The Brazilian Atlas for Solar Energy. Fernando Ramos Martins

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1 The Brazilian Atlas for Solar Energy Fernando Ramos Martins

2 LABREN - Laboratory for Modelling and Studies of Renewable Energy Resources The multidisciplinary laboratory LABREN- CCST- INPE, carries out research and teaching activities in energy meteorology and in the climate system influence on energy resources making use of satellite data, computational modelling and observational data. Research Topics: Assessment of solar and wind energy resources Short and medium- term forecast of solar and wind generation Energy and global climatic changes Site- specific measurements, characterization and modelling of solar and wind resources 2 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

3 Laboratory for Numerical Modelling applied to Renewable Resources The interdisciplinary laboratory dealing with research and teaching activities in numerical modelling and meteorological and environmental data acquisition. Research Topics: Wind and Solar Resource Assessment based on satellite and ground data Short and medium- term forecast of solar and wind resources Atmospheric aerosols Site- specific measurements, characterization of solar and wind resources Geographical Information Systems using ground and satellite data to investigate scenarios about solar and wind energy resources 3 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

4 Energy security and sustainable development Population growth + emerging economies = more energy needs Brazil high availability of renewable energy resources Increase energy security diversifying electricity matrix Lack of reliable data applied to energy sector Global warming- related scenarios demand increasing penetration of clean and renewable technologies to minimize emissions 4 29/08/15 Problemática a questão da energia e os recursos renováveis

5 Solar energy resource assessments 5 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

6 GIS products 6 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

7 Numerical Modeling based on satellite data INPE s supercomputer 244 TFlps/s 7 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

8 Ground data acquisition and handling SONDA/INPE São Martinho da Serra radiation station (BSRN & AeroNet) 8 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

9 Research & Teaching % % Freqüência % 60% 40% 20% 0-100% -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% 65% 75% 85% 95% Mais 0% Postgraduate studies Doctorate in Earth System Science Training courses Solar and Wind Energy data acquisition 9 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

10 Technical Requirements to apply for solar energy auctions according to the Brazilian regulations Certified solar database is the major requirement Certifications must follow recommendations of Brazilian and international agencies like IEC (International Electrothecnical Commission), ABNT, INPE e INMETRO; MME ordinance n o. 21/2008 establishes: At least one year of GHI data acquisition for solar power plants without concentrators: At least one year of DNI data acquisition for concentrating solar power plants After 2018, three years of DNI data acquisition for concentrating solar power plants

11 Technical Requirements to apply for solar energy auctions according to the Brazilian regulations Certified solar database is the major requirement Certifications must follow recommendations of Brazilian and international agencies like IEC (International Electrothecnical Commission), ABNT, INPE e INMETRO; MME ordinance n o. 21/2008 establishes: At least one year of GHI data acquisition for solar power plants without concentrators: At least one year of DNI data acquisition for concentrating solar power plants After 2018, three years of DNI data acquisition for concentrating solar power plants

12 Technical Requirements to apply for solar energy auctions according to the Brazilian regulations Certified solar database is the major requirement Certifications must follow recommendations of Brazilian and international agencies like IEC (International Electrothecnical Commission), ABNT, INPE e INMETRO; MME ordinance n o. 21/2008 establishes: At least one year of GHI data acquisition for solar power plants without concentrators: At least one year of DNI data acquisition for concentrating solar power plants After 2018, three years of DNI data acquisition for concentrating solar power plants

13 Technical Requirements to apply for solar energy auctions according to the Brazilian regulations Certified solar database is the major requirement Certifications must follow recommendations of Brazilian and international agencies like IEC (International Electrothecnical Commission), ABNT, INPE e INMETRO; MME ordinance n o. 21/2008 establishes: At least one year of GHI data acquisition for solar power plants without concentrators: At least one year of DNI data acquisition for concentrating solar power plants After 2018, three years of DNI data acquisition for concentrating solar power plants

14 Solar Data Requirements to apply for solar energy auctions according to the Brazilian regulations The solar data acquisition has to meet the following criteria: FIRST CLASS equipment sensor redundancy for GHI data; meteorological data acquisition are required : air temperature, relative humidity and wind speed; data acquisition frequency of 1 s; data records of average values every 10 minutes; less than 10% of missing data; periods of data acquisition failures no longer than 15 days.

15 BSRN de São Martinho da Serra, RS

16 Data Acquisition FIRST CLASS Pyranometers

17 ISO 9060 Pyranometer Specifications Secondary Standard First Class Second Class Data Acquisition FIRST CLASS Pyranometers Response time: time to reach 95% response < 15s < 30s < 60s Zero-offset: Offset-A: response to 200 Wm 2 net thermal radiation, ventilated Offset-B: response to 5 K/h change in ambient temperature + 7 ± 2 Wm ± 2 Wm ± 2 Wm 2 Non-stability: % change in responsivity per year ± 0.8% ± 1.5% ± 3% Non-linearity: % deviation from responsivity at 500 Wm 2 due to change in irradiance from Wm 2 ± 0.5% ± 1% ± 3% Directional response (for beam irradiance): range of errors caused by assuming that the normal incidence responsivity is valid for all directions when measuring from any direction, a beam radiation whose normal incidence irradiance is 1000 W/m² ± 10 Wm 2 ± 20 Wm 2 ± 20 Wm 2 Spectral selectivity: % deviation of the product of spectral absorbance and transmittance from the corresponding mean, from μm ± 3% ± 5% ± 10% Temperature response: % deviation due to change in ambient temperature within an interval of 50K, (e.g C typical) 2 % 4 % 8 % from http//:hukseflux.com/product group/pyranometer Tilt response: % deviation in responsivity relative to tilt at 1000 Wm 2 beam irradiance ± 0.5% ± 2% ± 5%

18 Database Uncertainties inter- annual variability; site setup and sensor installation; maintenance and operation; environmental conditions (like lightning, birds and other small animals); data qualification /08/15 Problemática a questão da energia e os recursos renováveis

19 SONDA network Data acquisition sites managed by LABREN Estação Tipo UF Altitude (m) Belo Jardim A PE 718 Brasília SA DF 1023 Cachoeira Paulista S SP 574 Caicó S RN 176 Campo Grande S MS 677 Cuiabá S MT 185 Ourinhos SA SP 446 Palmas S TO 216 Petrolina SA PE 387 Rolim de Moura S RO 252 São Luiz S MA 40 São João do Cariri A PB 486 São Martinho da Serra SA RS 489 Triunfo A PE 1123 Data acquisition sites managed by partners and collaborators Estação Tipo UF Altitude (m) Chapecó S SC 700 Curitiba S PR 891 Florianópolis S SC 31 Joinville S SC 48 Natal S RN 58 Sombrio S SC /08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

20 Reliable solar energy resource assessment Sources of solar data information other than ground data: satellite data; radiative transfer models to simulate physical processes; statistical models based on ground data and/or satellite data using interpolations or artificial intelligence methods /08/15 Problemática a questão da energia e os recursos renováveis

21 Ground data X Modelling outputs 21 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

22 Available information Most of the available information sources for Brazilian territory are regional government initiatives providing regional coverage and poor time resolution All of them are based on statistical interpolation of ground observations The Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy published in 2006 is the only one prepared using radiative transfer model 22 29/08/15 Revisão: iniciativas anteriores

23 First Atlas for solar data Tiba et al., 2000; based on Krigging interpolation of several site- specific measurements acquired at meteorological stations low resolution in space and time old data presenting large acquisition errors due to technological issues high uncertainties due to poor quality operation and maintenance of measurement sites 23 29/08/15 Revisão: iniciativas anteriores

24 Interpolation from unevenly spaced stations km /08/15 Problemática - a questão da energia

25 Relative differences between interpolation and model-derived information 25 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

26 Large differences in solar energy potentials 5,9 kwh/m² 5,00 kwh/m² 26 29/08/15 Revisão: iniciativas anteriores

27 Satellite models Radiative transfer models need for validation 27 29/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

28 Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy First edition Key features: based on 10 years of satellite images (GOES) from 1995 till 2005 and climatological data provided by statistical analysis of meteorological data acquired throughout Brazilian territory; radiative transfer model BRASIL- SR adapted for Brazilian conditions; poor representation of aerosols contribution to the radiative transmittance; difficulties to get reliable evaluation of cloud cover due to low time resolution of satellite data; similar model performance compared to numerical models used to solar energy assessment around the world like NREL model and Heliosat model INPE UFSC Daily total outputs presenting bias around 6% for GHI and 15% for DNI (but ground data quality was questionable mainly for DNI) 28 29/08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

29 Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy First edition 29 30/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

30 Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy First edition 30 30/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

31 Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy First edition 31 30/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

32 Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy First edition 32 30/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

33 Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy First edition 33 30/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

34 Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy First edition 34 30/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

35 Model Validation Uncertainties Evaluation 19 SONDA network stations delivering measurements of global, direct normal, and diffuse solar radiation for the period 2004 to INMET nationwide meteorological stations with global solar radiation measurements 76meteorological stations from FUNCEME (Northeast region) delivering global solar radiation Various project stations data from LBA in the Amazon region 35 30/08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

36 Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy First edition Scenarios for Solar Energy 36 30/08/15 Texto do rodapé aqui

37 New Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy 2015 Major improvements: Longer time series of satellite images Improved methodology for model assimilation of aerosol optical depth information Longer time series and larger number of ground- based validation data More detailed information on resource variability: decadal, seasonal, and monthly More comprehensive prognostics and what- if scenarios for CSP, CPV, and Solar Cooling INPE UFSC UNIFESP IFSC 37 29/08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

38 Satellite images In the new version of the Atlas the Brazil- SR model uses a series of images of 16 years, 60% longer than in the previous version Digital images form GOES satellites for VIS and IR channels from 1999 to 2014 Combined products from different generations of GOES (GOES 8, GOES, GOES 10 15, etc.) and their respective properties Ground resolution varies but were all reduced to 4km at the equator Time resolution varies as well, from every three hours to every 15 minutes /08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

39 Improved assimilation of aerosol optical depths Horizontal visibility Visibility INMET MACC REANALYSIS ECMWF 39 29/08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

40 Model Validation Uncertainties Evaluation SONDA radiation Network 13 radiation ground data acquisition sites are strategically located in typical climate regions of Brazil. All measurement sites employ secondary standard pyranometers for GHI, DHI coupled with sun- trackers Some sites have DNI data acquired with pyrheliometers Follow BSRN/AeroNet standards 40 29/08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

41 Activities Planning for the 2 nd edition of the Brazilian Atlas of Solar Energy 41 29/08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

42 Timeline 42 29/08/15 Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar Edição 2015

43 /08/15