Delft-FEWS User Days 2 nd & 3 rd November 2011

Save this PDF as:
 WORD  PNG  TXT  JPG

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Delft-FEWS User Days 2 nd & 3 rd November 2011"

Transcription

1 Delft-FEWS User Days 2 nd & 3 rd November 2011 Recent developments in EA Midlands Flood Forecasting using FEWS NFFS Ian Clayton Flood Forecasting Technical Specialist Environment Agency Midlands Flood Forecasting Team

2 Agenda Introduction to Midlands Flood Forecasting Developments in EA Midlands 2010/2011 Lower Severn ISIS Mini-Ensemble Modelling MCRM Snowmelt Flood Forecasting Historic Forecast Performance Tool (HFPT) Further developments planned for 2012/2013 Winter/Summer ISIS Mini-Ensemble Modelling on River Soar G2G unmeasured lateral inputs into ISIS models Further developments in HFPT

3 Midlands Flood Forecasting Properties in flood risk areas = 170,000 (approx) Length of main river = 3,873 km Length of defences = 1,460 km Number of structures = 4,500

4 Midlands Flood Forecasting Models Midlands Catchment Runoff Model (MCRM) Conceptual model Uses catchment average rainfall (observed/forecast) Models reservoir storage and spill Models snow pack development and melt 142 Midlands Routing Reach Model (DODO) Uses MCRM as inputs Routes water upstream to downstream Operates on principle of conservation of mass (i.e. volume conservation is expressed as a simple water budget approach, with lag and attenuation) features) Based on Muskingham Storage Function (i.e. channel volume storage relates to the reach inflows and reach outflows to each reach) 119 Hydrodynamic ISIS Models Use MCRM and DODO as upper boundaries 6 operationally (26 forecasting nodes) 6 under development

5 Lower Severn ISIS Mini-Ensemble Modelling Bewdley (fluvial) to Avonmouth (tidal) Large inflows of Stour, Teme and Avon 130km Implemented operationally in 2007 Performed well during high flow events in 2007/ saw a number of bankfull/lower flood warning only events Performed poorly during lower events Why?

6 Lower Severn ISIS Mini-Ensemble Modelling Further investigations: Channel roughness changes over time? Generally smooth silt channel Vegetation (trees/bushes) just out-of-bank increasing roughness Bankfull/just out-of-bank is where operational decisions are needed (i.e. barrier erection) Existing model was not calibrated/verified at these lower levels, only for higher magnitude events

7 Lower Severn ISIS Mini-Ensemble Modelling Existing model above 4.6m

8 Lower Severn ISIS Mini-Ensemble Modelling New in-bank model below 4.6m

9 Lower Severn ISIS Mini-Ensemble Modelling Average absolute errors for both models

10 MCRM Snowmelt Flood Forecasting History MCRM has built-in snow paramaters used successfully in old Midlands FFS Recent winters have been very cold with large accumulations of snow at times Problems arose in MCRM editing snow parameters incorrect snow packs developing forecast temperature fixed value FFC required impact of snow melt as did Area Flood Warner s/operational staff/management Largest flood in Midlands in 1947 caused by snow melt

11 MCRM Snow Accumulation - Theory Precipitation recorded in rain gauge Snow is melted by rain gauge heaters Temperature gauges used to convert back to snow Snow pack accumulates Further snow adds to snow pack Model sets fresh snow density to 10%

12 Snow Pack Ripening - Theory Temperature gauges used to ripen pack Density moves from 10% to 35% Above 35% snow melts WE = density x (snow pack depth) i.e. approx 10cm fresh snow = 0.10 density or 10mm WE approx 10cm ripe snow = 0.35 density or 35mm WE Ripening of pack relies on correct temperatures (observed & forecast) Used in conjunction with forecast rainfall

13 Example Forecast fluvial response (snow + rain) Observed precipitation Observed snow pack Forecast snow pack melt Snow pack builds Observed temperature Is this Correct? Forecast temperature

14 Problems & Solutions How accurate is forecast temperature? Need to assess over winter Snow observation resolution Recruitment drive Use Met Office snow observation network Snow not melted by rain gauge heaters Edit snow packs manually Double counting of snow Decrease edited snow pack by WE observed snow melt Use Flood Forecasting Centre/Met Office products (i.e. G2G) EA climate station network Use Met Office observed temperature network

15 MCRM Snowmelt Flood Forecasting Summary Relatively cheap and semi-automated Takes less than 2 minutes for whole Midlands Only needed for a few months a year Better understanding of site specific flood risk Use in conjunction with: 15 minute MCRM functionality Reservoir MCRM functionality

16 Historic Forecast Performance Tool (HFPT) Used for fluvial flood forecasting Provides estimates of uncertainty of the deterministic forecast time series as a plume Uncertainty estimates derived from past performance (usually offline studies) Accounts for ALL sources of uncertainty, including rainfall forecast if all sources were included in the offline studies Can be applied to updated / error corrected forecasts

17 Generating HFPT Uncertainty Estimates Forecast error conditioned on: Magnitude of forecast Lead time Estimates error quantiles through Quantile Regression (QR) Requires long, homogenous data set of forecast and observed discharge or stage at each location In principle, need to rerun the analysis if any component of the forecasting cascade changes

18 Quantile Regression

19 Case Study: Welshbridge Real event run in hindcast February 2011 Routing reach on River Severn at Shrewsbury in Shropshire (2288km 2 ) Susceptible to heavy prolonged rainfall over high ground in headwaters of Severn/Vyrnwy in Powys 2 day travel time from headwaters to Shrewsbury Temporary/demountable barrier site

20 Lead-time = 29 hours

21 Lead-time = 17 hours

22 Lead-time = 8 hours

23 Case Study Summary The 50%ile and actual forecast gave good advice at over 24 hour lead-time on the first forecast (i.e. both were showing at least 3 phases of deployment needed) Even with the error in 2 nd forecast the barriers would have been on site and the 3 rd forecast with 8 hour lead-time backed up the need for 3 phases New technique. Currently under development: River Severn (whole length) River Dove and Tame (tributaries of River Trent) All 7 Flood Forecasting Teams developing Develop other techniques such as cost/risk ratio matrix

24 Future Development 2012/13 Winter/Summer ISIS Mini-Ensemble Modelling on River Soar Why? Channel/flood plain weed/vegetation growth (May Oct/Nov) Climate change = increase extreme rainfall during summer? Flood risk high Solution? Mini-ensemble using separate ISIS models Winter rating (Oct/Nov Apr) Summer rating (May Oct/Nov) Run at the same time Forecaster decides which one to use

25 Example Direct Flow Verses Rated Flow

26 G2G unmeasured lateral inputs into ISIS models Currently: Use large ( km) unmeasured lateral MCRMs Source of uncertainty in DODO/ISIS forecasts G2G? physical-conceptual distributed, grid-based runoff production and routing model (FFC Quarter One Report February 2011) Can provide a discharge forecast in 1km² grids across UK Use smaller G2G catchments as input into DODO/ISIS on River Soar as a trial More accurate representation???

27 Questions?

Forecasting Flood Risk at the Flood Forecasting Centre, UK. Delft-FEWS User Days David Price

Forecasting Flood Risk at the Flood Forecasting Centre, UK. Delft-FEWS User Days David Price Forecasting Flood Risk at the Flood Forecasting Centre, UK Delft-FEWS User Days 2012 David Price Overview of the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) What is the FFC? Partnership between the Met Office and Environment

More information

Summary of the 2017 Spring Flood

Summary of the 2017 Spring Flood Ottawa River Regulation Planning Board Commission de planification de la régularisation de la rivière des Outaouais The main cause of the exceptional 2017 spring flooding can be described easily in just

More information

EFFICIENCY OF THE INTEGRATED RESERVOIR OPERATION FOR FLOOD CONTROL IN THE UPPER TONE RIVER OF JAPAN CONSIDERING SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL

EFFICIENCY OF THE INTEGRATED RESERVOIR OPERATION FOR FLOOD CONTROL IN THE UPPER TONE RIVER OF JAPAN CONSIDERING SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL EFFICIENCY OF THE INTEGRATED RESERVOIR OPERATION FOR FLOOD CONTROL IN THE UPPER TONE RIVER OF JAPAN CONSIDERING SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL Dawen YANG, Eik Chay LOW and Toshio KOIKE Department of

More information

Hydraulic Modelling for Real Time Flood Forecast Applications

Hydraulic Modelling for Real Time Flood Forecast Applications BHS/CIWEM SW Branch Meeting Hydraulic Modelling for Real Time Flood Forecast Applications Yiping Chen 20 June 2007 Introduction Hydraulic River Modelling: Washland (Floodplain) Modelling Techniques Integrated

More information

Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman. CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan

Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman. CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan Modeling of peak inflow dates for a snowmelt dominated basin Evan Heisman CVEN 6833: Advanced Data Analysis Fall 2012 Prof. Balaji Rajagopalan The Dworshak reservoir, a project operated by the Army Corps

More information

Flood Risk Forecasts for England and Wales: Production and Communication

Flood Risk Forecasts for England and Wales: Production and Communication Staines Surrey Flood Risk Forecasts for England and Wales: Production and Communication Jon Millard UEF 2015 : Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainty FFC What is the FFC? Successful partnership between

More information

Integrating Weather Forecasts into Folsom Reservoir Operations

Integrating Weather Forecasts into Folsom Reservoir Operations Integrating Weather Forecasts into Folsom Reservoir Operations California Extreme Precipitation Symposium September 6, 2016 Brad Moore, PE US Army Corps of Engineers Biography Brad Moore is a Lead Civil

More information

Preliminary Runoff Outlook February 2018

Preliminary Runoff Outlook February 2018 Preliminary Runoff Outlook February 2018 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency General Overview The Water Security Agency (WSA) is preparing for 2018 spring runoff including

More information

Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019

Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019 Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 1, 2019 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Basin Conditions Summer rainfall in 2018 over the Saskatchewan portion

More information

Flash Flood Guidance System On-going Enhancements

Flash Flood Guidance System On-going Enhancements Flash Flood Guidance System On-going Enhancements Hydrologic Research Center, USA Technical Developer SAOFFG Steering Committee Meeting 1 10-12 July 2017 Jakarta, INDONESIA Theresa M. Modrick Hansen, PhD

More information

PRELIMINARY DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES

PRELIMINARY DRAFT FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES Memorandum To: David Thompson From: John Haapala CC: Dan McDonald Bob Montgomery Date: February 24, 2003 File #: 1003551 Re: Lake Wenatchee Historic Water Levels, Operation Model, and Flood Operation This

More information

IMPROVING ACCURACY, LEAD TIME AND CONTINGENCY IN FLUVIAL FLOOD FORECASTS TO ENHANCE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

IMPROVING ACCURACY, LEAD TIME AND CONTINGENCY IN FLUVIAL FLOOD FORECASTS TO ENHANCE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IMPROVING ACCURACY, LEAD TIME AND CONTINGENCY IN FLUVIAL FLOOD FORECASTS TO ENHANCE EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Federico Groppa 1, Jon Wicks 2, Andy Barnes 3 1 Halcrow Group, Brisbane, QLD, groppaf@halcrow.com

More information

Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update

Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Folsom Dam Water Control Manual Update Public Workshop April 3, 2014 Location: Sterling Hotel Ballroom 1300 H Street, Sacramento US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG WELCOME & INTRODUCTIONS 2 BUILDING

More information

Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting. Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center

Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting. Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NWS / California-Nevada River Forecast Center Mission of NWS Hydrologic Services Program Provide river and flood forecasts

More information

Operational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation

Operational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation Operational Perspectives on Hydrologic Model Data Assimilation Rob Hartman Hydrologist in Charge NOAA / National Weather Service California-Nevada River Forecast Center Sacramento, CA USA Outline Operational

More information

Tarbela Dam in Pakistan. Case study of reservoir sedimentation

Tarbela Dam in Pakistan. Case study of reservoir sedimentation Tarbela Dam in Pakistan. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, UK Published in the proceedings of River Flow 2012, 5-7 September 2012 Abstract Reservoir sedimentation is a main concern in the Tarbela reservoir

More information

(Jun09GEOG201) General Certificate of Education Advanced Subsidiary Examination June Geographical Skills PMT TOTAL. Time allowed 1 hour

(Jun09GEOG201) General Certificate of Education Advanced Subsidiary Examination June Geographical Skills PMT TOTAL. Time allowed 1 hour Centre Number Surname Other Names Candidate Signature Candidate Number For Examiner s Use Examiner s Initials General Certificate of Education Advanced Subsidiary Examination June 2009 Question 1 2 Mark

More information

Global Flash Flood Guidance System Status and Outlook

Global Flash Flood Guidance System Status and Outlook Global Flash Flood Guidance System Status and Outlook HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER San Diego, CA 92130 http://www.hrcwater.org Initial Planning Meeting on the WMO HydroSOS, Entebbe, Uganda 26-28 September

More information

Speakers: NWS Buffalo Dan Kelly and Sarah Jamison, NERFC Jeane Wallace. NWS Flood Services for the Black River Basin

Speakers: NWS Buffalo Dan Kelly and Sarah Jamison, NERFC Jeane Wallace. NWS Flood Services for the Black River Basin Speakers: NWS Buffalo Dan Kelly and Sarah Jamison, NERFC Jeane Wallace NWS Flood Services for the Black River Basin National Weather Service Who We Are The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

More information

2017 Fall Conditions Report

2017 Fall Conditions Report 2017 Fall Conditions Report Prepared by: Hydrologic Forecast Centre Date: November 15, 2017 Table of Contents TABLE OF FIGURES... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 BACKGROUND... 4 SUMMER AND FALL PRECIPITATION...

More information

Challenges in providing effective flood forecasts and warnings

Challenges in providing effective flood forecasts and warnings Challenges in providing effective flood forecasts and warnings National Centre for Flood Research Inaugural Symposium Justin Robinson Bureau of Meteorology October 2018 Zero Lives Lost A key responsibility

More information

Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 15, 2018

Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 15, 2018 Souris River Basin Spring Runoff Outlook As of March 15, 2018 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Basin Conditions Summer rainfall in 2017 in the Saskatchewan portion

More information

Flood Forecasting Tools for Ungauged Streams in Alberta: Status and Lessons from the Flood of 2013

Flood Forecasting Tools for Ungauged Streams in Alberta: Status and Lessons from the Flood of 2013 Flood Forecasting Tools for Ungauged Streams in Alberta: Status and Lessons from the Flood of 2013 John Pomeroy, Xing Fang, Kevin Shook, Tom Brown Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon

More information

Integrating Hydrologic and Storm Surge Models for Improved Flood Warning

Integrating Hydrologic and Storm Surge Models for Improved Flood Warning Integ Hydrologic and Storm Surge Models for Improved Flood Warning Leahy, C.P, Entel, M, Sooriyakumaran, S, and Warren, G Flood Warning Program Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Victoria National

More information

Workshop: Build a Basic HEC-HMS Model from Scratch

Workshop: Build a Basic HEC-HMS Model from Scratch Workshop: Build a Basic HEC-HMS Model from Scratch This workshop is designed to help new users of HEC-HMS learn how to apply the software. Not all the capabilities in HEC-HMS are demonstrated in the workshop

More information

Watershed simulation and forecasting system with a GIS-oriented user interface

Watershed simulation and forecasting system with a GIS-oriented user interface HydroGIS 96: Application of Geographic Information Systems in Hydrology and Water Resources Management (Proceedings of the Vienna Conference, April 1996). IAHS Publ. no. 235, 1996. 493 Watershed simulation

More information

Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba. FEBRUARY OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA February 23, 2018

Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba. FEBRUARY OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA February 23, 2018 Page 1 of 17 Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba FEBRUARY OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA February 23, 2018 Overview The February Outlook Report prepared by the Hydrologic

More information

The MRC Mekong Flood Forecasting and MRC Flash Flood Guidance Systems

The MRC Mekong Flood Forecasting and MRC Flash Flood Guidance Systems MEKONG RIVER COMMISSION The MRC Mekong Flood Forecasting and MRC Flash Flood Guidance Systems NGUYEN TIEN KIEN Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre Phnom Penh, Cambodia Outline 1. Operational

More information

Data assimilation in the MIKE 11 Flood Forecasting system using Kalman filtering

Data assimilation in the MIKE 11 Flood Forecasting system using Kalman filtering Water Resources Systems Hydrological Risk, Management and Development (Proceedings of symposium IlS02b held during IUGG2003 al Sapporo. July 2003). IAHS Publ. no. 281. 2003. 75 Data assimilation in the

More information

ESTIMATING SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GANGOTRI GLACIER CATCHMENT INTO THE BHAGIRATHI RIVER, INDIA ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION

ESTIMATING SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GANGOTRI GLACIER CATCHMENT INTO THE BHAGIRATHI RIVER, INDIA ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION ESTIMATING SNOWMELT CONTRIBUTION FROM THE GANGOTRI GLACIER CATCHMENT INTO THE BHAGIRATHI RIVER, INDIA Rodney M. Chai 1, Leigh A. Stearns 2, C. J. van der Veen 1 ABSTRACT The Bhagirathi River emerges from

More information

An Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast Center

An Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast Center National Weather Service West Gulf River Forecast Center An Overview of Operations at the West Gulf River Forecast Center Gregory Waller Service Coordination Hydrologist NWS - West Gulf River Forecast

More information

Flood Risk Mapping and Forecasting in England

Flood Risk Mapping and Forecasting in England Flood Risk Mapping and Forecasting in England Mark Franklin Environment Agency, England NORDESS Workshop on Risk Assessment and Acceptable Risk Outline Flood risk in England Who we are and how we work

More information

Wales real time forecasting for fast responding rivers. Andy Wall Flood Forecasting Team Leader Environment Agency Wales

Wales real time forecasting for fast responding rivers. Andy Wall Flood Forecasting Team Leader Environment Agency Wales Wales real time forecasting for fast responding rivers Andy Wall Flood Forecasting Team Leader Environment Agency Wales Flood risk & forecasting in Wales Fast responding rivers 220,000 properties at

More information

Appendix D. Model Setup, Calibration, and Validation

Appendix D. Model Setup, Calibration, and Validation . Model Setup, Calibration, and Validation Lower Grand River Watershed TMDL January 1 1. Model Selection and Setup The Loading Simulation Program in C++ (LSPC) was selected to address the modeling needs

More information

Sanjeev Kumar Jha Assistant Professor Earth and Environmental Sciences Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal

Sanjeev Kumar Jha Assistant Professor Earth and Environmental Sciences Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal Sanjeev Kumar Jha Assistant Professor Earth and Environmental Sciences Indian Institute of Science Education and Research Bhopal Email: sanjeevj@iiserb.ac.in 1 Outline 1. Motivation FloodNet Project in

More information

Understanding Weather and Climate Risk. Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017

Understanding Weather and Climate Risk. Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017 Understanding Weather and Climate Risk Matthew Perry Sharing an Uncertain World Conference The Geological Society, 13 July 2017 What is risk in a weather and climate context? Hazard: something with the

More information

Operational water balance model for Siilinjärvi mine

Operational water balance model for Siilinjärvi mine Operational water balance model for Siilinjärvi mine Vesa Kolhinen, Tiia Vento, Juho Jakkila, Markus Huttunen, Marie Korppoo, Bertel Vehviläinen Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) Freshwater Centre/Watershed

More information

2015 Fall Conditions Report

2015 Fall Conditions Report 2015 Fall Conditions Report Prepared by: Hydrologic Forecast Centre Date: December 21 st, 2015 Table of Contents Table of Figures... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 BACKGROUND... 2 SUMMER AND FALL PRECIPITATION...

More information

Great Lakes Update. Volume 194: 2015 Annual Summary

Great Lakes Update. Volume 194: 2015 Annual Summary Great Lakes Update Volume 194: 2015 Annual Summary Background The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) tracks and forecasts the water levels of each of the Great Lakes. This report summarizes the hydrologic

More information

Advances in Flood Hazard Forecasting Using the International Community to Accelerate Innovation. Karel Heynert Deltares

Advances in Flood Hazard Forecasting Using the International Community to Accelerate Innovation. Karel Heynert Deltares Advances in Flood Hazard Forecasting Using the International Community to Accelerate Innovation Karel Heynert Deltares May 2008 in Myanmar May 2008 in Myanmar Properties at Risk?!? Response Forecasting,

More information

Haiti and Dominican Republic Flash Flood Initial Planning Meeting

Haiti and Dominican Republic Flash Flood Initial Planning Meeting Dr Rochelle Graham Climate Scientist Haiti and Dominican Republic Flash Flood Initial Planning Meeting September 7 th to 9 th, 2016 Hydrologic Research Center http://www.hrcwater.org Haiti and Dominican

More information

Presented by Larry Rundquist Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center Anchorage, Alaska April 14, 2009

Presented by Larry Rundquist Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center Anchorage, Alaska April 14, 2009 Presented by Larry Rundquist Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center Anchorage, Alaska April 14, 2009 Presentation Outline Who we are Breakup characteristics Climate and weather influences 2009 breakup outlook

More information

Opanuku Stream Benchmark Validation 1. Introduction. 2. The Opanuku Stream Model

Opanuku Stream Benchmark Validation 1. Introduction. 2. The Opanuku Stream Model Opanuku Stream Benchmark Validation 1. Introduction The model accuracy benchmark published by the Flood Risk Management Committee of the IAHR in http://members.iahr.org/imis/communitymanagement/communitylayouts/flood_risk_manageme

More information

Modelling snow accumulation and snow melt in a continuous hydrological model for real-time flood forecasting

Modelling snow accumulation and snow melt in a continuous hydrological model for real-time flood forecasting IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science Modelling snow accumulation and snow melt in a continuous hydrological model for real-time flood forecasting To cite this article: Ph Stanzel et al

More information

Uncertainty propagation in a sequential model for flood forecasting

Uncertainty propagation in a sequential model for flood forecasting Predictions in Ungauged Basins: Promise and Progress (Proceedings of symposium S7 held during the Seventh IAHS Scientific Assembly at Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, April 2005). IAHS Publ. 303, 2006. 177 Uncertainty

More information

Hydrologic Forecast Centre. Manitoba Infrastructure. Winnipeg, Manitoba FEBRUARY FLOOD OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA.

Hydrologic Forecast Centre. Manitoba Infrastructure. Winnipeg, Manitoba FEBRUARY FLOOD OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA. Page 1 of 20 Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure Winnipeg, Manitoba FEBRUARY FLOOD OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA February 28, 2019 Overview The February Outlook Report prepared by the Hydrologic

More information

Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba. MARCH OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA March 23, 2018

Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba. MARCH OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA March 23, 2018 Page 1 of 21 Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure, Winnipeg, Manitoba MARCH OUTLOOK REPORT FOR MANITOBA March 23, 2018 Overview The March Outlook Report prepared by the Hydrologic Forecast

More information

UK Flooding Feb 2003

UK Flooding Feb 2003 UK Flooding 2000 06 Feb 2003 Britain has taken a battering from floods in the last 5 years, with major events in 1998 and 2000, significant floods in 2001 and minor events in each of the other years. So

More information

A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake

A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake A Report on a Statistical Model to Forecast Seasonal Inflows to Cowichan Lake Prepared by: Allan Chapman, MSc, PGeo Hydrologist, Chapman Geoscience Ltd., and Former Head, BC River Forecast Centre Victoria

More information

ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY

ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY ENGINEERING HYDROLOGY Prof. Rajesh Bhagat Asst. Professor Civil Engineering Department Yeshwantrao Chavan College Of Engineering Nagpur B. E. (Civil Engg.) M. Tech. (Enviro. Engg.) GCOE, Amravati VNIT,

More information

Looking for Recent Climatic Trends and Patterns in California s Central Sierra

Looking for Recent Climatic Trends and Patterns in California s Central Sierra Looking for Recent Climatic Trends and Patterns in California s Central Sierra Looking for Recent Climatic Trends and Patterns in California s Central Sierra Gary J. Freeman Introduction Pacific Gas &

More information

3.0 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY

3.0 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY 3.0 TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY 3.1 INTRODUCTION To enable seasonal storage and release of water from Lake Wenatchee, an impoundment structure would need to be constructed on the lake outlet channel. The structure

More information

Advanced /Surface Hydrology Dr. Jagadish Torlapati Fall 2017 MODULE 2 - ROUTING METHODS

Advanced /Surface Hydrology Dr. Jagadish Torlapati Fall 2017 MODULE 2 - ROUTING METHODS Routing MODULE - ROUTING METHODS Routing is the process of find the distribution of flow rate and depth in space and time along a river or storm sewer. Routing is also called Flow routing or flood routing.

More information

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY. Course Instructor : Prof. P. P. MUJUMDAR Department of Civil Engg., IISc.

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY. Course Instructor : Prof. P. P. MUJUMDAR Department of Civil Engg., IISc. INDIAN INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY Course Instructor : Prof. P. P. MUJUMDAR Department of Civil Engg., IISc. Course Contents Introduction to Random Variables (RVs) Probability Distributions

More information

Visualising and communicating probabilistic flow forecasts in The Netherlands

Visualising and communicating probabilistic flow forecasts in The Netherlands Visualising and communicating probabilistic flow forecasts in The Netherlands Eric Sprokkereef Centre for Water Management Division Crisis Management & Information Supply 2-2-2009 Content The basins Forecasting

More information

Flood Risk Assessment

Flood Risk Assessment Flood Risk Assessment February 14, 2008 Larry Schick Army Corps of Engineers Seattle District Meteorologist General Assessment As promised, La Nina caused an active winter with above to much above normal

More information

National Flood Resilience Review (NFRR)

National Flood Resilience Review (NFRR) National Flood Resilience Review (NFRR) Professor Dame Julia Slingo Met Office Chief Scientist Surprised again! Is this climate change? Storm Desmond 5-6 December 2015 Rainfall record for a 24-hour period

More information

EFFECTIVE DAM OPERATION METHOD BASED ON INFLOW FORECASTING FOR SENANAYAKA SAMUDRA RESERVOIR, SRI LANKA

EFFECTIVE DAM OPERATION METHOD BASED ON INFLOW FORECASTING FOR SENANAYAKA SAMUDRA RESERVOIR, SRI LANKA EFFECTIVE DAM OPERATION METHOD BASED ON INFLOW FORECASTING FOR SENANAYAKA SAMUDRA RESERVOIR, SRI LANKA Muthubanda Appuhamige Sanath Susila GUNASENA (MEE13632) Supervisors: Dr. Mamoru Miyamoto, Dr. Duminda

More information

Upper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017

Upper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017 Upper Missouri River Basin December 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast December 5, 2017 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast Explanation and Purpose of Forecast U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Northwestern Division

More information

Flood Forecasting Methodology in Alberta

Flood Forecasting Methodology in Alberta Flood Forecasting Methodology in Alberta Evan Friesenhan, M.Eng., P.Eng Alberta Environment and Sustainable Resource Development March 17, 2014 River Forecast Team Mandate To provide Albertans with information

More information

Water Supply Conditions and Outlook June 4, 2018

Water Supply Conditions and Outlook June 4, 2018 Water Supply Conditions and Outlook June 4, 2018 Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Overview Water supply conditions across Saskatchewan are generally good with most reservoir

More information

Prediction of Snow Water Equivalent in the Snake River Basin

Prediction of Snow Water Equivalent in the Snake River Basin Hobbs et al. Seasonal Forecasting 1 Jon Hobbs Steve Guimond Nate Snook Meteorology 455 Seasonal Forecasting Prediction of Snow Water Equivalent in the Snake River Basin Abstract Mountainous regions of

More information

January 2011 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast

January 2011 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast January 2011 Calendar Year Runoff Forecast 2010 Runoff Year Calendar Year 2010 was the third highest year of runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City with 38.8 MAF, behind 1978 and 1997 which

More information

GEOL 1121 Earth Processes and Environments

GEOL 1121 Earth Processes and Environments GEOL 1121 Earth Processes and Environments Wondwosen Seyoum Department of Geology University of Georgia e-mail: seyoum@uga.edu G/G Bldg., Rm. No. 122 Seyoum, 2015 Chapter 6 Streams and Flooding Seyoum,

More information

Impacts of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse

Impacts of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse Impacts of climate change on flooding in the river Meuse Martijn Booij University of Twente,, The Netherlands m.j.booij booij@utwente.nlnl 2003 in the Meuse basin Model appropriateness Appropriate model

More information

Current Daily Simulated Subsurface Water Storage Conditions

Current Daily Simulated Subsurface Water Storage Conditions *Example month displaying extreme relative dryness These maps are based on Grid-to-Grid (G2G) hydrological model simulated subsurface water storage, expressed as an anomaly from the historical monthly

More information

FORECAST-BASED OPERATIONS AT FOLSOM DAM AND LAKE

FORECAST-BASED OPERATIONS AT FOLSOM DAM AND LAKE FORECAST-BASED OPERATIONS AT FOLSOM DAM AND LAKE 255 237 237 237 217 217 217 200 200 200 0 163 131 Bridging the Gap163Conference 255 0 132 255 0 163 122 The Dana on Mission Bay San Diego, CA January 28,

More information

Oregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017

Oregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017 Oregon Water Conditions Report May 1, 2017 Mountain snowpack in the higher elevations has continued to increase over the last two weeks. Statewide, most low and mid elevation snow has melted so the basin

More information

Real-Time Meteorological Gridded Data: What s New With HEC-RAS

Real-Time Meteorological Gridded Data: What s New With HEC-RAS Real-Time Meteorological Gridded Data: What s New With HEC-RAS Acquisition and Application of Gridded Meteorological Data in Support of the USACE s Real-Time Water Management Mission Fauwaz Hanbali, Tom

More information

Michael Cranston, Claire Harley, Lauren McLean, Amy Tavendale, Darroch Kaye, and Lisa Naysmith (Flood Forecasting and Warning section)

Michael Cranston, Claire Harley, Lauren McLean, Amy Tavendale, Darroch Kaye, and Lisa Naysmith (Flood Forecasting and Warning section) Firths of Forth and Tay Flood Warning System and the Storms of 2012-2014 Keming Hu Acknowledgements Michael Cranston, Claire Harley, Lauren McLean, Amy Tavendale, Darroch Kaye, and Lisa Naysmith (Flood

More information

Comparison of rainfall distribution method

Comparison of rainfall distribution method Team 6 Comparison of rainfall distribution method In this section different methods of rainfall distribution are compared. METEO-France is the French meteorological agency, a public administrative institution

More information

FFGS Concept HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER. 2 May 2017

FFGS Concept HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER. 2 May 2017 FFGS Concept HYDROLOGIC RESEARCH CENTER 2 May 2017 Research and Development History 1970-1988: US NWS Produces FFG statistically for each River Forecast Center. Also, research in adaptive site specific

More information

Flood Inundation Mapping under different climate change scenarios in the upper Indus River Basin, Pakistan

Flood Inundation Mapping under different climate change scenarios in the upper Indus River Basin, Pakistan Flood Inundation Mapping under different climate change scenarios in the upper Indus River Basin, Pakistan Sohaib Baig (doctoral student) 16 November 2017 Disaster Prevention Research Institute 1 Kyoto

More information

Technical Note: Hydrology of the Lukanga Swamp, Zambia

Technical Note: Hydrology of the Lukanga Swamp, Zambia Technical Note: Hydrology of the Lukanga Swamp, Zambia Matthew McCartney July 7 Description The Lukanga swamp is located approximately 5km west of the city of Kabwe, in the Central province of Zambia,

More information

County Clare Flood Forecasting System

County Clare Flood Forecasting System County Clare Flood Forecasting System Paul Moroney BE (Civil), C. Eng. M.I.E.I. M.C.I.Arb. Head of the Environment Section Clare County Council (The views expressed in this paper represent the professional

More information

The UK Flood Forecasting Centre

The UK Flood Forecasting Centre Storm Surge Networking Forum, Venice: Tuesday 19 th November 2013 The UK Flood Forecasting Centre Dave Cox - Senior Hydrometeorologist FFC Exeter, England. In My talk today I will cover: Ü Overview of

More information

Probabilistic forecasting for urban water management: A case study

Probabilistic forecasting for urban water management: A case study 9th International Conference on Urban Drainage Modelling Belgrade 212 Probabilistic forecasting for urban water management: A case study Jeanne-Rose Rene' 1, Henrik Madsen 2, Ole Mark 3 1 DHI, Denmark,

More information

DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA. Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae

DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA. Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae DEVELOPMENT OF A FORECAST EARLY WARNING SYSTEM ethekwini Municipality, Durban, RSA Clint Chrystal, Natasha Ramdass, Mlondi Hlongwae LOCATION DETAILS AND BOUNDARIES ethekwini Municipal Area = 2297 km 2

More information

The use of rainfall radar in flood warning. Holly Denning Flood Incident Management Team - Wessex

The use of rainfall radar in flood warning. Holly Denning Flood Incident Management Team - Wessex The use of rainfall radar in flood warning Holly Denning Flood Incident Management Team - Wessex 1 Agenda h Objectives h Crewkerne and Shepton Mallet, Somerset 29 th May 2008 h Ringwood, Dorset 3 rd June

More information

Complex Cascade Dams Operation The Glommen and Laagen Case

Complex Cascade Dams Operation The Glommen and Laagen Case Complex Cascade Dams Operation The Glommen and Laagen Case Hans-Christian Udnæs Head of Department Hydrology, Eidsiva About GLB Glommens og Laagens Brukseierforening (GLB) is a Water Management Association

More information

Aurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia

Aurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 15B.1 RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND NOWCASTS: THE CHALLENGING ROAD FROM RESEARCH TO WARNINGS Aurora Bell*, Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia 1. Introduction Warnings are

More information

National Weather Service. Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist in Charge

National Weather Service. Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist in Charge National Weather Service Harold H. Opitz Hydrologist in Charge Goals Organization Role of the River Forecast Center Describe Forecast System & Tools Other Details NWS River Forecast Centers Northwest River

More information

Preliminary Viability Assessment (PVA) for Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO)

Preliminary Viability Assessment (PVA) for Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Preliminary Viability Assessment (PVA) for Lake Mendocino Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) Rob Hartman Consultant to SCWA and CW3E May 30, 2017 Why Conduct a PVA? Key Questions for the PVA

More information

Climate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them.

Climate also has a large influence on how local ecosystems have evolved and how we interact with them. The Mississippi River in a Changing Climate By Paul Lehman, P.Eng., General Manager Mississippi Valley Conservation (This article originally appeared in the Mississippi Lakes Association s 212 Mississippi

More information

Water information system advances American River basin. Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS

Water information system advances American River basin. Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS Water information system advances American River basin Roger Bales, Martha Conklin, Steve Glaser, Bob Rice & collaborators UC: SNRI & CITRIS Opportunities Unprecedented level of information from low-cost

More information

The indicator can be used for awareness raising, evaluation of occurred droughts, forecasting future drought risks and management purposes.

The indicator can be used for awareness raising, evaluation of occurred droughts, forecasting future drought risks and management purposes. INDICATOR FACT SHEET SSPI: Standardized SnowPack Index Indicator definition The availability of water in rivers, lakes and ground is mainly related to precipitation. However, in the cold climate when precipitation

More information

Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia

Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia Justin Robinson, Jeff Perkins and Bruce Quig Bureau of Meteorology, Australia The Bureau's Hydrological Forecasting Services Seasonal Forecasts

More information

2017 January Conditions Report Manitoba Hydrologic Forecasting and Coordination Branch Manitoba Infrastructure

2017 January Conditions Report Manitoba Hydrologic Forecasting and Coordination Branch Manitoba Infrastructure 2017 January Conditions Report Manitoba Hydrologic Forecasting and Coordination Branch Manitoba Infrastructure 1/30/2017 Page 1 of 22 Hydrologic Forecast Centre Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation

More information

Missouri River Basin Water Management

Missouri River Basin Water Management Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers Missouri River Navigator s Meeting February 12, 2014 Bill Doan, P.E. Missouri River Basin Water Management US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING

More information

2016 Fall Conditions Report

2016 Fall Conditions Report 2016 Fall Conditions Report Prepared by: Hydrologic Forecast Centre Date: December 13, 2016 Table of Contents TABLE OF FIGURES... ii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 1 BACKGROUND... 5 SUMMER AND FALL PRECIPITATION...

More information

An overview of Hydro Tasmania s dynamic real-time inflow prediction and flood forecasting system

An overview of Hydro Tasmania s dynamic real-time inflow prediction and flood forecasting system 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Gold Coast, Australia, 29 Nov to 4 Dec 2015 www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2015 An overview of Hydro Tasmania s dynamic real-time inflow prediction and

More information

CWMS Modeling for Real-Time Water Management

CWMS Modeling for Real-Time Water Management Hydrologic Engineering Center Training Course on CWMS Modeling for Real-Time Water Management August 2018 Davis, California The Corps Water Management System (CWMS) is a software and hardware system to

More information

Regional Flash Flood Guidance and Early Warning System

Regional Flash Flood Guidance and Early Warning System WMO Training for Trainers Workshop on Integrated approach to flash flood and flood risk management 24-28 October 2010 Kathmandu, Nepal Regional Flash Flood Guidance and Early Warning System Dr. W. E. Grabs

More information

Heihe River Runoff Prediction

Heihe River Runoff Prediction Heihe River Runoff Prediction Principles & Application Dr. Tobias Siegfried, hydrosolutions Ltd., Zurich, Switzerland September 2017 hydrosolutions Overview Background Methods Catchment Characterization

More information

Great Lakes Update. Volume 199: 2017 Annual Summary. Background

Great Lakes Update. Volume 199: 2017 Annual Summary. Background Great Lakes Update Volume 199: 2017 Annual Summary Background The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) tracks and forecasts the water levels of each of the Great Lakes. This report is primarily focused

More information

How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting. Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University

How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting. Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University How advances in atmospheric modelling are used for improved flood forecasting Dr Michaela Bray Cardiff University Overview of current short term rainfall forecasting Advancements and on going research

More information

Water Supply Conditions and Outlook October 1, 2018

Water Supply Conditions and Outlook October 1, 2018 Water Supply Conditions and Outlook October 1, 2018 Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency Overview Water supply conditions across Saskatchewan remain near normal, with most reservoirs

More information

Snow Melt with the Land Climate Boundary Condition

Snow Melt with the Land Climate Boundary Condition Snow Melt with the Land Climate Boundary Condition GEO-SLOPE International Ltd. www.geo-slope.com 1200, 700-6th Ave SW, Calgary, AB, Canada T2P 0T8 Main: +1 403 269 2002 Fax: +1 888 463 2239 Introduction

More information

Seasonal Prediction in France : Application to Hydrology

Seasonal Prediction in France : Application to Hydrology Seasonal Prediction in France : Application to Hydrology CERON J-P, SINGLA S., MARTIN E., ROUSSET-REGIMBEAU F., DEQUE M., HABETS F. and VIDAL J.-P. ECAM 2013 Introduction A first study showed the feasibility

More information