Climate and Regional Sustainability

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1 Climate and Regional Sustainability Anond Snidvongs Southeast Asia START Regional Center Chulalongkorn University Bangkok, Thailand

2 Topics Southeast Asia, a monsoon influenced region Global-regional climate linkages regional scale modeling approach Local climate risk communication as a mechanism to facilitate vision in development process

3 Some Observed Changes in SEA: The Monsoon Stronger SW Monsoon? Weaker or unchanged NE Monsoon?

4 Thailand National Temperature Trends Likely to caused by global warming /50y /50y /50y Limsakul and Goes (2008)

5 Disappearing Frosts Likely to caused by global warming

6 Low Latitude Storms in Southeast Asia between Sep Oct Nov Dec

7 Low Latitude Storms in Southeast Asia between Class Wind Speed Numbers (Knot) Depressions <34 44 Tropical Storms Typhoons >63 13 TOTAL 69 (64 out of 69 were between September-December)

8 years Running Average y Periods Total Storms and Depression Tropical Sotrms and Typhoons Total Depression Tropical Storms Typhoons

9 years Running Mean of Storms ( ) Likely to caused by global warming y Periods Total Storms and Depression Tropical Sotrms and Typhoons Total Typhoons Linear (Total) Linear (Typhoons)

10 Mean Storm Occurrence Day Late Oct. 30y Periods Julian Day Mid Oct

11 Rainfall Variability and Trends Likely caused by ENSO 20.0 Rainfall Anomaly in Thailand from Year

12 Nino 3.4 and Dipole Mode Index Nino 3.4 Dipole Mode Index Hypothesis: Rainfall pattern in the northern region in Thailand influenced by Nino 3.4 SST and DMI

13 Rainfall in Northern Thailand ( ) Likely caused by ENSO and IOD Millimeter per year millimeter per year Nino 3.4 SST anomaly Nino 3.4 SST DMI DMI

14 Calculated and Observed Rain in Northern Thailand years Rain observed Rain calculated from Nino3.4 SST and IOD Mode Index Sangmanee and Snidvon Rainfall (millimeter per season)

15 Coral Bleaching Likely caused by ENSO (and/or IOD?)

16 Mingyong Glacier in upper Mekong

17 Climate Change in Southeast Asia Relative to Other Asian Subregions

30 25 North Asia 2070-99 20 2040-69 30 Annual Precipitation Change (%) 30 25 Central Asia 20 15 10 5 2010-39 0 2040-69 2070-99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7-5 30 25 West Asia 20 15 10 2010-39 5 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7-5

18 30 25 North Asia Annual Precipitation Change (%) Central Asia West Asia Tibet Plateau East Asia South Asia Southeast Asia Average Temperature Change ( o C)

High resolution climate scenario simulation for mainland

10x10km for Mekong River region Condition of climate

360 ppm to 540 ppm and 720 ppm, Simulated daily climate data

20 High resolution climate scenario simulation for mainland Southeast Asia Generation 1: CCAM model Climate scenario at 10x10km for Mekong River region Condition of climate projection: atmospheric CO 2 levels rise from baseline of 360 ppm to 540 ppm and 720 ppm, Simulated daily climate data for 10 years at each condition SEA START RC copyright 2008 CCAM climate model

) Resolution - temporal: daily GCM dataset: ECHAM4 Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology HadAM3P & HadCM3 UK Met Office Hadley

22 Generation 2: Dynamic downscaling of climate simulation using PRECIS regional climate model Resolution - geographic: 0.22 degree (approx. 25x25 km.) Resolution - temporal: daily GCM dataset: ECHAM4 Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology HadAM3P & HadCM3 UK Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change Timeframe Baseline High resolution climate scenario for mainland Southeast Asia Future (ECHAM4 A2 & B2) / (HadAM3P A2 & B2) / (HadCM3 A1B) Coverage Lat. 0-35ºN Lon. 90º-112ºE

23 Examples of Downscaled ECHAM4 Projection of Future Climate in Mainland Southeast Asia under SRES A2 using PRECIS

Slow and fragmented technological changes.

24 The A2 scenario is characterized by: A world of independently operating, self-reliant nations. Continuously increasing population. Regionally/nationally oriented economic development. Slow and fragmented technological changes. Slow and fragmented improvements to per capita income Year A2 CO 2 (ppm)

26 Hot days (>=35 o C) per annum

27 Coolest Temperature ( o C)

28 Cool days (<=15 o C) per annum

29 Annual Rainfall Change from 1980 s (%)

30 What will be our future climate Slightly higher daytime temperature Longer summer periods Warmer nights, especially in the northern mountainous areas Shorter winter periods More rains More frequent storms Longer and drier dry periods Slightly higher mean sea level More frequent and wider ranges of extreme sea level More water saturated soils

31 VIC simulated outflow at some downstream stations in Central Thailand Maeklong at Amphawa Chao Phraya at Rama 9 Bridge Bangpakong at Bangpakong Average flow rate (m 3 /s) VIC-1x VIC-1.5x VIC-2x Percent of change from baseline x Anomaly x Anomaly Jan -20 Mar May Jul Sep Nov -20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan -20 Mar May Jul Sep Nov

32 Climate Change Impact Assessment: Hydrology Example on hydrological analysis result: VIC model Wet VS Dry year scenario Climate condition: CO 2 = 540 ppm Wet VS Dry year scenario Climate condition: CO 2 = 720 ppm SEA START RC copyright 2008

33 Climate Change Impact Assessment: Agriculture How does future climate pattern alter crop production? How would climate change impact different crop management schemes? Future Climate scenarios Crop management scheme Potential increase of extreme event SEA START RC copyright 2008 Precipitation/ Tmax/ Tmin/ SRAD Crop Model Crop Yield Scenarios Future crop yield projection

35 Climate Change Impact Assessment: Agriculture Future climate conditions 1.0xCO2 1.5xCO2 2.0xCO2 Rice production in Savannakhet Rice production in Kula field, Thailand Onset of rains, dry spells Salt and sand Similar rice yields for dry, median and wet years Rice production in: Chiang Rai (CR) Sakonnakorn (SK) Sa Kaew (SW) Cassava production Khon Kaen Sugarcane production Khon Kaen Maize produciton Khon Kaen

36 Case Study Krabi Province

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2494-2523 2495-2524 2496-2525 2497-2526 2498-2527 2499-2528 2500-2529

2512-2541 2513-2542 2514-2543 2515-2544 2516-2545 2517-2546 2518-2547 2519-2548 2520-2549 2521-2550 0 1 2 3 4 5

37 Depressions Tropical Storms and Typhoons Historical Trend of Tropical Storms

38 Monsoonal Rainfall Onset and Offse 25 ป Base Line อนาคต 10 ป จากป จจ บ น อนาคต 25 ป จากป จจ บ น 20 ปร มาณน ำฝน (mm/day) ว นท

39 Annual Rainfall Change

40 Heavy Rain Days and Change

41 Case Study Mekong Delta

SEA START RC copyright 2008 Change in future

49 Adaptation Strategies Example: Coastal Sea Level Rise HISTORICAL EXTREME COINCIDENCES 2030 EXTREME RISK FOR COINCIDENCES Episodic Extremes Storm surge 1.0 m Episodic Extremes Buoyancy effect 0.5 m NE monsoon effect 0.5 m Annual Events Spring tide 1.0 m 2.3 m dike Mean sea level rise 0.3 m Land subsidence 0.3 m

50 Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Framework Current climate threats Observed climate condition / history Future climate threat Climate change scenarios field survey Bio-physical systems Socio-economic proxy & indicator for livelihood condition simulation Impact & Risk analysis Current livelihood condition assessment - Field survey Assess impact and risk on household livelihood condition Use proxy indicators to assess Non-climatic threat Future socio-economic scenarios Coping with risk Classify risk groups: Baseline VS Climate Impact Vulnerability Sensitivity to risk Exposure to risk Coping capacity At risk? No Yes Sustained system / sector Climate resilience No Adapt to change Threshold V&A analysis Yes External support Vulnerable systems / sectors

51 Adaptation by Systems/Sectors to Minimize Vulnerability to Climate Change V = f(risk of hazard, impact potential {coping range, system sensitivity to climate, systemclimate linkage}, adaptive capacity) (Desanker, 2004) Adaptation Options: Reduce risks, e.g. land use planning Reduce impacts, i.e. Reduce dependency on weather and climate, e.g. irrigation Increase flexibility and buffering to cope with climate, e.g. sufficient economy

52 Thank You

Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC

Chiang Rai Province CC Threat overview AAS1109 Mekong ARCC This threat overview relies on projections of future climate change in the Mekong Basin for the period 2045-2069 compared to a baseline of 1980-2005.