Coastal Storm this Weekend

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1 Weather Briefing Prepared 9 AM EST Feb 5, 2010 Joe Miketta Warning Coordination Meteorologist NOAA s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ Forecast Office x223 Joseph.Miketta@noaa.gov

2 Coastal Storm this Weekend Predicted location of low pressure system, 7 AM Sat. Position and strength of this low means very strong winds Friday night through Saturday. Gale Watches already up along the coast.

3 Winter Storm Warning (pink) and Blizzard Warning (red)

4 Precipitation 2 Day Precipitation forecast ending 7 AM Sunday, Feb 7, This is how much liquid water could be expected if the precipitation fell as all rain. Note 2.62 inch bulls-eye off the Delmarva coast. Models have been Consistent in Keeping max precip Over the Delmarva.

5 Snow Snow is main precipitation threat (as opposed to sleet and freezing rain). Some changeover to sleet is possible in far southern Delaware and in southern Talbot and Caroline counties on the MD eastern shore. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 24 inches possible where heavy snow band sets up. Still looks like the Delmarva and southern NJ will get the most snow from this event. For latest snow total graphic, go to: Best timing for heavy snow is from about 10 PM Friday through noon on Saturday Snowfall rates of 2+ inches per hour possible at the height of the storm, aggravating snow clearing efforts Precipitation could be a wet snow at first, but then become drier (fluffier) near the end. Strong winds could produce near-blizzard like conditions across the Delmarva and southern and eastern NJ. A blizzard warning is in effect for southern New Jersey and Kent and Sussex Counties in Delaware.

6 Strong Winds Gale Warning posted over the coastal waters for this evening through late Friday night. Storm Watch for late Friday night through Saturday evening. On land, areas near Atlantic Coast may see wind gusts over 45 mph Best timing for strong winds is late Friday night through Saturday High risk of blowing and drifting snow

7 Tidal flooding expected along the coast. Right now minor flooding looks to be the most likely category, but low-end moderate flooding is still possible, especially along the Delaware coast. Wave action will also be an issue. The fact that we re between a full moon and a new moon means that normal high tides will be running below average. Tides to watch will be high tides Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning.

8 Tidal flooding expected along the coast. Right now minor flooding looks to be the most likely category, but low-end moderate flooding is still possible, depending on the exact track of the storm. Wave action will also be an issue. The fact that we re between a full moon and a new moon means that normal high tides will be running below average. Tides to watch will be high tides Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning.

9 Situational Awareness Summary Coastal storm set to strike area Friday night, Feb 5 th through a good part of Saturday, Feb 6 th. Heaviest snow expected between 10 PM Friday and Noon Saturday. Storm has the potential to produce 12 to 24 inches of snow (more in the south, less in the north). Blowing and drifting snow likely just about everywhere. Blizzard Warning in effect for parts of southern NJ and central and southern DE. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour (at times), along with blowing snow, will make snow removal difficult. Storm will produce gale force winds over the coastal waters and wind gusts of 45 + MPH over adjacent coastal land areas late Friday through a good part of Saturday. Storm force winds are also possible over the coastal waters during the height of the storm (late Friday night and Saturday). Winds won t be quite as strong further inland, but will still pose problems. Storm will likely produce minor tidal flooding along the coast and back bays. The potential for moderate flooding still exists, especially along the Delaware coast. High tides to watch: Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. Maintain situational awareness; keep track of the latest weather forecasts at weather.gov/phi