Monterey County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update

Transcription

1 Monterey County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Darrin Punchard November 20, 2013

2 Agenda Welcome and Introductions Progress Update Review and Discuss Updated Hazard Information Review and Discuss Digital Coast Resources Finalize Hazard Identification and Prioritization Next Steps

3 Progress Update

4 Project Schedule PROJECT TASKS AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP Task 1. Planning Process 1.1 Project Initiation 1.2 Develop Public Outreach Strategy 1.3 MJ Planning Team Meetings Mtg 1 Mtg 2 Mtg 3 Mtg 4 Mtg 5 Mtg 6 Mtg Individual Jurisdiction Meetings 1.5 Conduct Public Outreach Mtg 1 Mtg Document Planning Process Task 2. Hazard Analysis & Risk Assessment 2.1 Data Collection and Analysis 2.2 Hazard Identification 2.3 Hazard Profiles and Mapping 2.4 Inventory of Community Assets 2.5 Vulnerability Assessment 2.6 Summarize Findings and Conclusions Task 3. Capability Assessment 3.1 Review Existing Capabilities 3.2 Summarize Findings and Conclusions Task 4. Mitigation Strategy 4.1 Update Goals and Objectives 4.2 Analyze Mitigation Actions and Projects 4.3 Prepare Mitigation Action Plans 4.4 Mitigation Action Prioritization Task 5. Plan Maintenance Process 5.1 Monitoring/Evaluating/Updating 5.2 Implementation/Integration 5.3 Public Involvement Task 6. Plan Adoption and Approval 6.1 Assist County with Plan Approval 6.2 Assist Jurisdictions with Plan Adoption

5 Progress Update Individual Jurisdiction Meetings Completed for 12 of 13 jurisdictions Good discussion on local issues, concerns, and needs. Information will be integrated into updated plan sections as appropriate. Three surveys left behind for each jurisdiction: Capability Assessment Survey Safe Growth Survey NFIP Survey Surveys100% complete for coastal cities Surveys for valley cities due to AECOM by December 6 th Separate meeting held with Elkhorn Slough to discuss research programs and local community outreach efforts

6 Data Collection and Analysis Using best available and readily useable data Monterey County will help assemble and provide local data to AECOM Will be used in combination with other data made available through Digital Coast, the State of California, and other reliable sources Individual Jurisdiction Meetings will be used to update any new or critical information since 2007 Electronic worksheets and surveys to be used for collecting information from all local participating jurisdictions Public outreach efforts will result in new data and helpful input for entire plan update process

7 Data Collection and Analysis Community profile information Updated and expanded section on population, housing, demographics Added new section on employment and industry Added new section with individual community descriptions Hazard profile information Collected data on notable events since 2007 New or updated mapping of known hazard areas Digital Coast Resources Finalized Implementation Strategy with NOAA Researched 11 new datasets and 7 tools for possible integration into plan update process

8 Planning Team Organization

9 Planning Team Organization Steering Committee 13 Local Jurisdiction Leads, supported by fellow local staff Guides overall plan update process through general consensus. Local Jurisdiction Leads are required to attend all Planning Team meetings, provide guidance and leadership when called upon, and act as a primary point of contact for the jurisdiction they are representing. Other responsibilities include: Coordinate with other local staff from their jurisdiction Coordinate logistics for Individual Jurisdiction Meetings Assist with data collection and information sharing Assist with public outreach and stakeholder engagement efforts Assist with updating and developing community-specific mitigation action plans Review and comment on draft plan materials Coordinate local plan adoption procedures

10 Planning Team Organization Stakeholder Committee Includes representatives from a wide cross-section of relevant agencies and organizations from Monterey County and neighboring communities. Stakeholder Committee Members are encouraged to provide input throughout the plan update process, including attendance at Planning Team meetings and/or through reviewing and providing comments on draft plan materials. The role of the Stakeholder Committee is to help inform the plan update process on specific areas of interest, in addition to providing different perspectives from outside the Steering Committee and local governments of participating jurisdictions.

11 Planning Team Organization Technical Advisory Committee Includes subject matter experts from academia along with official representatives from regional, state and federal agencies. Technical Advisory Committee Members are encouraged to provide input throughout the plan update process, including attendance at Planning Team meetings and/or through reviewing and providing comments on draft plan materials. The role of the Technical Advisory Committee is to help inform the plan update process on specific areas of study or interest, in addition to providing advice, assistance, technical information or other resources that will benefit the plan update and implementation process.

12 Public Outreach Finalized Public Outreach Plan Launched Public Survey 22 questions on hazards, assets, and mitigation and preparedness activities Please go respond, and help us advertise!! Updated Project Website Includes project information, current plan, link to survey, etc. Public Meeting(s) Will be scheduled to coincide with next Planning Team meeting

13 Review and Discuss Updated Hazard Information

14 Hazard Identification Task Description Conduct an updated evaluation and screening of all potential natural hazards in Monterey County. This includes those identified in the County s current plan and others identified by the Planning Team during initial meetings. This includes climate-related hazards such as sea level rise, debris flows, agricultural emergencies, and any of those hazards that are identified as potential hazards through AECOM s hazard identification process or identified by California s Enhanced State Hazard Mitigation Plan. The rationale for including or excluding potential hazards from further study will be documented within the updated plan.

15 Hazard Identification and Screening (2007) Hazard Type Should It Be Profiled? Explanation Avalanche NO Monterey County is not located in area prone to frequent or significant snowfall. Coastal Erosion Coastal Storm YES NO (See Flood) Several participating jurisdictions and areas of the unincorporated county are located along the Pacific Coast. Several participating jurisdictions and areas of the unincorporated county are located along the Pacific Coast. This hazard will be addressed in the flood hazard profile. Dam Failure YES Several State-sized dams are located within Monterey County. Drought NO Existing local plans and policies, including water conservation activities of the Monterey Peninsula Water Management District Law, landscaping plans, and existing development and new construction water conservation requirements, help diminish the effects of this hazard. Earthquake YES Several active faults, including the San Andreas Fault, run through Monterey County. Expansive Soils NO No historic events have occurred in Monterey County. Extreme Heat NO While extreme temperatures are known to occur, prolonged heat waves are rare. Flood YES History of flooding is associated with coastal storms and heavy rainfall. Hailstorm NO No significant historic events have occurred in Monterey County.

16 Hazard Identification and Screening (2007) Hazard Type Should It Be Profiled? Explanation Hurricane NO No significant historic events have occurred in Monterey County. Land Subsidence Landslide Severe Winter Storm NO YES NO No historic events have occurred in Monterey County. Monterey County is vulnerable to slope instability in the Santa Lucia Mountain Range and fault zones, especially after prolonged rainfalls. No significant historic events have occurred in Monterey County. Tornado NO No significant historic events have occurred in Monterey County. Tsunami YES Several participating jurisdictions and areas of the unincorporated county are located along the Pacific Coast. Volcano NO No significant historic events have occurred in Monterey County. Wildland Fires YES The terrain, vegetation, and weather conditions in the region are favorable for the ignition and rapid spread of wildland fires. Windstorm YES Sustained inland sea breezes occur annually from March to October. Other: Hazardous Materials YES Hazardous materials facilities and major transportation routes are located throughout Monterey County.

17 Hazard Identification Exercise Results (2013) 1. Flood ($202) 2. Earthquake ($117) 3. Sea Level Rise ($80) 4. Wildland Fire ($65) 5. Agricultural Emergency ($53) 6. Coastal Erosion ($29) 7. Coastal Storm ($21) 8. Hazardous Materials Event ($14) 9. Dam Failure ($14) 10. Civil Unrest ($13) 11. Energy / EMPs ($13) 12. Windstorm ($9) 13. Debris flow ($8) 14. Terrorism ($3) 15. Extreme Heat ($2) 16. Landslide ($1) 17. Tsunami ($0)

18 2013 State of California Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (Public Review Draft) Primary Hazards* Earthquake Flood Wildfire * Require priority attention because they account for the largest losses Secondary Hazards Levee Failure Landslide Tsunami Climate Related Impacts Volcanoes

19 Hazard Identification and Screening (2013) Hazard Type Profiled? (2007) Is New, Critical, or Substantially Different Data Available? Should It Be Added/Updated? (2013) Agricultural Emergency N/A YES YES Avalanche NO NO NO Coastal Erosion YES NO NO Coastal Storm NO (See Flood) Dam Failure YES NO NO Drought NO NO NO Earthquake YES NO NO Explanation Cropland/land use data can be used to estimate percentage of agricultural lands and crops exposed to various hazards. Nothing has changed with regard to this hazard. No new data is available that would significantly supersede the data used previously. NO NO See notes for Flood. Until the San Clemente Dam is removed, there is no apparent change in existing mapped inundation areas. No new data is available to dictate the need to add this hazard. Multiple alternate data layers are available, but none that are significantly different or superior to the data used previously. Expansive Soils NO NO NO No new data has been identified. Extreme Heat NO TBD TBD TBD Flood YES NO NO Preliminary DFIRM data was used in 2007; the data is now effective but this is not a substantial change. Hailstorm NO NO NO No new data has been identified.

20 Hazard Identification and Screening (2013) Hazard Type Profiled? (2007) Is New, Critical, or Substantially Different Data Available? Should It Be Added/Updated? (2013) Explanation Hurricane NO NO NO No new data has been identified. Land Subsidence NO NO NO No new data has been identified. Landslide YES YES YES Sea Level Rise N/A YES YES High Probability Debris Flow data is presently available for portions of Monterey County. Comparable data can be prepared countywide. Multiple data options are available for assessing sea level rise. Severe Winter Storm NO NO NO No new data has been identified. Tornado NO NO NO No new data has been identified. Tsunami YES YES YES The new Tsunami Inundation Map data (Cal EMA, CGS, USC) is the latest official dataset for showing tsunami risk. Volcano NO NO NO No new data has been identified. Wildland Fires YES YES POSSIBLY Fire Threat to People data is available that could be added as a new map product and/or possibly a new analysis table. Windstorm YES NO POSSIBLY No new data has been identified. Other: Hazardous Materials YES YES YES Fixed HAZMAT sites based on EPA TRI data can be used to enhance the existing profile.

21 Hazard Identification Existing Hazards (2007) New Hazards (2013) Coastal Erosion Dam Failure Earthquake Agricultural Emergency Debris Flow (updating under Landslide) Sea Level Rise Flood (includes Coastal Storm) Extreme Heat? Hazardous Materials Event Landslide Tsunami Wildland Fire Windstorm * The anticipated effects of climate change will be integrated into the analysis for all hazards.

22 Major Disaster Declarations Monterey County, 1953 Present Declaration Date Incident Type Description 4/18/2011 Tsunami Tsunami Waves 3/13/2007 Freezing Severe Freeze 2/9/1999 Freezing CA - Citrus Crop Damage 2/2/99 2/9/1998 Severe Storm(s) Severe Winter Storms, and Flooding 1/4/1997 Severe Storm(s) Severe Storms, Flooding, Mud and Landslides 3/12/1995 Severe Storm(s) Severe Winter Storms, Flooding Landslides, Mud Flow 1/10/1995 Severe Storm(s) Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, Landslides, Mud Flows 2/3/1993 Flood Severe Winter Storm, Mud & Landslides, and Flooding 2/11/1991 Freezing Severe Freeze 10/18/1989 Earthquake Loma Prieta Earthquake 7/18/1985 Fire Grass, Wildlands, & Forest Fires 2/9/1983 Coastal Storm Coastal Storms, Floods, Slides & Tornadoes 2/15/1978 Flood Coastal Storms, Mudslides & Flooding 1/26/1969 Flood Severe Storms & Flooding 1/2/1967 Flood Severe Storms & Flooding

23 Hazard Events Since 2007 As reported by NOAA s National Climate Data Center 41 recorded events Nearly $10 million in property damages; $23 million in crop damages Event Type # of Events Property Damages Crop Damages Casualties (Fatalities / Injuries) Coastal Flood 1 $1 million $0 0 / 0 Flood / Flash Flood 7 $1.3 million $1.6 million 0 / 0 Frost / Freeze 1 $0 $21 million 0 / 0 Hail 1 $0 $0 0 / 0 Heat 1 $0 $0 1 / 0 High Surf 4 $30k $0 4 / 5 High Wind 13 $1.6 million $0 1 / 0 Landslide / Debris Flow 9 $4 million $0 0 / 0 Rip Current 3 $0 $0 4 / 1 Tsunami 1 $1.8 million $0 0 / 0 TOTAL 41 $9.7 million $22.6 million 10 / 6

24 Hazard Events Since 2007 Wildland Fire, as reported by CAL FIRE 11 large wildland fire events (300+ acres) 277,186 acres burned, 79 structures destroyed, 10 damaged Total est. state dollar damages = $954k; no reported casualties Year Fire Name Dates Acres Burned Cause Structures (Destroyed / Damaged) 2007 Mission 6/28 6/28 2,300 Powerlines 0 / Indians 6/8 7/10 81,378 Campfire 15 / Basin Complex 6/21 7/27 162,818 Lightning 58 / Turkey 8/7 8/8 400 Power Equipment 0 / Chalk 9/25 10/29 16,269 Miscellaneous 0 / Bryson 8/26 8/29 3,383 Structure 5 / Gloria 8/27 9/1 6,437 Equipment 1 / Ponderosa 8/1 8/7 458 Miscellaneous 0 / Metz 5/12 5/ Other 0 / Cattleman 5/29 5/ Other 0 / Turkey 7/9 7/10 2,529 Equipment 0 / 0

25 Hazard Events Since 2007 Earthquake, as reported by California Geological Survey 47 events centered in Monterey County Maximum magnitude of 4.4 Average magnitude of 3.1

26 Hazard Events Since 2007 HazMat Events, as reported by National Response Center 282 recorded incidents (see below) Most were very minor and resulted in no casualties Type Incidents Sources Number Number Sources Since Since 2007 Aircraft 2 5 Oil, Misc Fixed Oil, Diesel Mobile Oil, Fuel Pipeline 27 9 Ammonia Railroad 24 4 Oil, Crude 17 0 Release Non-Railroad Unleaded Gas Storage Tank 10 5 Sewage Unknown Natural Gas Vessel Other Total Total

27 Sea Level Rise California experienced rise of 7 inches (18 cm) over the past century ( ) The State of California currently uses projections based on estimates of global sea level rise: 14 inches (36 cm) by inches (140 cm) by 2100 Recent evidence suggests these estimates are low In addition to coastal inundation, sea level rise will increase vulnerability to coastal erosion and flooding, and exacerbate saltwater intrusion

28 Sea Level Rise Previously used data N/A Best current options NOAA CSC Digital Coast SLR Inundation, 1ft.-6ft. Pacific Institute 55-inch SLR, Year 2100 Elkhorn Slough Inundation (more detailed, but limited extent) Recommendation(s) Elkhorn Slough Inundation for the extent for which it is available NOAA CSC Digital Coast SLR Inundation for all other areas Use in combination with updated data on critical facilities, parcels, etc.

29 Sea Level Rise Pacific Institute NOAA Coastal Services Center Comparison

30 Sea Level Rise NOAA Coastal Services Center Elkhorn Slough Comparison

31 Debris Flow Previously used data N/A Best current options High Probability Debris Flow (USGS from Monterey County) Limited to Los Padres National Forest Recommendation(s) High Probability Debris Flow (USGS from Monterey County) Replicate USGS methodology for remainder of county area

32 Debris Flow High Probability Debris Flow (USGS)

33 Agricultural Emergency Previously used data N/A Best current options Coastal Change Analysis Program (CCAP) Regional Land Cover (NOAA Digital Coast) Recommendation(s) Use CCAP data to determine potential exposure and percentages of cultivated lands intersecting mapped hazard areas with estimated crop type breakdowns

34 Agricultural Emergency Crops 2012 Crop Value 2012 Acreage Leaf Lettuce $794,245,000 80,468 Strawberries $784,769,000 11,537 Head Lettuce $476,396,000 44,768 Broccoli $316,498,000 57,459 Nursery Products $307,543,000 1,494 Wine Grapes $214,306,000 45,130 Celery $193,296,000 12,941 Spinach $130,686,000 11,383 Misc. Vegetables $116,964,000 32,257 Cauliflower $109,981,000 20,009 Spring Mix $86,889,000 6,970 Mushrooms $85,796, Salad Products $76,436,000 N/A Artichokes $46,083,000 4,900 Raspberries $41,354, Cabbage $40,529,000 5,446 Peas $27,393,000 1,627 Onions, Green $25,433,000 1,221 Carrots $22,279,000 2,941 Rappini $20,724,000 4,070 Radicchio $18,877,000 2,794 Kale $18,496,000 1,876 Asparagus $16,706,000 2,304 Lemons $15,151,000 1,239 Onions, Dry $10,155,000 2,219

35 Agricultural Emergency Coastal Change Analysis Program Regional Land Cover (NOAA Digital Coast)

36 Agricultural Emergency California Cropland Data Layer, 2012 (USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service)

37 Agricultural Emergency Crops 2012 Acreage (Monterey 2012 Acreage (USDA Cropland County Crop Report) Data Layer) Leaf Lettuce 80, Strawberries 11,537 10,686 Head Lettuce 44,768 Included with Leaf Lettuce Broccoli 57,459 2 Nursery Products 1,494 N/A Wine Grapes 45,130 69,804 Celery 12,941 N/A Spinach 11,383 N/A Misc. Vegetables 32,257 N/A Cauliflower 20,009 N/A Spring Mix 6,970 N/A Mushrooms 137 N/A Salad Products N/A N/A Artichokes 4,900 N/A Raspberries 697 N/A Cabbage 5,446 N/A Peas 1,627 N/A Onions, Green 1, Carrots 2, Rappini 4,070 N/A Radicchio 2,794 N/A Kale 1,876 N/A Asparagus 2,304 N/A Lemons 1, (Citrus) Onions, Dry 2,219 Included with Onions, Green

38 Coastal Erosion Previously used data 100-year Projection 4-inch, 7-inch and 33.6-inch Annual Erosion Rates Best current options No better data than previously used Recommendation(s) Analysis remains as-is

39 Dam Failure Previously used data Dam locations and dam inundation areas (Cal OES) Hernandez, San Clemente and Los Padres, San Antonio and Nacimiento, Salinas Best current options Cal OES dam inundation data as of July 2013 Recommendation(s) Analysis remains as-is

40 Earthquake Previously used data Historic Epicenters 1881-December 2006 Greater than 2.5 (URS) Quaternary and Younger Faults (CGS) Prob. Seismic Hazard Model Earthquake Shaking Potential (CGS) Best current options USGS Earthquake Archive ( ) USGS Significant Earthquakes ( ) Monterey County Earthquakes ( ) Quaternary and Younger Faults (CGS) Prob. Seismic Hazard Model Earthquake Shaking Potential (CGS) Recommendation(s) Earthquakes greater than 2.5 from 1966 to 2012 (USGS) Significant earthquakes (greater than 6.5) from 1568 to 1966 (USGS)

41 Earthquake

42 Flood (includes Coastal Storm) Previously used data FEMA Flood Zones (FEMA Preliminary DFIRM, 2005) 100-Year, 500-Year Best current options FEMA Effective DFIRM, 2009 Recommendation(s) FEMA Effective DFIRM, 2009

43 Hazardous Material Event Previously used data 1-Mile Corridor Along Active Freight Rail (Union Pacific) and US and State Highways (Unspecified Source) Best current options USDOT National Transportation Atlas Database 2013 HAZMAT Routes EPA Toxics Release Inventory (TRI) 2012 data Recommendation(s) Expand HAZMAT analysis to include both fixed and mobile HAZMAT sites and corridors using the data shown in the preceding bullet

44 Hazardous Material Event

45 Landslide Previously used data Earthquake-Induced Landslide Susceptibility (21 st Century General Plan Update, 2001) Low, Moderate, High Best current options Earthquake-Induced Landslide Susceptibility (21 st Century General Plan Update, 2001) Recommendation(s) Analysis remains as-is

46 Tsunami Previously used data Tsunami Inundation Model (USC) Potential Tsunami Hazard Elevations (URS) Moderate Tsunami Run-Up Area (below 21 feet MSL) Extreme Tsunami Run-Up Area (21 to 50 feet MSL) Best current options Official Tsunami Inundation Map for Emergency Planning (Cal EMA, CGS, USC), 2009 Represents the maximum considered tsunami run-up from a number of extreme, yet realistic, tsunami sources Recommendation(s) Update analysis based on best currently available data

47 Tsunami Tsunami Inundation Map for Emergency Planning, 2009 Potential Tsunami Hazard Elevations (URS)

48 Wildland Fire Previously used data Fire Perimeters ( ) (CDF-FRAP) Fire Occurrence ( ) Total Acres Burned (Unspecified [Fire Sciences Laboratory?]) Fuel Rank (CDF-FRAP) Non-Fuel, Moderate, High, Very High Best current options Fire Perimeters ( ) (CDF-FRAP) Fuel Rank (CDF-FRAP) Fire Threat to People (CDF-FRAP) Little or No Threat, Moderate, High, Very High, Extreme Recommendation(s) Add Fire Threat to People analysis

49 Wildland Fire Fuel Rank

50 Wildland Fire Fuel Threat to People

51 Windstorm Previously used data 500-foot Contour Surface Exposure to the Northwest (URS) Best current options No new data available Recommendation(s) Analysis remains as-is

52 Climate Change

53 Climate Change Incorporate a new summary assessment of the potential or anticipated long-term effects of climate change on the frequency, intensity, duration, and impact of each hazard Primary Sources: Cal-Adapt NOAA s Digital Coast California Adaptation Planning Guide Documents (2012) California s Third Climate Change Assessment (2012): Vulnerability and Adaptation Study California Climate Adaptation Strategy (2009) IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2013) Other suggestions?

54 Climate Change Projected changes for California: Increased temperatures Sea level rise Reduced winter snowpack Altered precipitation patterns More frequent storm events Potential impacts: Altered agricultural productivity Wildfire risk Water supply Public health Public safety Ecosystem function Economic Continuity

55 Climate Change Potential Impacts for Central Coast: Increased temperatures Reduced precipitation Reduced agricultural productivity Sea level rise coastal flooding and infrastructure damage Biodiversity threat Public health threats Reduced tourism

56 Climate Change Projections for Monterey County (Cal Adapt) Projected Changes in Annual Average Temperature by 2100 Historical Average = 58.1 F Low Emissions Scenario = 61.0 F (+2.9 F ) High Emission Scenario = 63.1 F (+4.9 F )

57 Climate Change Projections for Monterey County (Cal Adapt) Projected Changes in Number of Extreme Heat Days Historical Average = 4 days Models project a significant rise in the number of extreme heat days, for both low and high emissions scenarios

58 Climate Change Projections for Monterey County (Cal Adapt) Sea Level Rise Projected Land Vulnerable to 100-Year Flood Event:

59 Climate Change Projections for Monterey County (Cal Adapt) Wildfire Projected increase in area burned:

60 Climate Change Projections for Monterey County (Cal Adapt) Precipitation On average, projections show little change in total annual precipitation Among several models, projections do not show a consistent trend during the next century In general, slight declines are projected for low areas and greater declines are projected for elevated areas

61 Critical Facilities

62 Critical Facilities Multiple datasets available for consideration Monterey County GIS Hazus-MH Default Inventories UASI / CIKR City of Monterey GIS Types of facilities selected for comparison of datasets Emergency Operations Centers (EOCs) Police Stations Fire Stations Medical Care Facilities Schools Nursing Homes/Assisted Living Facilities

63 Critical Facilities Source Total Number of Points Analyzed for Accuracy Percent Deemed Accurate Percent Deemed Questionable Percent Deemed Inaccurate Monterey County Hazus-MH UASI / CIKR* City of Monterey *The UASI/CIKR data contains a total of 458 points. However, some classes of facilities are considered less relevant to this risk assessment in terms of critical or essential facilities, such as mini-storage buildings, military recruiting stations, sporting goods stores, shopping malls, etc.

64 Critical Facilities Point Locations Monterey County GIS

65 Review and Discuss Digital Coast Resources

66 NOAA Digital Coast Data Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts data SLR inundation at 0-6 ft intervals Coastal Change Analysis Program Regional Land Cover Cultivated lands (includes herbaceous [cropland] and woody [e.g., orchards, nurseries and vineyards] cultivated lands) Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) Will be used to show differences in capacity for preparedness and response, as well as areas (census blocks) where resources might be used most effectively to reduce vulnerability Factors include age, income, family structure, language barriers, vehicle availability, medical disabilities, healthcare access, and service industry employment CanVis

67 CanVis Visualization Visualization program used to "see" potential scenarios or impacts from coastal development or sea level rise Users can download background pictures and insert objects of their choosing Hotels, houses, marinas, floodwaters, projected sea level heights, etc. Used by communities to brainstorm new ideas and policies, undertake project planning and make presentations

68 CanVis Visualization

69 CanVis Visualization

70 Digital Coast Partnership

71 Finalize Hazard Identification and Prioritization

72 Hazard Identification and Prioritization Gain Consensus from Steering Committee on: Identified hazards Hazards deemed most significant for planning area (countywide) Draft criteria for Priority Risk Index (PRI)

73 Identified Hazards Existing Hazards (2007) New Hazards (2013) Coastal Erosion Dam Failure Earthquake Agricultural Emergency Debris Flow (updating under Landslide) Sea Level Rise Flood (includes Coastal Storm) Extreme Heat? Hazardous Materials Event Landslide Tsunami Wildland Fire Windstorm * The anticipated effects of climate change will be integrated into the analysis for all hazards.

74 Priority Risk Index Draft for Committee Discussion Purpose: Summarize hazard profile data Identify which hazards are most significant to the planning area Criteria based on 5 factors: Location Probability Potential Impact Warning Time Duration Results in quantifiable risk scores/rankings Can be use to help prioritize hazard risks for each jurisdiction

75 Next Steps

76 Next Steps Conduct Public Outreach Please help us promote the public survey! Establish links from city websites to the survey and project website Use Fact Sheet to help summarize the project Complete Hazard Analysis and Risk Assessment (AECOM) Complete Capability Assessment (AECOM) Schedule Next Planning Team Meeting Late January or early February, 2014?

77 Monterey County Multi-jurisdictional Hazard Mitigation Plan Update Darrin Punchard November 20, 2013