History of Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Modeling-- and Future Outlook

Transcription

1 History of Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and Modeling-- and Future Outlook Richard A. Anthes 2012 APEC Typhoon Symposium Taipei 4 June 2012

2 Introduction and apologies Thanks to Ben Jou for suggesting this topic My talk may not be a comprehensive, balanced history it is a work in progress. Criticisms and suggestions are welcome. Send to anthes@ucar.edu It will be based largely on the history of tropical cyclone forecasting in the Atlantic and some of my work on hurricane modeling in the 1960s and 1970s. While the history of Atlantic hurricane forecasting is fairly complete, more attention needs to be directed at documenting the history of western Pacific and Indian Ocean tropical cyclone forecasting. The oral presentation today is only part of the longer presentation, which is available on the web site.

3 Topics History of tropical cyclone forecasting 1840s-2012 Emergence of radiosondes, aircraft reconnaissance, and radars in the 1930s and 1940s Emergence of numerical weather prediction and satellite observations in the 1950s and 1960s Hot towers, CISK and cumulus parameterization Early hurricane model MM5 A personal history Future

4 Overview st hurricane forecast issued by William Reed in Barbados based on barometric pressure observations 1870s-1890s Father Benito Viñes Cuba 1922 L.F. Richardson Weather Prediction by Numerical Process 1930s Upper air data-pilot balloons and radiosondes 1940s Aircraft reconnaissance and radars 1943 Col. J. Duckworth 1 st intentional flight into hurricane st radar images of spiral rainbands Bob Simpson observations 1950s Barotropic forecast models National Hurricane Research Project started in 1956

5 Overview 1960s Polar satellites and axisymmetric (2-D) primitive equation (PE) models, statistical models TIROS-1 launched 1 April 1960 HURRAN (Analog method) and CLIPER (Climatology and Persistence) models 6-layer PE model at NMC 1970s 3-D TC models, geostationary satellites 1 st 3-D PE tropical cyclone model st GOES 1974 MFM becomes operational 1976 at NMC

6 Overview 1980s-1990s Operational TC models, dynamicalstatistical models using global model output GFDL model becomes operational 1992 MM5 model used worldwide 2000-present Higher resolution global models, multiple nested grid TC models, ensemble model forecasts, effective assimilation of satellite and other data, emergence of WRF model

7 Japan 1875 JMA (Tokyo Met Observatory) formed st forecast issued 1938 Radiosondes begin 1954 Radar observations begin 1959 NWP begins 1950s-1960s Many Japanese TC scientists UNESCO Symp. On Typhoons. Nov Tokyo 1960 International Symposium on Numerical Weather Prediction, Tokyo 1977 GMS-L-1 st geostationary satellite launched

8 1960 International Symposium on Numerical Weather Prediction, Tokyo November 7 13, 1960

9 1960 International Symposium on Numerical Weather Prediction, Tokyo J Smagorinsky Miyakoda G. Arnason Y. Ogura Ito Fujiwara Ms Smagorinsky A. Arawkawa F. Shuman Nabeshima Masuda H. Ito Terauchi H.L. Kuo A. Kasahara J. Charney Ms Phillips Ms Charney N. Phillips G Platzman Ms Ogura K Gambo November 7 13, 1960

10 Leadership of Japan Scientists 1950s-60s Arakawa Fujita Fujiwara Gambo Kasahara Kurihara Matsuno Miyakoda Ogura Ooyama Sasaki Syōno Yamasaki Yanai

11 Philippines and Hong Kong 1865-Philippines-Francisco Colina, Jesuit scholar, regular observations begin at Observatorio de Manila became official in 1894, became Weather Bureau in 1901 July early forecast of typhoon crossing Northern Luzon 1883 Hong Kong Observatory established

12 The Incredible Leadership of Father Viñes First hurricane warning service was set up in the early 1870's in Cuba with the work of Father Benito Viñes Director of the Meteorological Observatory of the Royal College of Belén, Cuba. Established a network of observation sites and developed the first method to forecast tropical cyclone movement, with one of the oldest known forecasts made for a hurricane on Sept. 11, 1875 Forecasts based on movement of high-level clouds Father Benito Viñes. Born 1837 in Spain. Moved to Cuba in Died July 23, 1893

13 Viñes 1 st hurricane forecast

14 Robert H. Simpson Born in yrs old this year! 1945-planned and conducted one of first research missions through eye of hurricane 1973-Saffir-Simpson damage potential scale Founding Director of NHRL and Director of NHC 1962-DoC gold medal 1973-Gold medal of France 1990-AMS Cleveland Abbe Award 2002-Editor of Hurricane! Coping with Disaster

15 Washington Star Sept. 19, 1947

16 Simpson, R.H., 1952: Exploring eye of Typhoon Marge BAMS Typhoon Marge 0600 GMT Aug. 15, 1951.

17 Inside the eye of Typhoon Marge Simpson, R.H., 1952: Exploring eye of Typhoon Marge

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20 Typhoon Morakot August 7, 2009

21 Operational ECMWF system September to December Averaged over all model layers and entire global atmosphere. % contribution of different observations to reduction in forecast error. AMSU A: Adv MW Sounder A on Aqua and NOAA POES (T) IASI: IR Atmos Interferometer on METOP (T,H) AIRS: Atmos IR Sounder on Aqua (T,H) AIREP: Aircraft T, H, and winds GPSRO: RO bending angles from COSMIC, METOP TEMP: Radiosonde T, H, and winds QuikSCAT: sfc winds over oceans SYNOP: Sfc P over land and oceans,h, and winds over oceans AMSU B: Adv MW Sounder B on NOAA POES GOES winds METEOSAT winds Ocean buoys (Sfc P, H and winds) PILOT: Pilot balloons and wind profilers (winds) HIRS: High Resol IR Sounder on NOAA POES (T,H) MSG: METEOSAT 2nd Generation IR rad (T,H) MHS: MW humidity sounder on NOAA POES and METOP (H) AMSRE: MW imager radiances (clouds and precip) SSMI: Special Sensor MW Imager (H and sfc winds) GMS: Japanese geostationary satellite winds MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (winds) GOES IR rad (T,H) MTSATIMG: Japanese geostationary sat vis and IR imagery METEOSAT IR Rad (T,H) O3: Ozone from satellites GPS RO has significant impact (ranked #5 among all observing systems) in reducing forecast errors, despite the small number of soundings. OPAC 2010 Rick Anthes Forecast error contribution (%) Courtesy: Carla Cardinali and Sean Healy, ECMWF 22 Oct. 2009

22 Early Numerical Models 1950: Successful barotropic forecasts by Princeton group. 1954: Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit (JNWPU) formed (WB, AF, Navy) : Operational forecasts with IBM 701 by National Meteorological Center (NMC), Washington, D.C : Major hurricanes hit the U.S. mainland. U.S. Congress responded. Sasaki and Miyakoda (1954 and 1956): Subtracted vortex from flow and used residual mean flow to compute velocity of TC. Akira Kasahara, 1957: The numerical prediction of hurricane movement with the barotropic model. J. Meteor. W.E. Hubert, 1957: Hurricane trajectory forecasts from a nondivergent, non-geostrophic, barotropic model. Mon. Wea. Rev. Gene Birchfield, 1960: Numerical Prediction of Hurricane Movement with a Fine Grid. J. Meteor.,

23 Early Operational Tests L.F. Hubert, 1959: An operational test of a numerical prediction method for hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev. Tested Kasahara s barotropic forecast model on 17 hurricanes for 72-h forecasts under operational (real time) conditions. Probably 1 st operational numerical forecasts of TC Results not competitive with subjective forecasts Concluded that accurate forecast of large-scale conditions was essential for accurate prediction of TC motion and that lack of upper air observations over oceans was a fundamental limitation to forecast accuracy

24 1 st operationally successful model Shuman, 1989 Weather and Forecasting

25 Kasahara, 1957 computational domain. Note large spacing between grid points (300 km)

26 Kasahara, 1957 Forecast of Hurricane Diane, 1955

27 Hot Towers, Cumulus Parameterization and CISK Major topics of research and theory in the 50s and 60s!

28 Cooperation vs Competition CISK vs CIFK Linear theories in a conditionally unstable atmosphere (CIFK) say that, given a wide range of scales in initial perturbations, the cumulus scales will always win over hurricane scales. To explain the existence of both scales, the idea of cooperation rather than competition was developed (Ooyama, 1964; Charney and Eliassen, 1964) Conditional instability of the second kind (CISK)- With a suitable parameterization of cumulus clouds, the cumulus scales of motion can be suppressed and hurricane scale motions can grow

29 CIFK in an early hurricane model. Akira Kasahara 1961 J. Meteor.

30 Cumulus Parameterization Relate interactions and feedbacks of cumulus convection and larger-scale hurricane circulation. Concept supported by separation of scales and the fact that the two scales of circulation were known to be closely related through static stability, low-level convergence, water vapor supply.

31 H.-L. Kuo (1965) Parameterization Influenced by notion of hot towers Not good physical explanation of actual interactions. But it works pretty well because it adjusts the large-scale atmosphere toward a moist adiabatic structure, has a reasonable vertical distribution of heating and moistening, and conserves energy.

32 From NHRL Hurricane Model to Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5)

33 MM5 is the fifth generation version of the Penn State- NCAR mesoscale model. It was probably the most widely used mesoscale model in the world for many years. It began with the development of a 3-D hurricane model by R. Anthes in the late 1960s at NOAA s National Hurricane Research Laboratory in Miami, Florida. History of MM5

34 Alan?, Russ DeSouza, Xavier (Bill) Proenza Jim Koss and Rick El Yunque rain forest July 1967

35 1969 NHRL Miami Early Grid structures

36 Spiral Rainbands

37 3-D Trajectories

38 First model of tropical cyclone that produced spiral rainbands. Also one of earliest animations of atmospheric model output (Rick Anthes, 1970)

39 1 st published paper of 3-D Hurricane Model

40 3-D Ocean Response to moving hurricane Chang and Anthes (JPO, 1978) Storm center, moving north Thermocline depth at 82h with slow moving (2.5m/s) storm. Initial depth was 50m. Upwelled areas denoted by dotted lines (40 m lowest Contour). Contour interval 5 m. Spacing between tick marks 20 km. Upwelling behind storm

41 MM5 Developers in 1999 Nelson Seaman, Dave Stauffer, Tom Warner, Rick Anthes, George Grell, Jimy Dudhia, Bill Kuo. June 1999

42 Hurricane Katrina 2005 Composite Radar Observations WRF initialized 00 UTC 27 Aug 72 h forecast

43 We have come a long way Observations Personal, in situ, aircraft, radar, satellites Theory (mathematics, physics, atmospheric sciences) Numerical models Sponsorship mostly by governments Dedicated people

44 And as a result we have seen a steady increase in forecast skill

45 The next challenge intensity forecasting

46 Rick s Future Outlook Forecast models will interact with ocean, contain explicit cloud physics, resolve clouds, rainbands and eyewall ( s~500m) Track accuracy will continue to improve, especially beyond three days Tropical cyclogenesis will be routinely and correctly predicted by operational global models A dramatic increase in accuracy of TC intensity forecasts is imminent (within 5 years). FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 will play a major role. The relationship between TC formation and intensity and climate change will continue to be an important topic of research for many years.

47 Thank You! Morokot 15:30 UTC 9 August, 2009 Goddess of typhoons?