Integrated Warning Team Workshop National Weather Service - Albany, NY October 31, 2014

Transcription

1 Integrated Warning Team Workshop National Weather Service - Albany, NY October 31, 2014 Scenario #1 = November (Note: November 27 = Thanksgiving) Initial Overview: A storm system will track from the western Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains to southern Quebec near Montreal by Friday. This storm is expected to bring a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to the Albany forecast area covering eastern NY and western New England: Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Sunday, November 23-4:30 pm ACTIONS: EM Community: Internal alerts/heads-up to staff Media: Heads up to public for the potential for holiday issues

2 Monday, November 24-5 am Overview: A large storm system is expected to bring a widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Similar thinking; forecast discussion continues to mention heavy rain event with deep fetch of Gulf and Atlantic moisture coupled with strong dynamics to system. Impacts: Significant river rises with the possibility of a few river forecast points reaching flood stage. Localized urban, street and poor drainage flooding is possible. No conference calls planned at this time; next update around 5 PM this evening. In addition to the Hazardous Weather Outlook, a graphic showing the expected forecast storm total rainfall was sent out to EMs/others. Also send the same graphic out on Social Media mentioning urban and poor drainage flooding can be expected with isolated river flooding possible as well. ACTIONS: USGS: With holiday involved would start assessing staffing CT EM: Internal updates, access possible EOC activities. With upcoming holiday forward update to facilities folks

3 EMs: When there are no conference calls scheduled it lets them know it may not be that bad DOT: Look into possible clean-up work to drains. Bridge Watch small list of bridges that are monitored because they can have problems with high water flow. Media/NWS: With holiday start talk about staffing Health Department: the earlier the heads up the better Fire Departments: When heavy rainfall is possible monitor the NWS so they can prepare for the need for pumps out of residents home. General: Would like the list of what the thresholds are for the initiation of conference calls. They are appended to end of the notes. Monday, November 24-5 pm Overview: A storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to northern New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. With some snow is possible over the higher terrain. Model guidance is now indicating the rain may change to a heavy wet snow over the high terrain, mainly over 1500 feet. Several inches of snow possible across the Catskills, Berkshires & Greens. No conference calls planned at this time; next update around 5 AM tomorrow.

4 ACTIONS: CT EM: Continue with internal updates (nothing to public yet). Since first storm of the year it makes a difference so notify fire, EM, highways, hospitals, etc. Media: Heighten public awareness and highlight potential travel concerns for the holiday. Likely starting fighting misinformation floating around. No snowfall maps at this time, discuss potential impacts. DOT / Utilities : Notify/talk to supervisor about potential staffing Thruway: Already would be running 24-hour operations due to the holiday. Would start to gear up for possibility of snow by heightening alert internally and look into increased staffing. Questions want answered: Start time of the precipitation? Type of precipitation at start? Timing for change in precipitation? Needs this information to plan roadway treatment and staffing. NYS DEC: Start talking to NYS OEM; including their opinions on the forecast. Tuesday, November 25-5 am Overview: A storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to northern New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Some heavy wet snow is possible over the higher terrain. Snow may stick better at night and when precipitation is heavier. No conference calls planned at this time; next update around 5 PM today. 1 PM Wednesday - 1 PM Friday Total Rainfall Forecast Total Snowfall Forecast

5 ACTIONS: Media: Full out coverage: broadcast, social media, webcasts. Storm time line graphics. Clear concise message important. CT EM: Start looking at the worst case scenario internally. Would have concerns about potentially cold temperatures after the storm. Would want NWS forecast confidence and time line for precipitation and changing in precipitation type. DOT: Would start having internal conference calls with areas to be impacted. Tuesday, November 25-5 pm Overview: A storm system will track from the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday to New England by Friday. This storm is expected to bring widespread moderate to heavy precipitation to the Albany forecast area Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day. Some snow is now possible over our entire forecast area with heavier accumulations possible over the higher terrain. WINTER STORM WATCH issued for all of east central New York and western New England. Impacts: Higher elevations may see enough accumulation of heavy wet snow for isolated to scattered power outages. Localized urban, street and poor drainage flooding is possible (lower elevations). Larger river flood threat is diminished. Conference calls for NY at 11:30 AM tomorrow & for New England at 12:00 PM Total Rainfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday - 1 PM Friday Total Snowfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday -1 PM Friday

6 ACTIONS: Hospitals: Make staffing plans with clinical staff and facilities personnel. Utilities: o Want to know the type of snow: Heavy? Light? o Inform public of the potential for power outages with upcoming storm o Check availability of contract staff NYS OEC: accessing operations needs CT EM: Working with DOT. Concerned about temperatures and roadway treatment. DOT: o What to know confidence in forecast o Need to know timing of precipitation which affects staffing o November 1 st is the date to have equipment transitioned to winter operations. o Having internal conference calls with areas to be impacted o Going over possibilities of needing to move equipment o Could start generic messages on message boards, typically put messages up the commute prior (i.e. Afternoon impact, messages on boards during morning commute). Discussion would be underway. MEMA: Would start messages on boards Monday for the holiday Thursday and adjust as needed Media: Weather has become the NEWS. Interviewing utilities companies, etc. Offering suggestions to viewers about travel. Dealing with big messaging problems (social media) especially since is first event of season. HAM Radio: Send out to county coordinators especially where expecting the heavier snowfall. Wednesday, November am Big change in the forecast to a heavy snow event Overview: Heavy snow now expected for the Albany Forecast Area late Tomorrow into Thanksgiving Day. Winter Storm Warning has been issued for western New England and the all of east central New York except northern Herkimer and Hamilton counties where winter weather advisory has been issued.

7 Impacts: which are included in the winter storm warning Winds 15 to 25 mph will cause blowing and drifting of snow. Heavy wet snow may cause power outages across far southern part of forecast area. Snowfall rates of 1 to 3 inches possible in heavy bands Conference calls for NY at 11:30 AM & for New England at 12:00 PM

8 Total Snowfall Forecast 1 PM Wednesday - 1 PM Friday ACTIONS: Everyone wants the TIMING of the storm. Start/end times of precipitation. Start/end times of the heavy precipitation. CT EM: Activated State EOC. Have concerns when tight gradient of snowfall is forecast across any portion of the state. Looking at the worst case scenario (WPC Probabilistic snowfall 90 th percentile). Having conference calls with mutual assistance utilities. Having concerns about safe generator use. Assessing need for shelters due to power outages. Working with DOT. Concerned about temperatures and roadway treatment. HAM Radio: Skywarn was activated with winter storm warning. Working HAM network and checking into the need to have operator(s) go to the NWS Office. As storm evolves will start working with Red Cross as needed. Hospitals: Staffing plans, preparing for need to have staff come in early, sleep at hospital.

9 Thruway: Emergency Operation Center operating. Assessing/planning to shift/move resources to affected areas. Monitoring pavement temperatures for roadway treatment. Issue transit alerts across the state on their boards. Typically go 2 to 3 major cities away to inform about road closure. Pushing information through social media and 511 system. Contact vulnerable people in community. Some have lists of those who have needs that require electricity and will need assistance of there are power outages. Media: BIG change in forecast This was a real event: Thanksgiving Snowstorm 1971 Surface Map 7am November 25th, 1971 Record 24-hour November snowfall for Albany, NY = 21.9 inches (Snowfall records for Albany date back to 1884) 30 inches of snow reported at some locations in Albany forecast area.

10 Thousands of stranded motorists in hundreds of cars on area roads including interstates on Thanksgiving Day. Airports closed. Snow was generally light and fluffy (13+:1 ratio at Albany) Blowing and drifting was a problem large drifts and whiteouts at times. Heavy wet snow from Orange County, NY across southern Dutchess County, NY to Litchfield County, CT where numerous power outages were reported (~100,000).

11 Scenario #2 = December 9-13 Tuesday Dec 9-1 pm Overview: A significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Thursday into Friday as low pressure tracks from the Gulf of Mexico Thursday, to near Long Island by Friday Morning. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet and freezing rain are possible. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations over southern areas are forecast to be great enough to cause localized to scattered power outages. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for our entire forecast area. A segmented Hazardous Weather Outlook was issued to highlight different main threats for different areas. Impacts: Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations over southern areas are forecast to be great enough to cause localized to scattered power outages Difficult travel conditions are expected Thursday into Friday No conference calls today; calls tomorrow 1:30 pm for NY & 2 pm New England forecast storm total snowfall ending 1 PM Friday forecast storm ice accumulation ending 1 PM Friday

12 ACTIONS: CT EM: Winter Storm Watch = external updates to partners. Want worst case scenario. Utilities: Have our attention. Thinking about if our going to need outside help. Concerned about winds. Winds really become an issue with three-tenths of an inch of ice (which is forecast at this time) Wednesday Dec 10-1 pm Overview: Increased confidence for ½-1 inch of ice. A significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Thursday into Friday. Light snow (north) mixed precipitation (south) on Thursday becoming heavy Thursday evening and overnight before ending Friday morning. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations are now forecast to be ½-1 inch across a large area. Numerous long-lived power outages now expected. A very wet system is expected. Storm has a lot of moisture to work with. Precipitation type is the big question. Winter Storm Warning (purple) & Ice Storm Warning (pink)

13 forecast storm total snowfall ending 1 PM Friday forecast storm ice accumulation ending 1 PM Friday Conference calls held at 1:30 PM for NY and 2:00 PM for New England Will have conference calls tomorrow at 1:30 pm/ny & 2 pm/new England forecast storm total liquid equivalent ending 1 PM Friday Flood Watch issued at 4 pm Due to expected runoff even though freezing rain is forecast

14 ACTIONS: CT EM / NYS EOC: Activate EOC. Set up warming shelters due to expected power outages. Pre-treat roadways. Utilities: Since power outages may be 48+ hours must supply dry-ice to customers, so looking for dry-ice supplies. Contacting regional utilities companies since may need outside help to restore power. Hospitals: Performing generator checks. Reaching out to offsite doctors and clinics. DOT: Considering possible deployment of staff to impacted areas. Prepare to transport equipment to other areas. Media: Don t use NWS headlines in graphics; can be confusing to public. Focus on forecast and impacts. Inform when ice accretion is expected to occur. Schools: Speak out to superintendents about school closure. Notifying fire chiefs and EM staffs to be prepared for increased workload due to severe weather conditions Everyone: Ice is a game changer. What timeline of ice accretion. Very important for staffing. Thursday Dec 11-5 am Overview: A significant winter storm is expected to impact the NWS Albany forecast area Today into Friday. Significant accumulations of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are forecast. Freezing Rain (glaze) accumulations are still forecast to be ½ - 1 inch across a narrowing area. Numerous long-lived power outages still expected. Mostly snow is forecast over our Adirondack Counties.

15 Winter Storm Warning = purple Ice Strom Warning = pink Winter Weather Advisory = grayish Flood Watch ACTIONS: Schools: Really need to know when ice will start. Thursday Dec 11-1 pm forecast storm total snowfall ending 1 PM Friday forecast storm ice accumulation ending 1 PM Friday

16 Last Conference calls at 1:30 PM for NY and 2:00 PM for New England Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index ACTIONS: DOT: Adjusting treatment for roadways; like the amount of salt that s put down and look for outside resources. CT EM: External updates. Utilities: Need to know about the winds: after ice accumulates on trees and lines and winds pick up have issues. Media: Focus is on impacts; add storm total graphics with disclaimer they will likely change. They wait to run these until closer to storm start. USGS: Gets teams ready to move people around as needed as event evolve General agreement: There is a need to education the public about smart phone alerts. Why they get them and what to do when the get them.

17 This was a real event: Ice Storm December 11-12, 2008 Visit our Past Event web page for 7 am EST December 11, am EST December 12, 2008 Total Liquid Precipitation for the storm

18 LINKS NWS Albany Briefing Pages (Winter, Flooding, Severe, Fire, Tropical) NWS Mobile Weather NWS Chat Meteorological Model Ensemble River Forecasts Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index (combination of ice and wind) Weather Prediction Center Probabilistic Snowfall Graphics &fpd=24&ptype=snow Probabilistic Freezing Rain (Glaze) Accumulation Graphics &fpd=24&ptype=icez Probabilistic Rainfall Graphics

19 New York Department of Environmental Conservation New York State Office of Emergency Management National Weather Service Weather Conference Call Criteria 1. Blizzard All of New York State - possible Blizzard conditions regardless of snowfall amount. 2. Snowfall (excluding Lake Effect snow) New York City and Suburbs - possible 12 inches or more of snow. Remainder of New York State - possible widespread storm producing at least 15 inches of snow. 3. Lake Effect Snow Urban (Buffalo, Rochester, Syracuse) - possible 24 inches or more. Rural - possible 36 inches or more. 4. Freezing precipitation All of New York State - possible ice accumulation of 0.50 inch or more. 5. Flooding Possible widespread areal flooding (Two or more NWS offices serving New York State with expectation(s) of flooding). Snowpack that contains at least two inches liquid water equivalent with the possibility of two inch rainfall. Tropical System (or remnants) approaching New York State regardless of flooding expectation (see #8). 6. Coastal Flooding New York City and Long Island - Possible widespread moderate or major tidal flooding (Reference events: October 91, December 92, and March 93). 7. Severe Weather Any portion of New York State in a Moderate/High Risk Outlook determined by the Storm Prediction Center. Equivalent Moderate/High Risk Outlook threat determined by local NWS office if not in Storm Prediction Center Outlook. 8. Tropical Systems Any tropical system forecast by the National Hurricane Center to approach New York State. Error Cone touching any part of New York. 9. Heat Possible prolonged (three or more days) excessive heat warning event. (Reference event: July 4-6, 1999)

20 10. High Winds Possible widespread non-thunderstorm winds in excess of 70mph. 11. Severe Cold In support of emergency managers who may need to take action to protect citizens from severe indoor cold (loss of heating), WFO Albany will conduct conference calls with emergency managers when the average temperature for three consecutive days at Albany is expected to be 10F or less. Although the criterion is established for Albany only, the conference call should include all EMs and agencies in the WFO Albany CWA for NY and New England. An SPS may be issued for Severe Cold. Discretion on lead time is up to the forecaster, but generally hour lead time is recommended. 12. Events or Impacts not covered here NWS may need a conference call based on a possible weather event which may greatly impact residents or infrastructure even though the event may not meet the minimum criteria listed above. These high impacts may be due to events which are expected to occur during high traffic volume or community activity (rush hours, holidays), events which may occur during an unusual time of year (early or late season snowstorms), or events which may occur in an area still recovering from a previous weather or non-weather event or disaster. Other conference calls initiated by collaboration between DEC, NYS OEM and NWS.