Appendix C. Round 6.2 Cooperative Forecast Projections Area and Nonroad Inventories and Projections
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1 Appendix C Round 6.2 Cooperative Forecast Projections Area and Nonroad Inventories and Projections
2 Summary of Intermediate Employment Forecasts Round 6.2 Cooperative Forecasts (Thousands) JURISDICTION District of Columbia Arlington County City of Alexandria Central Jurisdictions 1, , , , , ,244.9 Montgomery County (1) Rockville (2) Prince George's County Fairfax County City of Fairfax (3) City of Falls Church Inner Suburbs 1, , , , , , , ,933.5 Loudoun County Prince William County Manassas & Manassas Park Calvert County (4) Charles County (4) Frederick County Stafford County (5) Anne Arundel County (6) Howard County (6) Outer Suburbs (6) Northern Virginia , , , , , ,630.8 Suburban Maryland (6) , , , , , ,418.6 REGIONAL TOTAL (6) 2, , , , , , , ,880.7 (1) Forecasts for years 2000 to 2025 include all of Takoma Park. (2) Included in Montgomery County total. (3) s for all years include Fairfax County Government employees working in the Massey Complex, located within the boundaries of the City of Fairfax. (4) Tri-County Council for Southern Maryland develops ten-year incremental population, housing unit and employment forecasts for Calvert County, Charles County and St. Mary's County. (5) Source: Rappahanock Area Development Commission, November (6) 5-a Forecasts for Anne Arundel and Howard counties are shown for reference purposes only and are not included in any other totals. Anne Arundel and Howard counties participate in the Cooperative Forecasting programs of the Baltimore Metropolitan Council and the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. 26-May-03
3 1990 Area Source Inventory - VOC VOC - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates Tons per day NAA Dist. Of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax LoudounP. WillmStafford VA MD Category ColumbiaCounty County County County County County Alxndria County County County County Tank Truck Unloading (Stage I) gas Submerged gas Submerged/Balanced gas Vehicle Fueling gas Underground Tank Breathing gas Losses Fom Gasoline Tank Tru emp Aircraft Refueling emp Petroleum Vessel Loading and U pop Dry Cleaning emp Surface Cleaning Surface Coatings pop Architectural pop Traffic Markings emp Auto Refinishing emp Industrial Product emp Special Purpose pop Graphic Arts pop Asphalt Paving na Pesticide Application pop Commercial/Consumer Solvent emp Synthetic Organic Chemical Sto emp Barge, Tank, Tank Truck, Rail C pop Bakeries pop Breweries pop Wineries pop Distilleries na Oil Spills hhs Publicly Owned Treatment Wor emp Industrial Wastewater Treatmen empwaste Treatment, Storage & Disp pop Municipal Landfills pop On-Site Incineration na Open Burning pop Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption* pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petro hhs Other Fuels Consumption (Resi pop Small Electric Utility Boilers na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Forest Fires na Agricultural Burning pop Structure Fires na Orchard Heaters na Leaking Underground Storage T emp Commercial Airports pop General Aviation Airports na Military Airports emp Railroad Locomotives Area Source Area Dist. of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax Loudoun Pr. Will Stafford VA MD Growth Rates, Round 6.2 Columbia County County County County County County AlxndriaCounty County County County Emp Pop Households Gas Area Source Inventory - VOC - UNCONTROLLED VOC - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates, Round Base and 2005 Area Emission Inventory Area2002VOC-bump up_airports.xls; 6/3/03
4 Tons per day NAA Dist. Of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax LoudounP. WillmStafford VA MD Category ColumbiaCounty County County County County County Alxndria County County County County Tank Truck Unloading (Stage I) gas Submerged gas Submerged/Balanced gas Vehicle Fueling gas Underground Tank Breathing gas Losses Fom Gasoline Tank Tru emp Aircraft Refueling emp Petroleum Vessel Loading and U pop Dry Cleaning emp Surface Cleaning Surface Coatings pop Architectural pop Traffic Markings emp Auto Refinishing emp Industrial Product emp Special Purpose pop Graphic Arts Graphic Arts - Lithography Graphic Arts - Flexographic Graphic Arts - Rotogravure pop Asphalt Paving na Pesticide Application pop Commercial/Consumer Solvent emp Synthetic Organic Chemical Sto emp Barge, Tank, Tank Truck, Rail C pop Bakeries pop Breweries pop Wineries pop Distilleries na Oil Spills hhs Publicly Owned Treatment Wor emp Industrial Wastewater Treatmen empwaste Treatment, Storage & Disp pop Municipal Landfills pop On-Site Incineration na Open Burning pop Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption* pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petro hhs Other Fuels Consumption (Resi pop Small Electric Utility Boilers na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Forest Fires na Agricultural Burning pop Structure Fires na Orchard Heaters na Leaking Underground Storage T emp Commercial Airports pop General Aviation Airports na Military Airports emp Railroad Locomotives Area Source Uncontrolled 2002 Area Source Inventory - CONTROLLED VOC - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates, Round 6.2 tons per day NAA Dist. Of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax LoudounP. Willm Stafford VA MD Category ColumbiaCounty County County County County County Alxndria County County County County Tank Truck Unloading (Stage I) 1990 Base and 2005 Area Emission Inventory Area2002VOC-bump up_airports.xls; 6/3/03
5 gas Submerged gas Submerged/Balanced gas Vehicle Fueling gas Underground Tank Breathing gas Losses Fom Gasoline Tank Tru emp Aircraft Refueling emp Petroleum Vessel Loading and U pop Dry Cleaning emp Surface Cleaning Surface Coatings pop Architectural pop Traffic Markings emp Auto Refinishing emp Industrial Product emp Special Purpose Graphic Arts pop Graphic Arts - Lithography (64%) pop Graphic Arts - Flexographic (16% pop Graphic Arts - Rotogravure (16% pop Asphalt Paving na Pesticide Application pop Commercial/Consumer Solvent emp Synthetic Organic Chemical Sto emp Barge, Tank, Tank Truck, Rail C pop Bakeries pop Breweries pop Wineries pop Distilleries na Oil Spills hhs Publicly Owned Treatment Wor emp Industrial Wastewater Treatmen emp Hazardous Waste Treatment, S pop Municipal Landfills pop On-Site Incineration na Open Burning pop Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption* pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petro hhs Other Fuels Consumption (Resi pop Small Electric Utility Boilers na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Forest Fires na Agricultural Burning pop Structure Fires na Orchard Heaters na Leaking Underground Storage T emp Commercial Airports pop General Aviation Airports na Military Airports emp Railroad Locomotives Area Source Controlled 2002 Reduction Factors: Stage II Vapor Recovery 0.65 Weighted average of reduction factors obtained in MOBILE6. 70% control efficiency in MD, 77% in VA Gasoline Volatility Controls 0.11 Weighted average of reduction factors obtained in MOBILE6. MD-Surface Cleaning/Degreasing Tec 0.59 (67% reduction from technology rules and from good housekeeping practices; 0.8 remaining after reformulatio DC & VA -Surface Cleaning/Degreasi 0.32 [0.8*(Measure1: 0.1*0.8 + Measure2: 1.0*0.4*0.8) ]?? Landfills - MD & VA 0.63 (98% reduction factor * 80% capture efficiency * 80% rule effectiveness factor) Seasonal Open Burning Restrictions 0.80 (100% ban * 80% rule compliance factor) Seasonal Open Burning Restrictions 0.97 (100% ban * 96.8% rule compliance factor based on MARAMA report) Stage I Vapor Recovery Expansion (90% reduction factor * 91% rule effectiveness, applied in Frederick, Charles, and Calvert Counties) Stage I Vapor Recovery Expansion (90% reduction factor * 80% rule effectiveness, applied in Stafford and Loudoun Counties) Graphic Arts Controls - VA and DC 0.38 (75% reduction factor * 80% rule effectiveness * 64% Penetration) 1990 Base and 2005 Area Emission Inventory Area2002VOC-bump up_airports.xls; 6/3/03
6 Graphic Arts Controls MD-Lithograph 0.60 (75% reduction factor * 80% rule effectiveness * 64% Penetration) Graphic Arts Controls MD-Flexograph 0.43 (60% reduction factor * 90% emissions from ink solvent evaportion * 80% rule effectiveness * 18% Penetration) Graphic Arts Controls MD-Rotogravur 0.50 (70% reduction factor * 90% emissions from ink solvent evaportion * 80% rule effectiveness * 18% Penetration) Autobody Refinishing - MD 0.60 Autobody Refinishing - VA, DC 0.36 Architectural and Industrial Coatings 0.20 (National Standards for Achitectural coatings - 20% reduction) Consumer and Commercial Products 0.10 (National Standards for Consumer/Commercial solvents - 20% reduction on % Penetration lbs/person su Locomotives 0.03 (Locomotives New standards - 3.3% reduction) CHECK: Category UncontrolControlled Delta Tank Truck Unloading (Stage I) gas Submerged gas Submerged/Balanced gas Vehicle Fueling gas Underground Tank Breathing gas Losses Fom Gasoline Tank Tru emp Aircraft Refueling emp Petroleum Vessel Loading and U pop Dry Cleaning emp Surface Cleaning Surface Coating pop Architectural pop Traffic Markings emp Auto Refinishing emp Industrial Product emp Special Purpose pop Graphic Arts pop Asphalt Paving na Pesticide Application pop Commercial/Consumer Solvent emp Synthetic Organic Chemical Sto emp Barge, Tank, Tank Truck, Rail C pop Bakeries pop Breweries pop Wineries pop Distilleries na Oil Spills hhs Publicly Owned Treatment Wor emp Industrial Wastewater Treatmen emp Hazardous Waste Treatment, S pop Municipal Landfills pop On-Site Incineration na Open Burning pop Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption* pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petro hhs Other Fuels Consumption (Resi pop Small Electric Utility Boilers na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Forest Fires na Agricultural Burning pop Structure Fires na Orchard Heaters na Leaking Underground Storage T emp Commercial Airports pop General Aviation Airports na Military Airports emp Railroad Locomotives Area Source -VOC UncontrolleControlled Delta 1990 Base and 2005 Area Emission Inventory Area2002VOC-bump up_airports.xls; 6/3/03
7 1990 Area Source Inventory - NOx NOx - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates Tons per Day NAA Dist. Of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax Loudoun P. Willm Stafford VA MD Category Columbia County County County County County County Alxndria County County County County On-Site Incineration Open Burning Fuel Oil Consumption Coal Consumption Natural Gas and Liquified Petroleum Gas Consumption Forest Fires Slash/Prescribed Burning Structure Fires Commercial Airports General Aviation Airports Military Airports Railroad Locomotives NOx 2002 Area Source Inventory - NO CONTROLS NOx - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates, Round 6.2 Tons per Day NAA Dist. Of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax Loudoun P. Willm Stafford VA MD Category Columbia County County County County County County Alxndria County County County County On-Site Incineration pop Open Burning na Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petroleum Gas Consumption pop Forest Fires na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Structure Fires pop Commercial Airports emp General Aviation Airports pop Military Airports na Railroad Locomotives emp Area Dist. of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax Loudoun Pr. Will Stafford VA MD Growth Rates Columbia County County County County County County Alxndria County County County County Round 6.2 Emp Pop Control measures Seasonal Open Burning Restrictions - VA (100% ban * 80% rule compliance factor) Seasonal Open Burning Restrictions - MD (100% ban * 96.8% rule compliance factor based on MARAMA report) Locomotive Emissions Reduction Factor (New Standards would reduce NOx 27.8% by year 2005) NOx 2002 Area Source Inventory - WITH CONTROLS NOx - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates, Round 6.2 Tons per Day NAA Dist. Of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax Loudoun P. Willm Stafford VA MD Category Columbia County County County County County County Alxndria County County County County On-Site Incineration pop Open Burning na Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petroleum Gas Consumption pop Forest Fires na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Structure Fires pop Commercial Airports emp General Aviation Airports pop Military Airports na Railroad Locomotives emp With CONTROLS Check NOx Category UncontroControlled Delta On-Site Incineration Open Burning Fuel Oil Consumption Coal Consumption Natural Gas and Liquified Petroleum Gas Consumption Forest Fires Slash/Prescribed Burning Structure Fires Commercial Airports General Aviation Airports Military Airports Railroad Locomotives /3/03 Area2002NOx-bump up_airports.xls
8 1990 Area Source Inventory - VOC VOC - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates Tons per day NAA Dist. Of Calvert CharlesFredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of FairfaxLoudounP. WillmStafford VA MD Category ColumbiaCounty County County County County County Alxndria County County County County Tank Truck Unloading (Stage I) gas Submerged gas Submerged/Balanced gas Vehicle Fueling gas Underground Tank Breathing gas Losses Fom Gasoline Tank Truck emp Aircraft Refueling emp Petroleum Vessel Loading and U pop Dry Cleaning emp Surface Cleaning Surface Coatings pop Architectural pop Traffic Markings emp Auto Refinishing emp Industrial Product emp Special Purpose pop Graphic Arts pop Asphalt Paving na Pesticide Application pop Commercial/Consumer Solvent U emp Synthetic Organic Chemical Stora emp Barge, Tank, Tank Truck, Rail Ca pop Bakeries pop Breweries pop Wineries pop Distilleries na Oil Spills hhs Publicly Owned Treatment Works emp Industrial Wastewater Treatment empwaste Treatment, Storage & Dispo pop Municipal Landfills pop On-Site Incineration na Open Burning pop Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption* pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petrole hhs Other Fuels Consumption (Resid pop Small Electric Utility Boilers na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Forest Fires na Agricultural Burning pop Structure Fires na Orchard Heaters na Leaking Underground Storage Ta emp Commercial Airports pop General Aviation Airports na Military Airports emp Railroad Locomotives Area Source ##### Area Dist. of Calvert Charles Fredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax Loudoun Pr. Will Stafford VA MD Growth Rates, Round 6.2 Columbia County County County CountyCounty County AlxndriaCounty County County County Emp Pop Households Gas Area Source Inventory - VOC - UNCONTROLLED 1990 Base and 2005 Area Emission Inventory Area2005VOC-bump up_airports.xls; 6/3/03
9 VOC - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates, Round 6.2 Tons per day NAA Dist. Of Calvert CharlesFredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of FairfaxLoudounP. WillmStafford VA MD Category ColumbiaCounty County County County County County Alxndria County County County County Tank Truck Unloading (Stage I) gas Submerged gas Submerged/Balanced gas Vehicle Fueling gas Underground Tank Breathing gas Losses Fom Gasoline Tank Truck emp Aircraft Refueling emp Petroleum Vessel Loading and U pop Dry Cleaning emp Surface Cleaning Surface Coatings pop Architectural pop Traffic Markings emp Auto Refinishing emp Industrial Product emp Special Purpose pop Graphic Arts Graphic Arts - Lithography Graphic Arts - Flexographic Graphic Arts - Rotogravure pop Asphalt Paving na Pesticide Application pop Commercial/Consumer Solvent U emp Synthetic Organic Chemical Stora emp Barge, Tank, Tank Truck, Rail Ca pop Bakeries pop Breweries pop Wineries pop Distilleries na Oil Spills hhs Publicly Owned Treatment Works emp Industrial Wastewater Treatment empwaste Treatment, Storage & Dispo pop Municipal Landfills pop On-Site Incineration na Open Burning pop Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption* pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petrole hhs Other Fuels Consumption (Resid pop Small Electric Utility Boilers na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Forest Fires na Agricultural Burning pop Structure Fires na Orchard Heaters na Leaking Underground Storage Ta emp Commercial Airports pop General Aviation Airports na Military Airports emp Railroad Locomotives Area Source ##### ###### Uncontrolled 2005 Area Source Inventory - CONTROLLED VOC - Ozone Nonattainment Area Jurisdictional Estimates, Round 6.2 tons per day NAA Dist. Of Calvert CharlesFredrck Montg P.G. Arlington City of Fairfax LoudounP. Willm Stafford VA MD Category ColumbiaCounty County County County County County Alxndria County County County County 1990 Base and 2005 Area Emission Inventory Area2005VOC-bump up_airports.xls; 6/3/03
10 Tank Truck Unloading (Stage I) gas Submerged gas Submerged/Balanced gas Vehicle Fueling gas Underground Tank Breathing gas Losses Fom Gasoline Tank Truck emp Aircraft Refueling emp Petroleum Vessel Loading and U pop Dry Cleaning emp Surface Cleaning Surface Coatings pop Architectural pop Traffic Markings emp Auto Refinishing emp Industrial Product emp Special Purpose Graphic Arts pop Graphic Arts - Lithography (64%) pop Graphic Arts - Flexographic (16%) pop Graphic Arts - Rotogravure (16%) pop Asphalt Paving na Pesticide Application pop Commercial/Consumer Solvent U emp Synthetic Organic Chemical Stora emp Barge, Tank, Tank Truck, Rail Ca pop Bakeries pop Breweries pop Wineries pop Distilleries na Oil Spills hhs Publicly Owned Treatment Works emp Industrial Wastewater Treatment emp Hazardous Waste Treatment, Sto pop Municipal Landfills pop On-Site Incineration na Open Burning pop Fuel Oil Consumption pop Coal Consumption* pop Natural Gas and Liquified Petrole hhs Other Fuels Consumption (Resid pop Small Electric Utility Boilers na Slash/Prescribed Burning na Forest Fires na Agricultural Burning pop Structure Fires na Orchard Heaters na Leaking Underground Storage Ta emp Commercial Airports pop General Aviation Airports na Military Airports emp Railroad Locomotives Area Source ##### Controlled 2005 Reduction Factors: Stage II Vapor Recovery 0.63 Weighted average of reduction factors obtained in MOBILE6. 70% control efficiency in MD, 77% in VA Gasoline Volatility Controls 0.09 MD-Surface Cleaning/Degreasing Tech 0.59 (67% reduction from technology rules and from good housekeeping practices; 0.8 remaining after reformul DC & VA -Surface Cleaning/Degreasin 0.32 [0.8*(Measure1: 0.1*0.8 + Measure2: 1.0*0.4*0.8) ]?? Landfills - MD & VA 0.63 (98% reduction factor * 80% capture efficiency * 80% rule effectiveness factor) Seasonal Open Burning Restrictions (100% ban * 80% rule compliance factor) Seasonal Open Burning Restrictions (100% ban * 96.8% rule compliance factor based on MARAMA report) Stage I Vapor Recovery Expansion - M 0.82 (90% reduction factor * 91% rule effectiveness, applied in Frederick, Charles, and Calvert Counties) Stage I Vapor Recovery Expansion - V 0.72 (90% reduction factor * 80% rule effectiveness, applied in Stafford and Loudoun Counties) 1990 Base and 2005 Area Emission Inventory Area2005VOC-bump up_airports.xls; 6/3/03
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