Water Cycle Prediction on the Prairies

Transcription

1 Water Cycle Prediction on the Prairies A. Pietroniro, S. Marin, A. Liu, B. Davison, B. Toth, D. Shaw(AAFC), L. Martz Hydrometerology and Arctic Lab, Environment Canada, NHRC and Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan Pierre Pellerin, Vincent Fortin, Stephane Belaire, Isabelle Dore, Marco Carrera RPN, Environment Canada, CMC Jessika Toyra, Raoul Granger, Garth van der Kamp Water Science and Technology Environment Canada, NHRC Craig Smith CRB, Environment Canada, NHRC

2 Outline EC Modelling System Modelling the prairie water cycle Data preparation Modelling challenges Model validation Summary and future considerations

3 Environmental Prediction Framework Upper air observations 4DVar data assimilation GEM atmospheric model Surface observations CaPA: Canadian precipitation analysis CaLDAS: Canadian land data assimilation On-line mode Off-line mode Surface scheme (CLASS or ISBA) and routing model MESH Modélisation environnementale communautaire (MEC) de la surface et de l hydrologie

4 MESH: A MEC surface/hydrology configuration designed for regional hydrological modeling Designed for a regular grid at a 1-15 km resolution Each grid divided into grouped response units (GRU or tiles) to deal with subgrid hetereogeneity based on WATFLOOD Sub-grid Hetereogeneity (land cover, soil type, slope, aspect, altitude) A relatively small number of classes are kept, only the % of coverage for each class is kept B C C C A C B B A A D C B C C D C B B C D D D D B A B C D

5 Distribution of NARR data grid and MSC weather stations The Kenaston field is marked as a black square.

6 Observed precipitation and soil moisture at site NW03 for 2007

7 NARR mean annual precipitation ( year average) Basin average annual precipitation (mm) 2001 precipitation anomaly (prcp of 2001 minus 30-year mean)

8 CaPA: Analyse de précipitation CalDAS : Analyse du surface Assimilation combines different sources of available information (model, observations, remote sensing) CaPA currently makes use of observed precipitation, 6h-12h or 12h- 18h precipitation forecasts from 15 km GEM Surface network Atmosphericmodel Satellite observations RADAR

9 Setup of Sa-MESH simulation for SSRB

10 Non-contributing areas - mean annual runoff - British Columbia Peace River 1 Athabasca River Alberta Edmonton Calgary 1 40 Saskatchewan River 3 Churchill River Saskatchewan Saskatoon Seal River 0 0 Nelson River Manitoba 10 Lake Winnipeg Hayes River 0 Ontario Washington Idaho Helena Montana 27 Missouri River Regina 62 Assiniboine River North Dakota 30 Winnipeg Red River 1 Winnipeg River Michigan Oregon Bismarck Minnesota Boise Wyoming South Dakota Wisconsin Minneapolis Saint Paul Source:Non-contributing area - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A. Elevation data - Environmental Systems Research Institute

11 Model Validation Comparison of measured to simulated soil moisture at NW03 for Level 1 = 0-10 cm Level 2 = cm Streamflow comparison ( ) (Oldman river near Waldron)

12 Stand alone MESH MESH model physics (CLASS Land Sfc Scheme) with added routing based on Watroute Forcing with met tower data Temp, precip, station pressure, specific humidity, wind, lw and sw radiation May 15 to November 30, 2007, half-hour data 35 Soil Temperature - Layer 1 - Kenaston area - Flux Tower site ( C) Soil Moisture - Kenaston area - Flux tower site [Fraction] 30 SIM OBS [5cm] SIM OBS [5cm] May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct-07

13 GCM scenario results: cumulative flows Bow current echa21 hada21 ncara21 Snow accum (mm) Precip - ET (mm) AET/PET Bow River at mouth 10.1% (-1% to 21%) Red Deer current echa21 hada21 ncara21 Snow accum (mm) Precip - ET (mm) AET/PET Red Deer at Bindloss -17% (-44% to 21%) Oldman at mouth -23.3% (-37% to -7%) South Sask at Diefenbaker -9.5% (-26% to 12%) Oldman current echa21 hada21 ncara21 Snow accum (mm) Precip - ET (mm) AET/PET South Sask current echa21 hada21 ncara21 Snow accum (mm) Precip - ET (mm) AET/PET

14 Sa_MESH model Development and Support Wiki for Live Document Repository for Code and Small Model Run Files

15 Summary and future considerations Early runs of WATFLOOD allow for basin understanding and largescale simulations on the SSRB domain. MESH coupled system tested on SSRB Run MESH model over SSRB using reanalysis data and over Brightwater Creek with field observations MESH SA validation for entire SSRB currently underway with focus on streamflow, Kenaston soil moisture and vertical water budget. Soil Moisture Remote Sensing Data Assimilation experiments this summer Systematic treatment of non-contributing area is important. Difficult problem to characterize in larger scale models SPILL algorithm provides detailed history and conceptual curves Application in Tile-based system still needs to be refined Apply ensemble forecast scheme to assist the mid- and long-term drought forecast and assess the impact of future climate change.