VCMC: Variational Consensus Monte Carlo

Transcription

1 VCMC: Variational Consensus Monte Carlo Maxim Rabinovich, Elaine Angelino, Michael I. Jordan Berkeley Vision and Learning Center September 22, 2015

2 probabilistic models! sky fog bridge water grass object tracking & recognition personalized recommendations genomics & phylogenetics small molecule discovery

3 Outline Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC is hard New data parallel algorithms VCMC: Our approach and theoretical results Empirical evaluation

4 Bayesian models encode uncertainty using probabilities Probability distribution over model parameters π(α, β, σ x, y) y A model is a probabilistic description of data x y i N (αx i + β, σ 2 )

5 Bayesian inference uses Bayes rule π(θ x) posterior π(θ) prior π(x θ) likelihood Model parameters θ = (α, β, σ) Data x = {(x 1, y 1 ), (x 2, y 2 ),..., (x 10, y 10 )} Probabilistic model of data y i N (αx i + β, σ 2 )

6 In general, posterior distributions are difficult to work with Normalizing involves an integral that is often intractable π(θ x) = Θ π(θ)π(x θ) π(θ)π(x θ)dθ

7 In general, posterior distributions are difficult to work with Normalizing involves an integral that is often intractable π(θ x) = Θ π(θ)π(x θ) π(θ)π(x θ)dθ Expectations w.r.t. the posterior = More intractable integrals E π [f ] = f (θ)π(θ x)dθ Θ (These are statistics that distill information about the posterior)

8 Solution: Monte Carlo integration Given a finite set of samples θ 1, θ 2,..., θ T π(θ x)

9 Solution: Monte Carlo integration Given a finite set of samples θ 1, θ 2,..., θ T π(θ x) Estimate an intractable expectation as a sum: E π [f ] = Θ f (θ)π(θ x)dθ 1 T T f (θ t ) t=1

10 Solution: Monte Carlo integration Given a finite set of samples θ 1, θ 2,..., θ T π(θ x) Estimate an intractable expectation as a sum: E π [f ] = Θ f (θ)π(θ x)dθ 1 T T f (θ t ) t=1 i.e., replace a distribution with samples from it: y y x x

11 Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Widely used class of sampling algorithms Sample by simulating a Markov chain (biased random walk) whose stationary distribution (after convergence) is the posterior θ 1, θ 2,..., θ T π(θ x) Use samples for Monte Carlo integration E π [f ] = f (θ)π(θ x)dθ 1 T Θ T f (θ t ) t=1

12 Outline Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC is hard New data parallel algorithms VCMC: Our approach and theoretical results Empirical evaluation

13 Traditional MCMC Serial, iterative algorithm for generating samples Slow for two reasons: (1) Large number of iterations required to converge (2) Each iteration depends on the entire dataset Most innovation in MCMC has targeted (1) Recent threads of work target (2)

14 Serial MCMC Data Single core Samples

15 Data-parallel MCMC Data Parallel cores Samples

16 Aggregate samples from across partitions but how? Data Parallel cores Samples Aggregate

17 Factorization ( ) motivates a data-parallel approach π(θ x) posterior π(θ) prior π(x θ) likelihood = J π(θ) 1/J π(x (j) θ) sub-posterior j=1

18 Factorization ( ) motivates a data-parallel approach π(θ x) posterior π(θ) prior π(x θ) likelihood = J π(θ) 1/J π(x (j) θ) sub-posterior j=1 Partition the data as x (1),..., x (J) across J cores The jth core samples from a distribution proportional to the jth sub-posterior (a piece of the full posterior) Aggregate the sub-posterior samples to form approximate full posterior samples

19 Aggregation strategies for sub-posterior samples π(θ x) posterior π(θ) prior π(x θ) likelihood = J π(θ) 1/J π(x (j) θ) sub-posterior j=1 Sub-posterior density estimation (Neiswanger et al, UAI 2014) Weierstrass samplers (Wang & Dunson, 2013) Weighted averaging of sub-posterior samples Consensus Monte Carlo (Scott et al, Bayes 250, 2013) Variational Consensus Monte Carlo (Rabinovich et al, NIPS 2015)

20 Aggregate horizontally ( ) across partions Data Parallel cores Samples Aggregate

21 Recall that samples are parameter vectors (, ) (, ) =

22 Naïve aggregation = Average Aggregate(, ) = 0.5 x x

23 Less naïve aggregation = Weighted average Aggregate(, ) = 0.58 x x

24 Consensus Monte Carlo (Scott et al, 2013) Aggregate(, ) Aggregate(, ) = x + x Weights are inverse covariance matrices Motivated by Gaussian assumptions Designed at Google for the MapReduce framework

25 Outline Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC is hard New data parallel algorithms VCMC: Our approach and theoretical results Empirical evaluation

26 Variational Consensus Monte Carlo Goal: Choose the aggregation function to best approximate the target distribution Method: Convex optimization via variational Bayes

27 Variational Consensus Monte Carlo Goal: Choose the aggregation function to best approximate the target distribution Method: Convex optimization via variational Bayes F = aggregation function q F = approximate distribution L (F ) objective = E qf [log π (X, θ)] likelihood + H [q F ] entropy

28 Variational Consensus Monte Carlo Goal: Choose the aggregation function to best approximate the target distribution Method: Convex optimization via variational Bayes F = aggregation function q F = approximate distribution L (F ) objective = E qf [log π (X, θ)] likelihood + H [q F ] relaxed entropy

29 Variational Consensus Monte Carlo Goal: Choose the aggregation function to best approximate the target distribution Method: Convex optimization via variational Bayes F = aggregation function q F = approximate distribution L (F ) objective = E qf [log π (X, θ)] likelihood + H [q F ] relaxed entropy No mean field assumption

30 Variational Consensus Monte Carlo Aggregate(, ) Aggregate(, ) = x + x Optimize over weight matrices ( ) Restrict to valid solutions when parameter vectors constrained

31 Variational Consensus Monte Carlo Theorem (Entropy relaxation) Under mild structural assumptions, we can choose H [q F ] = c K K h k (F ), k=1 with each h k a concave function of F such that H [q F ] H [q F ]. We therefore have L (F ) L (F ).

32 Variational Consensus Monte Carlo Theorem (Concavity of the variational Bayes objective) Under mild structural assumptions, the relaxed variational Bayes objective L (F ) = E qf [log π (X, θ)] + H [q F ] is concave in F.

33 Outline Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC is hard New data parallel algorithms VCMC: Our approach and theoretical results Empirical evaluation

34 Empirical evaluation Compare 3 aggregation strategies: Uniform average Gaussian-motivated weighted average (CMC) Optimized weighted average (VCMC) For each algorithm A, report approximation error of some expectation E π [f ], relative to serial MCMC Preliminary speedup results ɛ A (f ) = E A [f ] E MCMC [f ] E MCMC [f ]

35 Example 1: High-dimensional Bayesian probit regression #data = 100, 000, d = 300 First moment estimation error, relative to serial MCMC (Error truncated at 2.0)

36 Example 2: High-dimensional covariance estimation Normal-inverse Wishart model #data = 100, 000, #dim = 100 = 5, 050 parameters (L) First moment estimation error (R) Eigenvalue estimation error

37 Example 3: Mixture of 8, 8-dim Gaussians Error relative to serial MCMC, for cluster comembership probabilities of pairs of test data points

38 VCMC error decreases as the optimization runs longer Initialize VCMC with CMC weights (inverse covariance matrices)

39 VCMC reduces CMC error at the cost of speedup ( 2x) VCMC speedup is approximately linear CMC VCMC

40 Concluding thoughts Contributions Convex optimization framework for Consensus Monte Carlo Structured aggregation accounting for constrained parameters Entropy relaxation Empirical evaluation Future work More structured and complex (latent variable) models Alternate posterior factorizations and aggregation schemes We d love to hear about your Bayesian inference problems!

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42 Example 1: High-dimensional Bayesian probit regression First Uniform Gaussian VCMC Subposteriors 2.0 Second (Mixed) First Uniform Gaussian VCMC Partial posteriors 2.0 Second (Mixed) 1.5 Error Error Number of cores Number of cores Number of cores Number of cores Figure: High-dimensional probit regression (d = 300). Moment approximation error for the uniform and Gaussian averaging baselines and VCMC, relative to serial MCMC, for (left) subposteriors and (right) partial posteriors. We assessed three groups of functions: first moments, with f (β) = β j for 1 j d; pure second moments, with f (β) = βj 2 for 1 j d; and mixed second moments, with f (β) = β i β j for 1 i < j d. For brevity, results for pure second moments are relegated to the supplement. Relative errors are truncated to 2 in all cases.

43 Example 2: High-dimensional covariance estimation Error First Uniform Gaussian VCMC Number of cores 0.4 Second (Pure) Number of cores 0.4 Second (Mixed) Number of cores Figure: High-dimensional normal-inverse Wishart model (d = 100). (Far left, left, right) Moment approximation error for the uniform and Gaussian averaging baselines and VCMC, relative to serial MCMC. Letting ρ j denote the j th largest eigenvalue of Λ 1, we assessed three groups of functions: first moments, with f (Λ) = ρ j for 1 j d; pure second moments, with f (Λ) = ρ 2 j for 1 j d; and mixed second moments, with f (Λ) = ρ i ρ j for 1 i < j d. (Far right) Graph of error in estimating E [ρ j ] as a function of j (where ρ 1 ρ 2 ρ d ).

44 Example 3: Mixture of 8, 8-dim Gaussians Figure: Mixture of Gaussians (d = 8, L = 8). Expectation approximation error for the uniform and Gaussian baselines and VCMC. We report the median error, relative to serial MCMC, for cluster comembership probabilities of pairs of test data points, for (left) σ = 1 and (right) σ = 2, where we run the VCMC optimization procedure for 50 and 200 iterations, respectively. When σ = 2, some comembership probabilities are estimated poorly by all methods; we therefore only use the 70% of comembership probabilities with the smallest errors across all the methods.

45 Computational efficiency Figure: Error versus timing and speedup measurements. (Left) VCMC error as a function of number of seconds of optimization. The cost of optimization is nonnegligible, but still moderate compared to serial MCMC particularly since our optimization scheme only needs small batches of samples and can therefore operate concurrently with the sampler. (Right) Error versus speedup relative to serial MCMC, for both CMC with Gaussian averaging (small markers) and VCMC (large markers). In this case, the cost of optimization is small enough that a near linear speedup is achieved.