Rapid Hazard Assessment of Heavy Rainfall Triggered Landslide Dams A Review

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1 Rapid Hazard Assessment of Heavy Rainfall Triggered Landslide Dams A Review Focus on the developed technologies in Taiwan J. J. Dong Graduate Institute of Applied Geology, National Central University, Taiwan Landslide Dams worldwide phenomena

2 5.5 million people lived in down stream 18 DECEMBER 2009 VOL 326 SCIENCE Lake Sarez, formed a century ago (18 Feb. 1911) by a landslide induced by an earthquake with M=7.6, now holds 17 cubic kilometers of water. Usoi Dam, named after a village buried by the 1911 landslide, nearly three times as tall as the Hoover Dam on the Colorado River. Scientists worry about A landslide dam breaching in China caused >100,000 casualties

3 Landslide dams can be induced by earthquake 1999 Chi-Chi Earthquake Tsaolin Landslide Dam Jiufengershan Landslide Dam Landslide dams can be induced by heavy rainfall 2008 Typhoon Morakot Siaolin Landslide Dam

4 Landquake!! landslide generated seismic waves Broadband Seismic Network Source area Transportation section 2009/08/09 06:16, a sudden loud bang were heard, the nearby Chishanhsi River became completely dry. At that moment, a large landslide occurred. Over one hundred houses were buried and a dam formed. At about 07:00 (~44 min after the dam formed), the dammed lake began overflow, and very soon the dam collapsed. Deposition section

5 Numerical Simulations (Kuo et al., 2011; JGR) Topography before and after the catastrophic landslide event Source area Google earth FORMOSAT 2 satellite images

6 Time is limited for decision making Rapid investigation and hazard evaluation is requested Short Lived Half of the dams failed within one week Peng, M., & Zhang, L. M. (2012). Breaching parameters of landslide dams. Landslides, 9(1), Tangjiashan Landslide Dam Wenchuan Earthquake Down stream flood 1.2 million people could be influenced Tangjiashan Landslide Dam A landslide dam breaching in China caused >100,000 casualties Make decision of hazard mitigation rapidly and appropriately

7 Oliver Korup, Geomorphology 66, Hazards induced by landslide dams 1. On-site hazards; 2. Flooding hazards downstream; 3. Inundation hazards upstream. Xu et al. (2009) Bull Eng Geol Environ 68: Oliver Korup, Geomorphology 66, Hazard mitigation 1. Early identification of dam forming and rapid assess the required parameters; 2. Rapid assess the dam failure probability and flooding hazards downstream; 3. Rapid evaluate the upstream inundation area and water level raising speed. Xu et al. (2009) Bull Eng Geol Environ 68:

8 1. Early identification of dam forming and assess the required information Remote sensing images but failed to identify rainfallinduced landslide dams for clear images are always unavailable at the early stage Chao, W. A. et al. (2016) Seismology-based early identification of damformation landquake events. Scientific Reports, 6: (Nature Group) Rainfall-induced: Location (<5km), Sliding Directions Landslide Volume (Automatically!!)

9 Normal hydrology response Abnormal hydrology response Blockage, Inflow Rate Water Storage Overtopping time Breaching process Check the automatic detection from seismometer using abnormal hydrology observation!! For early identification of heavy rainfall induced landslide dam Landquake event identification, Abnormal hydrology observations, Seeing is believing interpretation of remote sensing images is essential, when the data is available

10 Remote Sensing Images Analysis, Asseement of the critical parameters related to landslide dam related hazards Aerial photograph (Aug. 24, 2009) DTM with 5 m resolution Evaluating the Characteristics of Landslide Dams from satellite images and pre-event DTM The rapidly evaluated dam shape. Brown lines are the contours of the estimated dam crest

11 Elevation (m) Elevation (m) A1 Cross-Section Topography before the forming of the landslide dam Reconstructed dam crest Profile leveling (2009/10/29) Distance (m) 900 A2 Cross-Section Topography before the forming of the landslide dam 850 Reconstructed dam crest A2 Profile leveling (2009/10/29) A1 Profiles: Looking Upstream Elevation (m) A5 A5 Cross-Section Topography before the forming of the landslide dam Reconstructed dam crest NCKU profile leveling (2009/10/29) A3 A4 A6 A1 A2 A5 Elevation (m) Distance (m) A3 Cross-Section Topography before the forming of the landslide dam Reconstructed dam crest Profile leveling (2009/10/29) Elevation (m) Distance (m) Evaluated dam crests (blue lines; image Aug. 24) and leveling results (red lines; Oct. 29) A A6 Cross-Section Topography before the forming of the landslide dam Reconstructed dam crest Profile leveling (2009/10/29) A6 Elevation (m) Distance (m) A4 Cross-Section Topography before the forming of the landslide dam 850 Reconstructed dam crest A4 Profile leveling (2009/10/29) Elevation (m) Distance (m) 900 A7 Cross-Section Topography before the forming of the landslide dam 850 Reconstructed dam crest A7 Profile leveling (2009/10/29) Distance (m) Distance (m) Derived characteristics of landslide dam/lake V d = m 3 L = 180 m H = 60 m W = 2200 m V l = m 3 A = m 2 Location, Dam/Lake Geometry, Inflow Rate, Time to Overtopping, The UAV technology development make it easier to identify required information

12 2. Rapid assess (i) dam failure probability and (ii) flooding hazards Hazard mitigation 1. Early identification of dam forming; 2. Rapid assess the dam failure probability and flooding hazards downstream; 3. Rapid evaluate the upstream inundation area and water level raising speed. Dam failure probability -DBI index (Ermini & Casagli, 2003; ESPL) A H DBI log V -Discriminant Models (Dong et al., 2009; Geomorphology) D s 2.94log( P) 4.58log( H) 4.17log( W ) 2.39log( L) log( A) 4.67log( H) 4.57log( W ) 2.67log( L) D s -Logistic regression models (Dong et al., 2011; ENGEO) L s 2.55log( P) 3.64log( H) 2.99log( W ) 2.73log( L) log( A) 3.76log( H) 3.17log( W ) 2.85log( L) L s P f 1 P s e 1 e L s L s Dam failure probability peak flow (P), dam height (H), width (L), length (W), dam volume catchment area (A) Tabata et al. (2002) reported 79 landslide-dam events occurred in Japan.

13 2. Rapid assess (i) dam failure probability and (ii) flooding hazards Hazard mitigation 1. Early identification of dam forming; 2. Rapid assess the dam failure probability and flooding hazards downstream; 3. Rapid evaluate the upstream inundation area and water level raising speed. Hazard assessment Experience learned after Wenchuan Earthquake

14 Hazard assessment empirical approach New assessment criterion is required!! Hazard Matrix for rapid assessment of a landslide dam-break flood (Yang et al., 2011; Nat. Hazards) Probability of dam break + Impact of flood caused by dam break Impact index of flooding Rapid hazard assessment for landslide-dam breach P f I db Probability of dam break V IV III II I I ed ( Qp,e/Qp, d ) Spatial impact of flood caused by dam break V EH EH H HM M IV EH H HM M ML III H HM M ML L II HM M ML L EL I M ML L EL EL Hazard from a landslide dam-break flood - E: Extremely; H: High; M: Medium; L: Low

15 Dam break probability I db Spatial impact of flood caused by dam break P f Probability of dam break V IV III II I V EH EH H HM M IV EH H HM M ML III H HM M ML L II HM M ML L EL I M ML L EL EL Logistic regression models (Dong et al., 2011; ENGEO) L s 2.22 log( A) 3.76 log( H ) 3.17 log( W ) 2.85 log( L) 5.93 Probability of dam break Category V IV III II I Probability of dam break 80% >60%; 80% P f >40%; 60% 1 P s e 1 e L >20%; 40% <20% s L s Impact of flood caused by dam break I db Spatial impact of flood caused by dam break P f Probability of dam break V IV III II I V EH EH H HM M IV EH H HM M ML III H HM M ML L II HM M ML L EL I M ML L EL EL Management plan of rivers Q due to dam breach I ed ( Q p, e/ Qp, d ) designed Q Estimated peak flow of dam breach / Design peak flow down stream Costa (1985) 0.43 Qp, e 181( H Vl ) Category V IV III II I Peak flow influence ratio 90% >60%; 90% Impact of flood caused by dam break >40%; 60% >10%; 40% <10%

16 Occurrence of Dam Breaching (timing and process) 3. Rapid evaluate the upstream inundation area and water level raising speed Hazard mitigation 1. Early identification of dam forming; 2. Rapid assess the dam failure probability and flooding hazards downstream; 3. Rapid evaluate the upstream inundation area and water level raising speed. If the remote sensing images are available

17 Using continue temporal remote sensing images to predict the inundation area and water level raising speed Prediction of inundation area and water level raising speed Temporal Variation of Water Storage Topography Dam height Net inflow rate (to be estimated) inflow-outflow Prediction is possible

18 Calculate the net inflow rate Predict the water level raising To conclude, actions for hazard mitigation of landslide dams can be determined rapidly and appropriately 1. Early identification of dam forming and obtain the hazard-related critical parameter; 2. Rapid assess the dam failure probability and flooding hazards downstream; 3. Rapid evaluate the upstream inundation area and water level raising speed. Multi-disciplinary approach is important!!

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