Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Water Levels. Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P.E.
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1 Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Water Levels Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P.E. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The Ohio State University Changing Climate Seminar Series May 10, 2011
2 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction
3 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations
4 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level models
5 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level models 4 Water Level forecasts
6 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level models 4 Water Level forecasts
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14 Rank Port State Total cargo volume (million tons)
15 Rank Port State Total cargo volume (million tons) 1 South Louisiana LA 213
16 Rank Port State Total cargo volume (million tons) 1 South Louisiana LA Houston TX New York and New Jersey NY/NJ Long Beach CA 73 5 Corpus Christi TX 68 6 New Orleans LA 68 7 Beaumont TX 68 8 Huntington-Tristate OH/KY/WV 59 9 Los Angeles CA Hampton Roads VA 58
17 Rank Port State Total cargo volume (million tons) 1 South Louisiana LA Houston TX New York and New Jersey NY/NJ Long Beach CA 73 5 Corpus Christi TX 68 6 New Orleans LA 68 7 Beaumont TX 68 8 Huntington-Tristate OH/KY/WV 59 9 Los Angeles CA Hampton Roads VA Duluth/Superior MN/WI 30
18 Rank Port State Total cargo volume (million tons) 1 South Louisiana LA Houston TX New York and New Jersey NY/NJ Long Beach CA 73 5 Corpus Christi TX 68 6 New Orleans LA 68 7 Beaumont TX 68 8 Huntington-Tristate OH/KY/WV 59 9 Los Angeles CA Hampton Roads VA Duluth/Superior MN/WI Chicago IL 19 Table: United States busiest ports ranked by gross tonnage for the calendar year 2009.
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21 Name Country Surface area Volume (km 2 ) (mi 2 ) (km 3 ) (mi 3 ) Caspian Sea Multiple 371, ,000 78,200 18,800 Michigan Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2, Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23, 5,700 Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2, Malawi Multiple 30,044 11, 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2, Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9, Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9, Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1, Table: Water volume and surface areas of the earth s twelve highest surface area continental water bodies.
22 Name Country Surface area Volume (km 2 ) (mi 2 ) (km 3 ) (mi 3 ) Caspian Sea Multiple 371, ,000 78,200 18,800 Michigan Huron U.S. and Canada 117,702 45,445 8,458 2,029 Superior U.S. and Canada 82,414 31,820 12,100 2,900 Victoria Multiple 69,485 26,828 2, Tanganyika Multiple 32,893 12,700 18,900 4,500 Baikal Russia 31,500 12,200 23, 5,700 Great Bear Lake Canada 31,080 12,000 2, Malawi Multiple 30,044 11, 8,400 2,000 Great Slave Lake Canada 28,930 11,170 2, Erie U.S. and Canada 25,719 9, Winnipeg Canada 23,553 9, Ontario U.S. and Canada 19,477 7,520 1, Table: Water volume and surface areas of the earth s twelve highest surface area continental water bodies.
23 : take home messages Introduction
24 Introduction: take home messages Great lakes - largest freshwater resource system in the world
25 Introduction: take home messages Great lakes - largest freshwater resource system in the world Supports significant population and economy
26 Introduction: take home messages Great lakes - largest freshwater resource system in the world Supports significant population and economy Collectively managed and utilized by two nations
27 Introduction: take home messages Great lakes - largest freshwater resource system in the world Supports significant population and economy Collectively managed and utilized by two nations Benchmark for adaptive management and hydroclimate research
28 Outline Introduction Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level models 4 Water Level forecasts
29 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables
30 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables
31 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables
32 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables
33 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables
34 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Water levels: observations (long-term) 185 Water level (meters, IGLD85) Water level (feet, IGLD85) Year
35 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Water levels: observations (long-term) Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Superior Water level (feet, IGLD85) Year
36 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Water levels: observations (long-term) Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Superior Water level (feet, IGLD85) Year
37 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Water levels: observations (long-term) Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Superior Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Lake Ontario Water level (feet, IGLD85) Year
38 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Water levels: observations (long-term) Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Superior Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Lake Ontario Water level (feet, IGLD85) Year
39 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Water levels: observations (long-term) Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Superior Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Lake Ontario Water level (feet, IGLD85) Year
40 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Water Levels: observations (short-term)
41 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Water Levels: observations (short-term)
42 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables : take home messages
43 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables : take home messages Great lakes water levels spatial and temporal scales
44 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables : take home messages Great lakes water levels spatial and temporal scales Multiple sources of uncertainty and variability
45 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables : take home messages Great lakes water levels spatial and temporal scales Multiple sources of uncertainty and variability No single factor (natural or non-natural) explains it all
46 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables : take home messages Great lakes water levels spatial and temporal scales Multiple sources of uncertainty and variability No single factor (natural or non-natural) explains it all Can we relate, reproduce, and predict using models?
47 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Great Lakes hydrologic cycle
48 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Great Lakes hydrologic cycle
49 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Precipitation 185 Water level (meters, IGLD85) Water level (feet, IGLD85) Year
50 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Precipitation Water level (meters, IGLD85) Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Year
51 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Precipitation Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
52 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Precipitation Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
53 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Evaporation 185 Water level (meters, IGLD85) Water level (feet, IGLD85) Year
54 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Evaporation Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Water level (feet, IGLD85) Average annual over lake evaporation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
55 Water level observations Climate and meteorological variables Evaporation Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Water level (feet, IGLD85) Average annual over lake evaporation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
56 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level models 4 Water Level forecasts
57 Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Daily Meteorological Data Daily precipitation, air temperature for over-land stations. Evapotranspiration model input: dew point, wind speed, cloud cover. Thiessen Polygon Software Computes spatial averages of meteorological data for subbasins and over-lakes Over-lake and Subbasin Averages Over-lake averages (air temp, dew point, wind speed, cloud cover). Subbasin and over-lake averages for air temperature and precipitation. Lake Thermodynamics Model Heat storage, water temperature, and evaporation calculated. Large Basin Runoff Model Daily moisture storage and runoff calculated. Over-lake Average Heat storage, water temperature, evaporation. Subbasin Average Daily moisture storage, runoff. Net Basin Supply Calculations NBS = Runoff + Precipitation - Evaporation Lake Routing and Regulation Model Translates net basin supplies to lake levels and connecting channel fl ows. Predicted Water Levels
58 Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Daily Meteorological Data Daily precipitation, air temperature for over-land stations. Evapotranspiration model input: dew point, wind speed, cloud cover. Thiessen Polygon Software Computes spatial averages of meteorological data for subbasins and over-lakes Over-lake and Subbasin Averages Over-lake averages (air temp, dew point, wind speed, cloud cover). Subbasin and over-lake averages for air temperature and precipitation. Lake Thermodynamics Model Heat storage, water temperature, and evaporation calculated. Large Basin Runoff Model Daily moisture storage and runoff calculated. Over-lake Average Heat storage, water temperature, evaporation. Subbasin Average Daily moisture storage, runoff. Net Basin Supply Calculations NBS = Runoff + Precipitation - Evaporation Lake Routing and Regulation Model Translates net basin supplies to lake levels and connecting channel fl ows. Predicted Water Levels
59 Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Daily Meteorological Data Daily precipitation, air temperature for over-land stations. Evapotranspiration model input: dew point, wind speed, cloud cover. Thiessen Polygon Software Computes spatial averages of meteorological data for subbasins and over-lakes Over-lake and Subbasin Averages Over-lake averages (air temp, dew point, wind speed, cloud cover). Subbasin and over-lake averages for air temperature and precipitation. Lake Thermodynamics Model Heat storage, water temperature, and evaporation calculated. Large Basin Runoff Model Daily moisture storage and runoff calculated. Over-lake Average Heat storage, water temperature, evaporation. Subbasin Average Daily moisture storage, runoff. Net Basin Supply Calculations NBS = Runoff + Precipitation - Evaporation Lake Routing and Regulation Model Translates net basin supplies to lake levels and connecting channel fl ows. Predicted Water Levels
60 Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Daily Meteorological Data Daily precipitation, air temperature for over-land stations. Evapotranspiration model input: dew point, wind speed, cloud cover. Thiessen Polygon Software Computes spatial averages of meteorological data for subbasins and over-lakes Over-lake and Subbasin Averages Over-lake averages (air temp, dew point, wind speed, cloud cover). Subbasin and over-lake averages for air temperature and precipitation. Lake Thermodynamics Model Heat storage, water temperature, and evaporation calculated. Large Basin Runoff Model Daily moisture storage and runoff calculated. Over-lake Average Heat storage, water temperature, evaporation. Subbasin Average Daily moisture storage, runoff. Net Basin Supply Calculations NBS = Runoff + Precipitation - Evaporation Lake Routing and Regulation Model Translates net basin supplies to lake levels and connecting channel fl ows. Predicted Water Levels
61 Water level (meters, IGLD85) month forecast 90% prediction interval 3 month forecast 90% prediction interval Observed monthly average water level Lake Superior Lakes Michigan Huron Lake St. Clair Lake Erie
62 Water level (meters, IGLD85) month forecast 90% prediction interval 3 month forecast 90% prediction interval Observed monthly average water level Lake Superior Lakes Michigan Huron Lake St. Clair Lake Erie
63 Water level (meters, IGLD85) month forecast 90% prediction interval 3 month forecast 90% prediction interval Observed monthly average water level Lake Superior Lakes Michigan Huron Lake St. Clair Lake Erie
64 Water level (meters, IGLD85) month forecast 90% prediction interval 3 month forecast 90% prediction interval Observed monthly average water level Lake Superior Lakes Michigan Huron Lake St. Clair Lake Erie
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67 Outline Introduction 1 Introduction 2 Water level observations 3 Water level models 4 Water Level forecasts
68 Climate forecasts Water level (meters, IGLD85) Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Year
69 Climate forecasts Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
70 Climate forecasts Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie (from P. Chao, 1999) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient Hadley Center Transient Max Planck Institute Transient Canadian Climate Centre Transient Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
71 Climate forecasts Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie (from P. Chao, 1999) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient Hadley Center Transient Max Planck Institute Transient Canadian Climate Centre Transient Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
72 Climate forecasts Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie (from P. Chao, 1999) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient Hadley Center Transient Max Planck Institute Transient Canadian Climate Centre Transient Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
73 Climate forecasts Lake Superior Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie (from P. Chao, 1999) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Transient Hadley Center Transient Max Planck Institute Transient Canadian Climate Centre Transient Water level (feet, IGLD85) Basin precipitation (mm) Lake Ontario Year
74 Water level forecasts From: Hayhoe, et al., (2010)
75 Water level forecasts Lake Superior (from Hayhoe, et al., 2010) SRES B1 low emissions SRES A1fi high emissions Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Water level (feet, IGLD85) Lake Ontario Year
76 Water level forecasts Lake Superior (from Hayhoe, et al., 2010) SRES B1 low emissions SRES A1fi high emissions Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Water level (feet, IGLD85) Lake Ontario Year
77 Water level forecasts Lake Superior (from Hayhoe, et al., 2010) SRES B1 low emissions SRES A1fi high emissions Water level (meters, IGLD85) Lake Michigan and Huron Lake Erie Water level (feet, IGLD85) Lake Ontario Year
78 Water level forecasts From: Angel and Kunkel (2010)
79 Conclusions Introduction
80 Conclusions Properly acknowledge variability and uncertainty in models and put them within the context of short and long term patterns
81 Conclusions Properly acknowledge variability and uncertainty in models and put them within the context of short and long term patterns
82 Conclusions Properly acknowledge variability and uncertainty in models and put them within the context of short and long term patterns others
83 Acknowledgements Introduction
84 Acknowledgements Tim Hunter, Anne Clites, Cathy Darnell, Brent Lofgren and Craig Stow (NOAA GLERL)
85 Acknowledgements Tim Hunter, Anne Clites, Cathy Darnell, Brent Lofgren and Craig Stow (NOAA GLERL) Frank Quinn, Tom Croley
86 Acknowledgements Tim Hunter, Anne Clites, Cathy Darnell, Brent Lofgren and Craig Stow (NOAA GLERL) Frank Quinn, Tom Croley
87 Acknowledgements Tim Hunter, Anne Clites, Cathy Darnell, Brent Lofgren and Craig Stow (NOAA GLERL) Frank Quinn, Tom Croley NOAA, USEPA, and Duke University
88 Climate Change Impacts on Great Lakes Water Levels Andrew Gronewold, Ph.D., P.E. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration The Ohio State University Changing Climate Seminar Series May 10, 2011
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