Brahmatwinn Twinning European and South Asian River Basins to enhance capacity and implement adaptive management approaches

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Brahmatwinn Twinning European and South Asian River Basins to enhance capacity and implement adaptive management approaches"

Victor Cooper
6 years ago
Views:

adaptive management approaches WP 3 Assessment

20-22, 2008 6th EU Framework Programme Priority:

1 Brahmatwinn Twinning European and South Asian River Basins to enhance capacity and implement adaptive management approaches WP 3 Assessment of the Natural Environment Stefan Lang, Z_GIS (Centre for Geoinformatics, U Salzburg) BRAHMATWINN 2 nd Annual Meeting in Munich, Oct 20-22, th EU Framework Programme Priority: Global Change and Ecosystems Contract: No Launch:

2 WP 3 Assessment of the NE Objectives to assess, classify and quantify the components of the natural environment (NE) including topography, climate, hydrology, snow and glacier cover, permafrost and slope stability, land use and land cover, soils and geology, sediments and erosion, (ground-)water quality, eco-hydrology and biodiversity

3 WP 3 Rationale Terrain classification Land use / land cover Glacier change and permafrost distribution Hydrology, wetlands, groundwater HRUs RBIS documentation

4 WP 3 Work Tasks & Deliverables [lead contractor] (month of completion) WT_3.1 / Dl_3.1 SRTM-based terrain classification according to IPPC recommendations and digital terrain models (DTM) for the UDRB and UBRB [FSU] (14) WT_3.2 / Dl_3.2 Analysis of historical glacier and snow distribution with change detection analyses [UniOs] (14) WT_3.3 / Dl_3.3 Terrain based permafrost distribution and vulnerability analyses of slope stability [ITP] (14) WT_3.4 / Dl_3.4 IPCC based classification of land use and land cover (LULC) with change detection analysis [Z_GIS] (14) WT_3.5 / Dl_3.5 Assessments of wetlands, their functions and groundwater recharge [UniVie] (18) WT_3.6 / Dl_3.6 Hydrological systems analysis and delineation of Hydrological Response Units [FSU] (18) WT_3.7 / Dl_3.7 Documented results for reporting and RBIS population [Z_GIS] (18)

5 Achievements Overview The components of the Natural Environment (NE) in the Upper Brahmaputra and Upper Danube River Basins as well as those of 5 reference catchments have been established in spatial layers. These comprise: Digital surface models at 1 km resolution for the basins and 90 m for the reference catchments. Terrain parameters (e.g. aspect, slope, profile curvature, solar radiation index) are available for all areas. Historical glacier and snow distribution are compiled for the headwater regions of the two basins and the decadal changes up to 2006 been assessed. Terrain based permafrost distribution was modelled and validated by station records and/or presence of rock glaciers. Harmonised land use and land cover data are available for all areas. Fine-scaled classifications have been carried out for specific assessments of wetlands as well as change detection studies conducted to evaluate the impact of bank erosion in Assam. Wetlands, their location and functions in respect to ecosystem services, have been assessed for all areas. Groundwater availability has been compiled for Assam. Hydrological response units (HRU) have been established from the above data layers to reflect the hydrological dynamics of the basins. The River Basin Information System has been populated with these spatial data layers.

6 WT / DL 3-1 Terrain Classification Achievements for UBRB and UDRB DSMs at 1 km resolution for the basins and 90 m for the reference catchments Terrain parameters (e.g. aspect, slope, profile curvature, solar radiation index) for all areas Remaining challenges Task completed, but ever improvable (SRTM 4...)

7 WT / DL 3-1 Terrain Classification for UBRB and UDRB Significance of task: Terrain and surface information (i.e. Morphology) is a key layer for hydrological analysis Work performed DSM derived from Shuttle-Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), resolution of 90 x 90 m Voids filled by ASTER data derived DEM For the river basin level DSMs were re-sampled from a 90m to 1kmraster, and clipped to the basins boundaries. In the reference catchments, 90m DSMs served to represent were used For providing adequate data for modeling, sinks in the DSM were filled where required DSM classified according to morphometric and hydrological criteria required to delineate HRUs as well as to model parameters such as permafrost distribution and slope instability (see subsequent WTs)

8 WT / DL 3-1 Terrain Classification for UBRB and UDRB DSM (1 x 1 km) UBRB UDRB

9 WT / DL 3-1 Terrain Classification for UBRB and UDRB DSM (90 x 90 m) Wang Chu Lhasa river Assam AOI Salzach Lech

10 WT / DL 3-1 Terrain Classification for UBRB and UDRB Slope Profile curvature Aspect Morphometric derivatives Solar radiation index

11 WT / DL 3-2 Historical Glacier and Achievements Snow Distribution Historical glacier and snow distribution are compiled for the headwater regions of the two basins Decadal changes up to 2006 were assessed Remaining challenges (3-2 and 3-3) Proposal of WP3 work extension from UniOs Not finished glacier and permafrost scenarios, because climate scenarios from WP2 still missing (available soon), slope vulnerability will be analysed using glacier and permafrost change data estimated for the climate scenarios as soon as they are available Not finished repeated glacier lake mapping (so far done on Landsat imagery). Corona data available since spring Aims to include in the overall UBRB results finding from a diploma thesis from FSU (co-supervised by UniOs) Satellite scene from Thailand not arrived, though ordered in spring. Alternatives looked at.

12 WT / DL 3-2 Historical Glacier and Snow Distribution Significance of task: Run-off characteristics in glacierized river basins significantly depend on glacier distribution, glacier area and mass changes Work performed Using optical remote sensing data, starting from the 1970s (mainly Landsat, supplemented by ASTER), to classify the historical spatial distribution of glaciers together with their mass loss dynamics. Existing glacier inventories and the digital elevation model (DEM) were used validated by station time series provided by local partners. glacier change detection was carried out by means of GIS analysis to classify the spatial distribution of glacier retreat Glacier inventories of the year 2000 have been compiled for three test regions of the UBRB and checked against the Chinese Glacier Inventory from the 1960s. Manual control and selection of all glaciers for the comparison of 1960s-2000 has been carried out. Derivation of area changes and description of glacier characteristics for the UBRB are available. For the UDRB test area glacier change detection has been analysed especially for the Salzach catchment test site. Change detection for the years 1969 and 1998 based on existing glacier inventories

13 WT / DL 3-2 Historical Glacier and Snow Distribution Significance of task: Run-off characteristics in glacierized river basins significantly depend on glacier distribution, glacier area and mass changes Work performed cont. Glacier mass changes obtained from monitoring stations and published research are used together with the digital elevation model to estimate the glacier run-off contribution for the discharge flow component analyses to be carried out in WP_7. Glacier volume changes have been modelled based on above glacier area changes for the UBRB. Comparison to existing glacier mass balance measurements in the Tien Shan was conducted Snow cover change detection has been analysed for the UBRB and UDRB based on MODIS satellite data (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-Radiometer on the Terra Platform Satellite scenes identified for for the months April and October. Three models: Difference between successive years, difference to mean, and percentage mean. Static and animated results available Snow and glacier water content obtained from monitoring stations and published research is applied together with the DEM to estimate melt volumina delivered to the discharge flow component analyses to carried out in WP_7

WT / DL 3-2 Historical Glacier and Snow Distribution Glacier change in the NW Himalayas Example for changes 1960s (Chinese Glacier Inventory CGI) - 2000 (Landsat); Green

14 WT / DL 3-2 Historical Glacier and Snow Distribution Glacier change in the NW Himalayas Example for changes 1960s (Chinese Glacier Inventory CGI) (Landsat); Green lines: CGI, yellow: interpretation from satellite imagery. Lower left: % glacier change in different glacier size classes. Right: Numbers of glaciers in these size classes

15 WT / DL 3-2 Historical Glacier and Snow Distribution Decadal glacier area changes in the UBRB

WT / DL 3-2 Historical Glacier and Snow Distribution Snow Cover Range April 2000-2006 in the

16 WT / DL 3-2 Historical Glacier and Snow Distribution Snow Cover Range April in the UBRB resolution: 5km * 5km) using MODIS/Terra Snow Cover 8-Day L3 Global 0.05Deg CMG, Version 4

17 WT / DL 3-3 Permafrost Distribution Achievements and Slope (In-)Stability Terrain based permafrost distribution was modelled and validated by station records and/or presence of rock glaciers (UBRB) Remaining challenges (see 3.2)

18 WT / DL 3-3 Permafrost Distribution and Slope (In-)Stability Significance of task: Changes in mountain permafrost distribution, i.e. the loss of perennial ground ice, can be an important driver for changes in slope stability and sediment fluxes Work performed By means of models developed by the UniOs for the Alps the permafrost distribution is calculated and validated using ground based station measurements The meteorological station data were necessary to calibrate the permafrost models The permafrost distribution was modelled for the UBRB/UDRB and validated using a second, physical-based, permafrost model and a rock-glacier inventory in a test site. By downscaled temperature simulations obtained from Dl_2 likely permafrost retreat was modelled and areas vulnerable to slope instabilities were delineated Using an existing inventory for a test region in Bhutan, rock-glaciers are found at the lower boundary of modelled permafrost distribution Lowland-permafrost distribution is estimated by models developed in Tibet. As a rule-of-thumb for mountain permafrost (PF) in the UBRB one can assume for south-slopes: PF above 5400 m asl., north-slopes: PF above m asl

19 WT / DL 3-3 Permafrost Distribution and Slope (In-)Stability Estimate of permafrost distribution in the Lhasa River catchment

WT / DL 3-3 Permafrost Distribution and Slope (In-)Stability Estimation of potential permafrost areas Upper Salzach Catchment based on mean annual air temperature measurements over Salzburg

20 WT / DL 3-3 Permafrost Distribution and Slope (In-)Stability Estimation of potential permafrost areas Upper Salzach Catchment based on mean annual air temperature measurements over Salzburg Regression analysis of annual air temperature means of Salzburg ( ) y = x R 2 = temperature [1/10 C] altitude [m]

21 WT / DL 3-3 Permafrost Distribution and Slope (In-)Stability

22 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Achievements Classification & Changes Harmonised land use and land cover data are available for all areas. Fine-scaled classifications have been carried out for specific assessments of wetlands Change detection studies conducted to evaluate the impact of bank erosion in Assam, and Lhasa river catchment Remaining challenges Full coverage change analysis not available for all test sites

23 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Significance of task: Land use and land cover reflect as an integrated indicators on current (biophysical and socio-economic) response to climatic conditions. are one of the critical geospatial information layers to be used in HRU delineation. Work performed For compatibility reasons the classification was carried out according to the IPCC (2003) guideline which uses six land use and cover classes A harmonized classification scheme was developed by an LULC working group established in month 6 of the project comprising key experts for imagery classification from the consortium. The classification scheme is adaptive and hierarchical, where different levels are defined by the underlying data type, the availability of external knowledge and ground truthing. Level 1 and level 2 comprise 8 main classes and 22 subclasses. To be derived from satellite imagery and additional, auxiliary data (like DSM derivatives). Level 3 and level 4 require additional external knowledge, either form experts or from field surveys. Level 3 contains structurally defined sub-classes (e.g. dense vs. sparse forest), whereas level 4 reflects specific land use types (e.g. irrigated vs. inundated). Level 5, finally, the species level requires very high spatial resolution data and field verifications

24 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Significance of task: Land use and land cover reflect as an integrated indicators on current (biophysical and socio-economic) response to climatic conditions. are one of the critical geospatial information layers to be used in HRU delineation. Work performed cont. Classifications in the UBRB catchment (especially those areas heavily influenced by shadow effects, mainly occurring in the Wang Chu catchment and the Lhasa catchment) have been improved by ground-truthing missions carried out by ICIMOD in Oct/Nov Verification has been based on a collection of 285 GPS measured ground reference points in Lhasa and 112 reference points in Bhutan, respectively Change analysis was performed in areas along the Brahmaputra in Guwahati floodplain, Assam (focus: bank erosion) and Lhasa catchment (focus: change in arable land) based on a comparison between the Landsat ETM mosaic of 2000 and the Landsat TM mosaic of 1990

25 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Hierarchical BRAHMATWINN LULC Scheme

26 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes

27 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Open water, ice and snow decision tree for classification

28 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Urban settlements were delineated using image a thematic layer using Definiens software

29 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes

30 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes LULC classifications Salzach Landsat-TM datasets with complete coverage available from the year 2000 (+/- 1 year)

31 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes LULC classifications Wang Chu Assam AOI Lhasa river Lech

WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Change Analyses Assam

1990 (in km 2 ) Area 2000 (in km 2 ) Overlappi ng Areas (in km 2 ) Agreeemen t (in

732,84 71,7 rock and debris/soil rock and debris/soil 2.253,63 4148,94 1.

32 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Change Analyses Assam LOI: Course of Brahmaputra 1999 (left) and 2000 (right) Assam_1990 Assam_2000 Area 1990 (in km 2 ) Area 2000 (in km 2 ) Overlappi ng Areas (in km 2 ) Agreeemen t (in %) arable land arable land , , ,84 71,7 rock and debris/soil rock and debris/soil 2.253, , ,29 54,1 water courses water courses 2.885, ,73 591,09 20,5 forest Deciduous/ coniferous , , ,68 70,5

33 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Change Analyses 1990 Alpine Grassland Arable Land Bare Ground Bushland/Shrubland Built Up Area Forest Grassland Ice, Snow, Open Water Shadow, Clouds Wetlands 2000 Lhasa river: Change between 1990 and 2000

Alpine Grassland Bushland, Shrubland to Shadow Grassland to Alpine Grassland Grassland to

34 WT / DL 3-4 Land Use / Land Cover Classification & Changes Change Analyses Lhasa river between 1990 and 2000 Background Alpine Grassland to Grassland Bushland, Shrubland to Alpine Grassland Bushland, Shrubland to Shadow Grassland to Alpine Grassland Grassland to Bushland, Shrubland Ice, Snow, Open Water to Alpine Grassland Ice, Snow, Open Water to Bare Ground

35 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Achievements Groundwater Recharge Wetlands, their location and functions in respect to ecosystem services, have been assessed for all areas. Groundwater availability has been compiled for Assam. Remaining challenges The assessment of groundwater resources needs still to be carried out for 4 of the reference catchments.

36 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge Significance of task: Both twinning basins have extensive wetlands areas in the alpine mountain headwaters as well as in flood plains along its course. Most of them are unique in their biodiversity and at the same time strongly dependant on the hydrological dynamics of the river system. Climate change will influence the ecosystem services of these wetlands and eco-hydrological strategies can help to develop measures which allow rehabilitation and protection of these landscape features. Work performed Wetlands functions in terms of flood retention, purification of flood water (sinks for sediments and nutrients, etc.) and groundwater recharge have been assessed. The spatial extent of the river-scape was delineated by wetland-polygons from pre-existing data and wetlands-, water bodies-, and water course-polygons extracted from the LULC-classification The Assam part of the Brahmaputra catchment is characterized by three terrestrial eco-regions within the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests biome, of which the Brahmaputra Valley semi evergreen forest eco-region has the highest proportion within the river corridor. The river-scape in the Assam river valley provides low Ecosystem Services in contrast to the slopes and hills, due to the fact that lower elevations showed higher proportions of arable land and build up areas. These LULC-classes are the main driving forces for pollution. Natural environment and ecosystem services information are relevant for the further processing by the social science groups, providing indicators to be linked with socio-economic models

37 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge Significance of task: Groundwater resources have been assessed in regard to availablity, recharge and use. In order to study groundwater availability, one has to consider the different sources of recharge. Work performed cont. For Assam, the river Brahmaputra and its tributaries are the main source of ground water recharge, as the flood plains in the vicinity of the rivers act as repositories for groundwater. To meet the additional demand during non-monsoon periods, groundwater can be withdrawn from the flood plains. (The exploited aquifer zones would then be recharged during the subsequent monsoon period through flood water. ) Aquifers near the surface are subject to annual recharge from precipitation, but the rate of recharge is affected by human interference. Deep aquifers, on the other hand, occur below layers of sedimentary rocks or in fault zones of the crystaline basement away from surface polution sources but are only recharged over long periods According to government sources in Assam, the annual groundwater draft in the State corresponds to 5.44 billion cubic metres, from which 89% are used for irrigation and remainder for domestic and industrial consumption

38 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge Ecoregions Eco-regions describe similar ecosystem-complexes within its biomes; black boundaries mark the reference catchments within the UBRB

39 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge Wetland classes

WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge Forcing Index SUM: overall index for the river-scape; Components: index for each component.

40 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge Forcing Index SUM: overall index for the river-scape; Components: index for each component. Kaziranga National Park. (right): example of an ecosystem with good self-regulation potential (high index values); grassland corresponds approx. to the boundary of the national park.

41 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge

42 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge Groundwater availability in Assam Figures are given per district in km³/yr (source CGWB, Assam); please note that large symbols indicate low availability.

43 WT / DL 3-5 Assessments of Wetlands, Groundwater Recharge

44 WT / DL 3-6 Hydrological Systems Achievements Analysis and HRUs Hydrological response units (HRU) have been established from the above data layers to reflect the hydrological dynamics of the basins Remaining challenges No specific challenges identified.

45 WT / DL 3-6 Hydrological Systems Analysis and HRUs Significance of task: The hydrological system description is carried out by statistical analysis of the climate and runoff regime in the river basins. It ultimately yields quantified physical system status parameters controlling the hydrological dynamics of the basins. Work performed Hydrological Response Units (HRU) were delineated at 1 km resolution for the UDRB and the UBRB and enhanced HRUs (90 m resolution) for all test catchments. This was done using a knowledge based reclassification, overlay and elimination approach. Based on the quantified analyses of the hydrological dynamics and the quality of the GIS input data the criteria catalogue of the HRU regionalisation concept has been adapted to a cognition network for the UDRB and the UBRB.

46 WT / DL 3-6 Hydrological Systems Analysis and HRUs Hydrological Response Units for the Wang Chu

47 WT / DL 3-6 Hydrological Systems Analysis and HRUs Delineation of HRUs for gauged sub-basins

48 WT / DL 3-7 RBIS Population Achievements Data layers and accompanying meta-data were prepared for integration into the River Basin Information System (RBIS). Analysis reports and special references are published on the BrahmaWiki Remaining challenges Verify list of required data sets on RBIS (Excel table).

WT / DL 3-7 WP Status Report to be compiled based on 2 nd annual WP report UniOs would like to extend work Which indicators to pass over to WP 6? How integrative are HRUs?

49 WT / DL 3-7 WP Status Report to be compiled based on 2 nd annual WP report UniOs would like to extend work Which indicators to pass over to WP 6? How integrative are HRUs? (especially terrain + LULC) Lead Partner P_4 (ZGIS) and P_14 (ITP) Partner No. involved Person-months (PM) spent Person-month (PM) budgeted (9) 4 (6) (4) 10 (12) P_1 FSU, P_2 LMU, P_3 ETH, P_4 Z_GIS, P_5 UniVie, P_8 UniOs, P_12 ICIMOD, P_13 UniBu, P14 ITP, P_15 CARR, P_16 GDS, P_18 Vodni, P_19 JWG, P_20 IITR

GOCE Project acronym: Dl_3. Natural. the. December December Month. Actual submission

GOCE Project acronym: Dl_3. Natural. the. December December Month. Actual submission Project no: Project acronym: Instrument: Thematic Priority: GOCE 036952 BRAHMATWINN Specific Targeted Research Project Global Change and Ecosystems Project title: Twinning European and South Asian River