Forecast-based financing

Transcription

1 Forecast-based financing Forecast-based financing (FbF) developed from a long-standing element in Climate Centre work: assisting the mainstreaming of the early warning early action model into Red Cross Red Crescent disaster management worldwide. It recognizes that there are often forecasts available but no humanitarian organization resourced to act before disaster, especially when there is no certainty and a risk of acting in vain. With their government s support, the German Red Cross (GRC) secured flexible preparedness funds for actions specified in standard operating procedures. Twice-yearly dialogue platforms under the IFRC umbrella began in Geneva in July 2015 as part of a German Federal Foreign Office Action Plan on climate, coordinated by the GRC, centring on FbF pilots and operations by National Societies and the World Food Programme (WFP). In December 2015, the three organizations jointly unveiled the first fully operational use of the forecast-based approach including a release of funds through the WFP s Food Security Climate Resilience Facility in Guatemala and Zimbabwe where drought risk is high due to El Niño. Forecast-based financing has now been used operationally by the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement in Uganda twice (photo) and in Peru. The Federal Foreign Office s Action Plan also includes FbF pilots by the WFP or National Societies in Bangladesh, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Mozambique, Nepal and the Philippines. FbF was jointly endorsed recently by UN OCHA and the IFRC, and also included in the International Federation s special report ahead of the World Humanitarian Summit in Istanbul, which included a pledge to facilitate a doubling of FbF within the Movement by 2018, as well as Secretary General Elhadj As Sy s address at a high-level panel there on natural disasters and climate change. In 2015 the Netherlands government became the second to publicly support the groundbreaking concept, which has also now been strongly advocated by the Australian Red Cross. A technical discussion of forecast-based financing was published in the journal of the European Geosciences Union, and the Climate Centre has produced a report on research priorities with Reading University in the UK. FbF-related videos are being gathered in an album on our Vimeo channel.

2 1. Second humanitarian distribution in Uganda under forecast-based financing 03/05/ by the Climate Centre The Katakwi district branch of the Uganda Red Cross Society (URCS) Friday carried out another humanitarian distribution, for just over 2000 people, in response to forecast flood-danger in the east of the country where seasonal rains are peaking. They are part of the URCS forecast-based financing (FbF) programme supported by the German government and Red Cross, with technical support from the Climate Centre. The latest forecast, from the European Commission s Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), backed up by the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), said water levels would cross a specified threshold of hazard in May the trigger established as part of FbF. Each of nearly 400 households in the villages of Akulonyo, Apedu, Omatai and Oroboai received water-purification tablets, two jerrycans, five storage-sacks and two bars of soap. Established rains When the URCS received the trigger alert, it briefed the district authorities on the planned actions, and later partnered with doctors from WATESO, a Ugandan water NGO, who showed people how to use the purification tablets and identify early signs of malaria. (A malaria spike is a risk from floods locally.) District Water Engineer, Phillip Opate, said he appreciated the Red Cross work in having an early forecast that informed the community to get prepared in case of emergency. This was the second distribution of its kind in Uganda under the FbF programme and the third by the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement worldwide. A similar distribution was carried out in eastern Uganda last November; in Peru in March, meanwhile, at least 1100 families living in areas vulnerable to heavy rains linked to El Niño received relief from the Peruvian Red Cross.

3 The UNMA, in its current seasonal climate outlook for the north-eastern region, said steady seasonal rains were expected to get established in mid-april, peaking in early to mid-may. Whole river-basins? Satellite photos showed the November GloFAS forecast that triggered the first Ugandan distribution accurately predicted the floods, which occurred about a week after the humanitarian action by the Red Cross. The URCS later issued a domestic appeal for US$ 2.8m (subsequently scaled down) for flood relief in a wider area around, but not including, the project villages; more than 26,000 people were then living in makeshift accommodation, according to local media reports. The National Society has not requested other international assistance with its response to the floods. It s hoped FbF currently a bilateral Red Cross Red Crescent project will eventually be scaled up to encompass at least whole river-basins. A district health officer assists Uganda Red Cross volunteers with Friday s humanitarian distribution under forecast-based financing in Omatai village; three other villages were also covered. (Photo: Denis Onyodi/URCS) 2. FbF distribution in Peru second of its kind by the Movement worldwide 16/03/ by the Climate Centre A humanitarian distribution under Forecastbased Financing (FbF) has now been carried out in the rain-swept north of Peru, in only the second exercise of its kind in the world by the Red Cross Red Crescent after asimilar distribution in Uganda in November. At least 1100 Peruvian families living in areas vulnerable to heavy rains linked to El Niño received non-food items (NFI) from the Peruvian Red Cross (PRC) last week, as part of the FbF programme supported by the German government and Red Cross with technical advice from the Climate Centre. The operation was also reported in local media. Seasonal forecasts at the end of 2015 and more recent short-term forecasts of heavy rain triggered NFI that included water purification, fumigation against disease-carrying

4 mosquitoes, sanitation measures and hygiene kits to families in the communities of Laynas, Huaquilla, Serran (photo) and Pedregal. The communities were selected as the most vulnerable after a joint assessment involving local and regional authorites and the Red Cross, but have not actually suffered flooding. Thirty Red Cross volunteers who conducted the distribution also provided advice on early warning, first aid, health, and shelter. Heavy rain, flash floods Olveis Pizarro, a Serran community member, said Red Cross training had enabled people to strengthen their own cooperation, while Berenilda Aguirre of Huaquilla said: We are glad to have been trained to prepare for a disaster. Now we are a close-knit community, and much less concerned. The Red Cross is assisting a total of some 2,000 vulnerable families in the departments of Piura and Lambayeque as part of the FbF programme in the country. Red Cross staff and volunteers have also attended refresher courses attended by local government and civil defence officials. Training and household awareness-raising measures were first triggered by relatively lowprobability seasonal forecasts in November, while heavy rain and flash floods recently swept across more than half the country s administrative regions. An FbF workshop and field exercise on emergency shelter was held last week by the Red Cross branch in the Lambayeque capital, Chiclayo, and was joined by Santiago Luengo, emergencyshelter officer at the IFRC s Pan-American Disaster Response Unit, who helped the Peruvian teams facilitate. FbF links thresholds of probability triggers with preparedness actions arrayed as standard operating procedures that include assignment of humanitarian responsibilities before an extreme event is forecast to occur; though in the end it may not. El Niño The Peruvian Red Cross has now mapped out a comprehensive programme of FbF interventions that include early warning, first aid, health, water and sanitation, and shelter in flood-prone communities. Forecast-based Financing is a bilateral programme of the German Red Cross in nine countries; Climate Centre specialists are providing technical support for the forecast triggers. The concept was fully unveiled as a new approach for the humanitarian sector by the IFRC and the World Food Programme in a joint December statement. In its original sense El Niño was named for the warm-water current that periodically flows along the coast of Ecuador and Peru, disrupting the local fishery, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change glossary. The possibility increasing to near certainty of a strong El Niño was first identified by Peruvian and international and meteorological institutions early last year.

5 Seasonal forecasts late last year and more recent short-term forecasts of heavy rain triggered non-food assistance that included water purification, fumigation against disease-carrying mosquitoes, sanitation measures and hygiene kits to families in the communities of Laynas, Huaquilla, Serran (pictured) and Pedregal, in north-east Peru. (Photo: Angela Zapata/German Red Cross and Climate Centre) 3. German-supported forecast-based action in Bangladesh will be all-cash 22/04/ by the Climate Centre Planning for the operational roll-out of forecast-based financing (FbF) in Bangladesh is now at an advanced stage, with an established consensus after a series of climate-risk analysis meetings with communities in favour of cash-based preparedness actions in both flood- and cyclone-prone project areas. FbF in Bangladesh supported by the German government was inaugurated at an assessment workshop in the capital, Dhaka, last October attended by the Secretary General of the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS), Huq Mozharul, and the German ambassador, Thomas Prinz, as well as representatives of the German Red Cross (GRC) and the World Food Programme (WFP) an FbF partner agency in the country. Mr Prinz last month took part in a focus-group discussion in Ishwar, a char (river island formed by sedimentation) community in Hatiya sub-district of Noakhali a cyclone-prone area in the south-east of the country. Evacuations Climate-risk workshops were also held in Noakhali and in Bogra district a flood-prone area of north-west Bangladesh with District Disaster Management Committees. Bangladesh has one of the most complex disaster profiles in the world, with a mix of climatic, seismic and industrial hazards across the country. Within the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, the BDRCS has also been long regarded as one of the most experienced and able National Societies in the field of disaster preparedness and the early warning early action model from which FbF has developed especially in the field of cyclone preparedness.

6 In flood-prone areas, some Bangladeshi households need to evacuate each year, or at least once every two years; strong cyclones necessitating evacuations occur roughly once every five years in the vicinity of Hatiya and slightly less often on the coastal mainland. FbF, being implemented by the BDRCS with technical support from the German Red Cross and Climate Centre, is intended to cover a total of 4,500 households (20,500 people ) in eight vulnerable villages. Humanitarian model German-supported forecast-based financing has now been used twice by the Movement, in Uganda and most recently in Peru. The German Federal Foreign Office action plan on climate, coordinated by the GRC, includes FbF pilots by National Societies or the WFP in Bangladesh, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Mozambique, Nepal, Peru and the Philippines. FbF was last December unveiled at the global level as a new humanitarian operating model by the IFRC and the WFP in a joint press release issued in Rome, Geneva and the COP 21 UN climate talks in Paris. Planning for forecast-based financing with the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, supported by the German Red Cross and government and the Climate Centre. A focus group with farmers in Kamalpur union, Sariakandi upazila of Bogra district, agrees priority actions that will centre on cash assistance. (Photo: German Red Cross)