Operational Ultraviolet Forecast System for South America: Analysis, Evaluation and Measurements
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1 Operational Ultraviolet Forecast System for South America: Analysis, Evaluation and Measurements Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies (CPTEC) Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (INPE) Simone Sievert da Costa Marcos Rodrigues, Marcelo de Paula Correa* and Juan C. Ceballos *Research is under development in collaboration with University of Itajuba - MG
2 TALK OUTLINE Operational UV Forecast System at CPTEC-INPE Webpage (tool for communication / products) method used for the UV index calculation Evaluation of UV index Experimental campaign at Sao Paulo city Temporal and Spatial variation of UV index over Brazil Important information for health sectors to develop campaign to reduce diseases related sun exposure Who are the users/ how information has been used
3 Satellite webpage of CPTEC-INPE
4 Portuguese version
5 Spanish Version Collaboration with Universidad Nacional de Asunción, Paraguay
6 What kind of information is provided on the website?
7 Ozone Concentration NCEP + Forecast (Long et al., 1996-BAMS) Geopotential 500 & 100 hpa Temperature at 50 hpa
8 Forecast of max UV index without clouds at solar noon (recommended by WHO)
9 UV index every 30 min. clear and cloudy. (called UVI Instantaneous)
10
11 How UV index is estimated? Radiative Transfer is developed by Correa et al. (2004) based on Eddington approx. 2π 1 diλ ( µ, φ; τ) ω µ = I + λ λ( µ, φ; τ) o Iλ( µ, φ; τ) P(cos Ψ') dµ dφ dτ 4π 0 1 Input data into RT-Model Ozone Concentration (from NOAA); Cloud (cloud classification from GOES); Surface pressure (from ETA 20 km), Background aerosol (δ=0,2 and ω=0,9) Surface reflectance = 0,3 (urban areas, EPA, WMO-1999) The monocromatic irradiance from 280 to 400 nm S 400nm = λ ελi dλ 280nm [W/m 2 ] Erythemal action spectrum (from MacKinlay and Diffey, 1986) 1 IUV S λ = 25 mw/m 2
12 Clear sky UV index Daily and Seasonal Variation
13 UV index instantaneous 10:30 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
14 UV index instantaneous 11:30 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
15 UV index instantaneous 12:00 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
16 UV index instantaneous 14:00 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
17 UV index instantaneous 15:00 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
18 UV index instantaneous 16:00 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
19 UV index instantaneous 17:30 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
20 UV index instantaneous 18:00 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
21 Cloud Effect on IUV According to Vanicek et al. ( 2000) UVI cld = CMF * UVI clr, where CMF is Cloud Modification Factor that depends on cloud type and cloud cover High Medium Low Fog 0.4 Rain 0.2 Vanicek et al. (2000)
22 Cloud Effect on IUV GOES Cloud Classification: Clouds classification based on GOES Ch 1&4 (Ceballos and Bottino, 2002) Cloud Modification Factor Surface CMF = 1.00 Cirrus CMF = 0.90 Cumulus CMF = 0.70 Stratus CMF = 0.50 Deep convection CMF = 0.30 / multi- layers
23 Cloud Effect on UVI Clear sky UVI GOES12 cloud class. Cloudy UVI
24 What is the performance of UV index estimative? Observation from the project entitled Study on the effect of atmospheric and geographical factors on ultraviolet radiation in São Paulo Funded by FAPESP n 04/ Coordinated by Dr. Marcelo Corrêa and Dr. Juan Ceballos Study area biologically effective ultraviolet radiation measurement UV index Biometer UV501A Solar Light ( nm )
25 Comparison estimative v. observation UV index Observational data: Source: Measurements at São Paulo city, Period: June/ March/ Projeto UVSP (Corrêa et al.) Estimatives: Source: CPTEC-INPE IUV IUV IUV 14,00 14,00 14,00 12,00 12,00 12,00 10,00 10,00 10,00 8,00 8,00 8,00 6,00 6,00 6,00 4,00 4,00 2,00 4,00 2,00 0,00 2,00 0,00 0,00 Mean MMédia UV do index IUV para 09:00 as 9:00 Local hs Média do do IUV IUV para para as as 12:00 15:00 hs Time hs Mean UV index 12:00 15:00 Local Time Janeiro Janeiro Abril Abril Julho Julho Outubro Outubro Janeiro Abril Meses Meses Julho Outubro Meses Obs Obs Obs Sat Sat Est Project PIBIC: Ultraviolet Index Evaluation and Monitoring over São Paulo, Domingues de Paula e Costa (2009)
26 Comparison estimative v. observation Estimative Observation Est. Obs. cloudy sky clear sky Time mean std. mean std. mean std Project PIBIC: Ultraviolet Index Evaluation and Monitoring over São Paulo, Domingues de Paula e Costa (2009)
27 Who are the users? Education Program on UV risk (Ribeirao Preto, SP). São Paulo State Program on Protection of ozone layer of UV index is available together with other variables of weather forecast EPAGI/CIRAM - Empresa de Pesquisa Agropecuária e extensão rural de Santa Catarina/Centro de informações de recursos ambientais e de Hidrometeorologia de SC. FUNDACENTRO Foundation Specialized Service of Safety and Work Medicine In Santa Catarina Bahia Meteorological Center, environmental office Mato Grosso State heath office
28 Thank you Simone Sievert da Costa
29 Long, C.S. et al., "Ultraviolet Index Forecasts Issued by the National Weather Service," Bull. Am. Meteorological Soc. 77, (1996)
30 Role of Meteorology Fonte: Global Solar UV Index A practical guide. OMS, 2003
31 Comparison estimative v. observation UV index Estim ado versus Observado 2005 Estimative Observations from biometer Project PIBIC: Ultraviolet Index Evaluation and Monitoring over São Paulo, Domingues de Paula e Costa (2009)
32 UV index instantaneous 20:00 UTC March June September December low moderate high Very high extreme
33 jun/07 ago/07 fev/07 abr/ IUV - PORTO ALEGRE Clear sky Cloudy sky 1 out/05 dez/05 fev/06 abr/06 jun/06 ago/06 out/06 dez/06 ago/05 IUV
34 jun/07 ago/07 abr/ IUV - SÃO PAULO Clear sky Cloudy sky dez/05 fev/06 abr/06 jun/06 ago/06 out/06 dez/06 fev/07 CÉU S/ NUVENS CÉU C/ NUVENS 2 ago/05 out/05 IUV
35 jun/07 ago/07 abr/ IUV - SALVADOR Clear sky Cloudy sky dez/05 fev/06 abr/06 jun/06 ago/06 out/06 dez/06 fev/07 CÉU S/ NUVENS CÉU C/ NUVENS 3 ago/05 out/05 IUV
36 jun/07 ago/07 fev/07 abr/ IUV - BÉLEM Clear sky Cloudy sky 4 out/05 dez/05 fev/06 abr/06 jun/06 ago/06 out/06 dez/06 ago/05 IUV
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