EB40: Tsunamis; Is the U.S. at Risk

Transcription

1 EB40: Tsunamis; Is the U.S. at Risk Bill Lang, CBCP Business Continuity Program Manager VIRTUAL CARE PROVIDER INC. (VCPI) SIMPLIFYING TECHNOLOGY FOR LONG- TERM CARE

2 Learning Objectives The causes of tsunamis Magnitude of previous tsunamis Tsunami Warning Systems Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Precautions to mitigate the risk

3 The causes of tsunamis Tsunamis AKA seismic sea waves Mistakenly called tidal waves Series of enormous waves created by Earthquake/tectonics Volcanic eruption Landslide Asteroid/meteorite (bolide impact) Pressurized gas deposits (gas hydrates) Sources Local Remote (teletsunami)

4 Magnitude of previous tsunamis Tsunami Magnitude Characterize tsunami strength based on the maximum wave amplitude at the source (Iida, 1963) or an average of amplitudes in the source region (Soloviev and Go, 1974). Tsunami magnitude (m,) is m t =Log 2 *H where H is the maximum height reached in meters

5 Magnitude of previous tsunamis USA historic Region M<1M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Totals Alaska West Coast Hawaii East Coast PR&VI Totals National Geophysical Data Center/USGS Before and after picture of a lighthouse on Unimak Island, Alaska wiped out by the 1946 tsunami generated by a 7.3 magnitude earthquake in the Aleutian Trench 90 miles away. A 100-foot-tall tsunami washed away all but the base of the 100-foot-tall, reinforced concrete building.

6 USA and others Magnitude of previous tsunamis Death Toll Event Location Date $> 250,000 Indian Ocean earthquake with tsunami Indian Ocean , Lisbon earthquake, tsunami, earthquake, fire Portugal, Morocco and United Kingdom (Cornwall) ,000 Messina, Italy earthquake and tsunami Italy ,000 Krakatoa volcano explosion Indonesia ,000 Tokaido-Nankaido Japan ,000 Japan , Arica earthquake Chile ,070 Sanriku Japan ,030 Caused by Mount Unzen, Southwest Kyūshū Japan ,486 Ryukyu Trench ,233 Tokaido-Kashima Japan ,000 Nankaido Japan ,000 Moro Gulf Philippines ,000 Borneo Indonesia ,000 Papua New Guinea ,008 Sanriku Japan ,300 Kuril, Kamchatka Russia ,000 Great Chilean Earthquake Chile, United States (Hawaii), Philippines and Japan ,000 Bristol Channel, possible tsunami United Kingdom ,223 Tonankai Japan Java earthquake Indonesia Okushiri Japan Aleutian Island earthquake United States (Alaska) and (Hawaii) Good Friday Earthquake United States (Alaska) and (Hawaii) Northern Honshu Japan Solomon Islands earthquake Solomon Islands United States (Hawaii) Grand Banks earthquake Placentia Bay Canada (Newfoundland) Nice France 1979

7 Tsunami Warning Systems Roles and responsibilities World wide USA United Nations Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) through the International Tsunami Information Centre (ITIC) USA a founding member of Group of Earth Observers (GEO) leading to the creation of voluntary program Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) NOAA USGS FEMA Governments of States and Territories

8 Tsunami Warning Systems USA monitoring organizations NOAA West Coast and Pacific Tsunami Warning Center (WC/PTWC) Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (ATWC)

9 Tsunami Warning Systems Information tracking NOAA Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART) utilizing Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Seismic sensors feeding real-time data into on-line forecast models Buoys

10 Tsunami Warning Systems Information tracking Coastal tide stations (GLOSS) NOAA National Water Level Observation Network (NWLON) USGS seismic stations Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) Center for Tsunami Inundation Mapping Efforts (TIME) Envirtech Tsunami Warning System NASA GPS land movement detection NASA Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) Sea Height

11 Tsunami Warning Systems Information tracking U.S. Navy's SOund SUrveillance System (SOSUS) NOAA Moored Autonomous Hydrophones (VENTS) ORION Large seismic detection network covering the Juan de Fuca / Explorer / Gorda plates NASA/French Jason and Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry SEASONDE high frequency land based RADAR Pressure-based acoustically coupled tsunami detector (PACT)

12 Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Tectonics threat Huge plates of earth s crust floating on mantle Convergent boundary Very likely to cause tsunami Transform boundary Almost never causes tsunami(?) Divergent boundary Rarely causes tsunami Tsunami conclusions Atlantic very low risk Pacific very high risk Inland very low risk

13 Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Earthquake threat Fueled by tectonics (convergent boundaries) Crustal faults move against each other Strike-slip Almost never causes tsunamis(?) Others Very likely to cause tsunamis Tsunami conclusions Atlantic very low risk Pacific very high risk Inland low risk

14 Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Volcano threat Location on or near water Tsunamis triggered by Quakes Eruptions/landslides/pyroclastic flows Tsunami conclusions Atlantic low risk Pacific high risk Inland Very low risk

15 Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Landslide threat Location bordering water or under water Few hazard analysis programs Tsunamis triggered by Quakes Eruptions Weathering/rain Tsunami conclusions Atlantic low risk Pacific high risk Inland almost no risk Massive collapse of Cumbre Vieja in the Canary Islands caused a tsunami to radiate all the way across the Atlantic Ocean to the East Coast. PHOTOGRAPH BY J. SCHWAKE/ALAMY

16 Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Asteroid/meteorite threat Large >= 1km diameter 943 potentially hazardous asteroids Location in or near water Water covers most of earth Probability high for water impact Tsunamis triggered by Impact/aftershocks Landslides Tsunami conclusions Atlantic very low risk Pacific very low risk Inland very low risk But a very high impact

17 Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Pressurized gas deposits threat (gas hydrates) Location under water Stabilized by cold and pressure Tsunamis triggered by Gas eruptions Water displacement Landslides Quakes Tsunami conclusions Atlantic medium risk Pacific medium risk Inland very low risk

18 Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Special threats Island wrap around Harbor resonance Lakes Tahoe/FDR seismic The Great Lakes and others Seismic seiches Bays Lituya Bay AK landslide Newport OR inundation Rivers New Madrid fault/mississippi Coastal population increase

19 Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Special threats Increased sea levels and geologic activity

20 Area Parts of the USA exposed to the threat Threat summary Magnification factors Increased geologic activity Rising sea levels Increasing coastal populations General threat level Earth quake / tectonics threat Volcanic eruption threat Land Slide threat Meteorite (bolide impact) threat Pressurized gas deposits threat Hawaii High High High Medium Very low Very low Alaska High High Medium Medium Very low Very low West Coast High High Medium Medium Very low Medium East Coast Low Low Medium Medium Very low Medium PR & VI Low Low Medium Medium Very low Low

21 Precautions to mitigate the risk General preparedness Area General threat level Tsunami ready certified counties Hawaii High 4 (all) 2007 Alaska High Washington High Oregon High California High Year of last online plan update East Coast Low s-2000s PR & VI Low

22 Programs Precautions to mitigate the risk 12/2005 National Science and Technology Council TSUNAMI RISK REDUCTION FOR THE UNITED STATES: A FRAMEWORK FOR ACTION recommended continuing: 1995 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) with subcommittees on: Mapping and modeling (assessment) Warning guidance Mitigation

23 Programs Precautions to mitigate the risk National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Steering Committee National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Chair) Department of Homeland Security/Federal Emergency Management Agency (DHS/FEMA) U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Science Foundation (NSF) U.S. coastal states Pacific territories/commonwealths Puerto Rico U.S. Virgin Islands

24 Precautions to mitigate the risk National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Public tsunami warning comments TsunamiReady certification program Community planning and outreach New tsunami building and structural regulations NOAA to expand existing information dissemination systems with: Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN) RAdio and InterNET (RANET) Meteorological/Climate Info

25 Precautions to mitigate the risk What businesses can do Avoid building/residing in tsunami prone areas Consult local EM on evacuation plans Follow the TsunamiReady certification program Investigate new tsunami building and structural regulations for your facilities Build internal education and awareness ml (flood ins)

26 Precautions to mitigate the risk What businesses can do Investigate inundation information to help determine risk Oregon Hawaii Washington California (no USGS inundation maps) practices/fact_sheets/tsunamir4.pdf arthy%20anderson%20tsunami%20pap er.pdf index.php

27 Questions Bill Lang, CBCP Business Continuity Program Manager VIRTUAL CARE PROVIDER INC. (VCPI) 111 West Michigan St. Third Floor Milwaukee, WI V: