RIVER FLOW MODELLING AND FORECASTING

Transcription

1 RIVER FLOW MODELLING AND FORECASTING Edited by D. A.KRAIJENHOFF Department of Hydraulics and Catchment Hydrology Agricultural University of Wageningen The Netherlands and J. R. MOLL Delft Hydraulics Laboratory Emmeloord The Netherlands UNIVERSITATS8IBLI0THEK HANNOVER TECHNISCHE INFORMATIONSBIBLIOTHEK D. REIDEL PUBLISHING COMPANY A MEMBER OF THE KLUWI.R ACADEMIC PUBLISHERS GROUP DORDRHCHT / BOSTON / LANCASTER / TOKYO

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE ix 1. INTRODUCTION - G.A. Schultz Objectives Objectives of forecasting Criteria for successful forecasts Systems approach Principles and elements of river flow forecasting Concluding remarks 9 Symbols 10 References DETERMINISTIC CATCHMENT MODELLING - T. O'Donnell Introduction Linearity/Non-linearity Analysis/Synthesis Illustrative example Linear treatment of catchment behaviour Non-linear treatment of catchment behaviour 28 Symbols 35 References THEORY OF FLOOD ROUTING - J.C.I. Dooge Continuity equation for unsteady flow Momentum equation for unsteady flow Equations of characteristics for unsteady flow Boundary conditions in flood routing The finite difference approach Characteristic finite difference schemes Explicit finite difference schemes Implicit finite difference schemes Linearisation of the St. Venant equations Simplification of the St. Venant equations Comparison of hydraulic solutions Nature of hydrologic methods Linear conceptual models Comparison of linear hydrologic models Calibration of linear models Non-linear hydrologic models 62 Symbols 63 References 64

3 vi TABLE OF CONTENTS 4. LOW FLOW SUSTAINED BY GROUND WATER - R. Mull Introduction Discussion of rainfall-discharge relations Examples 87 Symbols 96 References FORECASTING MELTWATER FROM SNOW-COVERED AREAS AND FROM GLACIER BASINS - H. Lang Introductory remarks The snow cover and its determination The determination of the meltrates Practical methods to determine the meltrates Operational forecasting equations for glacier basins where past records are available Thermal and capillary retention capacity Long range, seasonal forecasting 121 Symbols 123 References TIME-SERIES METHODS AND RECURSIVE ESTIMATION IN HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS - P.C. Young Introduction The simplest first order, linear hydrological model More complicated linear hydrological models Recursive estimation of a simple time-series model Recursive estimation of general linear time-series models Model structure (order) identification Flow modelling for the river Wyre Time-variable parameter estimation Salinity variations in the Peel Inlet-Harvey Estuary Western Australia Time-series analysis and flow forecasting Flow forecasting and the Kalman Filter The Extended Kalman Filter Conclusions 176 Acknowledgements 177 Symbols 177 Appendix 1. The Microcaptain Computer Program Package 178 References RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THEORY AND PRACTICE OF REAL-TIME RIVER FLOW FORECASTING - G.A. Schultz Link between theoretical chapters and case studies Model input fields Theory versus practice in real-time river flow forecasting 186

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS vii 7.4 Conclusions 191 References CASE STUDIES IN REAL-TIME HYDROLOGICAL FORECASTING FROM THE UK - P.E. O'Connell, G.P. Brunsdon, D.W. Reed, P.G. Whitehead Introduction Real-time flow forecasting system for the river Dee The Haddington flood warning system An on-line monitoring, data management and water quality forecasting system for the Bedford Ouse river basin Discussion 237 Symbols 238 References RIVER FLOW SIMULATION - J.G. Grijsen Introduction Finite difference methods Numerical properties The Delft Hydraulics Laboratory method Practical aspects Case study: Flood control of the rivers Parana and Paraguay Strategy for implementation of forecasting models 269 Symbols 271 References THE FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEM OF 'RIJKSWATERSTAAT' FOR THE RIVER RHINE - J.G. de Ronde Introduction General description of Rijkswaterstaat and its warning services Organization of the riverflood warning system The empirical forecasting model The multiple linear regression model Low flow forecasting 282 References SHORT RANGE FLOOD FORECASTING ON THE RIVER RHINE - J.R. Moll Introduction Flow forecasting A deterministic hydrological model for the river Rhine A stochastic real-time forecasting model Conclusions 295 Symbols 295 References 296

5 viii TABLE OF CONTENTS 12. DESIGN AND OPERATION OF FORECASTING OPERATIONAL REAL-TIME HYDROLOGICAL SYSTEMS (FORTH) - J. Nemec Introduction Components of a FORTH system Selection of forecasting procedures Forecast updating and evaluation (WMO, 1983) Benefit and cost analysis of hydrological forecasts Examples of established FORTH systems 319 Symbols 319 References 319 Annex I 320 Annex II CASE STUDIES ON REAL-TIME RIVER FLOW FORECASTING - G. Fleming Introduction The Santa Ynez River, California, USA Derwent River system, England Orchy River system, Scotland 354 Symbols 365 References 365 INDEX 367