C-Change Working Paper: Grande Riviere, Trinidad and Tobago: The Vulnerability of a Coastal Community to Sea-level Rise

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1 C-Change Working Paper: Grande Riviere, Trinidad and Tobago: The Vulnerability of a Coastal Community to Sea-level Rise by Sandra Sookram Fellow, Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social & Economic Studies The University of The West Indies, St. Augustine Campus, Trinidad and Tobago sandra.sookram@sta.uwi.edu and Michael Sutherland Lecturer, Department of Geomatics Engineering and Land Management The University of The West Indies, St. Augustine Campus Trinidad and Tobago michael.sutherland@sta.uwi.edu C-Change Working Paper March 2011 Published by the C-Change Secretariat (Canada) Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa C-Change ICURA Working Paper Series No. 36 This document is prepared as a public discussion document among C-Change communities as part of the C-Change ICURA Project ( and with the permission of the C-Change Secretariat (Canada). This paper has not been subjected to peer review or other review processes and does not necessarily represent the position of individual C-Change Community Partners or researchers. This work is presented to encourage debate and enhance awareness of environmental change among coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean. C-Change Correspondence on this paper should be directed to the C-Change Secretariat, c/o C-Change Administrator, Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa, 55 Laurier Avenue East, Ottawa, Ontario CANADA K1N 6N5 administrator@coastaclchange.ca Telephone: +1 (613) x2933 C-Change Secretariat (Canada) C-Change Secretariat (Caribbean) Telfer School of Management, c/o Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of University of Ottawa Social & Economic Studies (SALISES) 55 Laurier Avenue East University of the West Indies, St. Augustine, Ottawa ON K1N 6N5 Canada Trinidad and Tobago, West Indies Tel: (613) Post 2933 Telephone: (868) Administrator@coastalchange.ca Administrator1@coastalchange.uwi.edu

2 Abstract The community of Grande Riviere in Trinidad and Tobago was the subject of a multidisciplinary study that employed a combination of geomatics, i.e., the use of field surveys and Geographic Information Systems (GIS), and socio-economic data to evaluate the susceptibility of the community to floods and storm surges due to sea-level rise. An examination was made of the level of risk that the critical facilities and properties in the community could face in the future by using projections of sea-level rise presented via spatial GIS models. Micro-data on socioeconomic characteristics of the community was collected through a face-to-face administered questionnaire. The results of this study may have important policy implications since policy- and decision makers will have to act to reduce and/or eliminate risk of exposure of specific areas of the community by implementing adaptation or mitigation measures and directing development away from future high-risk areas. Keywords Caribbean, Trinidad and Tobago, Sea-Level Rise, Geographic Information Systems March 2011 Page 2

3 C-Change Working Paper: Grande Riviere, Trinidad and Tobago: The Vulnerability of a Coastal Community to Sea-level Rise 1. Introduction The main objective of this paper is to outline the methodological framework employed in carrying out the goals for a research program 1 that seeks to examine and address the dilemma that coastal communities in the Caribbean and Canada can face due to the impact of sea level rise. A major facet of the research program is to involve the community and obtain community participation so that members of the community may determine the importance of protecting their interests. It is the community that will be ultimately affected by the research project and the consequent policy decisions, so it follows that they should play an active role and have some influence in the planning process. A related goal of this research project is to provide the affected coastal communities with the educational capacity to deal with and adapt to the impending changes due to sea level rise. Table 1 outlines the various aspects of the C-Change Research Program. Table 1: The C-Change Research Program Source: Lane and Watson (2010). Available from: sta.uwi.edu/conferences/09/salises/documents/d%20lane.pdf The communities chosen for this research exercise were chosen on specific criteria and are located in the Caribbean and Canada. Table 2 provides a description of the communities in both 1 C-Change is an International Community-University Research Alliance (ICURA) project jointly undertaken by SALISES, The University of the West Indies and Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa. March 2011 Page 3

4 the Caribbean and Canada along with the characteristics of the selected communities. Table 2: Communities in Caribbean and Canada Community Canada Caribbean Characteristics 1 Charlottetown, Prince Georgetown, Guyana Capital Cities Edward Island 2 Iqaluit, Nunavut Belize Barrier Reef, Belize Native homeland communities 3 Gibsons, British Columbia Grande Riviere, Trinidad and Tobago Mainland Coastal Communities 4 Isle Madame Cape Breton Nova Scotia Island of Bequia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines Island Communities Source: Lane and Watson (2010). Available from: sta.uwi.edu/conferences/09/salises/documents/d%20lane.pdf The research project is a multidisciplinary one and involves profiling the community by collecting environmental, economic and social data from the identified communities. The project involves GIS spatial modeling of projected sea level rise scenarios according to selected Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections (IPCC 2007), using data collected via topographic and hydrographic surveying techniques, to support socioeconomic assessments of potential sea level rise impacts upon the community of Grande Riviere. The use of GIS in support of socioeconomic analyses is not new. GIS has been used to assist in the analysis of socioeconomic impacts related to such things as transportation forecast demand (Ding 1994; Wang 2005), labour markets (Ballas 2000), marine reserve alternatives (Leeworthy and Wiley 2003), gender issues (Brown 2003), and climate change in relation to a number of issues (Middelkoop 2001; Patz et al. 2005; Ouedraogo, Some and Dembele 2006; Dasgupta et al. 2006), among other things. From as long ago as 1995 scholars investigated the utility of GIS modeling to assist policy makers and planners in the design of more effective policies better tuned both to specific local needs and to overall socio-economic and environmental constraints (Engelen et al. 1995). Within the Caribbean Region studies have been done on the need for, and use of GIS in relation to natural hazard assessments (Organization of American States 2004). It was concluded that GIS data and systems need to be standardized in order to make best regional use of the technology. However, to date, in spite of academic initiatives, Caribbean countries continue on individual pathways of development in relation to the use of GIS and other spatial technologies to assist in the impacts of natural hazards upon the socioeconomic wellbeing of the region s jurisdictions. Access to spatial data and results from studies in the region continues to be a major problem. The ICURA project, therefore, chose to engage in GIS modeling to support the socioeconomic impacts of sea level rise in the coastal community of Grande Riviere, Trinidad, based upon best available secondary data supplemented by the acquisition of local spatial primary data. The premise of the multidisciplinary approach is that baseline socioeconomic data, represented spatially, can be spatially intersected with models of selected sea level rise projections in order to provide the basis for estimating the socioeconomic impacts of the sea March 2011 Page 4

5 level rise projections upon Grande Riviere. In order to fulfill the objectives and address the data needs of the socioeconomic aspect of the project, micro level data is to be collected from each of the communities identified in Table 2. At present, data has been collected from Grande Riviere, Trinidad and Tobago and from Georgetown, Guyana from the Caribbean region. Since Grande Riviere is the first community being studied this paper examines the methodology used in data collection and provides some preliminary results that were obtained. Grande Riviere is a small, coastal community situated in the north-eastern part of Trinidad between Toco and Matelot (See Figure 1). According to Harrison (2007), the population of Grande Riviere fell from 718 to 334 between the years 1931 and 2000 (headcount at last Population Census in 2000). The economic mainstay of the Grande Riviere community lies mainly in agriculture and ecotourism 2. Figure 1: Map of Trinidad showing the Grande Riviere Community Source: Harrison, D. (2007) Cocoa, Conservation and Tourism Grande Riviere, Trinidad. Annals of Tourism Research, 34(4), pp The next section of the paper reviews the literature on the knowledge and awareness of climate change and eco-tourism in Trinidad and Tobago and the lists the community organisations in Grande Riviere. 2 The coastline of the Grande Riviere village is one of the world s most important nesting sites for the leatherback sea turtle. The beach is half a mile long but is considered to be one of the most densely nested leatherback beaches in the world and during the nesting season can host more than 5,000 leatherback turtles (Appenzeller, 2009). March 2011 Page 5

6 2. Review of the Literature 2.1. Knowledge and Awareness of Climate Change and Ecotourism in Trinidad and Tobago Within recent times the Government of Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) have taken steps to formulate and implement climate change policy in T&T. The Climate Change Policy of Trinidad and Tobago (2009) summary document lists the objectives that will guide policy formulation: i. reduce or avoid greenhouse gas emissions from all emitting sectors ii. enhance carbon sinks iii. conserve and building resilience of human and natural systems to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change, including through capacity building and the application of cleaner technologies iv. protect of the natural environment and human health v. enhance agricultural production and food security The literature on knowledge and awareness of climate change suggest that generally the Trinidad and Tobago public do not strongly value protection of the environment nor do they have an awareness of climate change, and that socioeconomic factors tend to influence the degree of their knowledge. The ecotourism module of the questionnaire is vital in this study because if ecotourism can alter the way the public views preservation of the environment then it could be a useful instrument in raising the knowledge and awareness of climate change in Grande Riviere. A study undertaken by Barran (1999) found that attitudes towards the environment and the importance of the environmental protection tended to vary widely among different social groups and was apt to be affected by the how natural resources (medicine, craft, fruits, vegetables, wild meat, recreation and timber) were used by these individuals. Nelson (2004) in a survey of 630 persons across Trinidad found that knowledge and attitudes to biodiversity were influenced by gender, ethnicity, education and income. 2.2 Community Organisations in the North Eastern Region of Trinidad The Caribbean Regional Environmental Programme CREP (2002) lists seventy (70) organisations in the northeastern area of Trinidad and Tobago with the environmental organisations being the most active. In particular, the report highlights: 1. The Toco Foundation 2. Stakeholders against Destruction for Toco (SAD for Toco) 3. Matura to Matelot Network (M2M) In the Grande Riviere area there are two environmental organisations: The Grande Riviere Nature Tour-Guide Association (GRNTA) and Grande Riviere Tourism Development Organisation (GRTDO). 3. Economic Methodology The surveys were designed to capture information from the community, from national and March 2011 Page 6

7 international tourists visiting the community and from international tourists visiting Trinidad and Tobago. 3.1 Surveys Community Due to the fact that Grande Riviere is a small community it was decided to survey all households in the community if possible. The survey was allowed to continue during the weekends of a onemonth period (March 2010) with the intention of capturing micro-level data from the households (sampling unit) in Grande Riviere. The interviewees were asked to interview the Head of the Household or any adult over 18 years residing at that address. At the end of the period 101 households were surveyed National and International Visitors to Grande Riviere Tourism, more specifically ecotourism, is an important source of income to the Grande Riviere Community. Two questionnaires were prepared for administration in this survey, one for national visitors to the area and one for international visitors to Grande Riviere. The sampling unit is a visitor to the Grande Riviere area. The survey was carried during the April-May (2010) period with the aim of capturing data from visitors (both national and international) who would most likely be visiting the community to observe the Leatherback turtles. It was determined that this was the best way to obtain data to carry out an assessment of the ecotourism services at Grande Riviere and the economic impact that these services have or can potentially have in the area. The separate surveys captured data from 114 domestic tourists and 107 international tourists Visitors to Trinidad and Tobago The objective of this survey was to determine how knowledgeable a typical tourist to Trinidad and Tobago was in relation to the sights and attractions of Trinidad and Tobago with a few additional questions on turtle-watching. The sampling unit is a visitor to Trinidad and Tobago. Included in the questionnaire were questions that targeted attempted to determine the knowledge of the tourist to Grande Riviere and the tourist attractions of the area. The survey was carried during the month of May Two hundred and fifty four (254) visitors were surveyed at the Piarco International Airport. 3.2 Design and Description of the Questionnaires Questionnaire Design Saunders et al. (2003) noted that questionnaires have been used to collect data on behaviours, opinions and knowledge for more than a century. They further observe that data collected through the questionnaire method permits the individual or sample unit to provide information for the same collection of questions ensuring that the data is directly comparable. This type of data lends itself very well to quantitative analysis. A questionnaire can be administered thorough various methods and in different ways, for example, face-to-face, by phone, by post or online. The eventual method chosen depends on the objectives of the survey and to a lesser March 2011 Page 7

8 extent the time frame and budget for the survey. The questionnaires in this study were all administered face-to-face. It was decided to use this questionnaire method because of some of the questions could have been categorized as either technical, requiring some clarification or sensitive. Another important reasons for using this questionnaire method was that it was critical that a high level of response be obtained due to the limited amount of households in the areas. A potential disadvantage of the face-to-face technique is that interviewers could bias the delivery and interpretation of the questionnaire, especially in the case where a team of interviewers are employed. To circumvent this problem a highly intensive training session was held for the team of interviewers prior to the pilot survey. After the pilot survey a debriefing session was held, which served to hone the questions and delivery of the questionnaire. The format of the questions is also important and questions can be either open-ended (any response permitted) or closed (answer is limited to predetermined list or scale). While a closed question lends itself to quick and easy recording (both at the interview and digital input stages), responses to such questions may easily be biased and restrictive for the respondent. Open questions on the other hand permit the freedom of a wide range of answers, but it lengthens the interview and input process considerably (it is close to impossible to code all responses), and it limits the scope of the quantitative analysis. All of the questionnaires for this research project contained both open-ended and closed questions, with some of the open-ended questions being coded upon entry to facilitate statistical analysis. The length of the questionnaire is an important consideration. A questionnaire has to be of adequate length to ensure that ample information and details are gathered. Cochran (1977) pointed out that surveys lasting for long time run the risk of collecting low quality information since the respondents may become impatient and disinterested. In this case the survey was expected to last no longer than 30 minutes Questionnaire Description: Community This questionnaire had five (5) sections: general, demographic and socioeconomic, ecosystem services, eco-tourism and the leatherback turtles, awareness/knowledge of climate change. Section 1: General Questions The questions in this section of the questionnaire administered to the community examined the thoughts and opinions of the inhabitants of Grande Riviere on a very basic level. Questions sought to ascertain the issues considered important to the respondents on a community level and their perception of what constitutes climate change and the significance of the changing climate in Grande Riviere. Respondents were asked to indicate what in their opinion were the three most important issues facing Trinidad and Tobago. The results of the survey of 101 households in the community March 2011 Page 8

9 indicate that 50 of those persons thought that the most important issue facing the community was crime, with roads and health being ranked as second most important and third most important, respectively. One household highlighted the environment as one of the most important issues facing the country. Among other concerns, also in this section of the questionnaire respondents were asked what the phrase climate change meant to them. Thirty six (36) respondents indicated that they had never heard the phrase climate change before, while fifty (50) individuals associated it with more intense hurricanes. Another question in this section attempted to ascertain the households perceived threats to Grande Riviere in terms of climate change and the natural environment. Specifically, one part of the question addressed the issue of sea level rise. As shown in Figure 1, most persons agree that sea level would pose a future challenge to the Grande Riviere community. Figure 1: Perception of Sea Level Rise as a Future Challenge to Grande Riviere Agree Disagree Don't Know Section 2: Demographic and Socioeconomic Information Findings in this section of the questionnaire signify that approximately 50% of the households surveyed were in the community for over 35 years, however 54% of the respondents indicated that they did not own the land upon which their house was built. Most of the households were African (76%) while the remainder considered themselves Mixed. Seventy two percent of the employed persons indicate that they work in the Grande Riviere area and most of the households have individuals employed by a private enterprise (see Figure 2). An inspection of the household income figures show that approximately 60% of all households had a monthly income of between TT$1,000 TT$5,000. With regard to informal sector activity, only 12 percent of the respondents indicate that they carried out such activity during the past month. March 2011 Page 9

10 Figure 2: Sector Employed and Employment Status Section 3: Ecosystem Services In the first sub-section of this section of the questionnaire, households were asked about their use of certain natural resources (wild herbs, wild fruit, fish, wild animals and birds and traditional medicines using local plants). Results show that the highest percentage of persons (47%) used fish from the local rivers and sea and used local plants as traditional medicine in both of these cases utilization rates were between 1 and 4 times for the month The second sub-section examined agriculture and households were asked if they were engaged in farming. Approximately 46% specified that they undertook farming and of that percentage, approximately 56% did not own the land on which they farmed. The third sub-section attempted to elicit information on Fisheries. It was found that 81% of households did not fish or hunt crabs. Other sub-sections of the Ecosystem Services section asked about the regulation of services and cultural and recreational services. Section 4: Eco-Tourism and Leatherback Turtles This section of the questionnaire investigates the role that eco-tourism and the leatherback turtles play in the Grande Riviere community. It was found that just about 18% of households had members who acted as tour guides on the Grande Riviere beach and approximately half of them earned an income from the activity. Ninety eight percent of the respondents agreed that turtle nesting in Grande Riviere increased over the last years and they unanimously agreed (100%) that the leatherback turtles should be protected. Respondents were asked to rate certain benefits related to having the leatherback turtles in the Grande Riviere community. Figure 3 illustrates the respondents response as to whether they thought that the employment created by the tourism industry that has developed around turtle nesting was important or not. It is apparent from Figure 3 that 77% of the respondents thought that turtle nesting was important to Grande Riviere. March 2011 Page 10

11 Figure 3: Importance of Turtles to Tourism Not Important 20% Very Important 43% Somewhat Important 3% Important 9% Moderately Important 25% Another question in this section dealt with the sense of pride the community has in regard to turtle nesting in Grande Riviere. Respondents were asked about their sense of pride in knowing that the turtles choose the beach of Grande Riviere for nesting. Most of the community (73%) indicated the felt great pride in knowing that Grande Riviere is the beach of choice for the turtles. Figure 4: Pride in Turtle Nesting in Grande Riviere Very Important Moderately Important Important Somewhat Important Not Important (%) of Respondents The questionnaire also sought to examine respondent s perception of visitors to the area. One question addressed the issue of whether visitors to GR visit the area mainly to see the turtles nesting. As shown in Figure 5, most respondents were of the opinion that visitors to the area were mainly interested in turtle-watching. Further, and as indicated in Figure 6, 95% of the respondents agree that turtles are an important factor in the current and future development of the GR community. March 2011 Page 11

12 (%) of Respondents Figure 5: Purpose of Visitors to Grande Riviere Figure 6: Importance of Turtles to Development in Grande Rivere Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree Regarding the future of eco-tourism and turtle-watching, 82% of the respondents indicated that increasing the number of visitors to GR will be positive for the community and that they would like to see more visitors in the area. Further, and as Figure 7 shows, the majority of community members thought that there were significant business opportunities for the GR community in the eco-tourism industry. Figure 7: The Future of Eco-tourism in Grande Riviere (%) of Respondents Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree March 2011 Page 12

13 Section 5: Awareness/Knowledge of Climate Change The community s awareness and knowledge of climate change were examined in this section of the questionnaire. Figure 3 shows the responses by households regarding their knowledge of climate change and it is clear that the highest number of respondents indicate that they do not know much about climate change Figure 3: Knowledge of Climate Change Further, respondents were requested to indicate whether they thought that Grande Riviere was at risk from climate change. Figure 4 shows that most respondents thought that climate change posed somewhat or a great deal of risk to Grande Riviere. Figure 4: The risk of Climate Change to Grande Riviere Don't Know/Not Sure Hardly at All Somewhat A Great Deal Households were asked to identify weather changes in Grande Riviere with the last 5-10 years. Table 3 shows the responses of households to weather changes in Grande Riviere. Table 3: Weather Changes in Grande Riviere Weather Change Yes No Don t Know/Not Sure Rainfall Drought Tropical Storms/Hurricanes March 2011 Page 13

14 Rising Tides/Seas Temperature increase/decrease Coastal Erosion Landslides Flooding Seasonality of Crops Vegetation Changes It is clear that respondents agree that rainfall and temperature are two of the key changes they have observed in the area. Interestingly, only 55 of the persons interviewed indicate that they have noticed rising tides and seas and 47 of them agreed that there was coastal erosion. Respondents were also given some terms and were asked whether they associated them with climate change. Higher proportions of the sample associated earthquakes, sea level rise, droughts and global warming with climate change. With regard to responsibilities to dealing with climate change, Figure 4 shows that the majority of respondents deemed the government responsible for addressing climate change. Figure 5: Responsibility for Addressing Climate Change Government Business/Industr y Community Organisations Private Citizens A key question in this section enquired about whether respondents were interested in finding our more about the impact of the weather on Grande Rivieve. This question is important since a major aspect of this research project deals with educating the community on issues related to potential changes in the climate and its effects on the area. A high proportion of the respondents were either somewhat interested or very interested in finding more about the impact of the weather on Grande Riviere. March 2011 Page 14

15 Figure 6: Interest in Climate Change and its Impact on Grande Riviere Not Interested Somewhat Interested Very Interested Don't Know/Not Sure Respondents were asked what in their opinion is the most important thing that the Grande Riviere community can do to prevent or lessen the impact of climate change. The two most frequent responses were that bush fires should be avoided and that there should be community awareness. The final section in the community questionnaire dealt with the willingness to learn about climate change and the role that various media can play in increasing knowledge and awareness. Respondents were asked if they read/listen to or watch stories on climate change. As can be determined by Figure 7, approximately 43% of the persons indicated that they frequently or occasionally read/listen or watch stories related to climate change. Relatedly, and from another question, 80% of the respondents would like to obtain more information on climate change by any of the above-mentioned methods. Figure 7 : Knowledge Gained on Climate Change Don't Know/Not Sure Infrequently Occasionally Frequently Finally, respondents were asked which would be the best ways to inform them about climate change. This question was asked as a guide to which would be the best way(s) to disseminate information to the community. The most preferred media (over 60% response rate) were: television, radio, newspaper, community groups, pamphlets and brochures, posters, schools and through friends/family. March 2011 Page 15

16 4. GEOMATICS FIELD SURVEY AND GIS METHODOLOGY The topographic and hydrographic field survey- and GIS methodological approaches were chosen to maximize use of best available secondary spatial data, and to supplement that with primary field data where appropriate. On the whole, the methodology comprised primary spatial data collection (i.e., using topographic and hydrographic surveying techniques), secondary spatial and thematic data collection, and GIS processing of the collected data (including dataset overlays, Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) creation as a digital elevation model (DEM), and static sea level rise flooding simulations). 4.1 Methodological Limitations The assumption, with regard to creation of the spatial sea level rise model, was that sea level rise was absolute, i.e., neither subsidence nor uplift of the proximate coastal landmass was taken into account. At the time of the field surveys and model creation, coastal dynamics in relation to the study site were not taken into account. Therefore, the model created represents an overlap of projected sea level rise upon a temporal snapshot of the state of the coastal environment. 4.2 Data Data used to build the sea level rise model comprised a composite of secondary and primary spatial and thematic data of Grande Riviere and environs. The sections below describe the relevant datasets Secondary Data Collection Secondary data used in the sea level rise model comprised both raster and vector datasets. The raster dataset was 1m aerial photography from which coverage for Grande Riviere and environs was extracted. The vector datasets included contours, buildings, roads, property rights boundaries, coastline, river and vegetation. The contour dataset was created via the use of photogrammetry and is accurate to ±0.50m. The buildings, roads, coastline, river and vegetation datasets were digitized from 1994 satellite imagery and 2007 aerial photography using ERSI s ArcMap. The parcel dataset was scanned from an index map and georeferenced to the WGS84 datum. With the exception of the buildings dataset, which bears an accuracy of ±2m, the other datasets are accurate to within ±5m Primary Data Collection A Trimble R6 GPS Receiver was used to establish control points within the study site. Dimensional accuracies obtained in WGS84 coordinates were: (1) x = ±0.02m; (2) y = ± 0.02m; and (3) z = ±0.20m. All subsequent topographic surveys retained these accuracies. It was necessary to estimate Mean Sea Level (MSL) at Grande Riviere in order to create the sea level rise model of the community. Long term tidal observations were not available for Grande March 2011 Page 16

17 Riviere. MSL at Grande Riviere was estimated via a tidal datum transfer from Toco fishing village where a tide gauge is located. Simultaneous tidal observations (done at both Toco fishing village and Grande Riviere), tide reductions and precise leveling were used to establish MSL at Grande Riviere. Topographic surveying techniques were used to obtain 2010 data and to update previously collected secondary data on buildings, building heights, roads, and property boundaries. This field survey technique was also used to obtain beach profiles and as well to obtain spot heights along the beach. 4.3 Data Processing The primary topographic survey data collected at Grande Riviere were then processed and imported into ArcGIS (ArcMap). The primary and secondary datasets were then used in ArcMap (3D Analyst) to create a 3D model of Grande Riviere and environs. The model has a horizontal accuracy of ±0.02m and a vertical accuracy of ±0.20m. The model was then classified to the appropriate sea level rise projection intervals needed for the model simulations. Selected IPCC projections were used to digitize various flood polygons, simulating sea level rise (i.e., 0.4m, 0.5m, 0.6m, 0.8m, 1m etc. above MSL). 4.4 GIS Sea Level Rise Model After all datasets were processed as described above, the aerial photography and vector datasets were then overlaid onto the TIN to present visualizations of Grande Riviere and the potential sea level rise physical impacts upon its environment and community infrastructure. 2D (using ArcMap) and 3D (using ArcScene) visualizations were created. 5. SPATIAL RESULTS AND ANALYSES Some of the sea level rise impact visualizations resulting from applying the foregoing methodology are illustrated in Figures 3.1 to 3.8 below. Figures 3.1 and 3.2 show 2D and 3D views, respectively, of MSL at Grande Riviere beach. Crudely measured, using the area measuring tool in ArcMap, the beach area where the leatherback turtles nest is approximately 4700 m 2. March 2011 Page 17

18 Figure 3.1: MSL at Grande Riviere Beach Figure 3.2: MSL at Grande Riviere Beach (3D) At a simulated 0.4m sea level rise above MSL (Figures 3.3 and 3.4), approximately 2060 m2 of the beach may be lost, either to inundation or beach retreat. This represents approximately 44% loss of turtle nesting habitat. Private property boundaries also are impacted. March 2011 Page 18

19 Figure 3.3: Simulated 0.4m above MSL at Grande Riviere Beach Figure 3.4: Simulated 0.4m above MSL at Grande Riviere Beach (3D) Figures 3.5 and 3.6 show simulated 0.6m sea level rise above MSL. At this level, approximately 2900 m 2 (or approximately 60%) of turtle nesting habitat may be lost to inundation or beach retreat. Private property boundaries continue to be impacted. March 2011 Page 19

20 Figure 3.5: Simulated 0.6m above MSL at Grande Riviere Beach Figure 3.6: Simulated 0.6m above MSL at Grande Riviere Beach (3D) Figures 3.7 and 3.8 show simulated 0.8m sea level rise above MSL. At this level, approximately 3200 m 2 (or approximately 68%) of turtle nesting habitat may be lost to inundation or beach retreat. Private property boundaries continue to be impacted. Additionally, physical infrastructure in the form of a beachfront hotel building begins to be physically impacted. March 2011 Page 20

21 Figure 3.7: Simulated 0.8m above MSL at Grande Riviere Beach Figure 3.8: Simulated 0.8m above MSL at Grande Riviere Beach (3D) 6. CONCLUSION Among the deleterious effects of climate change, with the potential of disrupting the socioeconomic fabric of coastal communities worldwide, are sea level rise and storm surges. All March 2011 Page 21

22 coastal communities are at risk, but those in developing nations and especially Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are especially vulnerable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has projected that global sea level will rise to 0.6m or more by Data from the questionnaire provided important inforamtion on the Grande Riviere community. It was also found that what was considered climate change by respondents was in no way considered to be an important issue facing T&T and even more critical is the need to increase knowledge and awareness of the community on the issue of climate change since 36% of the respondents have never even heard the pharse climate change. Of significance is that most of the respondents were quite keen on knowing more about climate change and they did agree that sea level rise would pose a serious challenge to the Grande Riviere community in the future. Information from the questionnaire indicate that 98% of the respondents agreed that turtle nesting in Grande Riviere had increased over the last years. The spatial sea level rise models determined that even the lowest scenario modelled (i.e., 0.4m rise in local mean sea level), there could be serious physical impacts the nesting beach at Grande Riviere. This could potentially negatively affect leatherback turtle nesting habits, which in turn could negatively affect the socioeconomic wellbeing the community that depends upon tourism economic benefits related to the turtles presence. Although the spatial sea level rise model created represents an overlap of projected sea level rise upon a temporal snapshot of the state of the coastal environment, it is useful as an indicator of potential sea level rise impacts upon the natural environment and community infrastructure. The model therefore can assist in considerations relating to hard or soft mitigation and adaptation strategies to protect the social and economic well-being of Grande Riviere. The multidisciplinary approach therefore, in this regard, is valid. March 2011 Page 22

23 7. References Appenzeller, T. (2009) Leatherback Turtles. National Geographic Magazine, May Ballas, D. and G. Clarke (2000). GIS and microsimulation for local labour market analysis. In Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 24(4): Barran, A. (1999). Ecological and socioeconomic issues in the establishment of a National Park in Matura, Trinidad, West Indies, Thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Philosophy, Department of Zoology, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of the West Indies, St. Augustine. Brown, S. (2003). Spatial Analysis of Socioeconomic Issues: Gender and GIS in Nepal. In Mountain Research and Development 23(4): CREP (2002). Country report for Amenity Area Sites: Trinidad and Tobago, Prepared by CEAC Solutions Co. Ltd. of Jamaica in association with Ecotech Inc. Ltd., CL Environmental, and Donaldson Edwards Partnership International., Caribbean Regional Environmental Programme. Dasgupta, S., Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Wheeler and Jianping Yan (2006). The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. In Climatic Change, 93(3-4): Ding, C. (1994). Impact Analysis of Spatial Data Aggregation on Transportation Forecasted Demand: A GIS Approach. URISA (1994): Engelen, G. Roger White, Inge Uljee and Paul Drazan (1995). Using cellular automata for integrated modelling of socio-environmental systems. In Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 34(2): Government of Trinidad and Tobago (2009) Climate Change Policy of Trinidad and Tobago. Draft Summary available at: :81/policy/.../Summary%20of%20Climate%20Change%20Policy%20for%20Co nsultation Harrison, D. (2007) Cocoa, Conservation and Tourism Grande Riviere, Trinidad. Annals of Tourism Research, 34(4), pp Hayes, F. E. (2002). Current Research Projects. Status, ecology and behaviour of the endagered Trinidad Piping-Guan (Pipile pipile). March 2011 Page 23

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