PRESS PRognose og EnergiStyrings System

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Helena Hines
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1 P*R*E*S*S PRgne g EnergiStyring Sytem Henrik Maden, Trben Skv Nielen hm@immdtudk Infrmatic and Mathematical Mdelling Technical Univerity f Denmark ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p1/25

2 lacement nth T T r mn mn [GJ r C nth nth mn T[kW [ C C Overview r a h lacement nth T mn [GJ r C C nth nth [ [m 3 T /hur C nth mn [kw T r mn [GJ a h Intrductin r C nth nth [m mn 3 T[kW [ /hur C C r a h nth T mn Optimal peratin f DH ytem r [ [m 3 T /hur C C C T r mn a mn On-line predictin f heat lad r [ C C [m T 3 T /hur r mn a [ C C Cntrl f upply temperature r [m 3 T /hur [ C Reult at Rkilde Ditrict Heating Utility uing PRESS T a r [ C [m 3 T/hur a [ Cncluin C [m 3 /hur Demntratin ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p2/25

3 nth [kw h lacement nth [GJ nth nth [ C Intrductin nth [kw T mn [GJ h C nth nth mn [kw [ C r h In Denmark cle t 60% f the dmetic heating intallatin nth T mn [ T C C C are upplied frm DH ytem, hence the ubject f ptimal T r mn mn peratin f DH utilitie ha a huge ecnmic ptential r [ C C T T r mn a [ C C A DH ytem cnit f three primary part: r C [m 3 T /hur [ C T a C One r mre central heat prducing unit r [ C [m 3 T/hur a [ C A ditributin netwrk (DNW) [m 3 /hur Cnumer intallatin fr pace heating and ht tap water prductin Optimal peratin f a DH utility implie that the peratin f all three part in the ytem huld be ptimized ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p3/25

4 PRESS Overview Netwrk Data Lcal MET Data Plant Data MET Frecat replacement pr mnth [GJ mnth [kw h pr mnth [ C T mn [ C T r mn [ C T [ C T r [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur Lad Frecat 1h, 2h,, 24h Lad Frecat Lng Term (<5d) P*R*E*S*S Data Cllectin and Validatin Statitic Temperature Optim and Cntrl ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p4/25

5 Optimal peratin f DNW The peratinal ct fr the DNW i minimized by ptimizing the criterin: C DN t = min E { N i=1 [ P heat ( E l + E cn ) + C pump } ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p5/25

6 Optimal peratin f DNW The peratinal ct fr the DNW i minimized by ptimizing the criterin: C DN t = min E N i=1 P heat ( E l where heat price = fun (T, T r, E diur ), + E cn ) + C pump ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p5/25

7 Optimal peratin f DNW The peratinal ct fr the DNW i minimized by ptimizing the criterin: C DN t = min E N i=1 P heat E l + E cn + C pump where heat price = fun (T, T r, E diur ), cnumer lad i given, ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p5/25

8 Optimal peratin f DNW The peratinal ct fr the DNW i minimized by ptimizing the criterin: C DN t = min E N i=1 P heat E l + E cn + C pump where heat price = fun (T, T r, E diur ), cnumer lad i given, heat l A T a dnw da ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p5/25

9 Optimal peratin f DNW The peratinal ct fr the DNW i minimized by ptimizing the criterin: C DN t = min E N P heat i=1 E l + E cn + C pump where heat price = fun (T, T r, E diur ), cnumer lad i given, heat l A T a dnw da and pumping ct 10% f heat l ct ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p5/25

10 Optimal peratin f DNW The peratinal ct fr the DNW i minimized by ptimizing the criterin: C DN t = min E N P heat i=1 E l + E cn + C pump where heat price = fun (T, T r, E diur ), cnumer lad i given, heat l A T a dnw da and pumping ct 10% f heat l ct The fllwing retrictin mut be berved: Tc, in >= Tc,min(T ) a c A, i = 1N q <= q ma i = 1N where T in c, i cnumer inlet temperature and q i flw rate at the upply pint ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p5/25

11 lacement Optimal peratin f DNW (cnt) lacement nth [GJ nth nth [kw [GJ h The tated tchatic ptimizatin criterin can be reduced t nth nth [kw [ C h the impler nth T mn [ The peratinal ct f the ditributin netwrk can be C C T r mn ptimized by minimizing the upply temperature under the mn [ C T T retrictin that flw rate and cnumer inlet temperature r mn [ C T r are kept within acceptable bund [ C T a C under the aumptin that r [ C [m 3 T/hur a [ C diurnal peak lad and return temperature d nt increae, [m 3 /hur large and frequent fluctuatin in the upply temperature are avided On-line predictin f lcal ambient temperature and heat lad are eential ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p6/25

12 T r C pr replacement mn mnth [ T C [kw [GJ h r On-line predictin f heat lad pr replacement T mn mnth [ T r C [kw [GJ [ C h T r mn a [ C pr replacement mnth T mn r [kw [GJ [ C C h [m 3 T /hur [ C r pr pr replacement mnth mnth T mn T a [kw C A mdule fr hrt term predictin (up t 24 hur) r [ C [m 3 T /hur [GJ [ C h r pr pr mnth T mn T a [ C [kw [GJ [ C C h T r A mdule fr lng term predictin (up t, ay, 5 day) pr [mmnth mnth T 3 r /hur [kw[ C C T a r h Take int accunt: pr mnth T r Q [m 3 [ /hur C C T a r T Lcal ambient temperature r mn Q [m 3 [ C /hur a r T T Lcal wind peed r mn Q [m 3 [ C T /hur a r [ C Lcal lar radiatin Q [m 3 T/hur a r [ C Available (n-line) MET frecat Q [m 3 T/hur a [ C Sytematic variatin in heat cnumptin Q [m 3 /hur Accumulated heat in the net ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p7/25

13 nth [ C C T r mn Cntrl f upply temperature mn [ C T T r mn [ C T r The tchatic ptimizatin prblem i cnverted t a et f [ C T a cntrl prblem: r [ C [m 3 /hur lacement T a [ C ne flw cntrller and, [m 3 /hur lacement nth [GJ a number f netwrk temperature cntrller, nth [kw h lacement nth [GJ where the retrictin f the ptimizatin prblem act a nth nth [ C reference value fr the cntrller The reference value are nth [kw T determined that the prbability f vilating a retrictin i mn [GJ h C nth nth mn [kw[ C h r le than a fied (mall) value nth T mn [ T C C The upply temperature i fund a the maimum f the T r mn mn [ r required upply temperature fr the individual cntrller C T T r mn a [ C Furthermre the upply temperature i ubject t: r [m 3 T /hur [ C T a retrictin in rate f change, r [ C [m 3 T/hur a [ C minimum and maimum value, and [m 3 /hur a diurnal increae t reduce peak lad T mn ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p8/25

14 Reference net-pint temperature curve T np ˆσ f(ta) G(f(T a )) frag replacement ˆσ T np heat lacement pr mnth [GJ T 0 np ecnth pr mnth [GJ [kw h ay nth pr [kwmnth h [ C T mn [ Ω nth [ C C 2 T T r mn [ C mn [ C T r mn [ C T [ C T r [ Ω T C 1 [ C T T a [ r [ C C T Q [m 3 a [ C /hur f( ˆT a ) f(t a ) [m 3 /hur Ntice: The predictin ambient temperature i lw-pa filtered ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p9/25

15 Cntrl f upply temperature (cnt) g replacement pr mnth [GJ r mnth [kw h pr mnth [ C T mn [ C T r mn [ C T [ C T r [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur T np1 (t) T np2 (t) T (t) T np3 (t) T 0 (t + 1) FSC SC1 SC2 SC3 T 0,f (t + 1) T,np1 0 (t + 1) T,np2 0 (t + 1) T,np3 0 (t + 1) OC ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p10/25

16 Cntrl f upply temperature (cnt) The netpint temperature cntrl i implemented uing the XGPC cntrller: min u t J(Γ t, Λ t, ω t ; t, u t ) = E[(y t y 0 t ) T Γ t (y t y 0 t ) + u T t Λ t u t + 2ω T t y t = H t u t + v t + e t The flw rate cntrl i implemented uing the relatin p t = c w q t (T t T r t ) The upply temperature i fund a T t+1 = N u i=1 w i [ ˆT t r + ˆp t c w q 0 ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p11/25

17 pr T [ C nth mnth T [GJ [ C C T r [ C nth [kw T r mn h Cntrl [ C f upply temperature (cnt) T a [ C nth T T [m 3 r [ mn C [ C /hur T T r [ C The netpint temperature cntrller i implemented uing mn [ C a T T r [ C the extended Generalized Predictive Cntrller (XGPC) r mn [ Q [m 3 C T/hur lacement a [ The XGPC handle time-varying ytem T C [ C Q [m 3 /hur nth T r [GJ [ C Time-varying and unknwn time delay are handled by nth T[kW a [ C h the XGPC cntrller [m nth 3 /hur [ C The flw rate cntrl i implemented uing the relatin T mn [ C p t = c w q t (Tt Tt r ) The upply temperature i fund a T r mn [ C N u [ Tt+1 = w i ˆT t r + ˆp T [ C t T c w q i=1 0 r [ C T a [ C [m 3 /hur The cntrller ue the predicted heat lad and the predicted utdr air temperature frm the predictin mdule f PRESS ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p12/25

18 nth mn [kw r h lacement nth T mn [GJ C nth nth T The Rkilde ditrict heating utility mn [kw[ C h lacement nth T r mn [GJ r C nth nth mn T[kW [ C h lacement nth T r mn [GJ a Sme fact regarding the Rkilde ditrict heating utility are: r C nth nth [ C [m 3 T /hur C nth mn [kw T r mn [GJ h a Supply area i Rkilde City and uburb r C nth nth [m mn 3 T[kW [ /hur C h r a nth T mn Heat i upplied by VEKS (CHP and wate incineratin) r [ [m 3 T /hur C C T r mn a mn [ Annual heat purchae i 1,700,000 GJ r C [m T 3 T /hur r mn a [ C Annual electricity purchae i 1,500,000 kwh r [m 3 T /hur [ C T a Maimum lad i 110 MW r [ C [m 3 T/hur a [ C Heat l in ditributin netwrk 22% (2000) [m 3 /hur Prir t PRESS the upply temperature wa changed peridically by the peratr ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p13/25

19 nth r [ C C lacement nth [GJ T Calculatin f aving nth T mn [ C nth [kw T mn T r [GJ h r C nth nth [kw[ a C h T The aving btained by PRESS have been etimated by: [m nth T mn 3 T/hur [ r C C Mdelling heat purchae (energy) a fct f degree day T r mn mn [ a C per mnth befre and after PRESS T T [mr mn 3 [ /hur C Mdelling elec purchae (energy) a fct f degree day T r [ C T a per mnth befre and after PRESS r [ C [m 3 T/hur a [ C Crrect berved purchae t tandard year [m 3 /hur Check that return temperature and peak lad unaffected by PRESS (ie the energy price i unchanged) T mn Degree day fr a mnth i calculated a Day in mnth ma(0, 17 T diur a ) ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p14/25

20 Heat purchae veru degree day eplacement mnth [kw h T mn T mn [ C r [ C T [ C T r [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur Eheat pr mnth [GJ Degree day pr mnth [ C ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p15/25

21 Supply temperature veru degree day eplacement mnth [GJ mnth [kw h T mn T mn [ C r [ C T r [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur T [ C Degree day pr mnth [ C ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p16/25

22 Electricity purchae veru degree day eplacement mnth [GJ T mn T mn [ C r [ C T [ C T r [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur Eelec pr mnth [kw h Degree day pr mnth [ C ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p17/25

23 Return temperature veru degree day eplacement mnth [GJ mnth [kw h T mn T mn [ C r [ C T [ C Tr [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur Degree day pr mnth [ C ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p18/25

24 Calculatin f aving (cnt) The etimated heat purchae a functin f degree day i (given a): 2000 : E heat mn = 217 GJ C T dd mn GJ 2001 : E heat mn = 208 GJ C T dd mn GJ The etimated electricity purchae a functin f degree day i (given a): 2000 : E elec mn = ˆf(T dd mn) 2001 : E elec mn = 251 kw h C T dd mn kW h where ˆf() i an etimated lcal regrein line uing a ecnd rder plynmial apprimatin ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p19/25

25 nth nth [GJ [ C nth T mn [kw[ C h Calculatin f aving (cnt) lacement nth T r mn [ C C T Uing the etimated functin fr each f the firt nine mnth nth T mn [GJ [ C T r f a nrmal year befre and after the intallatin f PRESS nth T r mn [kw[ C h give: a nth T [m 3 [ C C /hur T T r A difference in heat purchae f -37,400 GJ crrepnding mn [ C T T a t a reductin in heating ct f 1,760,000 Dkr r mn [ C [m 3 T/hur [ C A difference in electricity purchae f 149,000 kwh T r [ C crrepnding t an increae in electricity ct f T a [ C 194,000 Dkr [m 3 /hur An etimated reductin f the peratinal ct crrepnd t 1,566,000 Dkr fr the firt nine mnth f a nrmal year The aving are calculated auming that the ct per unit energy i unchanged ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p20/25

26 nth [ C C T r mn Evaluatin f quality f cntrl mn [ C T T r mn [ C T r C The cntrl quality i aeed by evaluating hw well the [ C T a cntrller ha berved the retrictin: r [ C [m 3 T/hur a [ C The net-pint temperature minimum limit [m 3 /hur The flw maimum limit T mn Fr the Rkilde intallatin the flw limit ha been elected t avid tarting a ecndary pump, ie the flw limit i nt a capacity limit In perid with high lad the flw limit will be eceeded ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p21/25

27 Net-pint temp veru diurnal mean air temp eplacement mnth [GJ mnth [kw h mnth [ C T mn [ C T mn r [ C T [ C T r [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p22/25

28 Flw rate veru time eplacement mnth [GJ mnth [kw h mnth [ C T mn [ C T r mn [ C T [ C T r [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nv Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p23/25

29 The flw f data and calculatin PSfrag replacement E heat pr mnth [GJ E elec pr mnth [kw h egree day pr mnth [ C T mn T mn [ C r [ C T [ C T r [ C T a [ C Q [m 3 /hur Obervatin Predictin f heat lad Preentatin f predictin and bervatin Predictin Calculatin Mdule (PRESS-N) Preentatin Mdule (PRESS-P) ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p24/25

30 lacement nth [kw h nth nth [GJ [ C Cncluin nth T mn [kw[ C h lacement nth T r mn [ C C A ytem, PRESS, fr ptimizing the peratin f DNW ha nth T mn T [GJ been preented PRESS minimize the upply temperature [ C lacement nth T r baed n feedback frm the DNW In Rkilde the ue f T mn [kw r [ h C nth a [ T PRESS ha reulted in the fllwing benefit: C lacement nth [GJ C nth [m T mn 3 T/hur [kw r [ C C h lacement nth A ubtantial reductin in energy ct ( 1,500,000 Dkr T mn [GJ r T fr the 9 mnth perid cnidered), a C C nth nth [ C nth [kw [m T mn 3 T /hur [GJ h C nth nth T An imprved quality f cntrl mn [kw[ r C h r nth T mn a [ T In general we ee C C [m T r mn 3 /hur mn [ r C The btained reductin f upply temperature i f the T T r mn a [ C C rder 3 t 10 degree r [m 3 T /hur [ C Reductin f peek lad T a r [ C [m 3 T/hur a [ C Le need fr ecndary prductin unit [m 3 /hur The ytem detect pipe-line where an upgrade i mt benificial ABB Värmekraftdagar, September 11 12, 2003 p25/25

CONTROL OF SUPPLY TEMPERATURE IN DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS

CONTROL OF SUPPLY TEMPERATURE IN DISTRICT HEATING SYSTEMS TS Nielsen, H Madsen Infrmatics and Mathematical Mdelling, The Technical University f Denmark, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark Tel: +45 4525 3428, Fa: