Climate Change The Physical Science Basis. It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation

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1 Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. Extratropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the last half century. The ability of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate extreme events, especially hot and cold spells, has improved. The frequency and amount of precipitation falling in intense events are underestimated. Water vapour feedback is the most important feedback enhancing climate sensitivity (focused only on cloud feedbacks).

2 Climate Change Predictions, including Extreme Hydrometeorological Events: Available evidences from European Research Projects European PHOto Reactor (EUPHORE) Millán M. Millán, Dr.Ing.Ind., Ph.D. Executive Director CEAM (Mediterranean Centre for Environmental Studies) EC/UNISDR Workshop, Brussels, 5-7 July

3 The first experimental data used for this work were obtained during the European Commission Campaigns on Remote Sensing of Air Pollution in: LACQ (France, 1975), TURBIGO (Po Valley, Italy, in 1979) and FOS-BERRE (Marseille, France, 1983). Additional experimental and modeling results come the EC projects: MECAPIP ), RECAPMA ( ), SECAP ( ), T-TRAPEM ( ), MEDCAPHOT-TRACE ( ), BEMA I ( ), BEMA II ( ), VOTALP I ( ), VOTALP II ( ), MEDEFLU ( ), RECAB ( ), ADIOS ( ), CARBOMONT ( ), MICE ( ), FUMAPEX ( ). CIRCE ( ), And other 29 projects from the EC Programmes and Projects on Desertification: MEDALUS I, II, III ( ), and EFEDA I, II, for a total of 48+ EC funded Research Projects

4 Millán et al., Atmos. Environ.,25A, (1991) Millán et al., Atmos. Environ.,30, (1996)

5 Millán et al., J.Appl.Meteoro., 39, (2000)

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7 Millán et al., J. Geophy. Res., 102, 8811 (1997).

8 Millán et al., Environmental Pollution,118, (2002)

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10 K 315 K 312 K Conc. O3 (ppb) Temperature (C).

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12 Millán et al., J.Climate,18(5), , (2005)

13 21g(H 2 O)/kg(air) 2000 m 20g(H 2 O)/kg(air) 2000 m 26º C 14g(H 2 O)/kg(air) km Non precipitated water vapour returns aloft and accumulates over the sea 26º C 14g(H 2 O)/kg(air)

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27 ( Horizontal and Vertical Resolution) Changes around continental margins are very important for regional climate change. ( Soil Moisture Feedbacks in Climate Models) A key role of the land surface is to store soil moisture and control its evaporation. An important process, the soil moisture precipitation feedback, has been explored extensively since the TAR, building on regionally specific studies that demonstrated links between soil moisture and rainfall. ( Water Vapour and Lapse Rate) In the planetary boundary layer.

28 Conc. O3 (ppb) Temperature (C).

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31 Sea Surface Temperature SST (August 2003)

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35 Pastor et al., J. Appl. Meteoro.,40, (2001)

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37 Pastor et al., J. Appl. Meteoro.,40, (2001)

38 Pastor et al., J. Appl. Meteoro.,40, (2001)

39 Millán et al., J.Appl.Meteoro., 39, (2000)

40 9 km 5 km 2 km 1.5 km Salvador et al., J.Appl.Meteoro., 38, (1999)

41 SST and air parcel trajectories related to torrential rains in the WMB Millán et al., Atmospheric Research, 39, 1-16 (1995) A: geostrophic trajectory B: ageostrophic tra jectory Se ptember 86 Pastor et al., J. Appl. Meteoro.,40, (2001) Murcia Palma Ajaccio B A 27th of September of 1986

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43 Back trajectories (type V b ) that fed torrential rains in Germany and the Czech Republic on August 2002, from: Uwe Ulbrich et al. (2003) Weather, 58, , and EC Project MICE (Modelling the Impact of Extreme Events, ). Note that one of the source regions is the Western Mediterranean Basin, and compare with the average water vapour column accumulated during August 2002, shown in the previous figure

44 Nature, vol 437/27, October 2005 Inventing an Icon: Hans Joachim Schellnhuber s map of global tipping points in climate change

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49 British Isles & NW Europe experience floods in summer & dry cold winters LAND-USE & SURFACE CHANGES Alter the MOISTURE, HEAT, & pollutants added to seabreezes Drought & floods increase rapidly over Southwestern Europe Mud floods Augmented soil erosion Loss of summer storms. Drought increases over coastal mountains and other inland areas (+?) Perturbation to the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Torrential rains over areas surrounding the Mediterranean increase in autumnwinter-spring Combined greenhouse heating additionally increases the Sea Surface Temperature by the end of summer Increased salty outflow to Atlantic Changes the evaporation precipitation balance in the western basin. Salinity increases in the Mediterranean Sea Perturbations (?) to extra-tropical depressions & hurricanes, in the Western Atlantic South- Eastern USA Condensation nuclei transported across Atlantic to Caribbean Heterogeneous reactions in shallow clouds: sulphatation and nitrification of Saharan dust African routes: central and/or Southern Atlas (with vertical recirculations) * EVAPORATION FROM SEA + Pollution Effects (e.g., nucleation) Cloud Condensation Level rises above coastal mountains Non-precipitated H 2 O vapour & pollutants (O 3 ) follow the return flows aloft, and pile up in a system of layers, 4.5 to 5.5 km deep, over the sea Aged airmass advected to other regions, in part (daily), or in toto (every 3 to 10 days) European route-v b tracks Summer floods in Central Europe: 1997, 2002, 2005,...

50 It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent. OK, but not as predicted. Changes around continental margins are very important for regional climate change. OK, and probably they are much more important than now realised Extratropical storm tracks are projected to move poleward, with consequent changes in wind, precipitation and temperature patterns, continuing the broad pattern of observed trends over the last half century. OK, but if driven by salinity valves, they may show annual to multi-annual oscillations? The ability of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to simulate extreme events, especially hot and cold spells, has improved (!?). (However) The frequency and amount of precipitation falling in intense events are underestimated. The effects of displacement flows and of moisture recharge over warm water pools are very difficult to simulate Water vapour feedback is the most important feedback enhancing climate sensitivity. OK, but there are more feedback effects than just clouds. For example, the additional greenhouse heating due to accumulation modes over enclosed seas In the planetary boundary layer (?), humidity is controlled by strong coupling with the surface, and a broad scale quasi-unchanged RH response is uncontroversial (!!??). This is not universally true, and it is definitively false over seas surrounded by high terrains in the subtropical latitudes, for example over the Mediterranean including the Black sea, the Sea of Japan, South China Sea?, Gulf of Mexico?.

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52 Figure 10.18, Climate Change 2007, The Physical Science Basis

53 LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THIS IS THE END (But only of this presentation) Many Thanks! for your attention ROUGH GOING AFTER CROSSING A CLIMATICally weathered THRESHOLD