Energy Yield. Marcus Rennhofer Unit : Energy Yield

Transcription

1 Energy Yield Marcus Rennhofer Unit 11

2 Content Energy Yield Annual energy yield Generator quality measures Losses of energy Modelling Types of models Concepts of models Analytic models Statistic models Comparison of tools Costs Scaling effects Origin of cost reduction Pay-back time of costs or energy Reduction of CO2

3 1. Energy Yield

4 2-axial tracking Without tracking 2-axial tracking + 40 %

5 Distribution of irradiance Germany Site of facility has to be considered Technology choice South Italy 6th TFP Würzburg 2010, H.D. Mohring (ZSW)

6 Energy-Yield Today my PV-facility has 150 kwh powe. ENERGY!

7 Energy Yield Definition: Irradiance Facility size El. Energy

8 Energy-Yield Y F = t vo = E a P G0 [ kwh/kwp a ] = [ h/a ] full load hours Ea = annual energy yield (EAC fed into the grid) P G0 = PV nominal generator power

9 Energy-Yield: Different Technologies type full load hours [h] Photovoltaic free field 1000 Photovoltaic facade 650 Photovoltaic desert 2000 Wind power onshore 2000 Wind power offshore 3000 Hydro power (Danube river) 6000 Nuclear / brown coal 8000

10 Reminder: Composition of the irradiance H D H B H R b E, G, H Irradiance [kwh/m 2 ] Direct Irradiance Diffuse Irradiance Reflected (diffuse) Irradiance

11 Yield on the tilted plane: reminder

12 Reminder: Cooling and energy yield Yield: Y x Y 90 3 x Y 90 Convection Cooling

13 Yield Quality of generators Generator yield Radiation yield (Reference yield) Y A = E DC P G0 Y R = H G G 0 E a = Generator yield DC H G = irradiated energy (kwh /m2) G 0 = STC irradiance (1kW/m2) Generator losses L C = Y R Y A Inverter ultilization ratio DC to AC n l = Y F Y A Performance Ratio PR = Y F Y R

14 Losses: Optical 100% Air Solar glass ~ 1 % absorption 96% 95% ~ 4 % reflection % ~ 4 % reflection: with coupling 0% Solar cell

15 Ohmic losses A M 2 x L 1% U M x I MPP ST x k

16 How2: Ohmic losses What is the maximum length of a 6mm 2 PV-cable, in order to keep the ohmic losses below 1% for y system voltage of 100V? Specific resistance [ mm 2 /m] R = * L / F = 1/ L: Length, F: area : el. conductivity Voltage of system: U = R *I U = (L* I) / ( * F) L = 0.5 * ( 0.01 *U* * F) / I with: U =100 V, F = 6 mm 2, I ~ 6 A, (Cu) = 56 m / mm 2 L = 23 m

17 Losses through Shading Shading diagram (manual or automated)

18 Shading of close objects Optimal distance to Pv generator Distance to sun (150. Mio km) Distance of shading object to PV Diameter of sun Diameter of of shading object

19 Shading of PV plant by itself sin d b x (180 b ) sin

20 2. Modelling

21 Models types Photovoltaic Models Time step- Models Homer PVSyst PVSol Analytical Models INSEL TRNSYS Empiric models Reference days Matrix model Statistic model

22 By-Hand calculation Häberlin, Photovoltaik 2007

23 Time step models DESIRÉ PV-SYST PV-GIS PV-Sol Polysun Meteonorm

24 Model: PV-Sol

25 Empiric models Reference days

26 Empiric models Reference days not sufficient

27 Analytic Models: INSEL

28 Statistic Models: Gerda Schubert, ISE

29 Statistic Models: Gerda Schubert, ISE

30 3. Costs

31 Learning curve of PV Costs decrease with increasing cumulative production: learning curve: K costs K 0 initial costs L learning factor p production P 0 initial prod K p = K 0 L ln 2 p p 0 10 * Produktion ½ Kosten

32 Cost index ($/kw) Learning curve of PV 1.5 Nuclear Reactors France % % interval % interval 0.5 mean learning rate (115 case studies): -20% per doubling PVs Japan % Number of doublings (installed capacity) 0.0 Nakicenovic (2006)

33 Nuclear power: complex, final risk of W.C.S.

34 Fossiles mainly fuelling Europe: e.g. Lignite Coal in GER Astrid Schneider, Solar architect

35 Origin of cost reduction Electricity costs decrease Production costs decrease & Electricity costs decrease Efficiency increases at the same production costs & Electricity costs decrease Life time increases at same production costs

36 Origin of cost reduction 5 4 4: Cr Si: New Generation 5: TF: New Gen. & Nano-Physics, QT

37 Costs of electricity C = I a + C var Costs of electricity [ / kwh elektr. ] Y F C costs per kwh I investment a annuity Y F full load hours [h] = [kwh/kw p ] C var running costs kwh [ /kwh] (~ 0.7%-1% I) annuity a z, N = 1 + z N z 1 + z N 1 z interest rate (2%-6%) N run time 20a-30a)

38 Pay back time Cost pay back time T k [a] = I[ ] Y F,fin. /a solaranlagen.org Y F,fin financial yield reduced by running costs Energy pay back time T E [a] = E production[kwh] Y F kwh/a E production total energy for production

39 Cost reductiion vs. Electricity costs from the grid

40 Current facility costs in Austria (planning and installation) 1 kwp 10 kwp

41 Current facility costs

42 Example Austria: Residential facility: Investment 1800 EUR / kwp Yield: 950 kwh / kwp a Self consumption 40% (value ~0.2 ) Fed to grid: 60 % (value ~0.08 ) Pay off time: 14 a Residential facility and battery: battery 1200 EUR/ kwh *0,5 kwh/kwp investment PV: 1500 EUR / kwp Inves system: 2100 EUR / kwp yield: 950 kwh / kwp a Self consumation 70% (value ~0.2 ) Fed to grid: 30 % (value ~0.08 ) 16.6 ct / kwh yield 156 EUR /a Pay off time: 13,4 a Communal facility: investment 1500 EUR / kwp yield: 950 kwh / kwp a Life time: 25 a Running costs: 0.75% / a ageing: 20% nach 25 a Costs of electricity: 8 ct / kwh Nuclear power, linear calculated: Invest: 8000 EUR / kwp yield: 7000 kwh / kwp a Run time: 30 a Running costs: 0.5% / a Deposit and retreat: 1 G Costs of electricity : 4.8 ct (real costs approx. 11 ct)

43 Pay back time

44 CO2 reduction Conventional mix: 0.65 kg CO 2 / kwh Photovoltaik-web.de Bio mass: per t Bio mass and year: 1,5 t CO 2 bound 1,1 t O2 produced Ch. Krumphuber LK, ÖO 2009 Photovoltaics per kwp installed capacity and year 1 MWh energy produced (Middel Europe) 0.65 t CO 2 avoided 4-10 CO 2 -certificates saved

45 VISIT AIT-Laboratory PVS Arrival by: Subway U6 (floridsdorf) + S-Bahn (Siemensstrasse) Subway U1 (Kargraner Platz) + 31A (Heinrich von Buol Gasse)

46 Thank you for your attention! Cloudiness index