School for Highway Superintendents Real-Time Local Weather Information

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1 School for Highway Superintendents Real-Time Local Weather Information Mark W. Wysocki Senior Lecturer in Meteorology Cornell University New York State Climatologist Keith Eggleston and Kathy Veerland NRCC

2 How important is a weather forecast?

3 How important is a weather forecast? Highways play a vital role in assuring personal and commercial mobility and the productivity of the overall economy as evidenced by the success of the U.S. Interstate Highway Program Salt Institute 2007

4 How important is a weather forecast? In the U.S., more than 70% of the roads (and 70% of the population) are in snowy regions which receive more than 5-inches (13 cm) of snowfall annually Salt Institute 2007

5 SNOW ICE FLOODING

6 Snow and ice: Reduce pavement friction and vehicle maneuverability, causing slower speeds, reduced roadway capacity, and increased crash risk. Average arterial speeds decline by 30 to 40% on snowy or slushy pavement. Freeway speeds are reduced by approximately 10% in light snow and by 40% in heavy snow. Heavy snow and sleet can also reduce visibility. U.S. Department of Transportation June 2006

7 Snow and ice: Each year, nearly 23% of weather related vehicle crashes occur on snowy, slushy or icy pavement and over 14% happen during snowfall or sleet. Over 1,300 people are killed and over 118,000 people are injured in vehicle crashes on snowy, slushy or icy pavement each year. Annually, nearly 900 people are killed and over 76,000 people are injured in vehicle crashes during snowfall or sleet. U.S. Department of Transportation June 2006

8 Snow and ice: Increase road maintenance costs. State and local agencies spend more than 2.3 billion dollars on snow and ice control operations annually. Each year, these road agencies spend over 5 million dollars to repair infrastructure damage caused by snow and ice. U.S. Department of Transportation June 2006

9 What type a weather data is important for highway maintenance?

10 What type a weather data is important for highway maintenance? Precipitation

13 TIME Time is referred to as UTC or ZULU time and based on a 24 hour clock

14 TIME Time is referred to as UTC or ZULU time and based on a 24 hour clock It is referenced to Greenwich England

15 TIME Time is referred to as UTC or ZULU time and based on a 24 hour clock It is referenced to Greenwich England How do you adjust to local time?

16 TIME For Eastern time zones Take Zulu time and subtract: 5 hours during winter 4 hours during summer EX: Winter season 18Z = 18 5 = 13 ==1 pm Eastern time 00Z = 00-5 = 19 == 7 pm Eastern time

17 Specific Forecasts

18 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

19 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

20 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

27 Heavy Snow/Icing Discussion PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 228 PM EDT TUE MAY VALID 00Z WED MAY Z SAT MAY DAYS 1 AND NORTHERN MAINE... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE ARE FCST TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED LG AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ACRS ME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND NEARBY QUEBEC WILL BE ADVECTING COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ME AS GFS/ECMWF FCST NEARLY THE ENTIRE COLUMN ABV THE SURFACE TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. WE PREFERRED A MULTI- MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND WITH CONTINUING SLIGHT TIMING/QPF AXIS DIFFERENCES. WE KEPT A SLGT RISK OF 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVING SNOW DURATION ON BOTH DAYS ONE/TWO AS INITIAL SURFACE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABV FREEZING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE ABOVE FREEZING GROUND TEMPS IN SUPPORTING ACCUMULATIONS...AND OVERCOMING MELTING. ON DAY TWO...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST BY THE ECMWF/GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN ETC. TO ELONGATE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUIT. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. DAY 3... THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE SEASON. WINTER WEATHER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS WILL RESUME ON SEPTEMBER PETERSEN

28 Heavy Snow/Icing Discussion PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 228 PM EDT TUE MAY VALID 00Z WED MAY Z SAT MAY DAYS 1 AND NORTHERN MAINE... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE ARE FCST TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION TO THE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED LG AREA OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT...SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF PRECIP ACRS ME. HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO AND NEARBY QUEBEC WILL BE ADVECTING COLD AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ME AS GFS/ECMWF FCST NEARLY THE ENTIRE COLUMN ABV THE SURFACE TO COOL TO BELOW FREEZING. WE PREFERRED A MULTI- MODEL/ENSEMBLE BLEND WITH CONTINUING SLIGHT TIMING/QPF AXIS DIFFERENCES. WE KEPT A SLGT RISK OF 4 INCH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE AREA DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVING SNOW DURATION ON BOTH DAYS ONE/TWO AS INITIAL SURFACE TEMPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABV FREEZING. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS NEEDED TO OVERCOME THE ABOVE FREEZING GROUND TEMPS IN SUPPORTING ACCUMULATIONS...AND OVERCOMING MELTING. ON DAY TWO...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FCST BY THE ECMWF/GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN ETC. TO ELONGATE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUIT. THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. DAY 3... THE PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED WINTER WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE SEASON. WINTER WEATHER FORECASTS AND DISCUSSIONS WILL RESUME ON SEPTEMBER PETERSEN

35 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

36 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

37 hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sitemap2. /sitemap2.shtmlshtml

38 hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sitemap2. /sitemap2.shtmlshtml

40 susquehannafloodforecasting.org/

46 erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/

55 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

56 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

60 8am to 8am for five day period

61 8pm to 8pm for five day forecast

64 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

65 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

69 High Pressures High pressure usually persists for several consecutive days with clear skies, is ideal weather for heat waves. H Surface high pressure

70 High Pressures High pressure usually persists for several consecutive days with clear skies, is ideal weather for heat waves. H Jet stream 35,000 ft

71 High Pressures High pressure usually persists for several consecutive days with clear skies, is ideal weather for heat waves. Ridge H

72 Fronts Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the cold front could lead to flooding

73 Fronts Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the cold front could lead to flooding L

74 Fronts Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the cold front could lead to flooding L Warm moist air

75 Fronts Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the cold front could lead to flooding Cool dry air L Warm moist air

76 Fronts Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the cold front could lead to flooding Cool dry air L Showers and thunderstorms Warm moist air

77 Fronts Showers and thunderstorms accompanying the cold front could lead to flooding Steady light to moderate rain Cool dry air L Showers and thunderstorms Warm moist air

78 Don t t forget about the health of workers!

79 Don t t forget about the health of workers! A new forecasting product is available dealing with air quality.

80 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

81 Specific Forecasts hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

87 And yet the worst weather phenomena is.

88 And yet the worst weather phenomena is. FOG

89 And yet the worst weather phenomena is. FOG

90 Thank you

Winter Storm Tomorrow-Tomorrow Night

Winter Storm Tomorrow-Tomorrow Night Decision Support Briefing #1 As of 4:30 PM Tuesday, February 19, 2019 What Has Changed? Initial Briefing Main Points Hazard Impacts Location Timing Snow Snow will create