"Achieving 2 C - Fiction or Reality"

Transcription

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2 A Talk on Leading Perspectives at LEAD Pakistan Office on 4 th January 2018 "Achieving 2 C - Fiction or Reality" Dr. Ghulam Rasul Director General Pakistan Meteorological Department rasul@pmd.gov.pk

3 Presentation Layout Global Warming Trend & Paris Agreement 2015 Success Rate of COPs Process UIB & Water Resources Transboundary Water Issues Future Projections and Implications towards water sharing

4 WMO Statement on Global Climate Warmest Years on Earth 14 out of 15 warmest years occurred in 21 st century 4

5 Global Warming Potential Global warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much a given mass of greenhouse gas contributes to global warming. It is a relative scale which compares that gas to the same mass of carbon dioxide. The GWP depends on the following factors: the absorption of infrared radiation by a given species the spectral location of its absorbing wavelengths the atmospheric lifetime of the species GWP values and lifetimes from 2007 IPCC AR4 Lifetime (years) GWP time horizon 20 years 100 years 500 years Methane Nitrous oxide HFC-23 (hydrofluorocarbon) HFC-134a (hydrofluorocarbon) Sulfur hexafluoride

6 Current CO2 Level January 6, ppm 6

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8 2017 remains on track to be among 3 hottest years on record

9 Arctic saw 2nd warmest year, smallest winter sea ice coverage on record in remains on track to be among 3 hottest years on record

10 Extent of Monsoon Currents Moisture Flux

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12 Snow Maxima is shifting towards February Snow Residency Period is Shrinking Jan Feb

13 Mountains: Frozen Water Reserves Pakistan s rivers are predominantly fed by Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalyan glaciers. These glaciers are receding due to climate change 12 March

14 Pakistan s Cryospheric Assets Number of Glaciers Area of Glaciers (km2) Volume of Ice (km3) Ranges Himalaya Karakoram Hindukush 12 March

15 Number of glaciers in ten River Sub-Basins Sub- Basin Number of Glacier Area (km 2 ) Ice Reserves (km 3 ) Astor Shingo Shyok Shigar Hunza Gilgit Chitral Swat Indus Jhelum March

16 Satellite images show 2.8 Km damage to ice Stream on the Batura glacier in 44 yrs and 700 meters retreat in terminus of the Glacier. LANDSAT LANDSAT March

17 Satellite images shows 670 meters retreat of the Passu Glacier in 44 years LANDSAT LANDSAT March

18 Satellite images show 350 meters advancement in the terminus of the Hisper Glacier The Tributary of the Glacier is also showing advancement LANDSAT LANDSAT March

19 Mass Balance Map Hinarchi Glacier Mass Balance Map Study done during 2008 (Mayer et al, 2010) (19 Stakes) 12 March 2018 Mass Balance Map Study done during 2015 (17 Stakes) PMD Glacier Monitoring Unit 19

20 Ablation Rate (cm per day) Mass Balance at Hinarche Glacier- Comparison Past-Present Debris Thickness (cm) Ablation Stakes Behaviour (Mayer et al, 2010) Ablation Stakes Behaviour (Study done by PMD Glacier Monitoring Unit 2015) 12 March

21 Installation of Glacier Monitoring Stations in Northern Pakistan Bagrot Valley Automatic Raingauge Passu Ghar, Passu Glacier 3200 m a.s.l Bagrot Valley Automatic Wx Station Patundas, Passu Glacier 4500 m a.s.l, 12 March

22 Automatic Weather Stations AWS at Dhamay, Bagrot Valley at 4,000 m.a.s.l. AWS at Hinarche Glacier, Bagrot Valley at 3300 m.a.s.l. 12 March

23 Automatic Rain Gauges Bilchar, Bagrot Valley Burche, Bagrot Valley Records rainfall intensity and total rainfall amount during particular time interval. 12 March

24 Temperature Northern Areas: Annual Mean Temperature ( o C) y = x March Years

25 Precipitation Northern Areas: Annual Mean Precipitation (mm) based on CRU data y = x Years March

26 Pakistan Red Crescent Society 12 March

27 Farm and Non-Farm Damages Flood in ,000 ton reduction in rice production, ,000 tons in sugarcane production ,000 bales of cotton were lost 4. Overall 1,925 small and large ruminants were reported to be lost 12 March

28 Jhelum River Basin Area= km 2 Required rainfall data Kunhar Neelum River Upper Jhelum kupwara wular lake Sopore Bandipura Baramula Gulmerg Srinager Pahalgam poonch Pulwama Qazigund Historical Peak= Cs Kanshi Poonch River Mangla Dam

29 Sutlej River Basin Area = km 2 Historical Peak= G.S Wala Harike Cs Suliman ki hours 175 Pong Dam Cap. 5 MAF kangr a 140 Mandi Hamirpu Pandoh r Dam Bhakhara Dam Cap MAF 57 Rupe r Kulu Distance in KM Islam 194 Punjna d 232

30 Ravi River Basin Area =38519 km 2 Historical Peak= Cs DEG Nallah Samba Basente r Jassa r Kathu a Bei n 82 Chamera Dam 21 chamba Thein 19Dam Mahdhopur 1.9 MAF 105 Shahdr a Balloki Sidhna i

31 Qadirabad Historical Peak= Cs Bhimber Noushera Halsi AIK Khanki Salar Aknoor Doar a Palk u 38 Km 40 Km Jammu Marla Ramban 78 Km Katra Aknoor Chenab River Basin Area =45744 km 2 Baglihar Udampur Kishtawer Dul Hasti Doda 88 Km Baglihar Dam Capacity=0.15 MAF Required rainfall data Trimmu

32 Telemetric Stations PMD Stations

33 Telemetric Stations PMD Stations

34 Assessment of future climatic changes in trans-boundary Kabul River Basin using multi-model ensemble of High-Resolution Statistically Downscaled Data

35 Data Types and Sources GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections) Domain/Resolution Frequency Variables ~25km Daily Precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature No of CMIP5 models Baseline Data Sheffield et al Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset (obs) Historical experiment Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) experiments RCP 4.5 & RCP

36 BCSD Downscaling Method Bias Correction Performed at GCM grid scale (Quantile Mapping with CDF) Aggregate obs fields to lower resolution Spatial Disaggregation Disaggregate to target grid Three-step process 1. Remove low-resolution obs climatology 2. Bilinearly interpolate to target (obs) grid 3. Replace high-resolution obs climatology

37 Results and Discussions Ensembles mean projected changes mean Temperature o C RCP4.5

38 Results and Discussions Ensembles mean projected changes mean Temperature o C RCP8.5

39 Results and Discussions Ensembles mean projected changes Precipitation RCP4.5

40 Results and Discussions Ensembles mean projected changes Precipitation RCP8.5

41 Results and Discussions Ensembles mean projected changes in Frequency Distribution Curve mean Temperature o C RCP8.5

42 Results and Discussions Ensembles mean projected changes in Frequency Distribution Curve mean Temperature o C RCP8.5

43 Results and Discussions Ensembles mean projected changes in Frequency Distribution Curve Precipitation RCP8.5

44 Conclusions Frequency distribution curves of the mean temperature is shifting rightward towards the end of the century indicating a more warmer climate which could result in accelerated snow and glacier melt processes. During mid-century, the mean temperature may rise by 2.8 C in western parts of the domain under RCP4.5 which is further pronounced in the end of the century (up to 3.8 C) on both seasonal and annual basis. By the end of centrury the temperature change lies in the range of 5 C 6.8 C under RCP8.5 under all temporal scales.

45 Projected changes in precipitation vary considerably in terms of both spatial variations and magnitude of change. During summer season most areas show a slight decrease of 0 to -10% while lower reaches of Kabul river show a slight increase (around 20%). Winter precipitation mostly increases in the Northern side while western and southern parts show a slight decline

46 Future Research Recommendations Assessment of Glacier melt and Hydrological regime shift in the light of Climate Change scenarios There is scarcity of hydro meteorological observations in the basin. Therefore, it is proposed to enhance hydro meteorological observational network, particularly in Chitral and Swat tributaries of Kabul River.

47 Projected seasonal shift in precipitation and Temperature over the UIB 12 March

48 Summary Mid-century summer rainfall peaks have been shown to shift towards Aug-Sep while those of winter season have been shown to shift towards Feb-Mar. The mountain regions have warmed considerably over the last century, Temperatures are expected to continue rising Glacier s response revealed a more differentiated pattern, increased exposure to hazards, with extreme events such as GLOFs, avalanches and landslides becoming more common. 12 March

49 Recommendations for Mitigation and Adaptation Real understanding of Cryosphere Dynamics in UIB Sharing experiences Knowing community perspectives and expectations Develop a clear future vision Identify problems & assign role to responsible organizations Develop implementation mechanism Data Sharing

50 THANK YOU