National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and an integrated system for sharing information, J-SHIS

Transcription

1 National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan and an integrated system for sharing information, J-SHIS H. Fujiwara, N.Morikawa, K. XS. Hao National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience

2 National seismic hazard maps for Japan Long term evaluation Strong-motion evaluation Modeling earthquake faults Strong motion simulation Probability of occurrence, magnitude, location Strong-motion, velocity structure Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps Showing the strong-motion intensity with a given probability, or the probability with a given intensity. Considering all possible earthquakes. Showing the strong-motion intensity around the fault for a specified earthquake. Recipe for strong motion prediction

3 Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion /17 Hyogo-ken nanbu (Kobe) earthquake occurred. (Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake disaster) 1995 July Special Measure Law on Earthquake Disaster Prevention was enacted in order to promote the earthquake disaster prevention measures. The Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion, a special governmental organization attached to the Prime Minister's office (now belongs to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology), was established in accordance with this law. Basic Objectives and Roles To promote research into earthquakes with the goal of strengthening disaster prevention measures, particularly for the reduction of damage and casualties from earthquakes. 1.Planning of comprehensive and basic policies 2. Coordination of budgets and other administrative works with related governmental organizations 3. Establishment of comprehensive survey and observation plans 4. Collection, arrangement, analysis and comprehensive evaluation of survey results by related governmental organizations, universities, etc. 5. Public announcements based on the comprehensive evaluations

4 Evaluation of occurrence probability of earthquakes by ERCJ, HERP

5 Flowchart of PSHA Modeling of seismic activity Evaluation of an EQ occurrence probability P(Ei) Probabilistic evaluation of an intensity level P(Yi > y Ei) Evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard for each earthquake P(Yi > y)= P(Ei) P(Yi > y Ei) Evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard for all earthquakes P(Y > y)=1-π[1- P(Yi > y)]

6 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps Probability in 30 years. ( JMA Seismic Intensity 6-) Seismic Intensity with 3% probability of exceedance in 30 year.

7 Improvement of seismic hazard assessment after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake This mega-earthquake was not considered in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan Reconsideration of seismic activity model Nankai (Mw8.0~9.1) Sagami (Mw7.9~8.6) Maximum magnitude of background EQs Updating the model of large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough and the Sagami Trough based on the revised long-term evaluation Updating the maximum magnitude (Mu) of background earthquakes (Pacific plate, Philippine Sea plate and crust)

8 Revised probabilistic seismic hazard maps (2014 version; published on Dec.19, 2014) 2014 version 2010 version 2014ver.-2010ver. (new model) (old model) Probability in 30 years. ( JMA Seismic Intensity 6-) HERP (2014) The hazard level in a new (2014) version of probabilistic seismic hazard map is higher than that in old version. This tendency is remarkable in the range of low-probability because large magnitude with low-frequency earthquakes are considered in the revised 2014 version.

9 Strong-motion maps considering low-probability earthquakes 1,000 year 10,000 year 100,000 year Based on the averaged long-term seismic hazard assessment, evaluating strong-motion level for 10,000 ~100,000 years return period, we should prepare the maps that show the distribution of strong-motion level, which represent effect of major earthquakes on active faults and subduction zone earthquakes with low-probability. Regarding the seismic hazard assessment for low probability, at present, it is insufficient to evaluate the uncertainty for low probability M8 class earthquakes and it is necessary to improve techniques for them.

10 Scenario Earthquake Shaking Maps The shaking maps are evaluated for 500 scenario earthquakes of almost all of major faults in Japan. Selection of a specified scenario is essential to make a shaking map. The basic policy of the selection of a scenario earthquake is that we choose the most probable case. For treatment of uncertainties, we assume several cases of source model and compare the results of them to show deviation of strong-motion evaluation due to uncertainties.

11 Hybrid method for evaluation of strong-motion Matching filter Low frequency range Finite Difference Method Low frequency range High frequency range High frequency range Stochastic Green s function method Superposition deterministic Stochastic The technical details on the hybrid method are summarized as the Recipe for strong-motion evaluation, which are published by the earthquake research committee of Japan.

12 Modeling of velocity structure Surface soil Source Seismic bedrock (Vs=3km/s) Engineering bedrock (Vs=0.4~0.7km/s) Deep underground structure Sediment The deep velocity structure from the crust and plates up to seismic bedrock; The structure of sediments from the seismic bedrock up to engineering bedrock (Vs=400m/s~700m/s); The structure of surface soils from the engineering bedrock up to the ground surface. Flowchart of structure modeling

13 Development of Integrated Geophysical and Geological Information Database NIED-DB Geo-Station Tokyo Institute of Technology 被害予測イメージ ( モデル建物 Aの場合 ) 崩壊大破中破小破軽微 AIST-DB ERI of Tokyo University geological information PWRI-DB soil dynamics MLIT KuniJiban GJI-DB Municipalities DB

14 Kumamoto Earthquakes Distribution of JMA seismic intensity by SIP real-time damage estimation system 2016/04/14 21:26 Mj6.5 (Mw6.1) 2016/04/16 1:25 Mj7.3 (Mw7.0)

15 Active faults in kyushu Futagawa fault zone and Hinagu fault zone Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion of Japan

16 Long-term evaluation for Futagawa fault zone and Hinagu fault zone (2013) Futagawa fault zone Segment Length Magnitude Probability (30 year) Futagawa About 19km About Mj7.0 0~0.9 % Uto About 20km About Mj7.0 - North coast of Uto Peninsula More than about 27km More than about Mj7.2 - Hinagu fault zone Segment Length Magnitude Probability (30 year) Takano-Shirahata About 16km About Mj6.8 - Hinagu About 40km About Mj7.5 0~6% Yatsushiro Sea About 30km About Mj7.3 0~16%

17 Scenario earthquake shaking maps for Futagawa fault zone (Mw6.5) (HERP, 2014; Fujiwara et al., 2015) case-1 case-2 Comparison of observation ( ) and simulation (background)

18 Relationship between the distance from the surface earthquake fault and building damage Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level km surface earthquake fault: Shirahama et al. (2016) (%) 100% 90% 80% Damage ratio was calculated for each range of horizontal distance from the surface earthquake fault to the building. 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% (km) LV1 LV2 LV3 LV4 horizontal distance

19 Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station In order to promote the use of the national seismic hazard maps, an engineering application committee (Chairman: Prof. H. Kameda) was established by NIED. Under the committee guidance, we developed an open web system to provide information interactively, and named this system as Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station, J-SHIS. Our products are aimed to meet multi-purpose needs in engineering fields by providing information of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis.

20 Examples of Probability of Exceedance (PE) maps (Left: PE for a given intensity JMA >= 6-Upper or more in 30 years; Right: PGV for a 2% PE in 50 years) Hazard curves and contribution factor at a point of arrow. Examples of Conditional Probability of Exceedance (CPE) for Miura-hanto fault zone. (left): CPE map while IJMA >= 6 Lower; (right): Expected IJMA intensities distribution map. Examples of velocity waveforms and IJMA intensity map of scenario earthquake for Miura-hanto fault zone. Examples of assumed scenario earthquake map for Miura-hanto fault zone, (left): SESM map in terms of IJMA; (right): SESM map in terms of PBV.

21 Examples of surface geology maps. Site amplification factor, Average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30m depth and Engineering geomorphologic classification. Examples of surface geology. Upper: distribution of elevation or depth of engineering bedrock or seismic bedrock. Bottom: velocity structures in the particular mesh area.

22 Web API develop for the J-SHIS promotion In order to promote the utilization of J-SHIS data in interoperable system, development of J-SHIS Web application programming interface (API) has been progressed. Based on the integrated, we have developed a J-SHIS Web API in machine-readable data format to provide powerfully function to promote J-SHIS information. Seismic Hazard Karte Application on Smartphone for Seismic Hazard

23 Disaster-Risk Information Platform (BOSAI-DRIP) 災害危険度メータ _ 自宅の登録家族の登録自宅の耐震評価備蓄登録ファイル編集表示ツールヘルプ緊急地震速報なし台風や豪雨予想危険度 3 大丈夫? なし 災害危険度メータ _ 自宅の登録家族の登録自宅の耐震評価備蓄登録ファイル編集表示ツールヘルプ緊急地震速報なし台風や豪雨予想危険度 3 大丈夫? なし 災害危険度メータ _ 自宅の登録家族の登録自宅の耐震評価備蓄登録ファイル編集表示ツールヘルプ 危険度 3 大丈夫? 緊急地震速報 なし 台風や豪雨予想 なし Geospatial Information History and Record of Disaster Institutions and Services AIU(Japanese ABC) for BOSAI-DRIP A I Interoperability of information Damage Assessment U Universities, Institutes Governments Companies, NPOs Disaster-Risk Management System for Local Community Hazard Map Interoperable Information Environment Clearinghouse for DRI DRMS for I DRMS for LC DRI for Earthquakes DRI for Volcanic Eruptions DRI for Floods DRI for Landslides DRI for Heavy Snow and Ice Disaster-Risk Evaluation System DRMS for I Disaster-Risk Management System for Individual DRMS for LC Utilization of information Advancement of information

24 Preparation for Un-expecting events Thank you for your attention