session 1: Introduction to Power systems
More informationThe document was not produced by the CAISO and therefore does not necessarily reflect its views or opinion.
Version No. 1.0 Version Date 2/25/2008 Externally-authored document cover sheet Effective Date: 4/03/2008 The purpose of this cover sheet is to provide attribution and background information for documents
More informationStatus report on DA for AROME-PT2. Maria Monteiro
Status report on DA for AROME-PT2 Maria Monteiro LACE Data Assimilation Working Days & ALADIN Data Assimilation basic KIT Working Days Bucarest, 19 Sept 2018 Topics 1. Operational setup IPMA A Assimilação
More informationCost of Inflow Forecast Uncertainty for Day Ahead Hydropower Production Scheduling
Cost of Inflow Forecast Uncertainty for Day Ahead Hydropower Production Scheduling HEPEX 10 th University Workshop June 25 th, 2014 NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Thomas D. Veselka and Les Poch Argonne
More informationOptimization of the forecasting of wind energy production Focus on the day ahead forecast
Optimization of the forecasting of wind energy production Focus on the day ahead forecast Market Processes, EnBW Transportnetze AG Mirjam Eppinger, Dietmar Graeber, Andreas Semmig Quantitative Methods,
More informationCOSMIC GPS Radio Occultation and
An Impact Study of FORMOSAT-3/ COSMIC GPS Radio Occultation and Dropsonde Data on WRF Simulations 27 Mei-yu season Fang-Ching g Chien Department of Earth Sciences Chien National and Taiwan Kuo (29), Normal
More informationInternational Workshop on Wind Energy Development Cairo, Egypt. ERCOT Wind Experience
International Workshop on Wind Energy Development Cairo, Egypt ERCOT Wind Experience March 22, 21 Joel Mickey Direcr of Grid Operations Electric Reliability Council of Texas jmickey@ercot.com ERCOT 2 2
More informationWinter Season Resource Adequacy Analysis Status Report
Winter Season Resource Adequacy Analysis Status Report Tom Falin Director Resource Adequacy Planning Markets & Reliability Committee October 26, 2017 Winter Risk Winter Season Resource Adequacy and Capacity
More informationNeeds for Flexibility Caused by the Variability and Uncertainty in Wind and Solar Generation in 2020, 2030 and 2050 Scenarios
Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Jan 12, 2019 Needs for Flexibility Caused by the Variability and Uncertainty in Wind and Solar Generation in 2020, 2030 and 2050 Scenarios Koivisto, Matti Juhani; Sørensen,
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2008
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2008 RHMS of Serbia 1. Summary of major highlights ECMWF products are operationally used in Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia from the beginning of 2003.
More informationA COMPARISON OF VERY SHORT-TERM QPF S FOR SUMMER CONVECTION OVER COMPLEX TERRAIN AREAS, WITH THE NCAR/ATEC WRF AND MM5-BASED RTFDDA SYSTEMS
A COMPARISON OF VERY SHORT-TERM QPF S FOR SUMMER CONVECTION OVER COMPLEX TERRAIN AREAS, WITH THE NCAR/ATEC WRF AND MM5-BASED RTFDDA SYSTEMS Wei Yu, Yubao Liu, Tom Warner, Randy Bullock, Barbara Brown and
More informationCalibration with MOS at DWD
Calibration with MOS at DWD ECMWF Calibration Meeting 12 February 2015 Reinhold Hess, Jenny Glashof, Cristina Primo Deutscher Wetterdienst Calibration with MOS at DWD Outline Overview of MOS Systems at
More informationChapter 6 Impact of Stochastic Renewable Energy Generation on Market Quantities 6.1 Introduction
Chapter 6 Impact of Stochastic Renewable Energy Generation on Market Quantities 6.1 Introduction One of the most traditional systems for the commercial exchange of electricity production from stochastic
More informationProbabilistic forecasting of solar radiation
Probabilistic forecasting of solar radiation Dr Adrian Grantham School of Information Technology and Mathematical Sciences School of Engineering 7 September 2017 Acknowledgements Funding: Collaborators:
More informationShort-Term Demand Forecasting Methodology for Scheduling and Dispatch
Short-Term Demand Forecasting Methodology for Scheduling and Dispatch V1.0 March 2018 Table of Contents 1 Introduction... 3 2 Historical Jurisdictional Demand Data... 3 3 EMS Demand Forecast... 4 3.1 Manual
More informationIntegration of WindSim s Forecasting Module into an Existing Multi-Asset Forecasting Framework
Chad Ringley Manager of Atmospheric Modeling Integration of WindSim s Forecasting Module into an Existing Multi-Asset Forecasting Framework 26 JUNE 2014 2014 WINDSIM USER S MEETING TONSBERG, NORWAY SAFE
More informationCALIOPE forecasts evaluated by DELTA
www.bsc.es CALIOPE forecasts evaluated by DELTA Mª Teresa Pay, José Mª Baldasano, Gustavo Arévalo, Valentina Sicardi, Kim Serradell, and CALIOPE team WG1 Assessment CCA: Forecast FAIRMODE Technical Meeting.
More informationValidation of annual wind energy production estimates using the WRF model at 50 wind farms
Validation of annual wind energy production estimates using the WRF model at 50 wind farms Mark Žagar, Sven-Jesper Knudsen Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Aarhus, Denmark ICEM2015, June 23, 2015 Estimating future
More informationState Space Models for Wind Forecast Correction
for Wind Forecast Correction Valérie 1 Pierre Ailliot 2 Anne Cuzol 1 1 Université de Bretagne Sud 2 Université de Brest MAS - 2008/28/08 Outline 1 2 Linear Model : an adaptive bias correction Non Linear
More informationAerosol optical properties assimilation from low earth orbiting and geostationary satellites: Impacts on regional forecasts
Aerosol optical properties assimilation from low earth orbiting and geostationary satellites: Impacts on regional forecasts Pablo Saide, Greg Carmichael, University of Iowa, Center for Global and Regional
More informationTowards a Bankable Solar Resource
Towards a Bankable Solar Resource Adam Kankiewicz WindLogics Inc. SOLAR 2010 Phoenix, Arizona May 20, 2010 Outline NextEra/WindLogics Solar Development Lessons learned TMY - Caveat Emptor Discussion 2
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2015
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2015 Turkish State Meteorological Service Unal TOKA,Yelis CENGIZ 1. Summary of major highlights The verification of ECMWF products has continued as in previous
More informationWeather Forecasting: Lecture 2
Weather Forecasting: Lecture 2 Dr. Jeremy A. Gibbs Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Utah Spring 2017 1 / 40 Overview 1 Forecasting Techniques 2 Forecast Tools 2 / 40 Forecasting Techniques
More informationCurrent and Future Impacts of Wildfires on PM 2.5, Health, and Policy in the Rocky Mountains
Current and Future Impacts of Wildfires on PM 2.5, Health, and Policy in the Rocky Mountains Yang Liu, Ph.D. STAR Grants Kick-off Meeting Research Triangle Park, NC April 5, 2017 Motivation The Rocky Mountains
More informationForecasting of icing for wind power applications. Øyvind Byrkjedal, Johan Hansson and Henrik van der Velde
Forecasting of icing for wind power applications Øyvind Byrkjedal, Johan Hansson and Henrik van der Velde oyvind.byrkjedal@vindteknikk.no EWEA Wind Power Forecasting, Leuven, Belgium, 1-2 October 2015
More informationMulti-Area Stochastic Unit Commitment for High Wind Penetration in a Transmission Constrained Network
Multi-Area Stochastic Unit Commitment for High Wind Penetration in a Transmission Constrained Network Anthony Papavasiliou Center for Operations Research and Econometrics Université catholique de Louvain,
More informationResearch and application of locational wind forecasting in the UK
1 Research and application of locational wind forecasting in the UK Dr Jethro Browell EPSRC Research Fellow University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK jethro.browell@strath.ac.uk 2 Acknowledgements Daniel
More informationForecasting of Renewable Power Generations
Forecasting of Renewable Power Generations By Dr. S.N. Singh, Professor Department of Electrical Engineering Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur-2816, INDIA. Email: snsingh@iitk.ac.in 4-12-215 Side 1
More informationWind energy production backcasts based on a high-resolution reanalysis dataset
Wind energy production backcasts based on a high-resolution reanalysis dataset Liu, S., Gonzalez, L. H., Foley, A., & Leahy, P. (2018). Wind energy production backcasts based on a highresolution reanalysis
More informationApplication of Probability Density Function - Optimal Interpolation in Hourly Gauge-Satellite Merged Precipitation Analysis over China
Application of Probability Density Function - Optimal Interpolation in Hourly Gauge-Satellite Merged Precipitation Analysis over China Yan Shen, Yang Pan, Jingjing Yu National Meteorological Information
More informationApplication and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007
Application and verification of the ECMWF products Report 2007 National Meteorological Administration Romania 1. Summary of major highlights The medium range forecast activity within the National Meteorological
More informationInternational Studies about the Grid Integration of Wind Generation
International Studies about the Grid Integration of Wind Generation Dr.-Ing. Markus Pöller/DIgSILENT GmbH Internation Studies About Grid Integration of Wind Generation Grid Integration of Wind Generationin
More informationWind power forecasting accuracy and uncertainty in Finland. Hannele Holttinen Jari Miettinen Samuli Sillanpää
SEARCH 95 O HL I G H T S VI S I Hannele Holttinen Jari Miettinen Samuli Sillanpää G Wind power forecasting accuracy and uncertainty in Finland HI NS SC I E N CE T HNOLOG RE Wind power forecasting accuracy
More information