Impact of climate change on freshwater resources in the Changjiang river basin
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1 Impact of climate change on freshwater resources in the Changjiang river basin Wenfa Yang, Yan Huang Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, MWR, China April,2009
2 Objective To identify the trend change and spatial distribution of observed data set (rainfall, temperature, runoff etc.) over the period of in Changjiang River Basin Develop simplified hydrological models, using the latest 24 GCMs outputs, to: detect the trend of future temperature and rainfall, and simulate possible impact of future climate scenarios on the runoff in the coming 100 years
3 Data Meteorological data: temperature (37 stations) and rainfall(174 stations), daily observed data, Hydrological data: Yichang, Hankou and Datong station, since the start of observation, unit: mm/a Grid data (temperature and precipitation) covering Changjiang (Yangtze) River basin in different emission scenarios (A2,A1B,B2) of the 24 Global Climate Models (GCMs) (that has been used in the fourth IPCC assessment report) are collected.
4 Data process Daily observed rainfall annual areal rainfall for different (sub)-basins Temperature observation annual areal temperature (using Thissen Polygon method), apply interpolation using correlation-ship at the nearest neighbour station for missing data Analyze the difference of spatial distribution on the GIS platform
5 Area: around 1,700,000 Km2 distribution of the 174 rainfall gauges in Changjiang River basin Upper Basin Area: around 1,000,000 Km2 Spatial distribution of the 38 temperature gauges in Changjiang River basin & the correlative divided area with Thiessen Polygon method
6 Methodology to analysis the change trend Linear regress method: Temporal trend of yearly rainfall, temperature and runoff data for ˆ x t = α 0 + α 1 Mann-Kendall test: To assess the significance of trend in hydrological time series: insignificant trend if M <Ma/2, where confidence level α=0.05, Ma/2 =1.96 Otherwise trend is significant. t
7 Results
8 Rainfall Rai nf al l / mm/a Year l y ar eal aver age r ai nf al l Aver age r ai nf al l Li near ( Year l y ar eal aver age r ai nf al l ) 900 The Changjiang River basin year The statistic of annual rainfall and temperature in Changjiang River basin during Item Rainfall Temperature Area Changjiang river basin The Upper basin The Middle Lower basin Changjiang river basin The Upper basin The Middle Lower basin Is Mann- Kendall test accepted? decreasing (no) decreasing (yes) decreasing (no) Increasing (yes) Increasing (yes) Increasing (yes) Average change rate mm/10yr mm/10yr -5.4 mm/10yr 0.1 o C/10yr 0.1 o C/10yr 0.1 o C/10yr M-K test Note:The above statistic results are based on the observed data during the period 1951~2005, M-k value is tested by Mann-Kendall method, M-k Value 1.96 represents the trend is not significant in the confidence of 95%,if not, trend is significant.
9 Spatial distribution of annual total rainfall for 174 stations during in the Changjiang river basin (unit: mm/yr) Spatial distribution of average rainfall change rate (unit:mm/10yr ) for 174 stations during in the Changjiang river basin
10 Spatial distribution of average change rate of yearly total rainy days for 174 stations during (unit: days/10yr) Spatial distribution of average change rate of Yearly total rainstorm days for 174 stations during (unit: days/10yr)
11 Temperature Spatial distribution of yearly average temperature for 37 stations during in the Changjiang river basin (unit: C) Spatial distribution of average temperature change rate (unit: C /10yr ) for 37 stations during in the Changjiang river basin
12 Runoff: The upstream of Datong station (the whole Changjiang river basin, ) Yearly runoff Linear (Yearly runoff ) Average runoff/mm/a y = x R 2 = Note: M-K value Insignificant: -1.96~1.96 Significant: Otherwise Period Year Average change rate(mm/10yr) M-K value Is Mann- Kendall test accepted? 1950~ No 1950~ No 1950~ No 1950~ No 1950~ No
13 The Upper stream of Yichang gauge, annual runoff, yearly runoff/mm/a yearly runoff Linear (yearly runoff) y = x R 2 = Period Average change rate (mm/10yr) Year M-K test Is Mann-Kendall test accepted? 1881~ No 1881~ No 1881~ No 1881~ Yes 1881~ Yes 1881~ Yes 1881~ Yes
14 The middle stream catchment between Datong and Yichang, annual net runoff, Yearly runoff/mm/a Yearly runoff Linear (Yearly runoff ) y = x R 2 = Period Year Average change rate (mm/10yr) M-K test Is Mann-Kendall test accepted? 1950~ No 1950~ No 1950~ No 1950~ No 1950~ No 1950~ No
15 Conclusions Rainfall Change (based on observed data ) For the Changjiang river basin no significant change of rainfall For upper basin, significant decreasing of rainfall was observed High spatial variability in the basin Annual total rain days tends to decrease, at a rate of 2.5d/10yr (most significant at Upper-Middle Changjiang river) Increasing annual rainstorm days in most parts of Changjiang River basin
16 Conclusions Temperature (Based on observed data of ) Obvious temperature increasing observed in the whole basin except some parts of the Upper Changjiang, such as Heilongjiang area Minimum temperature increased for the whole basin except for west parts of Changjiang basin
17 Conclusions Runoff Insignificant decreasing of annual runoff was observed for the basin as a whole with a rate of -2.2 mm/10yr (based on Datong station) Reduction of runoff is observed as significant at Yichang station (at a rage of -3.5 mm/10yr)
18 Projected Hydrological change
19 Hydrological model: Simplified water-balance model The hydrological time series of year An assumption that the fluctuation in annual river basin storage volume ( ΔS 0) is approximate to zero Δt Simplified water balance equation: ETa WB The monthly potential evapotranspiration estimated by applying the Blaney-Criddle empirical method ET The Pike empirical formula p Q = k a = P * μ * (0.46 * T ) ET a = P [ 1 + ( P ET ) p 2 ] 0. 5
20 Hydrological model: Statistical model Taking into consideration of the nonlinear relationship between the water resources system and climate changes, the nonlinear regression model are developed The multiple regression equation is used to establish the mathematical statistical relation model between the runoff (in depth), and the precipitation and areal average temperature. The upstream area: LnR = LnP T The middle and lower stream area: LnR = LnP T The entire river basin: LnR = LnP T
21 Model verification Table 1 Statistics of the simulated and observed runoff for the statistical model and simplified water-balance model in Changjiang River basin Regions River basin above Datong River basin above Yichang Intervening area from Yichang to Datong Models Statistical model Simplified water balance model Statistical model Simplified water balance model Statistical model Simplified water balance model r R RMSE Note: the unit of RMSE is mm/year The evaporation estimation is analyzed to be main uncertainty sources
22 Future Precipitation change Scenarios: A2, A1B, B1 Insignificant decreasing during 2010~2020 Slight increasing during 2020~2040 Significant increasing after 2050 For 2010~2100: the average increase of projected precipitation for the different emission scenarios is around 8~13mm(A2) and 12~ 14mm(A1B)and 4~8mm(B1)respectively over the period of 10 years. MK 统计值 A1B A2 B 年 A1B A2 B 年 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B 年年限 年 A1B A2 B 年
23 Temperature change Obvious increase!!!! (0.1 ~ 0.5 o C/10 yr) MK 统计值 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B1 A1B A2 B 年 年 年年限 年 年
24 Projected hydrological change in Changjiang River basin (2001~2100), Runoff (mm/year) at Datong station Scenarios Time period Model name statistic Water balance statistic Water balance statistic Water balance statistic Water balance statistic Water balance A1B Average change rate M-K value A2 Average change rate M-K value B1 Average change rate M-K value
25 Estimated Runoff depth A1B A2 B1 Estimated Runoff depth A1B A2 B Year water balance model Year statistic model Hydrological model results: runoff on Datong station under the three scenarios of the SRES (unit: mm/yr)
26 Conclusions and Recommendations Rainfall/Runoff in Changjiang River basin is estimated to decrease during , start to rise up during 2020 ~ 2040, and then increase significantly till 2100 The trend of temperature on Changjiang River basin is predicted increasing for the coming 100 years The average increasing rate of the runoff volume will be around 2% than the average runoff during the period of from 1971 to 2000 over the year for the Changjiang River Basin under A1B (based on multimodels)
27 Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions Considerable uncertainties have been found in the two developed hydrological models. Uncertainty has been also found from the estimation of evaporation data. Recommendations Suggest to improve and further study the impact of climate change with distributed hydrological model To seek for more accurate method to estimate actual evaporation
28 Thank you!
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