SCEC SoSAFE Workshop: Recent Successes and Future Challenges. September 10, 2016
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1 SCEC SoSAFE Workshop: Recent Successes and Future Challenges September 10, 2016
2 9:00 Introductions 9:15-11:45 EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE AND SLIP OVER SHORT AND LONG TERM: HOW DOES IT ALL ADD UP Creep and other EQ cycle challenges from recent observations (9:15-10:15) 15 min each Toke: The Dry Lake Valley site: Observations of structures formed by modern and prehistoric creep on the central SAF Dawson: South Napa 2013 trenches: creep, afterslip, missed events! Lindsey: Creep on the Imperial Fault and new faults in the Salton Trough Milliner: Near field and off fault deformation revealed using optical image correlation Adding up slip: Segment boundaries and slip rate variations (10:30-11:45) 15 min each Cooke: Slip rates and distributed deformation in and around San Gorgonio Pass Onderdonk: Earthquake displacements and timing of events at Quincy and Mystic Lake, SJF Salisbury: Investigating the age and origin of small offsets at Van Matre Ranch along the SAF, Carrizo Plain, California Discussion: What does slip rate variability mean for fault and crustal rheologies? Why aren t paleoseismic/geologic data used as constraints on this? Proposal and project ideas. (30 min) LUNCH 1-3 INTEGRATING EARTHQUAKE AND PALEOCLIMATE/PALEOENVIRONMENTAL CHRONOLOGIES ON THE SoSAFE SYSTEM Rockwell: A lake-based event chronology for the Southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults (15 min) Scharer: Can sediment accumulation curves discriminate between proximal event records on the southern SAF? (15 min) Kirby: Holocene droughts, fires, floods and pluvials in southwestern California (30 min) McKay: On the PAGES2k project, paleoclimate cyberinfrastructure and integrating paleoclimatology and paleoseismology (30 min) Discussion: Where does SoSAFE go to advance this research (30 min, Arrowsmith lead) 3:15-4:45 OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: BROAD APPLICATIONS OF BEHAVIOR OF HIGH SLIP RATE FAULTS Biasi: So many earthquakes, so little time: An examination of SAF-system earthquake recurrence Gilchrist: RSQSim for paleoseismologists; what s under the hood and SoCal results Milner: Data integration and visualization tools for bringing paleoseismic data and simulator results together Discussion and Wrap up (30 min) Earthquake geology data and metadata needs Paleoseismology in CISM Simulator opportunities Adieu to SoSAFE!
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4 Can sediment accumulation curves discriminate between proximal event records on the southern San Andreas Fault? Kate Scharer, USGS SoSAFE Workshop 2016 LA Frazier Mountain 1 km 2 Precip: ~13 in / yr Elevation: m Relief: 500 m Pallett Creek 100 km 2 Precip: ~25-5 in / yr Elevation: m Relief: 1200 m Wrightwood 1 km 2 Precip: ~25 in / yr Elevation: m Relief: 500 m
5 Distance along SAF A.D. Radiocarbon ages permit correlation along entire stretch of 1857 rupture ca AD, = M7.9 earthquake For example, PCT and FM7 ages overlap by 16 years Note EL4 and FM7 ages entirely overlap Scharer et al., 2014 GRL
6 But stratigraphically, timing may be differentiated if we can rely on paleoenvironmental proxies PCT and EL4 occur before a thick soil FM7 occurs after deposition of thick clay, within a soil unit silt soil EL4 silt-sand
7 Wrightwood 12 meters section 44 clastic layers 15 earthquakes 3000 years Dozens of radiocarbon dates
8 Sedimentation Event Return Interval 37 yr Short RI contemporaneous with high sedimentation rates ( high rate/short RI ) Clastic Accumulation Rate (cm/yr) 0.6 cm/yr Cumulative Thickness (cm) Cumulative Frequency 12 yr 2 cm/yr 0.4 cm/yr 236 yr Earthquakes Dated Interpolated Calendar Year (A.D.)
9 Wrightwood Clastic (debris flow) Accumulation Curve
10 Sediment Accumulation Curves
11 Sediment Accumulation Curves
12 Sediment Accumulation Curves
13 WW (cm) Sediment Accumulation Curves
14 Published climate records: Tree rings (drought/wet or hot/cold), correlated to PDO Pollen data (drought/wet) Lake elevations (drought/wet) Glacial advances (cold, wet?) ENSO: higher snow elevations SBB foram records SST Variability (mixing) MWA LIA
15 Drought + hot Drought Cold Wet Really wet Mixed Transition from MWA to LIA coincident with roll over in sedimentation rates Changes in climatic regime coincident with changes in clastic accumulation rate at WW Subdued signal at FM, PC attenuated and less consistent Spike in sed rates (non-eq induced?) during strong ppdo High sed rates during hot drought (w EQs!) Complex signal!
16 Back to the original question: Stratigraphically, timing may be differentiated if we can rely on paleoenvironmental proxies PCT and EL4 occur before a thick soil FM7 occurs after deposition of thick clay, within a soil unit silt soil EL4 silt-sand
17 Distance along SAF A.D. How should we tap into the paleoearthquake records for paleoenvironmental proxy data? How best to systematize this? Who should we go to for funding? No need to invent the wheel!
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