WP2: Advanced forecasting models and tools to anticipate W&C event induced impacts

Transcription

1 WP2: Advanced forecasting models and tools to anticipate W&C event induced impacts Overview, challenges, objectives next 6 months Henny A.J. Van Lanen (WP2 lead)

2 WP2 partners o o o o o o o o o o o o Henny van Lanen (WUR, Wageningen, the Netherlands) Paolo Ciavola (CFR, Ferrara, Italy) Paul Smith, Florian Pappenberger (ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom) Daniel Sempere, Marc Berenguer (UPC, Barcelona, Spain) Jarmo Koistinen, Ari-Matti Harri,...(FMI, Helsinki, Finland) Markus.Stoffel, Juan Ballesteros, Martin Beniston (UNIGE, Geneva, Switzerland) Hannah Cloke (UOR, Reading, United Kingdom) Nicola Rebora (CIMA, Savona Italy) Peter Salamon, Michalis Vousdoukas, Juergen Vogt,.. (JRC, Ispra, Italy) Antonio Santiago, Carlos Ruiz (AMAYA, Sevilla, Spain) Enrique Velasco, Arnau Cangros (ACA, Barcelona, Spain) Marien Setti, Patrick Botey (Haute-Corse, France)

3 Mandate (cont d) Forecasting to anticipate Weather and Climate event induced impacts Germany, flooding, early June 2016

4 Mandate (cont d) Forecasting to anticipate Weather and Climate event induced impacts Paris, floods, early June 2016

5 Mandate (cont d) Forecasting to anticipate Weather and Climate event induced impacts Paris, floods, early June 2016

6 Mandate (cont d) Water crises most serious threat

7 WP2 role (cont d) Place of WP2 in the ANYWHERE project

8 WP2 Objectives MAIN GOAL To establish the tools to forecast the hazards induced by W&C events and the resulting impacts to be implemented in the operational MH-EWS (WP3).

9 WP2 Objectives (cont d) o Make meteorological forecasts and nowcasts tailor-made available to anticipate hazards induced by Weather and Climate (W&C events) to combine these with: (i) existing local high-resolution models (ii) remote sensing (iii) local sensors (iv) other available local information about the real impacts

10 WP2 Objectives (cont d) o Integrate advanced existing algorithms to forecast and nowcast hazards induced by W&C events and their associated impacts (i) wide range of W&C natural hazards (ii) various spatial and temporal scales (iii) prevailing geo-climatic settings across Europe (iv) adapt these to be implemented in the operational MH-EWS (WP3).

11 WP2 scope Natural hazards to be covered: o Floods, flash floods, incl. related landslides, debris flow o Storm surges o Heat waves and health o Wild fires Added (in proposal phase): o Drought o Convective storms, severe winds and heavy snowfall

12 WP2 Tasks T2.1 Tailor-making meteorological forecasts and nowcasts to anticipate W&C events associated hazards and impacts o Make spot-on meteorological forecasts available as main dynamical input for the impact forecast algorithms (T ). Best available NWP forecasts (local high-resolution up to regional NWP models) Finnish Meteorological Institute

13 WP2 Tasks T2.2 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithm to assess floods, flash floods, debris-flow and landslides impacts o Riverine floods Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

14 WP2 Tasks T2.2 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithm to assess floods, flash floods, debris-flow and landslides impacts o Flash floods Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya

15 WP2 Tasks T2.3 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithm to assess storm surges impacts o pan-europe Università di Ferrara

16 WP2 Tasks T2.3 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithm to assess storm surges impacts o Detailed scale Università di Ferrara

17 WP2 Tasks T2.4 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithms to assess weather-induced heat waves and health impacts o Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) (combines weather data from NWP forecasts and re-analyses data, with physiological strain, behaviour and the autonomous human thermoregulatory system) University of Reading

18 WP2 Tasks T2.5 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithms to assess weather-induced fire impacts o Pan-European Fire algorithms (incl. EFFIS) European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

19 WP2 Tasks T2.5 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithms to assess weather-induced fire impacts o National and local (RISICO; Canadian FWI; daily; 50 m to 10 km) CIMA Research Foundation International Centre on Environmental Monitoring

20 WP2 Tasks T2.5 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithms to assess weather-induced fire impacts o National and local (PROPAGATOR; fire front propagation; 20 m) CIMA Research Foundation International Centre on Environmental Monitoring

21 WP2 Tasks T2.6 Forecasting algorithm to assess drought impacts o Anomalies: standardized variables (SPI, SPEI, SGI, SRI,..), incl. EDO o Threshold approaches Wageningen University

22 WP2 Tasks T2.6 Forecasting algorithm to assess drought impacts o Anomalies: standardized variables (SPI, SPEI, SGI, SRI,..), incl. EDO o Threshold approaches

23 WP2 Tasks T2.7 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithms to assess the impacts of convective storms, severe winds and heavy snowfall o Hailfall (incl. stone size) Finnish Meteorological Institute

24 WP2 Tasks T2.7 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithms to assess the impacts of convective storms, severe winds and heavy snowfall o Strong blasts of wind Finnish Meteorological Institute

25 WP2 Tasks T2.7 Nowcasting and forecasting algorithms to assess the impacts of convective storms, severe winds and heavy snowfall o Strong blasts of wind - Fallen trees - Electricity breaks Finnish Meteorological Institute

26 Operational platforms pan-eu scale Flood notifications March 2016

27 Operational platforms pan-eu scale Drought May 2016

28 Operational platforms pan-eu scale Forest danger, 5 June 2016

29 WP2 products Deliverable (1 st project year) o First version of the algorithms and products to forecast impacts of W&C induced hazards at adequate timespace resolution for different geo-climatic settings across Europe to be transferred to WP3 (M09) Final version: M19 Milestone (1 st project year) o Presentation of the algorithms and tools to the responders and users during the 2 nd Workshop (M12).

30 WP2 Objectives (cont d) o Assess robustness of the algorithms to forecast natural hazards and their associated impacts under worst-case climate change projections (i) frequency, duration, severity and scale of future extreme events (i) coinciding natural hazards (contemporary and future) Courtesy Trevor Bishop (UK EA)

31 WP2 Objectives (cont d) o Assess uncertainty of forecasted W&C event induced hazards and associated impacts (i) probabilistic procedures (ii) various geo-climatic settings across Europe

32 Thank you The WP2 team looks forward to a sunny and warm cooperation to cope with extreme W&C events

33 WP2 role Place of WP2 in the ANYWHERE project