Modelling Black Saturday
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- Jade Gardner
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1 Modelling Black Saturday M 1 ( ) e R ε er School of Mathematical Sciences Monash University and Chermelle Engel (School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne) Todd Lane (School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne) Mike Rezny (ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science)
2 ACCESS Simulation of Black Saturday UM version 7.5 Nested: global/12 km/4 km/1 km/500 m 70 levels Staggered initialization ( ): global 03Z, 12 km 03Z, 4 km 06Z, 1 km 09Z, 500 m 12Z. Updated high resolution topography (shown every 300 m from 100 m onwards). Modification to number of levels used for the boundary layer parameterization in 4 km/1 km/ 500 m.
3 ACCESS 12 km Simulation of Black Saturday MSLP 1300 LST 7 February 2009 L L H H L
4 ACCESS 12 km Simulation of Black Saturday MSLP 1300 LST 7 February 2009 L L H H L The flow is characterised by the classic hyperbolic deformation field.
5 ACCESS 12 km Simulation of Black Saturday 850 mb θ 350 K PV and 300 mb height The model develops a strong coastal front. Rossby wave breaking and PV stirring.
6 Time Series on Black Saturday Time series of pressure, temperature, wind speed and wind direction from Moorbbin Airport (grey) and from the ACCESS model (black). undular bore daytime mixing coastal front synoptic front undular bore Four distinct mesoscale phenomena: undular bore(s); strong prefrontal crossisentropic mixing; coastal front; and synoptic front.
7 Undular Bores on Black Saturday undular bore undular bore Time series from Moorbbin Airport (grey) and from the ACCESS model (black).
8 The hydraulic jump is the simplest kind of bore. What is a Bore?
9 Undular Bores 23 September 2006 The morning glory is a series of low-level roll clouds that occur early in the morning at places around the southeastern part of the Gulf region. The morning glory is an undular bore. Photos: Richard McFarlane
10 Undular Bore over the Great Australian Bight Before Black Saturday MODIS Satellite Image 6 February 2009 On the day before Black Saturday, an undular bore developed on the marine stable layer ahead of the synoptic cold front. I believe bores commonly develop over the Bight ahead of cold fronts. Bore Cold Front
11 Black Saturday Morning Prefrontal Bore The bore arrives two and a half hours too early in the model (0300 LST). The model bore is too weak. w at 500 m (ms -1 ) 0300 LST w (ms -1 ) and θ (K) Bore 0300 LST
12 Black Saturday Evening Prefrontal Bore Yarrawonga Radar 2010 LST 7 February LST 8 February 2009 Radar images: Alan Seed Smoke plume from the Beechworth fire.
13 Black Saturday Evening Prefrontal Bore The bore arrives at Yarrawonga around 2220 LST, which is about 2 hours too early. The bore reinvigorated the Beechworth fires. The bore appears to be bound to the front. Flow splitting around the mountain range. θ (K) at 500 m and wind vectors 2200 LST w (ms -1 ) and θ (K) w (ms -1 ) at 500 m 2200 LST 2200 LST 2220 LST
14 Prefrontal Mixed Layer on Black Saturday Time series from Moorbbin Airport (grey) and from the ACCESS model (black). The maximum model and observed temperature agree very well. Record temperature in Melbourne 46.4 o C. daytime mixing
15 Prefrontal Mixed Layer on Black Saturday θ (K) at 500 m and wind vectors 1300 LST w (ms -1 ) at 500 m 1300 LST The model produces pronounced boundary layer rolls aligned with the shear. Horizontal wavelength around 8-10 km. w (ms -1 ) and θ (K) 1300 LST
16 Prefrontal Mixed Layer on Black Saturday MODIS Satellite Image 7 February BL Rolls Smoke Plumes and PyroCb The observed cloud field is aligned along the shear also.
17 Black Saturday Cold Fronts Time series from Moorbbin Airport (grey) and from the ACCESS model (black). The coastal front is delayed in the model by about half an hour. Observations show two fronts (a coastal front and a synoptic front) whereas the model only captures the coastal front. coastal front synoptic front
18 Black Saturday Cold Fronts θ (K) at 500 m and wind vectors
19 Black Saturday Cold Fronts θ (K) at 500 m and wind vectors 1715 LST w (ms -1 ) at 500 m 1715 LST The leading edge of the coastal front is marked by a strong, but very narrow updraught.
20 Black Saturday Cold Fronts w (ms -1 ) contours and θ (K) coloured 1715 LST 1730 LST The coastal front has the structure of an unsteady gravity current. The boundary layer rolls are superimposed on the front.
21 Gravity Current Simulation Phil Cunningham
22 Frontal Instabilities Topography, Potential Temperature and Winds in the Cross-Section height (km) distance (km) K 316
23 Frontal Instabilities Topographic Height, Potential Temperature and Horizontal Winds longitude latitude 296 K 316
24 Frontal Instabilities No strain Strained
25 Black Saturday FFDI 1300 LST 1500 LST The Forest Fire Danger Index is an empirical measure of the potential severity of a fire LST 1900 LST
26 Black Saturday FFDI 1300 LST 1500 LST The Forest Fire Danger Index is an empirical measure of the potential severity of a fire. It is the key measure of fire danger used in Australia. The rating is scaled so that Black Friday 1939 is 100. A total fire ban is triggered at 50. Even so the FFDI has huge spatial and temporal variability LST 1900 LST
27 Conclusions An undular bore formed ahead of the advancing cold front and propagated across southern Victoria in the early hours of Black Saturday. Deep boundary layer rolls developed during the day. A very strong cold front with the structure of a gravity current, develops at the coastline in the afternoon (in excellent agreement with Les Muir s PhD thesis). As the turbulent mixing subsides in the late afternoon, the coastal front surges inland. In the evening, as a stable layer forms, the coastal front develops an undular bore at its leading edge (compare observations over central Australia, where every front produces a bore). As it passed this bore reinvigorated the Beechworth fires.
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