Good morning. My name is Nickitas Georgas. I am an oceanographer working at Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken. I am here to talk to you
|
|
- Ferdinand Alexander
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Good morning. My name is Nickitas Georgas. I am an oceanographer working at Stevens Institute of Technology in Hoboken. I am here to talk to you about an exciting and significant expansion of our Storm Surge Warning System.
2 Why do we need Storm Surge Warning Systems? Storm surge is the most dangerous and damaging aspect of Tropical and Extratropical coastal storms. A large portion of the eastern seaboard lies only 10 feet above sea level and may flood due to the passage of a Nor-Easter or hurricane. So, accurate knowledge and prediction of water levels are necessary to effectively mitigate potential damage and loss of life. A Warning System for Storm Surge, not unlike the tsunami warning system that has recently been in the news, allows for the appropriate allocation of emergency management resources for pre-storm actions, evacuations, and post-storm response.
3 So, today, I will start with an overview of the original Stevens Storm Surge Warning System, SSWS, established in This system used the latest observations from sensors to extrapolate surge 2 hours out. Then, I will quickly go through a marine awareness system we ve been developing the last 4 years, that includes a 4D forecast model of surge that could be used instead. In the main part of the talk, I will compare data-based vs. model-based methods of predicting surge, and finally describe the new, redesigned, SSWS.
4 So, in , with the proliferation of real-time environmental sensor networks, observations were utilized to augment National Weather Service surge forecast products that were based on SLOSH or Extra-Tropical Storm Surge models.
5 The water level data collected in near-real time from each gage were used to create a water level prediction as follows: Surge here is defined as the departure of the true observed water level minus the astronomical tidal prediction, possibly due to a combination of many factors. The factors we usually care about are cyclones, but other factors are present too. Even errors in the observed record themselves would be a surge under this definition, hence the quotes around true water level. Then, the difference between the current surge and the surge observed at the previous hour is used dto define the rate of change for surge for the past hour, SR.
6 That surge rate from the past hour is then extrapolated out 2 hours and added to the present surge to get an estimate for the surge 2 hours in the future. This surge estimate is added to the predicted astronomical tide to create an estimate for the total water level 2 hours out. The big underlying assumption of this method is that the surge grows or shrinks in the next 2 hours like it did in the past hour. This is not true in the graphical example to the right, where the surge contracted and the extrapolation prediction overestimated that surge. A different prediction could be made that assumes that the surge now is not going to change in the next two hours. This type of prediction is called persistence. The original SSWS used the 2 hour extrapolation method.
7 The way the system works is shown here. As water level data are coming in from the sensors, they pass through automated preliminary QA/QC algorithms used to discard obviously bad measurements. The extrapolation method was then used to make a water level prediction 2 hours out. Observations and predictions were plotted on a web interface and, if a flood level was exceeded by the 2 hour extrapolation, the warning system was activated.
8 If flooding levels are predicted, a database of emergency management personnel is accessed and a tailored text message is transmitted via .
9 The advantages and disadvantages of the original SSWS method are highlighted here. This was an observation based system, based on real data, not forecast model data, and, don t we all know how good there are It had a nice automated alert system, and a web interface for transparency. But the fact that it was an observation based system, regardless of the method chosen for the actual prediction, brings in some major issues. Real real-time data are preliminary because they undergo automated QA/QC, not human control. Real stations may go out of service when one needs them. A real station network is costly and may be limited. And, importantly, real time data are at least 15 minutes old, with big discrepancies among data sources. So, practically, the extrapolation period may be greater than 2 hours, much greater in some cases.
10 This slide was taken from a presentation in Even back then, there was talk about future work of using in SSWS water level forecasts from the model used in the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction System, the system several of you know as NYHOPS. The curvilinear grid of the model in 2005 is shown to the right. The forecast simulations were issues once daily, and included a 24 hour hindcast and a 48 hour forecast of water levels at each of the grid cells.
11 OK. So, let s fast-forward now to the present. With a little help and sustained funding from a lot of friends, the Stevens NYHOPS system has matured considerably, is used daily, and has been successfully used in several emergency responses and investigations in and around NY and NJ. 11
12 The system is a talk in itself, I am only going to go through it very quickly here. For an environmental and situation awareness system of systems such as NYHOPS, one needs to have multiple components that can both observe and forecast the environment, ground-truth observations against forecasts and vice-versa, and a front end, a website, or multiples of, that can serve information to the public 24/7 in multiple formats. And, of course, all these components have to communicate and work automatically. 12
13 The present NYHOPS does not rely into a single source of data. Instead, it benefits greatly by networks owned and operated by partners agencies and institutions. Techniques for retrieving this data include screen-scraping of web sites, text and XML data downloads from HTTP sources, and data file downloads from research partners. 13
14 All NYHOPS-supporting (or NYHOPS-generated data) are stored in the Stevens Oceanographic and Meteorological Data Repository (OMDR), and can be accessed through the NYHOPS website. 14
15 Observing is only one component of the New York Harbor Observing and Prediction system. The second major component for which I am responsible for is Forecasting, and this is accomplished by observation-forced computer forecast models that can faithfully predict the spatial and temporal variability of the environment to explain observed results with ground-truth analysis against observations in near real time. From the old NYHOPS grid, in January 2007 we transitioned to a second higher-resolution version, down to 25 meters in parts of the domain. In June 2009 we transitioned to our present 3 rd version of the forecasting model, with further improvements in physics and predictive skill. The model predicts water level 48 hours our, which is important here, but also 3D water temperature, salinity, currents, and speed of sound, waves, water fluorescence and absorption. 15
16 I have recently completed a 2 year evaluation of NYHOPS in terms of all its prognostic variables. With regard to water level in particular, each successive version of NYHOPS reduced the root-mean-square-error in the prediction bringing us closer to the center of the circle here. Post-processed version 3 water level RMSE is down to 8.3 centimeters for the 15 new SSWS stations I will be discussing next. The 0 to 24 hours forecast is only, on the average, 6% worse than the observationbased hindcast period, while the second-day forecast is 15% worse.
17 So, if we were to use the NYHOPS forecast model to trigger SSWS alerts, we would be using a system that is always available, with redundancy, since 48 hour forecasts are issued daily. The locations for alerts would only be limited by model resolution, and since forecasts do not loose their skill considerably in the first 24 hours at least, we were toying with the idea of providing longer term flood forecasts. But, the use of a computer-model-based method carries some fine print too. Model data have traditionally been considered guidance only, because, occasionally, bad forecasts of the forcing functions (meteorology, hydrology, etc.) compromise water level forecast accuracy.
18 We wanted to answer the following: Can a model such as NYHOPS accurately predict Storm surge events? Is it as accurate as using 2 hour data extrapolation? Can we expand the lead time for alerts to greater than 2 hours? Given the opportunity, we also wanted to: Expand the network of SSWS stations, include flood levels and vertical datums on time series plots, and present an interactive general flood prediction map of the area.
19 We compared water level predictions by the NYHOPS forecast model to the 2 hour extrapolation of the older SSWS, but also to longer term 6 hour and 24 hour extrapolations that could happen if data are not received in time. We also created and included 2 hour persistence-based predictions as well as 6 hour and 24 hour persistence. We did that for 2 years, February 2007 to February Importantly, all station observations were manually QA/QCed before use, so no bad data where extrapolated ltdor persisted, itdand, a 2h hour prediction is also a true 2h hour prediction (the data were there, we did not have to wait for them to enter the system). In the process, tidal datums and constituents were calculated for all stations in the NYHOPS-supporting network.
20 This is the average correlation coefficient squared statistic between the predictions from different methods and observations, averaged over 15 stations. 2 hour persistence explains more of the variance in the overall water levels than other methods, followed closely by the NYHOPS forecast, then the 2 hour extrapolation and the 6 hour persistence. The 6 hour extrapolation is, as expected, a coarser method. The comparison was reflected in the root-mean-square errors, with the 2 hour persistence having 7.3 centimeters average RMSE, 1 centimeter less than NYHOPS, and 3 centimeters less than the 2 hour extrapolation used in the original SSWS.
21 So, on average, 2 hour surge persistence, assuming good data are readily available provides better results than other methods tried, followed by NYHOPS, then 2 hour extrapolation, 6 hour persistence and, the outlier-prone 6 hour extrapolation. But, does this finding hold during flood events, when peak or near peak water levels are reached?
22 To see what happens with alerts, let s first review a contingency table and it s statistics. The table is seen on the top left. The negative sign means levels are below flood level. The positive sign means flooding is occurring and water is over the flood level. When both the observed level and the prediction are over flooding levels, this is called a True Positive or a hit. When an event occurred but was not predicted this is called a false negative or a miss. When an event is predicted but does not occur, we have a false positive or false alarm. A True Negative means correct rejection. In a prediction method, we are trying to maximize hits and minimize misses and false alarms. This can be summarized by two statistics, the true positive rate, which is the percent of true events predicted, and the positive predictive value which is the percent of alerts that are true. Having 100 percent TPR and PPV means that all of the events were predicted and there were no false alerts.
23 Now, let s look at flood events during the 2 year evaluation period. The hidden stations on the right do not have local flood levels officially defined, so forget them for now. For the 15 stations to the left we used official flood levels taken either from the NWS NJ tidal impact tables (shown in the map insert) or the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) website. There is large variability for flooding among stations. From Feb 2007 to 2009, water levels exceeded minor flood levels 48 times at Cape May, NJ, with 2 days going over moderate flood levels. On the other end of the spectrum, up the Hudson River, at Albany, NY, no water level exceeded flood levels there. Sandy Hook experienced flooding 34 days.
24 Now, let s focus on Sandy Hook, NJ, an average station. These here are simulatedvs-observed water level plots for 4 methods: NYHOPS-based, 2 hour persistence, 2 hour extrapolation, and 6 hour persistence. Every point represents the maximum water level, observed and predicted, within a given 6 hour period in the 2 evaluation years. The x axis is observed, the y axis is predicted, and the diagonal would be a perfect model. The doted red lines are the flood levels. Red dots indicate floods, observed or predicted. The right part of each plot indicates observed events; the top indicates alarms that would be sent by each method. If an alarm coincides with an event, it was a true alarm. R-square and Root-mean-square-errors are exactly as mentioned before: 2 hour persistence is a better overall water level predictor than NYHOPS. It is the most tight curve, followed by NYHOPS, then the rest. However, note the shape of the blue curves. All data-based methods (top right, and bottom) are ellipses, with bigger errors for middle water levels than both high waters and low waters. Yet NYHOPS funs out, with significantly higher errors at high waters than at low waters. The reason for this is unclear. My current working hypothesis is that the model may be more fluid in higher waters than for shallower water columns translating to bigger phase errors in high waters. Regardless of the reason, high water predictions are what s important for flooding events! In fact, all data-based methods shown,,predicted more true 6 hourly exceedances than NYHOPS at Sandy Hook: 31 out of 42 for the 2 hour persistence, 29 for the 2 hour extrapolation and even the 6 hour persistence, compared to 26 for NYHOPS. In terms of false alerts, NYHOPS and persistence produced about the same number, 11 to 13 false alerts, while extrapolation methods were much more false-alert-prone.
25 This plot summarizes the quality of each method in predicting exceedances. On the X-axis is the percent of true exceedances that were predicted, and on the Y-axis is the percent of alerts that were true. The closer a method is to the top right corner, the better it is. Although there is great variability among different stations, on the average 2 hour persistence is the best, while NYHOPS, 2 hour extrapolation, and even 6 hour persistence are almost equivalent, with NYHOPS just slightly better. But, NYHOPS sends fewer false alerts, at the expense of events predicted! So, choose your poison Ensemble predictions might be helpful l if you want the poison to choose you instead, but this is to be determined.
26 This is the same plot as before, but shows averages only, and includes 24 hour NYHOPS, 24 hour persistence, and 24 hour extrapolation methods to see which one is better in longer-term predictions. Different methods are connected with lines. A 24 hour NYHOPS prediction of 6 hourly exceedances is roughly as good as any individual 6 hourly one. On the other hand, all data-based methods become considerably worse as time from the last valid observation they have used increases. Thus, in the long term advisory mode, NYHOPS wins! One should expect 4 out of 10 missed events, and 3 out of 10 false alarms.
27 So, to summarize, 2 hour surge persistence, assuming good data are readily available, provides better alerts than the other models tried and should be chosen over extrapolation. NYHOPS provides comparable results to 6 hour persistence, and wins for longer-term forecasts. But, in practice, 3 years of experience with the older SSWS have shown that bad preliminary QA/Qced observations increase the amount of false alerts and prediction gaps. The data are also never truly real time, so a 2 hour persistence might be a 2 and a half to 6 or more hours persistence, depending di on the station ti and the sensor network it belongs. So, to increase warning time and preserve accuracy, the NYHOPS model is a good alternative for surge alerts.
28 Based on all this, we redesigned SSWS to more than double the network of stations, present a general Google map of the area with flooding indicators, include flood levels and datums on time series plots, and use the NYHOPS forecasts to trigger alerts. The new system: checks stored NYHOPS water level predictions against flood levels every 6 hours for 8 hours in the future. This reduces the amount of e- mails, still providing for a 2 hour minimum warning time, but increasing the maximum warning time to 8 hours.
29 Here is a view of the new SSWS front page, with its zoomable Google map, its 22 color-coded or blinking when flooding stations, click and choose popups, and a new alert-subscription page for the 15 stations with official flood levels.
30 If you click on a station, you will be able to see the observed and predicted water level time series, with color coded flood levels. From the toolbox to the left you can change stations or select earlier times, change vertical datums from a selection of tidal and geodetic datums, change units, and even download water level observations. You can also see a time series of both the actual surge, as well as the error in the prediction to help you understand whether an event is occurring and whether NYHOPS has forecasted that event well.
31 New automated s have been designed for the subscriber in case of a flood level exceedance. They tell you the time period the alert is applicable, for which station, when the first exceedance will be per station, and provide links to each flooding station s time series page.
32 In the future, the history of NYHOPS shows that the error will decrease with better model resolution, more frequent forecast cycles, improvements in physics, better forcing forecasts from better meteorological and hydrologic models, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasts. Definition of local flood levels for all stations is something we would like, and that can perhaps be done by linking SSWS to raster topographic data for GIS flooding. In the future we also would like to combine NYHOPS surge levels to inland flood models such as this picture for a pilot Sea Grant project that Stevens and partners have proposed.
33 This is the final slide, with only some of the NYHOPS resources available to anyone with internet access. Please drop me a business card if you want us to include you in the alerting system and do not want to go to the website. I will be happy to answer any questions you may have. 33
NOAA Inundation Dashboard
NOAA Inundation Dashboard Audra Luscher & Paul Fanelli NOS Center for Operational Oceanographic Products & Services (CO-OPS) Hampton Roads Sea Level Rise/Flooding Adaptation Forum July 29, 2016 http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/newyork.html
More informationJohn Callahan (Delaware Geological Survey) Kevin Brinson, Daniel Leathers, Linden Wolf (Delaware Environmental Observing System)
John Callahan (Delaware Geological Survey) Kevin Brinson, Daniel Leathers, Linden Wolf (Delaware Environmental Observing System) Delaware is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of coastal flooding Tropical
More informationActive Weather Threat Halloween Week Nor easter October 28 th 31 st 2012
Active Weather Threat Halloween Week Nor easter October 28 th 31 st 2012 Prepared 1130 AM EDT Wednesday, October 24, 2012 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast Office Weather.gov/phi Purpose of Briefing Briefing
More informationNOAA s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ
Early Week Coastal Flooding and snow Hazards and Impacts: Coastal Flooding: With the persistent onshore flow, and a new moon today, coastal flooding is expected at high tide through Tuesday morning. Moderate
More informationVery Dangerous Coastal Storm Sandy October 28 th 31 st 2012
Very Dangerous Coastal Storm Sandy October 28 th 31 st 2012 Prepared 600 PM EDT Monday October 29, 2012 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast Office Weather.gov/phi Purpose of Briefing Briefing #11 for event
More informationHurricane Sandy October 28 th 31 st 2012
Hurricane Sandy October 28 th 31 st 2012 Prepared 530 PM EDT Saturday October 27, 2012 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast Office Weather.gov/phi Purpose of Briefing Briefing #7 for event Promote situational
More informationDevelopment of Operational Storm Surge Guidance to Support Total Water Predictions
Development of Operational Storm Surge Guidance to Support Total Water Predictions J. Feyen 1, S. Vinogradov 1,2, T. Asher 3, J. Halgren 4, Y. Funakoshi 1,5 1. NOAA/NOS//Development Laboratory 2. ERT,
More informationNOAA s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ
Snow and Coastal Flooding through this evening Hazards and Impacts: Coastal Flooding: With the persistent onshore flow, and a new moon yesterday, coastal flooding is expected at high tide today. Moderate
More information1.2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE NWS PROBABILISTIC EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL AND POST PROCESSING METHODOLOGY
1.2 DEVELOPMENT OF THE NWS PROBABILISTIC EXTRA-TROPICAL STORM SURGE MODEL AND POST PROCESSING METHODOLOGY Huiqing Liu 1 and Arthur Taylor 2* 1. Ace Info Solutions, Reston, VA 2. NOAA / NWS / Science and
More informationCLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION BY MEANS OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TO ESTABLISH EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION BY MEANS OF PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP TO ESTABLISH EARLY WARNING SYSTEM By: Dr Mamadou Lamine BAH, National Director Direction Nationale de la Meteorologie (DNM), Guinea President,
More informationMajor Hurricane Matthew Briefing Situation Overview
Major Hurricane Matthew Briefing Situation Overview At 5 p.m. Tuesday, Category 4 Hurricane Matthew was about 860 miles South-Southeast of Mayport, Florida, moving north around 10 mph. Maximum sustained
More informationExperimental Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Guidance
Experimental Probabilistic Hurricane Inundation Surge Height (PHISH) Guidance DRBC Flood Advisory Committee John Kuhn - NWS/OCWWS Anne Myckow (NWS/MDL), Arthur Taylor (NWS/MDL) SLOSH Sea, Lake and Overland
More informationPROJECT DESCRIPTION. 1. Introduction Problem Statement
Salmun, H: A proposal submitted to PSC-CUNY program on October 15, 2009. Statistical prediction of storm surge associated with East Coast Cool-weather Storms at The Battery, New York. Principal Investigator:
More informationMaritime Weather Information: Automatic Reporting, A New Paradigm
Maritime Weather Information: Automatic Reporting, A New Paradigm Joe Sienkiewicz, NOAA/NWS Ocean Prediction Center Responsibilities under SOLAS Met Services Contracting governments Observations Limited
More informationComplete Weather Intelligence for Public Safety from DTN
Complete Weather Intelligence for Public Safety from DTN September 2017 White Paper www.dtn.com / 1.800.610.0777 From flooding to tornados to severe winter storms, the threats to public safety from weather-related
More informationHURREVAC REFERENCE IMPORTANT INFORMATION TO KNOW WHEN A STORM IS APPROACHING
HURREVAC REFERENCE IMPORTANT INFORMATION TO KNOW WHEN A STORM IS APPROACHING PART 1: Workspace Layout Program Header (1 Red) Includes tools that allow the user to manage program setup, update forecast
More informationNOAA s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ. Summary. Changes
Summary A crippling and potentially historic east coast snow storm will lead to blizzard conditions and major coastal flooding for portions of the area this weekend. Changes Blizzard Warning has been expanded
More informationGeneral background on storm surge. Pat Fitzpatrick and Yee Lau Mississippi State University
General background on storm surge Pat Fitzpatrick and Yee Lau Mississippi State University Storm surge is an abnormal rise of water associated with a cyclone, not including tidal influences Low pressure
More informationHFIP- Supported Improvements to Storm Surge Forecas6ng in 2012
HFIP- Supported Improvements to Storm Surge Forecas6ng in 2012 Jesse C. Feyen (NOS/OCS), Jamie Rhome (NWS/NHC), Rick LueJch (UNC- CH), Jason Fleming (Seahorse Consul6ng), Brian Blanton (RENCI), Yuji Funakoshi
More informationDonna J. Kain, PhD and Catherine F. Smith, PhD East Carolina University
Risk Perceptions and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones Preliminary Findings on Interpretations of Weather Related Messages and Maps Donna J. Kain, PhD (kaind@ecu.edu), and Catherine
More informationWeather Briefing Mixed Winter Storm Event February 26-27, 2013
Weather Briefing Mixed Winter Storm Event February 26-27, 2013 Prepared 1200 PM EST Tuesday, February 26th, 2013 Joe Miketta NOAA s NJ Forecast Office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Purpose of Briefing Briefing
More informationTropical Storm Ana. Created 6:00 AM Sun May 10, 2015 John Cole Warning Coordination Meteorologist
Tropical Storm Ana Threat Assessment for Eastern North Carolina Created 6:00 AM Sun May 10, 2015 John Cole Warning Coordination Meteorologist John.cole@noaa.gov National Weather Service Newport/Morehead
More informationTECDIS and TELchart ECS Weather Overlay Guide
1 of 24 TECDIS and TELchart ECS provides a very advanced weather overlay feature, using top quality commercial maritime weather forecast data available as a subscription service from Jeppesen Marine. The
More informationHURREVAC The software Tool used by emergency officials for hurricane evacuation assistance
HURREVAC 2010 A Quick Reference enc e Guide The software Tool used by emergency officials for hurricane evacuation assistance www.hurrevac.com FinalHURREVAC2010Guide.indd 1 About HURREVAC HURREVAC is a
More informationBoston Coastal Flooding Analysis and Mapping
Boston Coastal Flooding Analysis and Mapping Philip Orton, Dara Mendeloff, Jane Mills, Malgosia Madajewicz Funding This research was funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
More informationWeather briefing Strong Coastal Nor easter November 7 th -8 th, 2012
Weather briefing Strong Coastal Nor easter November 7 th -8 th, 2012 Prepared 1245 PM EDT Tuesday November 6, 2012 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast Office Weather.gov/phi Purpose of Briefing Briefing
More informationGEOL 308 Natural Hazards Activity 2: Weather and Flooding
DUE Tuesday February 7 Note: You will need to complete Part I by February 3! Part I: Weather Visit http://www.weather.gov This is the National Weather Service site. It includes a quick overview of national
More informationW. Douglas Wewer 1,2 *, Michael J. Jenkins 1
A PRACTITIONER S PERSPECTIVE: PROVIDING TIMELY AND RELEVANT MOUNTAIN WEATHER INFORMATION TO AVALANCHE WORKERS AT SNOWBASIN, A SUN VALLEY RESORT AND THE FOREST SERVICE UTAH AVALANCHE CENTER W. Douglas Wewer
More informationArkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Operations. RRVA Conference Durant, OK 8/22/2013 Jeff McMurphy Sr. Hydrologist - ABRFC
Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center Operations RRVA Conference Durant, OK 8/22/2013 Jeff McMurphy Sr. Hydrologist - ABRFC NWS River Forecast Centers NWS Weather Forecast Offices Operations Staffing
More informationC o p e r n i c u s E m e r g e n c y M a n a g e m e n t S e r v i c e f o r e c a s t i n g f l o o d s
C o p e r n i c u s E m e r g e n c y M a n a g e m e n t S e r v i c e f o r e c a s t i n g f l o o d s Copernicus & Copernicus Services Copernicus EU Copernicus EU Copernicus EU www.copernicus.eu W
More informationNor easter Monday Night Wednesday December 8 10, 2014
Nor easter Monday Night Wednesday December 8 10, 2014 Prepared 400 PM EST Monday, December 8, 2014 Mitchell Gaines NOAA s Philadelphia/Mount Holly NJ Forecast Office www.weather.gov/phi/ Purpose of Briefing
More informationCLIMATE READY BOSTON. Climate Projections Consensus ADAPTED FROM THE BOSTON RESEARCH ADVISORY GROUP REPORT MAY 2016
CLIMATE READY BOSTON Sasaki Steering Committee Meeting, March 28 nd, 2016 Climate Projections Consensus ADAPTED FROM THE BOSTON RESEARCH ADVISORY GROUP REPORT MAY 2016 WHAT S IN STORE FOR BOSTON S CLIMATE?
More informationA Cloud-Based Flood Warning System For Forecasting Impacts to Transportation Infrastructure Systems
A Cloud-Based Flood Warning System For Forecasting Impacts to Transportation Infrastructure Systems Jon Goodall Associate Professor, Civil and Environmental Engineering Associate Director, Link Lab April
More informationGuide to Hydrologic Information on the Web
NOAA s National Weather Service Guide to Hydrologic Information on the Web Colorado River at Lees Ferry Photo: courtesy Tim Helble Your gateway to web resources provided through NOAA s Advanced Hydrologic
More informationMonitoring Extreme Weather Events. February 8, 2010
Monitoring Extreme Weather Events February 8, 2010 Extensive network of over 800 stations across the Prairies Good coverage across entire agriculture production region Network of networks strategy includes
More informationWhat is CERA? Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment
What is CERA? Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment Visualization tool using OGC standards Displays the outputs from the ADCIRC storm surge model or other coastal models Represents the maps on interactive
More informationCareful, Cyclones Can Blow You Away!
Title: Careful, Cyclones Can Blow You Away! (Meteorology) Grade(s): 6-8 Introduction: Most people associate twisters with tornadoes, but in fact tropical twisters come from hurricanes. Hurricanes are what
More informationAdd NOAA nowcoast Layers to Maps
WebEOC Maps Add-on Quick Reference Guide Add NOAA nowcoast Layers to Maps Overview With Maps Add-on, you can configure an unlimited number of map layers. These layers allow you to control the data you
More informationVillage Weather, Snow, Ice, Breakup, Flooding, Fire sites
Village Weather, Snow, Ice, Breakup, Flooding, Fire sites What is the weather like now in Villages?... 1 BREAKUP:... 2 Flooding... 3 Fires... 5 Weather Predictability, Weather and Ice Advisories and How
More informationNWS SERFC Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment. Monday, March 9 th, 2015 NOAA, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center
NWS SERFC Hydrologic Vulnerability Assessment Monday, March 9 th, 2015 NOAA, National Weather Service Southeast River Forecast Center Current Weather Map Today s weather map shows a blossoming system in
More informationHVX-HURREVAC (Beta) Webinar Series
HVX-HURREVAC (Beta) Webinar Series Day 1 - An introduction to HURREVAC and the new web-based HVX platform 2018 HVX-HURREVAC Webinar Series 1. Intro to HURREVAC and General Overview of the Program (August
More informationComparative Analysis of Hurricane Vulnerability in New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Dr. Marc Levitan LSU Hurricane Center. April 2003
Comparative Analysis of Hurricane Vulnerability in New Orleans and Baton Rouge Dr. Marc Levitan LSU Hurricane Center April 2003 In order to compare hurricane vulnerability of facilities located in different
More informationSLOSH New Orleans Basin 2012 Update
SLOSH New Orleans Basin 2012 Update Michael Koziara Science and Operations Officer National Weather Service Slidell, LA The Basics What is storm surge? What is SLOSH? Details Assumptions Inundation = Storm
More informationCoastal Emergency Risks Assessment - CERA Real-Time Storm Surge and Wave Visualization Tool
Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment - CERA Real-Time Storm Surge and Wave Visualization Tool Introduction This document provides guidance for using the Coastal Emergency Risks Assessment (CERA) visualization
More information2015 Plymouth Rock Assurance New Jersey Hurricane Preparedness Study
2015 Plymouth Rock Assurance New Jersey Hurricane Preparedness Study About This Study Tropical storms and hurricanes directly and indirectly impact New Jersey and its 130 miles of Atlantic coastline. Although
More informationTropical Update. 5 AM EDT Tuesday, September 12, 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Irma, Hurricane Jose, & Tropical Wave (10%)
Tropical Update 5 AM EDT Tuesday, September 12, 2017 Post-Tropical Cyclone Irma, Hurricane Jose, & Tropical Wave (10%) This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided
More informationWhat Are Disasters? The Rescue Kids Trio!
The Rescue Kids Trio! What Are Disasters? This manual was made possible through funding by the Council of Local Authorities for International Relations. Disasters and emergency preparedness Emergency preparedness
More informationMajor Hurricane Earl
Major Hurricane Earl Advisory 32 North Carolina Threat Assessment Prepared at: 8 AM Thursday September 2, 2010 Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings in effect for the North Carolina Coast and Sounds. NWS
More informationRSMC-Miami Update Daniel Brown Warning Coordination Meteorologist
RSMC-Miami Update 2016 Daniel Brown Warning Coordination Meteorologist L-0324 Emergency Management Hurricane Preparedness Training Course Funding provided by FEMA s National Hurricane Program - partnership
More informationHurricane Matthew Threats and Impacts Briefing for Eastern NC
Hurricane Matthew Threats and Impacts Briefing for Eastern NC October 6 th, 2016 Date/Time Created: 10/6/2016, Noon EDT National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City, NC Hurricane Matthew Key Points Changes
More informationActive Winter Weather Pattern February 4th-9th
Active Winter Weather Pattern February 4th-9th Prepared 1230 PM EST Tuesday, February 4, 2014 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Purpose of Briefing Briefing #6 Promote
More informationNWS HURRICANES June 3, 2015
NWS HURRICANES June 3, 2015 Hurricane Season June 1 November 30 2 What s the concern? All tropical systems passing within 125nm of central Maryland since 1950 Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes Greatest Risk: August
More informationWeather briefing Strong Coastal Nor easter November 7 th -8 th, 2012
Weather briefing Strong Coastal Nor easter November 7 th -8 th, 2012 Prepared 1215 PM EDT Wednesday November 7, 2012 Gary Szatkowski NOAA s NJ Forecast Office http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Purpose of Briefing
More informationGC Briefing. Weather Sentinel Hurricane Florence. Status at 5 PM EDT (21 UTC) Today (NHC) Discussion. September 13, 2018
GC Briefing September 13, 2018 Weather Sentinel Hurricane Florence Tropical storm conditions have been reported for areas of North Carolina and will continue to spread inland to the west and south. Hurricane
More information2017 Hurricane Season and Beyond
2017 Hurricane Season and Beyond Ken Graham National Hurricane Center Building a Weather-Ready Nation Much of U.S. Coast Saw Tropical Wind Watches or Warnings 2017 Hurricane Season Facts and Figures 7th
More informationHurricane Irma Page 1 HURRTRAK RM/Pro 2017 Summary Report for Tampa, FL 09/10/ EDT, Adv. # 46
Hurricane Irma Page 1 Description of impact to Tampa, FL, Tampa, FL, is expected to receive a major impact from Hurricane Irma. The forecast maximum wind for this location has increased since the last
More informationOrange Visualization Tool (OVT) Manual
Orange Visualization Tool (OVT) Manual This manual describes the features of the tool and how to use it. 1. Contents of the OVT Once the OVT is open (the first time it may take some seconds), it should
More informationHydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia
Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia Justin Robinson, Jeff Perkins and Bruce Quig Bureau of Meteorology, Australia The Bureau's Hydrological Forecasting Services Seasonal Forecasts
More informationTROPICAL STORM NATE BRIEFING
TROPICAL STORM NATE BRIEFING 5:00 AM CDT Friday, October 6, 2017 Prepared by: NWS NWSNewOrleans www.weather.gov/neworleans Situation Overview No significant changes to the track forecast this morning.
More informationTROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY BRIEFING 10:00 AM CDT Sunday, August 27, 2017 Prepared by: NWS LIX NWSNewOrleans www.weather.gov/neworleans Situation Overview New Information Tropical Storm Winds 40mph Immediate
More informationStorm Surge Analysis Update Meeting Cross City, Florida June 17, 2014
Big Bend Coastal Storm Surge Study Storm Surge Analysis Update Meeting Cross City, Florida June 17, 2014 Introductions Risk MAP Project Team FEMA Region IV Florida Division of Emergency Management (FDEM)
More informationGeospatial natural disaster management
Geospatial natural disaster management disasters happen. are you ready? Natural disasters can strike almost anywhere at any time, with no regard to a municipality s financial resources. These extraordinarily
More informationSignificant Coastal Storm Today through Thursday, 11/7-8. Weather Briefing
Significant Coastal Storm Today through Thursday, 11/7-8 Weather Briefing Prepared 10:00 am EST Wednesday, November 7, 2012 Presented by Gary Conte, Warning Coordination Meteorologist NOAA s National Weather
More informationNOAA s National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mt. Holly NJ
Next Briefing Package: Friday, October 2, 2015 no later than 300 PM Hazards and Impacts: Overview: A dangerous weather pattern still threatens our region. Threats include very heavy rainfall, inland river
More informationFlood Forecasting Methodology in Alberta
Flood Forecasting Methodology in Alberta Evan Friesenhan, M.Eng., P.Eng Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development February 18, 2014 River Forecast Team Mandate To provide Albertans with
More informationUse of big data, crowdsourcing and GIS in assessment of weather-related impact
Use of big data, crowdsourcing and GIS in assessment of weather-related impact HK (Photo courtesy : GFS) PAN Chi-kin, Hong Kong Observatory (Photo courtesy : Roy Liu/China Daily) November 2017, KMA/WMO
More informationTropical Update. 5 AM EDT Thursday, September 7, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, and Hurricane Katia
Tropical Update 5 AM EDT Thursday, September 7, 2017 Hurricane Irma, Hurricane Jose, and Hurricane Katia This update is intended for government and emergency response officials, and is provided for informational
More informationDRAFT - Tsunami Response Plan Playbook Santa Cruz Harbor Maritime Community
DRAFT - Tsunami Response Plan Playbook Santa Cruz Harbor Maritime Community Page 1 Best to display on 11X17 paper Purpose and Use of this Real-time Tsunami Response Plan Playbook PURPOSE: This product
More informationComparison of NYHOPS hydrodynamic model SST predictions with satellite observations in the Hudson River tidal, estuarine, and coastal plume region
Comparison of NYHOPS hydrodynamic model SST predictions with satellite observations in the Hudson River tidal, estuarine, and coastal plume region Abstract Shashi Bhushan 1, Alan F. Blumberg 2, Nickitas
More informationMajor Hurricane Matthew Briefing Situation Overview
Major Hurricane Matthew Briefing Situation Overview THIS IS NOW A WORST CASE STORM SURGE SCENARIO Catastrophic Damage is Anticipated for Coastal Areas. Major Hurricane Matthew is still expected to move
More informationIntroduction to Weather Analytics & User Guide to ProWxAlerts. August 2017 Prepared for:
Introduction to Weather Analytics & User Guide to ProWxAlerts August 2017 Prepared for: Weather Analytics is a leading data and analytics company based in Washington, DC and Dover, New Hampshire that offers
More informationHurricane Matthew. National Weather Service Wilmington NC. Steven Pfaff, WCM.
Hurricane Matthew Threat Assessment for northeast South Carolina & southeast North Carolina National Weather Service Wilmington NC 730 AM EDT Tuesday October 4, 2016 Steven Pfaff, WCM Steven.Pfaff@noaa.gov
More informationGlobal Flood Awareness System GloFAS
Global Flood Awareness System GloFAS Ervin Zsoter with the help of the whole EFAS/GloFAS team Ervin.Zsoter@ecmwf.int 1 Reading, 8-9 May 2018 What is GloFAS? Global-scale ensemble-based flood forecasting
More informationAn Analysis of Past River Flooding at Select National Weather Service River Forecast Locations in South Carolina
An Analysis of Past River Flooding at Select National Weather Service River Forecast Locations in South Carolina Jeff C. Dobur AUTHOR: Sr. Hydrologist. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2017
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2017 Finnish Meteorological Institute compiled by Weather and Safety Centre with help of several experts 1. Summary of major highlights FMI s forecasts are
More informationWeek 8 Cookbook: Review and Reflection
: Review and Reflection Week 8 Overview 8.1) Review and Reflection 8.2) Making Intelligent Maps: The map sheet as a blank canvas 8.3) Making Intelligent Maps: Base layers and analysis layers 8.4) ArcGIS
More informationHURREVAC Webinar Series Day 1 Intro to HURREVAC and General Overview of the Program. National Hurricane Program Training Course
HURREVAC Webinar Series Day 1 Intro to HURREVAC and General Overview of the Program 2017 HURREVAC Webinar Series 1. Intro to HURREVAC and General Overview of the Program (August 7 th or 14 th ) 2. Evacuation
More informationFAA-NWS Aviation Weather Requirements Working Group (ARWG)
FAA-NWS Aviation Weather Requirements Working Group (ARWG) Friends and Partners in Aviation Weather October 23, 2013 Airplanes have changed. Lockheed Constellation Airbus A380 Aviation weather products
More informationTropical Storm Ana. Created 615 AM Sat May 9, 2015 Reid Hawkins, Science Officer
Tropical Storm Ana Threat Assessment for northeast South Carolina & southeast North Carolina Created 615 AM Sat May 9, 2015 Reid Hawkins, Science Officer National Weather Service Wilmington, NC 1 New Information
More informationNew Jersey Department of Transportation Extreme Weather Asset Management Pilot Study
New Jersey Department of Transportation Extreme Weather Asset Management Pilot Study Overview Prepared for: June 26, 2018 Introduction Overview of Pilot Study New Jersey s Climate New Jersey s Transportation
More informationWinter Weather Preparedness:
Winter Weather Preparedness: Predictions and Best Practices with WDT Jason Lynn SVP of Forecast Services WDT Claudia Dent VP Product Management Everbridge Agenda What s in store for the upcoming winter
More informationTropical Cyclone Oswald Coastal Monitoring
Tropical Cyclone Oswald Coastal Monitoring Kieran Harper and John Maher Coastal Impacts Unit, Queensland Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts (DSITIA). 27 Quinlan St Deagon,
More informationPHY 111L Activity 2 Introduction to Kinematics
PHY 111L Activity 2 Introduction to Kinematics Name: Section: ID #: Date: Lab Partners: TA initials: Objectives 1. Introduce the relationship between position, velocity, and acceleration 2. Investigate
More informationFloodplain Mapping & Flood Warning Applications in North Carolina
Floodplain Mapping & Flood Warning Applications in North Carolina Marc Stanard, IT Project Manager Ken Ashe, Assistant Director David Herlong, Flood Warning Program Manager NC Crime Control & Public Safety
More informationFlood Forecasting Methodology in Alberta
Flood Forecasting Methodology in Alberta Colleen Walford, P.Eng Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development March 24, 2014 River Forecast Team Mandate To provide Albertans with information
More informationUse of Geospatial data for disaster managements
Use of Geospatial data for disaster managements Source: http://alertsystemsgroup.com Instructor : Professor Dr. Yuji Murayama Teaching Assistant : Manjula Ranagalage What is GIS? A powerful set of tools
More informationMaximizing the effectiveness and socio-economic benefits of weather products and services the Hong Kong Experience
Maximizing the effectiveness and socio-economic benefits of weather products and services the Hong Kong Experience Queenie C.C. Lam Scientific Officer Hong Kong Observatory Hong Kong, China Meeting of
More informationWhat We Know about the Climate Change Hurricane Connection Some links are indisputable; others are more subtle, but the science is improving all the
What We Know about the Climate Change Hurricane Connection Some links are indisputable; others are more subtle, but the science is improving all the time By Michael E. Mann, Thomas C. Peterson, Susan Joy
More informationTropical Update. 11 AM EDT Wednesday, October 10, 2018 Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Leslie & Tropical Storm Nadine, Caribbean Low (40%)
Tropical Update 11 AM EDT Wednesday, October 10, 2018 Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Leslie & Tropical Storm Nadine, Caribbean Low (40%) This update is intended for government and emergency response officials,
More informationSIXTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP on TROPICAL CYCLONES. Working Group: Phillipe Caroff, Jeff Callaghan, James Franklin, Mark DeMaria
WMO/CAS/WWW Topic 0.1: Track forecasts SIXTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP on TROPICAL CYCLONES Rapporteur: E-mail: Lixion A. Avila NOAA/National Hurricane Center 11691 SW 17th Street Miami, FL 33165-2149, USA
More informationDEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA. Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae
DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae LOCATION DETAILS AND BOUNDARIES ethekwini Municipal Area = 2297 km 2
More informationApplication and verification of ECMWF products 2016
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2016 Icelandic Meteorological Office (www.vedur.is) Bolli Pálmason and Guðrún Nína Petersen 1. Summary of major highlights Medium range weather forecasts
More informationEastern Shore Weather and Climate. Bill Sammler Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Wakefield, VA
Eastern Shore Weather and Climate Bill Sammler Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Wakefield, VA About The NWS The National Weather Service is: A Federal Government Agency Part
More informationHurricane Readiness for Coastal Communities
Hurricane Readiness for Participant Guide Developed for: Federal Emergency Management Agency Emergency Management Institute 16825 South Seton Avenue Emmitsburg, MD 21727-8998 Developed by: C² Technologies,
More informationExercise Brunswick ALPHA 2018
ALPHA Exercise Brunswick ALPHA 2018 Who we are (our structure) What we do (our forecasts) How you can access the information Tropical cyclone information (basic) Overview of the products used for Exercise
More informationWEDNESDAY 30 TH AUGUST, :57 p.m. Tropical Storm Irma forms in the Atlantic. Don t let your guard down, always #Be Ready.
Chapter 1 - The Set Up In the days leading up to Irma a series of composed and sobering text messages, presented in truncated form below, from Department of Disaster Management warned us of the pending
More informationCHAPTER 13 WEATHER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS
CHAPTER 13 WEATHER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS 1. The atmosphere is a continuous fluid that envelops the globe, so that weather observation, analysis, and forecasting require international
More informationUnit 5: NWS Hazardous Weather Products. Hazardous Weather and Flooding Preparedness
Unit 5: NWS Hazardous Weather Products Objectives Describe the mission of the NWS Describe the basic organizational structure of the NWS Explain the purpose of various NWS products Explain how Probability
More information13.2 USING VIRTUAL GLOBES TO IMPROVE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
13.2 USING VIRTUAL GLOBES TO IMPROVE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Andy Foster* National Weather Service Springfield, Missouri* Keith Stellman National Weather Service Shreveport,
More informationThe Delaware Environmental Observing System
The Delaware Environmental Observing System DECISION SUPPORT FOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SNOWFALL Daniel Leathers, State Climatologist, Professor University of Delaware Tina Callahan, DEMAC, University of
More information