LOG OF FEWS_TAIWAN IN MORAKOT -TOWARD RELIABLE PRIDICTION OF A EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT
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1 LOG OF FEWS_TAIWAN IN MORAKOT -TOWARD RELIABLE PRIDICTION OF A EXTREME RAINFALL EVENT Che-Hao Chang National Taipei University of Technology Department of Civil Engineering Taiwan
2 GEOGRAPHICAL ENVIRONMENT AND WATER RESOURCES IN TAIWAN Area 35,980 km 2 (13,892 sq mi) Highest elevation 3,952 m (12,966 ft) Population 23,046,177 (as of 2009) Density 668 /km 2 (1,730 /sq mi) wiki
3 GEOGRAPHICAL ENVIRONMENT AND WATER RESOURCES IN TAIWAN Average annual rainfall 2489mm 2009 N 2937 M 2156 S 2518 E 2540 Total Rainfall 2502mm(1949~2008) 2489mm(2009)
4 From:
5 Water Resources Agency River water level station Central Weather Bureau Rainfall station Station: 156 Station: 471
6 Radar 10min 1.3 * 1.3km QPE unit : mm/hr 3 hour QPF unit : mm/hr
7 TYPHOON 2005~2010
8 MAJOR TYPHOON 2005~2010 AGRICULTURAL LOSSES 2010 MEGI 2,256, FANAPI 50,119, MORAKOT 388,921, JANGMI 7,529, SINLAKU 20,189, FUNG-WONG 4,182, KALMAEGI 13,728, KROSA 27,573, HAITANG 90,483,803 Order by losses Year Typhoon Billion(EUR) 2009 MORAKOT HAITANG FANAPI HERB KROSA MINDULLE SINLAKU TORAJI BILIS ZEB KALMAEGI NARI XANGSANE 1.127
9 MORAKOT CWB
10
11 RAINFALL STATISTICS Rainfall intensity with respect to durations 24hrs up to 1000mm 31 stations (max:1623.5mm) 48hrs up to 1500mm 23 stations (max:2361mm) 72hrs up to 2000mm 12 stations (max:2748mm)
12 8/5~8/10 Rainfall station Cumulative rainfall (mm) 1 Alishan Fencihu Weiliaoshan Shipanlong Yuyoushan Xinan Nantianchi Laitou Matoushan Shangdewen FROM: WRA
13 Rainfall station Cumulative rainfall (mm) Kaoping basin 1 Alishan Fencihu Weiliaoshan Shipanlong Yuyoushan Xinan Nantianchi Laitou Matoushan Shangdewen
14 TOP 10 STATIONS FOR 24 HOURS Basin Rainfall station Cumulative rainfall (mm) time 1 Choshui Alishan /8 14:00~8/9 14:00 2 Pachang Shipanlong /8 11:00~8/9 11:00 3 Pachang Fencihu /8 12:00~8/9 12:00 4 Kaoping Nantianchi /8 12:00~~8/9 12:00 5 Kaoping Weiliaoshan /7 23:00~8/8 23:00 6 Tsengwen Matoushan /8 07:00~8/9 07:00 7 Kaoping Xinan /8 05:00~8/9 05:00 8 Kaoping Yuyoushan /8 01:00~8/9 01:00 Kaoping basin 9 Kaoping Xiaoguansha /8 06:00~8/9 06:00 10 Kaoping Fuxing /8 12:00~8/9 12:00 31 stations
15 TOP 10 STATIONS FOR 48 HOURS Basin Rainfall station Cumulative rainfall (mm) time 1 Choshui Alishan /7 18:00~8/9 18:00 2 Kaoping Weiliaoshan /7 09:00~8/9 09:00 3 Pachang Fencihu /7 16:00~8/9 16:00 4 Pachang Shipanlong /7 14:00~8/9 14:00 5 Kaoping Nantianchi /8 06:00~8/10 06:00 6 Kaoping Xinan /7 18:00~8/9 18:00 7 Tsengwen Matoushan /7 08:00~8/9 08:00 8 Kaoping Yuyoushan /7 13:00~8/9 13:00 9 Kaoping Shangdewen /6 23:00~8/8 23:00 10 Kaoping Xiaoguansha /7 18:00~8/9 18:00 Kaoping basin 23 stations
16 TOP 10 STATIONS 72 HOURS Basin Rainfall station Cumulative rainfall (mm) time 1 Choshui Alishan /7 00:00~8/10 00:00 2 Pachang Fencihu /6 19:00~8/9 19:00 3 Kaoping Weiliaoshan /6 21:00~8/9 21:00 4 Pachang Shipanlong /6 16:00~8/9 16:00 5 Kaoping Yuyoushan /7 04:00~8/10 04:00 6 Kaoping Xinan /7 03:00~8/10 03:00 7 Kaoping Nantianchi /7 08:00~8/10 08:00 8 Tsengwen Matoushan /6 15:00~8/9 15:00 9 Pachang Dahu /6 19:00~8/9 19:00 Kaoping basin 10 Tsengwen Laitou /6 20:00~8/9 20:00 12 stations
17 TOP 10 CUMULATIVE RAINFALL Basin Rainfall station Cumulative rainfall (mm) Average annual rainfall (mm) % 1 Choshui Alishan Pachang Fencihu Kaoping Weiliaoshan Pachang Shipanlong Kaoping Yuyoushan Kaoping Xinan Kaoping Nantianchi Tsengwen Laitou Tsengwen Matoushan Kaoping Shangdewen Kaoping basin
18 RIVER WATER LEVEL STATIONS Over Warning Level 1 34 Station Over Warning Level 2 48 Station Warning level 1 Warning level 2 Warning level 3
19 DISASTER AND LOSS Flood area :765 KM 2 Bridge: 196 destroyed Kaohsiung 97 bridge were destroyed (49.5%) Dike :31 locations broken
20 DISASTER INFORMATION THROUGH INTERNET
21 Photo From
22 Renwu, Kaohsiung Dashe,Kaohsiung Laiyi, Pingtung Taimali, Taitung Photo From WRA Linbian, Pingtung Linbian, Pingtung
23 DRIFTWOOD Pingtung Port of Taitung
24 XIAOLIN VILLAGE LANDSLIDE (Kaoping Basin)
25 XIAOLIN VILLAGE LANDSLIDE Photo From:
26 Xiaolin village Water level station Kaoping basin Kaoping basin
27 XIAOLIN VILLAGE LANDSLIDE 1730H058 Basin 1730H046 Basin 1730H058 Sudden Jumping of Water Leverl Downstream 1730H046 Lost Signal Upstream
28 XIAOLIN VILLAGE LANDSLIDE 06:09 Landslide Dam 07:00 dam break H m
29 RAINFALL FORECAST IN DIFFERENT TIME Station: 1730H043 SAN-TI-MEN WRF CMT WRF GMT
30 EXTREME RAINFALL IN KAOHSIUNG TYPHOON FANAPI CWB NASA
31 TYPHOON FANAPI 17km Unit :mm/10min
32 EXTREME RAINFALL IN KAOHSIUNG TYPHOON FANAPI C1V410 5 hour : 539mm Max rainfall:124mm/hr C1V430 5 hour : 289.5mm Max rainfall:87mm/hr C1V440 5 hour : 280mm Max rainfall:78mm/hr C1V420 5 hour : 477mm Max rainfall :124.5mm/hr
33 Typhoon FANAPI in Kaohsiung City Photo from :National Airborne Service Corps
34 EXTREME RAINFALL NORTHEAST MONSOON WITH TYPHOON MEGI CWB NASA
35 EXTREME RAINFALL NORTHEAST MONSOON WITH TYPHOON MEGI Unit :mm/10min
36 EXTREME RAINFALL NORTHEAST MONSOON WITH TYPHOON MEGI C0U760 10min max:29mm C0U760 1hour max:121.5mm hour max:181.5mm
37 From wiki Photo from :National Airborne Service Corps 108k
38 Forcating on Extreme Events Chanllege Severe Events Limited Responding Time What we try to do Reliable Forecasting Ensemble Results from several data sources and models Developing forecasting with Probabilities Fair accuracy is good enough Robust in-situ instrument High Spatial and Temporal Resolution Huge Computation
39 FEWS_TAIWAN CWB Station 319 Town Rainfall
40 BASINS with Forecast Main Basin: Forecast Basin River water level station 156 station 127 Forecast Location
41 FEWS_TAIWAN
42 PROGRESS AND RESULTS Based on General Adaptor SOBEK RR-CF 23 basin KW-GIUH RR 1 basin NCHC-Sacramento RR 3 basin NCHC-RTEC (Real Time Error Correction ) 23 basin Shihmen-ANN inflow PMWIN (groundwater) 2 area
43 DIFFERENT CATCHMENTS FOR RAINFALL RUNOFF Main Station Sub basin Thiessen Polygon
44 USE OPENEARTH METHOD DISPLAY QPE DATA
45 3D COUNTRY RAINFALL DATA
46 HYDROLOGICAL MONITORING BOARD A widget-like program to automatically display water level observed and forecasting Water level stations Observed water level Forecasting water level
47 COMPUTING TUNE-UP 23 basins & rivers Forecast hourly Before tune-up : a full run needs 20~30min After tune-up : a full run need 12~15min
48 FLOOD EVEN RECORD WALL Photo From Dr. Ching-Fang, Lee
49 THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
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