7/12/2010. Andrew Lorenc (Met Office, UK) Peter Steinle (BMRC, Australia) Mickael Tsyrulnikov (HRCR, Russia)
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1 Progress report nd plnned ctivities THORPEX working group on Dt Assimiltion nd Oserving Strtegies Pierre Guthier (UQAM, Cnd,Co-chir) Florence Rier (Météo-Frnce nd CNRS, Frnce, Co-chir) Crl Crdinli (ECMWF, Int) Ron Gelro (GMAO, USA) Ko Koizumi (JMA, Jpn) Rolf Lnglnd (NRL, USA) Andrew Lorenc (Met Office, UK) Peter Steinle (BMRC, Austrli) Mickel Tsyrulnikov (HRCR, Russi) Generl progress AMMA IPY Outline Intercomprison experiment T-PARC Plns 1
2 Report on work performed Impct of oservtions Guidnce for oservtion cmpigns nd the configurtion of the Glol Oserving system Assessment of the vlue of trgeted oservtions ppers y Crdinli, Kelly nd Buizz Evlution of oservtion impct with different systems A-TreC, Ppers y Petersen, Fourrié, Lnglnd.. AMMA IPY (tlk y TE Nordeng) Proposed intercomprison experiment in the context of T-PARC Improving the use of stellite dt Use of sensitivity informtion to do dptive dt selection (ppers y Dndo et l, QJ) Interest group for dt ssimiltion dos-ig@lists.cmc.ec.gc.c Promote ctivities Vrious conferences (AMS/EUMETSAT, EMS.) Pper pulished in NPG in Jnury AMMA A few results otined in the AMMA-THORPEX WG, much more to come in JL Redelsperger s tlk tomorrow 2
3 The ECMWF AMMA renlysis Ann Agustí-Pnred, Crl Crdinli, Jen-Philippe Lfore, Period: 1 My 30 Septemer 2006 Resolution: T511 (~40 km), L91 Extr dt used: sonde profiles of wind, temperture nd humidity extrcted from the AMMA dtse IFS cycle with improved physics: CY32r3 (Bechtold et l., ECMWF Newsletter No. 114, Winter 2007/08, pp ) AMMA rdiosonde humidity is correction (Agustí-Pnred et l. 2008, sumitted to Q.J.R.Meteorol.Soc) Agusti-Pnred et l Rdiosonde RH Bis correction Well-documented dry is for Visl sonde types (e.g. Wng et l., 2002, Nuret et l., 2008). Motivtion: In West Afric mny rdiosondes re locted within region of strong low-level level moisture grdient nd there is lck of ppn in the short-rnge forecst over Shel. Cn e used in dt impct studies of enhnced AMMA rdiosonde network, AMMA renlysis experiment nd wter udget studies within the AMMA project. Bsed on the ECMWF opertionl RS is correction implemented in CY32r3. Min differences etween AMMA nd OPER. RS RH is correction: Tkes into ccount the dependence of is on the oserved RH vlues, which is very importnt in the Shel ecuse of its pronounced sesonl cycle. Agusti-Pnred et l 3
![correction: RESULTS Men totl dily PPN FC (T+42-T+18) [mm/dy] 1 to 31 Aug 2006, 12](/docs-images/96/126576346/images/4-4.jpg "UTC RSBIAS CORRECTION CNTRL OBS: RFE 2.")
4 Rdiosonde (RS) RH Bis correction: RESULTS Comprison with GPS TCWV RS-GPS: BIAS UNCORRECTED RS CORRECTED RS Olivier Bock Agusti-Pnred et l Impct of rdiosonde is correction: RESULTS Men totl dily PPN FC (T+42-T+18) [mm/dy] 1 to 31 Aug 2006, 12 UTC RSBIAS CORRECTION CNTRL OBS: RFE 2.0 (NOAA CPC) CNTRL RSBIAS CORRECTION Agusti-Pnred et l 4
5 CNTR: dt ville on GTS AMMA: dditionl RS profiles AMMABC: with ECMWF specil is correction PreAMMA: with 2005 RS network Similr results otined t Météo-Frnce: monthly verged RR etter with AMMA dt, nd with is correction Fccni et l DFS= degrees of freedom for signl Clculted for ech sttion, verged August 2006 Lrge impct of dditionl AMMA dt Fccni et l 5
6 Impct of ssimilting low-level level humidity oservtions over lnd on the Africn Monsoon during AMMA Krou et l Assimiltion of MW oservtions over lnd New methods for estimting the lnd surfce emissivity (Krou et l. 2006) opertionl t Météo-Frnce since July First trils: ssimilte low-level level humidity oservtions from AMSU-B over lnd (still rejected) Control Experiment Density of ssimilted AMSU-B Ch5 during August 2006 Impct of ssimilting low-level level humidity oservtions over lnd on the Africn Monsoon during AMMA Impct on nlyses nd forecsts Improvement of the fit to humidity oservtions (HIRS, SSM/I) Ojective scores% rdiosondes: significntly positive Lrge impct on the nlyses of humidity, temperture, wind (surfce to 500 hp) over tropics implying ig chnges in the Monsoon flux Moistening of the Atmo. In EXP Drying of the tmos. In EXP From 01/08/2006 to 14/09/2006 Krou et l 6
7 Cse studies evluted loclly 600hPA reltive humidity nlysis on 25 thjuly 2006 t 1800 Conventionl dt + Stellite CSR dt Conventionl dt only Mum et l Summry of AMMA results Humidity is correction over AMMA region is eneficil Significnt impct of dditionl AMMA RS dt on the nlysis nd on RR Using more stellite dt over lnd lso hs lrge impct in the Tropics More results to come in specil issue Wether nd Forecsting 7
8 Intercomprison of sensitivity to oservtions in the context of the THORPEX Pcific-Asi i regionl cmpign (T-PARC) Contriutions from Crl Crdinli (ECMWF), Ron Gelro (GMAO), Rolf Lnglnd (NRL), Pt Hrr (NPS), Florence Rier nd Gérld Desroziers (Météo-Frnce) Stéphne Lroche nd Simon Pellerin (Environment Cnd) The oservtion impct intercomprison experiment Bseline experiment Common set of oservtions ssimilted y ll centres Assimiltion nd model configurtions Metrics to mesure the impct of oservtions Selection of period Winter phse of T-PARC: Decemer 2008 to Ferury 2009 Period selected: Jnury 2007 oservtions ville were closer to wht would e ville during T-PARC 8
9 Oservtions ssimilted y NRL, GMAO nd ECMWF (lso t Météo-Frnce nd Environment Cnd) Rdiosondes Dropsondes Lnd surfce sttions (ll dt except winds nd humidity) Ship surfce (winds nd p s ) Aircrft (ll dt except humidity) AMV from geosttionry stellites (no rpid-scn winds) MODIS winds AMSU-A A rdinces QuikSct Comprison of the chrcteristics of the systems Anlysis Forecsts NRL T239L30 3D-Vr T239L30 spectrl GMAO 0.5ºx0.67ºL72 6-h 3D-Vr 0.5ºx0.67º L72 Finite Volume model ECMWF T255L60 12-h 4D-Vr T255L60 spectrl 9
![Adjoint of Assimiltion Eqution Bker nd Dley 2000 (QJRMS) 19 Sensitivity to Oservtions: J y [ ] T 1 HPH R HP T K J x Adjoint of forecst model produces sensitivity to x Sensitivity to Bckground: J J T](/docs-images/96/126576346/images/10-0.jpg "J H x x y Oservtion Impct Methodology (Lnglnd nd Bker, 2004) 20 OBSERVATIONS ASSIMILATED e 30 e 24 00UTC + 24h Oservtions move the model stte from the ckground trjectory to the new nlysis trjectory")
10 Adjoint of Assimiltion Eqution Bker nd Dley 2000 (QJRMS) 19 Sensitivity to Oservtions: J y [ ] T 1 HPH R HP T K J x Adjoint of forecst model produces sensitivity to x Sensitivity to Bckground: J J T J H x x y Oservtion Impct Methodology (Lnglnd nd Bker, 2004) 20 OBSERVATIONS ASSIMILATED e 30 e 24 00UTC + 24h Oservtions move the model stte from the ckground trjectory to the new nlysis trjectory The difference in forecst error norms, e24 e30, is due to the comined impct of ll oservtions ssimilted t 00UTC 10
11 Evlution of the impct of oservtions Mesure of the reduction in forecst error e J t x x J t x, x t x J, x x t tt0 T J x 1 2 t t 0 T Evlution t the initil time e y H x x x, x T T T, K L L x x J t J x t tt0 T Sensitivity with respect to nlysis Configurtion of the mesure of forecst error Deprture with respect to verifying nlysis (ech centre uses its own) Dry djoint model 24h (third order) sensitivity grdient (LB04), dry forecst error norm, from surfce to 150hP Forecst Sensitivity to Oservtion impct t 0,6,12,18 (3D-Vr or 4D-Vr 6h) or 00, 12 (4D-Vr 12 h) 11
12 Totl oservtion impct t 00 UTC NAVDAS 24h O Impct Jn z+06z Ships StWind SSMIspd RoDsnd Qsct Windst MODIS LndSfc Aircrft AMSUA Impct per oservtion NAVDAS 24h Impct Per O Jn z+06z Ships StWind SSMIspd Ros Qsct Windst MODIS LndSfc Aircrft AMSUA ECMWF 24 h Impct per Os Jn UTC Ships StWind RoDsnd Qsct MODIS LndSfc Aircr ft AMSU-A
13 WMO Workshop on impct studies Genev, My 2008 Orgnized y the OPAG-IOS Prticiption of the DAOS Crdinli, Guthier, Gelro, Koizumi, Lnglnd, Rier, Steinle Preliminry results from the intercomprison experiment were presented y Crdinli, Gelro nd Lnglnd DAOS-WG to provide input on the design of the glol oserving system Recommendtion t the workshop to use the djoint sed method to get more detiled ssessment of the impct of oservtions Nice complement to OSEs Comined Use of ADJ nd OSEs (Gelro et l., 2008) ADJ pplied to vrious OSE memers to exmine how the mix of oservtions influences their impcts Removl of AMSUA results in lrge increse in AIRS (nd other) impcts Removl of AIRS results in significnt increse in AMSUA impct Removl of ros results in significnt increse in AMSUA, ircrft nd other impcts (ut not AIRS) 13
14 Comined Use of ADJ nd OSEs (Gelro et l., 2008) ADJ pplied to vrious OSE memers to exmine how the mix of oservtions influences their impcts Removl of AMSUA results in lrge increse in AIRS impct in tropics Removl of wind oservtions results in significnt decrese in AIRS impct in tropics (in fct, AIRS degrdes forecst without stwinds!) PROJECTS RELATED TO THORPEX DAOS WG 1. Oservtion Impct Inter-comprison Study in collortion with Ron Gelro, Crl Crdinli, nd Simon Pellerin. Deliverle: journl pper in Re-nlysis nd evlution of trgeted nd regulr oservtions collected during TCS-08 (Aug-Sep 2007) nd winter T-PARC (Jn- Fe 2008). Methods: OSEs nd djoint-sed oservtion impct. 3. Comprison of systemtic differences in nlyses produced y opertionl forecst centers. Differences re much lrger in res where nlyses re sed primrily on stellite oservtions. 4. Trgeting methods for medium-rnge forecsts. Rolf Lnglnd NRL-Mrine Meteorology Division rolf.lnglnd@nrlmry.nvy.mil 14
15 Summry nd conclusion Vlue of dt deployed during T-PARC Experiment ims t cpturing the different stges of Tropicl cyclones from their genesis to their migrtion into northern ltitudes Vlue of dt over the Pcific for the short to medium-rnge forecsts over Asi nd North Americ Meteorologicl high-impct events in Asi nd North Americ Dt ssimiltion ojectives Assess the impct of oservtions on deterministic nd proilistic ili forecsts Trgeting techniques nd dptive stellite dt ssimiltion Lrge sets of dt will e mde ville tht could e used to etter use stellite dt in those situtions T-PARC driftsonde (Sept. 18, 2008) 15
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