Climate Change: Adaptation Needs for Nuclear Installations

Transcription

1 Climate Change: Adaptation Needs for Nuclear Installations Helga Kromp-Kolb*, Herbert Formayer*, Irene Schicker**, Hannes Bartholl* *Institute of Meteorology, University for Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna ** Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie, Austria From work done for the NEA Group on Climate Change: Assessment of the Vulnerablity of Nuclear Power Plants and Cost of Adaptation

2 Structure Introduction Relevance of weather & climate for nuclear installations Climate Science Changes relevant for efficiency and performance records Changes relevant for siting Changes relevant for nuclear safety Summary of possible effects of climate change on Nuclear Power Plants

3 Nuclear reactor sites in the year (based on WNA 2013c)

4 Milling and Mining Facilities

5 Non-reactor nuclear facilities in the year 2013 (based on IAEA 2013)

6 Weather & Climate-Related External Hazards Avalanche, lahars, landslides & mudflows Biofouling Coastal erosion Dam, dike, or levee failure Drought External fire External flooding Extreme precipitation Extreme winds, hurricanes, and tornadoes Fog Frost High winds Lightning strike River ice and ice jams Salt spray Sand storms and dust storms Temperature extremes Volcanic Ashfall Aircraft crash Co-located facilities Industrial or military facility accident Release of chemicals in onsite storage Shipwreck NRC PRA Procedures Guide NUREG/CR-2300 and others

7 Weather and climate related hazards Direct effects on NPP Indirect effects limit accessibility to the plant (e.g. forest fires or floods), Cascade from other source (e.g. a dam break upstream) affect the electrical grid (e.g. disruptions through falling trees) with consequences for off-site power and / or emission of electric power generated at the plant. Primary or secondary order of impact

8 Weather and climate related hazards Small scale weather events (e.g. tornados) one power plant Large scale phenonema (e.g. heat wave) all plants in the region, some renewable energy plants power demand. systemic approach necessary Single or combined events

9 Climate Science empirical science large uncertainties remain predictions over the last 30 years consistent and successful not all possible or likely consequences equally important safety principle demands that worst case scenario be included

10 Temperature over 131 Years

11 Temperature deviation from mean Annual means Decadal means IPCC AR5 WG1 2013

12 Model validation regional IPCC AR5 WG1 2013

13 Loaded Climate Dice NH Land Areas Hansen /80 01/11 blue/cold 2 1/2 white/normal 2 1 red/hot 2 4 dark /very hot 2 1/2

14 Historic and future global temperature change Knutti and Sedlacek 2012

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16 Changes relevant for efficiency and performance record Temperature Water temperature, availability, quality Eastern USA, Europe, China and Japan C by 2050 and 4-5 C by 2080 (RCP8.5).

17 Sea Surace Temperature Change CMIP5 multimodel ensemble mean of projected changes in sea surface temperature in C for relative to under RCP4.5.

18 SREX 2011 Return periods of 20-years Tmax ( )

19 Change in maximum consecutive dry days (precipitation<1 mm, SRES A2) (adapted from IPCC 2012, 172)

20 Change in consequtive dry days (CDD) dryness σ

21 NPPs potentially affected by heat waves and drought

22 Changes relevant for siting Sea level rise Permafrost melting Drought and desertification

23 Coastline elevation height above sea level m

24 Sea level change RCP8.5 RCP2.6 IPCC AR5 WG1 2013

25 Ensemble mean regional relative sea level change (meters) IPCC 2013

26 Sea level rise Eozän vor 40 Mio. Jahren Sea level rise so far: ca. 15 mm No eqilibrium yet! Courtesy Rahmstorf 2006, with additions

27 Sea Level Rise 40 m Formayer 2012

28 Desertification risk

29 Changes relevant for safety Monsoon El Nino/La Nina Tropical cyclones Extra tropical storms Thunderstorms Changes in Extreme Sea Level Tornados Lightening and hail Floods Extreme Snowfall

30 Monsoon

31 Tropical Cyclones Frequency Frequency cat. 4 & 5 Prec. rate Max. Intensity expected % change in the average over period relative to for SRES A1B

32 Tropical and extra-tropical cyclones

33 Tornados

34 Change signals in Alpine area for daily precipitation Quelle: IPCC, 2007

35 Extreme precipitation events Temperature and precipitation intensity Quelle: Lenderink & Meijgaard, 2008

36 Return periods of 20-years RRmax ( ) SREX 2011

37 Thunderstorms

38 Lightning strikes

39 Fluvial and coastal floods Future trends

40 Total number of documented past events per facility type

41 Summary of Changes IPCC AR5 WG1 2013

42 kaspfyxy

43 Thank you for your attention! Univ. Prof. Dr. Helga Kromp-Kolb University of Natura Resources and Life Sciences Department of Water, Atmosphere and Environment Institute of Meteorology Peter Jordanstraße 82, A-1190 Wien Tel.: , Fax: meteorologie@boku.ac.at,