European Flooding, Summer 2013
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1 European Flooding, Summer 2013 Fredrik ikwetterhall Florian Pappenberger, Clement Albergel, Lorenzo Alfieri, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Konrad Bogner, Thomas Haiden, Tim Hewson, Linus Magnusson, Patricia de Rosnay, Joaquin Munoz Sabater, Ivan Tsonevsky ECMWF 1 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 The operational forecasting system at ECMWF 1 high resolution forecast: twice per day 16 km up to 10 days ahead 51 Ensemble forecasts (ENS): twice daily 30/60km up to 15 days ahead ECMWF-ENS 24/1/ UTC ECMWF 2 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 1
2 The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) Hydrology Flood forecasts ENS Warning ECMWF 3 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Floods in Central Europe May/June 2013 In Germany, around 10,000 were forced to leave their homes in low lying areas of Saxony and Bavaria as many rivers across the country broke their banks and spilled over the countryside The Bavarian town of Passau, where three rivers meet, saw floods at their highest level in more than 500 years Hungary declared a state of emergency The floods in Czech republic was extreme, but not as devastating as in 2002 ECMWF 4 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 2
3 Synoptic chart 31 May UTC ECMWF 5 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Meteorological and hydrological background The weather was very wet in May before the floods, providing a very wet soil and higher than normal waters in the rivers 3-day precipitation 31May-3 June ECMWF 6 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 In just 3 days large areas experienced over 100 mm rain with peaks in the Alps close to 200 mm (points > 400mm) 100mm ~ 4 inches Page 3
4 Meteorological and hydrological background Soil moisture anomaly in May 2013 compared with the mean from ECMWF 7 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Rainfall on non saturated soils ECMWF 8 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 4
5 Rainfall on saturated soils ECMWF 9 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 ECMWF forecasts ECMWF 10 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 5
6 ECMWF forecasts High resolution deterministic D3 D3.5 D4 D4.5 D5 D5.5 D6 D6.5 D7 D7.5 D8 D9.5 D8.5 ECMWF 11 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 D9 Observed At short range the area of the heaviest precipitation is spot on but the values are underestimated At longer ranges the model produces a large precip event near the area in every run though less extreme ECMWF Rainfall 31 May 3 June 2013 Total precipitation over 3 days Observations Forecast ECMWF 12 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 6
7 Rainfall 31 May 3 June 2013 (3 days) ALARO Local model (5 km resolution): OK on 100 km scale but local maxima underestimated ALARO forecast ECMWF (16 km resolution): significant underestimation of orographic effects ECMWF HRES t+0-72h ECMWF forecast ECMWF 13 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Ensemble forecasts for 31 May 2 June ENS probabilities for >100 mm Some weak signal already 8 9 days in advance, gets stronger closer to the event from day 5 6 From day 4 5 the area of the maximum observed precipitation was highlighted nicely by the probabilities (up to %) Day 7-9 Day 1-3 Day 3-5 Day 5-7 ECMWF 14 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 7
8 Comparison between models: 31 May 3 June 2013 OBS Max: ~200mm ECMWF 0 72h Max: ~150mm UKMO 0 72h Max: ~160mm NCEP (USA) 0 72h Max: ~185mm ECMWF 15 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Hydrological forecasts ECMWF 16 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 8
9 Warnings Floods in Central Europe June EFAS flood watches and alerts were issued between 28 th and 31 st May for some major rivers in central Europe (Elbe, Danube, Rhine, Odra) up to 8 days in advance An additional EFAS watch for extreme precipitation and possible flash flooding was issued for the border area Austria/Germany ECMWF 17 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Extreme precipitation index (EPIC) EPIC is based on the concept of rarity of a forecast (EPIC is catchment based and hence more hydrologically meaningful). The image shows EFAS EPIC forecasts of extreme precipitation and possible flash flooding (red triangles) in south east Germany and western Austria on 2nd 3rd June (watch sent on the 1st June) ECMWF 18 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 9
10 Flood warning for Passau, Germany 30 May 2013 Donau at Passau (DE), 30/5/2013 ECMWF 19 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Flood warning for Elbe at Wittenberge 1 June 2013 Elbe at Wittenberge (DE), 1/6/2013 ECMWF 20 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 10
11 Can we improve the precipitation forecast? ECMWF 21 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Model orography for different resolutions 60 km 30 km 16 km 10 km ECMWF 22 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 11
12 Precipitation for different resolutions 60 km 30 km 16 km 10 km ECMWF 23 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Accumulated rainfall different model resolutions Precipitation (mm) km 30 km 16 km 10 km Observed 20 0 Resolution ECMWF 24 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 12
13 Summary of floods in Europe, June 2013 Important factors in heavy precipitation process - orographic lifting - advection of warm and moist air towards the Alps from the north Strong signal of extreme precipitation i i in ECMWF forecast although lh h underestimating the largest rainfall amounts EFAS sent out a number of warnings, and the event was predicted, but the amount was as with the precipitation; under predicted Experiments with higher resolution in the atmospheric models show some improvement in the magnitude, but the amount of precipitation was still underestimated Still work to be done to fully capture extreme precipitation! ECMWF 25 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Thank you for your attention! Questions? ECMWF 26 Understanding the Weather of 2013 RMetS, Exeter, 8 February 2014 Page 13
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