The Role of Risk Assessment in Designing MMV Programs

Transcription

1 The Role of Risk Assessment in Designing MMV Programs November 9, 2007 IEA GHG Monitoring Network, Fourth Meeting, Edmonton, Alberta Presenter: Ken Hnottavange-Telleen, Schlumberger Carbon Services, North America

2 Outline 2 1. Identifying Risks: Ranking Systems 2. Performance & Risk Management drives MMV 3. Measurements for Injectivity, Capacity, and Containment 4. Modeling The Central MMV Tool

3 September Sea Ice Extent, year intervals 3 National Snow and Ice Data Center Boulder, CO

4 CO 2 Storage Project Lifecycle CarbonWorkFlow* Process * Mark of Schlumberger

5 Outline 5 Identifying Risks: Ranking Systems Performance & Risk Management drives MMV Measurements for Injectivity, Capacity, and Containment Modeling The Central MMV Tool

6 F. E. P. Data Entry 6 Features Events Processes Wildenborg 2007 by permission

7 Compartments & Conduits 7 Emission Credits & Atmosphere Health, Safety, Environment Underground Source of Drinking Water Hydrocarbon & Mineral Resources CO 2 Source / Storage Reservoir the Certification Framework (CF) project Oldenburg, Bryant, and Nicot, 2007 by permission

8 Polling the Experts 8 ID 2.9 Drilling a dry hole Description Drilling reveals that injectivity is not acceptable where well is planned; project is not viable Timescale Should be indicated during site characterization or well drilling Potentially Involved Parties Preventive Action Mitigation Response Residual Risk Warning Signals Site characterization team, well construction team, operator Careful site selection Drill to new horizon, if still no viable options, plug first well, drill another or move to a new location and drill new well If dry hole not well plugged, could become leakage pathway in the future Core samples, seismic survey and other site characterization tests of porosity and permeability, extent of reservoir Event description Interdependence / Risk Coupling None Expert responses Priority Ranking 2 Mitigation Cost 2 Comments At least at this early stage of the CCS industry, everyone will be careful. There is always residual risk because it is not possible to fully characterize the earth. World Resources Institute 2007 by permission

9 Prioritized sources of hazard 9 Friedmann 2007 by permission

10 Qualitative Risk Prevention & Mitigation Matrix to to to -5-4 to -2-1 BLACK RED YELLOW GREEN BLUE NON-OPERABLE: Evacuate the zone and or area/country INTOLERABLE: Do not take this risk UNDESIRABLE: Demonstrate ALARP before proceeding ACCEPTABLE: Proceed carefully, with continuous improvement NEGLIGIBLE: Safe to proceed PREVENTION Light MITIGATION Control Measures -1 Improbable 1-1 1L Unlikely 2-2 2L Possible 3 LIKELIHOOD -3 3L Likely 4-4 4L Probable 5-5 5L Serious S -4 1S -6 3S -8 4S -10 5S Major Catastrophic -3-4 SEVERITY -3 1M -4 1C -6 2M -8 2C -9 3M -12 3C -12 4M -16 4C -15 5M -20 5C Multi-Catastrophic MC -10 2MC -15 3MC -20 4MC -25 5MC White arrow indicates decreasing risk

11 Outline 11 Identifying Risks: Ranking Systems Performance & Risk Management drives MMV Measurements for Injectivity, Capacity, and Containment Modeling The Central MMV Tool

12 Performance & Risk Management System 12 Performance & Risk Assessment Injectivity Capacity Containment Measurement for Characterization } { FUNCTIONS * STAKES Costs and Credits Environment Health & Safety Image Modeling Project Design Construction Technologies & Interventions Monitoring Measurements

13 Focused Monitoring Deployment 13 Espie 2007 by permission

14 Monitoring Targets and Monitoring Methods 14 Containment Capacity Injectivity x = Method applicable to target Modified after Vu Hoang, Vivalda, and Verliac, 2007

15 Monitoring Selection Tool 15

16 Outline 16 Identifying Risks: Ranking Systems Performance & Risk Management drives MMV Measurements for Injectivity, Capacity, and Containment Modeling The Central MMV Tool

17 Injectivity 17 Permeability Core Logs Formation testers Well tests Injection induced near-wellbore effects Dry-out Salt precipitation Carbonate dissolution The Reservoir Dry-out Simulation near the Wellbore is crucial for Injectivity Prediction Mitigation Injection well design and number Hydraulic fracturing Dry-out Zone CO 2 Reactive Transport Fluid Phases Equilibration Gas Saturation

18 Capacity: Characterization and Monitoring 18 High-Resolution Seismic, VSP s, and Sonic Borehole imagers Formation Evaluation Mineralogy :20 RSOZ 0 DSOZ M Micronormal (HMNO) 20 0 Microinverse (HMIN) Gamma Ray (GR) (GAPI) 200 Caliper 6 (IN) 16 SP -100 (MV) 0 Pad HA LS Im ag e RT 1 (OHMM)100 0 HALS Deep 1 (OHMM)100 Resistivity (HLLD) 0 HALS Shallow 1 (OHMM)10 Resistivity (HLLS) 00 MCFL Rxo (RX18) 1 (OHMM)100 0 Lith olo gy Col or Tra ck High Resolution 1.95 (G/C Density (RHOZ) 3 )2.95 Neutron Porosity 45 (PU) -15 (NPOR) Crossplot Porosity 45 (PU) -15 (PXND) PEF 0 10

19 Capacity: Measurements for CO 2 Saturation 19 X-Well EM Surveys CO 2 Saturation Neutron Capture Logging (Σ) CO 2 Saturation near wellbore CO 2 breakthrough at a monitoring well Frio brine experiment in Texas: Injector well Reservoir 30 m thick CO2 Richphase 75 Ωm Water 4.5 Ωm Monitoring well Interwell Spacing 60 m A priori information improves interpretation Without Boundary Knowledge With Boundary Knowledge 50Ω m 10Ω m 5Ωm Adapted from Luling et al, SPE 5A-55 Sakurai et al, SPWLA

20 Capacity & Containment: Microseismics Microseismicity events are micro-cracks occurring in the formation due to pressure increase Listening to these cracks is a powerful monitoring technique 20 Detection, 3D Location, and Classification of Microseismicity Events Control of Pumping Rate to Avoid Fracturing the Cap Rock Detection of Fault Reactivation

21 Containment: Measurements for Well Integrity 21 Joint analysis of data from these tools: Multi-finger caliper Electromagnetic Ultrasonic Sonic To characterize: Casing corrosion - Internal / external - Corrosion type Cement quality - Bonding at interfaces - Cement properties Near-wellbore formation damage

22 Outline 22 Identifying Risks: Ranking Systems Performance & Risk Management drives MMV Measurements for Injectivity, Capacity, and Containment Modeling The Central MMV Tool 1. Site conceptual model 2. Static geologic-geophysical model 3. Dynamic geophysical model 4. Measurements 5. Do Over

23 Building a Static Model Structure & Properties Geophysics Flow / Transport Seismic Well Correlation Fault Modeling 23 Geology Geomechanics PETREL Petrophysics Mineralogy Petrophysical Modeling Zonation and Layering Model should include overburden Facies Modeling

24 CO 2 Injection Dynamic Modeling 24 Current status: Improved fluid-fluid / fluid-rock interactions Accurate description of mutual solubilities Dry-out / Salting out effect Salt precipitation Coal swelling and shrinkage Upscaling ECLIPSE E300 CO2 Concentration in Water Thermodynamics Geochemistry Thermal Modeling Calibration on monitoring measurements (History match) 3D Full Compositional Flow Simulator Geomechanics Simulator Monitoring Data

25 Injectivity Modeling Near-Wellbore Effects m X H2O Dry-Out radius Salt precipitation profile Refined wellbore radial model for injectivity studies Is Injection possible? Injection rate estimation respecting BHP Critical outputs for Injectivity: - Injection rate - BHP - Salt precipitation profile - Dry-out radius ph 0 6 ph output Pressure profile 0

26 Capacity Volumetrics & Trapping 26 Free CO 2 saturation Dissolved CO 2 Isosurface Capacity estimation - Dissolved CO 2, - Trapped CO 2 (immobile) - Free CO 2 (mobile) Plume Monitoring Hydrodynamic Trapping Flow Gradient impact CO2 trapped in an Anticline Top

27 Containment Reservoir Geomechanics 27 Initial minimum stress σ 3 Coupled simulation Reservoir simulator Update permeability δϕ δ p, δt, δs Reservoi r After injection Mechanical simulator Eclipse-GM (E300) VISAGE - VIP Extensio n

28 RECA P Risk identification and prioritization methods: several ways to slice the universe of risk CO 2 Project Functions: Injectivity, Capacity, Containment Monitoring techniques exist for each function Modeling is key to the V of MMV Ken Hnottavange-Telleen Schlumberger Carbon Services Cambridge, MA kenht@boston.oilfield.slb.com