Satellite data for hydrological forecasting

Transcription

1 Satellite data for hydrological forecasting Current use at ECMWF and perspective Shopping list! Our current tools does not allow direct use, but could be modified Christel Prudhomme ECMWF February 27, 2018

2 /23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague The European Flood Awareness System EFAS notification system 2 - Model European twice 3 Products daily discharge Post-processing Warta, PL 21/02/ UTC LISFLOOD Real-time data (EU-FLOOD-GIS/ETN-R) 1- Data (obs and NWP) Historical Data Static Data Europ. Data Layers Meteo Data / forecasts 5 Possible actions Spatial resolution 5 km EFAS partner network Alert EFAS user interface Expert Knowledge of Member States 4 Alerts No satellite information used

3 Hydrological forecasting How much water is in my river? Atmospheric forcing -> when/ where precipitation -> evaporative losses Land surface initial states -> water already in the catchment (soil, snow, reservoirs) -> saturation of stores in the catchment

4 Hydrological modelling in general, and forecasting at ECMWF Static information but could be regularly/dynamically updated Vegetation phenology -> Proxy for irrigated area -> Water resource/ evaporation feedback River network < 10m (width, geometry) Lakes/ wetlands extend Reservoir level -> reservoir management Land use Crop/ vegetation cycles Population centres/ movement -> water use (droughts) -> exposure/ impact High resolution urban area information < 2m -> better process understanding -> better runoff/ infiltration EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS 4

5 /23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague Hydrological forecast at ECMWF - Near real time information EFAS notification system 2 - Model LISFLOOD European twice daily discharge Real-time data (EU-FLOOD-GIS/ETN-R) 1- Data (obs and NWP) Historical Data Static Data Europ. Data Layers Meteo Data / forecasts Last observation input (once per 24h) Spatial resolution 5 km Start forecast (every 12 h; soon 6h) Expert Knowledge of Member States Fill-in period Atmospheric forcing from climatology Up to 18 h Real-time Precip -> better forcing and initial conditions at start forecast Soil moisture -> better store stock/ initial conditions at start forecast

6 /23/02 0:00 8/24/02 0:00 8/25/02 0:00 8/26/02 0:00 8/27/02 0:00 8/28/02 0:00 8/29/02 0:00 8/30/02 0:00 8/31/02 0:00 Dessau/Rosslau Wittenberg Torgau Riesa Dresden Labe Decin Labe/Usti N.L. Vltava/Prague Hydrological forecast at ECMWF - Near real time information EFAS notification system 2 - Model European twice daily discharge Post-processing LISFLOOD 3 Products Warta, PL 21/02/ UTC Real-time data (EU-FLOOD-GIS/ETN-R) 1- Data (obs and NWP) Historical Data Static Data Europ. Data Layers Meteo Data / forecasts Expert Knowledge of Member States Spatial resolution 5 km Stat post-processing to reduce Discharge errors -> River water level/ discharge -> Soil moisture anomalies (drought) -> Flood/ wetland extent All if possible at <10m resolution, hourly

7 Flash flood indicator and verification? Very limited global information (discharge and flood) Database e.g. FloodList.com Limited coverage e.g. 2,962 events record from 2015 present 50 km 2 < Ups Area < 2000 km 2 Lightening, as proxy for flash flood (convective activities)

8 Coastal flooding? Red is flooding as recorded by lower backscatter in Jan. 11 Sentinel 1 SAR image, compared to previous image Dec. 24. Image courtesy of the European Space Agency Surface water depth coastal area -> backwater movement simulation -> DA in hydrological models for improved costal flood forecasting systems? 8

9 Thank you 9