Preliminary Runoff Outlook February 2018
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1 Preliminary Runoff Outlook February 2018 Prepared by: Flow Forecasting & Operations Planning Water Security Agency
2 General Overview The Water Security Agency (WSA) is preparing for 2018 spring runoff including issuing this preliminary runoff outlook. The projected spring runoff potential for the province, based on conditions as of February 1, 2018, is shown on Figure 1. It is important to note that this projection assumes average climatic conditions occurring between February 1 and the spring melt. As detailed in our Conditions at Freeze-up Report which was released in November of 2017, moisture conditions were generally below normal across southern Saskatchewan and near normal through the northern portions of the grainbelt and the northern boreal forest areas. The exception was the upper portions of the Churchill River Basin, including the Meadow Lake, Pierceland, and Buffalo Narrows areas where conditions were wetter than normal at freeze-up due to well above normal to record precipitation during the spring and summer of Conditions were particularly dry south of Highway 1 due to record or near record dry conditions during the summer of The snowpack is currently well below normal south of Highway 16, with many areas nearly snow free, due to well below normal accumulations and a number of mid-winter melt events. Snowpack conditions are closer to normal through the north. Below normal snowmelt runoff is currently expected throughout the southern agricultural region of the province with well below normal snowmelt runoff expected south of Highway 1. Some agricultural water supply issues began to emerge in late summer 2017, primarily in south central areas. With below or well below normal snowmelt runoff expected in the spring of 2018, it is anticipated that these water supply shortages will intensify and expand across southern Saskatchewan and may begin to threaten some municipal supplies. It may be prudent for communities which depend on local surface water supplies to begin implementing conservation practices. Runoff volumes that are slightly above normal are currently expected for the Peter Pond and Churchill Lake basins near Buffalo Narrows. While the snowpack in this area is near normal, well above normal to record rainfall in the spring and summer of 2017 is increasing the runoff potential. No flooding related problems are anticipated in this area based on current conditions. This outlook assumes normal snowfall going forward through to the melt and a normal snowmelt. Above normal late winter snowfall and/or a rapid melt could result in flooding, even in areas where below normal runoff is currently forecasted. Even below normal runoff could compound flooding issues at terminal or semi-terminal lakes and wetlands as many of these lakes are at well above normal or near record levels following several high runoff years. This would include the Quill Lakes. 2
3 Figure 1: Spring Runoff Potential as of February 1,
4 Fall Conditions Fall conditions were detailed in the Conditions at Freeze-up Report released in November of 2017, available at The following is a summary of that report. Below to near normal snowmelt runoff in the spring of 2017 was followed by several months of well below normal rainfall over much of southern Saskatchewan. Snowmelt runoff and summer rainfall was closer to normal over northern areas of the grain belt. Further north, conditions were very wet throughout the Churchill River Basin beginning in mid-april, particularly upper portions of the basin near Meadow Lake, resulting in well above normal flows through the summer months. These high flows within the Churchill River Basin have continued through the fall and winter, with record or near record fall and winter flows throughout the system. Conditions remained dry through the fall over much of southern Saskatchewan other than areas that benefitted from the early October rain and snow event. This event brought accumulations as high as mm along a km wide band extending from the Cypress Hills northeast to Hudson Bay. Soil moisture conditions were generally adequate across the province at freeze-up except for areas in south central Saskatchewan where agricultural drought conditions persisted. Early Winter Precipitation Point snowfall data, mapped as a percent of average, is provided in Figure 2. This map is based on a relatively small number of sites across Saskatchewan and, due to challenges of measuring point snowfall data in a windy environment and losses during the winter period, it may not represent the water equivalent available for runoff. This is particularly true for many areas where the snowpack was almost completely melted or sublimated due to periods of well above normal temperatures. However, this meltwater would have wetted the soil surface, reducing the infiltration capacity available for the melt of any late season snow. 4
5 Figure 2: Percent Normal Winter Precipitation Nov. 1, 2017 to Jan. 31, 2018 (Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada) 5
6 Environment and Climate Change Canada provides a snow water equivalent (SWE) map generated using passive microwave satellite signals. Their February 1, 2017, map is provided as Figure 3. It is known that there are numerous factors which affect the accuracy of this map. For instance, there were several consecutive days with daytime air temperatures above freezing with a return to below freezing temperatures overnight. This repeated freeze-thaw of the snowpack has firmed up the surface of the snowpack resulting in the algorithm overestimating the SWE in some areas, particularly near Highway 16. Figure 3: February 1, 2018, Passive Microwave Snow Water Equivalent Map (Source: Environment & Climate Change Canada) There is reasonable agreement in the various data sources that there is well below average snowpack across southern portions of the province. Manual snow surveys will be completed in late February to confirm the snowpack conditions in advance of our early March Spring Runoff Forecast. 6
7 Long Range Precipitation Forecast Most long lead precipitation forecasts are predicting near normal precipitation across the majority of Saskatchewan for February, March, and April, with some models expecting above normal precipitation over areas near the US border. With that said, it is important to note that seasonal weather forecasts are largely unreliable. Environment and Climate Change Canada s seasonal deterministic precipitation forecast product is shown in Figure 4. Figure 4: Environment Canada Deterministic Precipitation Forecast for February, March, and April 2018 (Source: Environment & Climate Change Canada) 7
8 Water Supply Outlook Souris Basin Rafferty Reservoirs and Grant Devine Lake (previously known as Alameda Reservoir) were at their normal drawdown levels prior to February 1 and outflows were terminated from both reservoirs in January. With dry conditions at freeze-up in 2017 and well below normal snow within the basin, additional drawdown of these reservoirs is not expected in It is anticipated that reservoir releases during the spring runoff period will be limited to what may be required to meet international apportionment obligations. Detailed forecasts for the Souris River Basin are developed on or near the 1 st and 15 th of each month, beginning in February, up until the snowmelt runoff event. These forecasts can be found on Saskatchewan River Basin Winter inflows to Lake Diefenbaker have been below normal. Lake Diefenbaker was at m on February 1, 2018, which is about 0.2 m below the median level for this time of year. Outflows were above normal in January to facilitate the drawdown to this elevation to improve conditions for a SaskPower construction project planned for February and March. Outflows will be reduced in February, to near normal levels, to allow the reservoir to return to median. Snow pillows operated by Alberta Environment and Parks at higher elevations within the alpine headwaters of the basin are showing variable mountain snowpack, with SWE estimates ranging from below normal in the Oldman River Basin to above normal in the Bow River Basin. Snow courses completed in January at lower elevations also suggest an average to above average snowpack to date. However, the snowpack in the Rockies typically peaks in late April or early May at the upper altitudes. As such the snow accumulation season is only at the half way point. High flows on the system are also largely driven by significant summer rainfall events. For those reasons, it is much too early to develop a reliable spring and summer forecast for the Saskatchewan River System. Flows on the North Saskatchewan River are above normal for this time of year. This, combined with above normal outflows from Lake Diefenbaker, is resulting in above normal flows on the Saskatchewan River. 8
9 Qu Appelle System Lakes in the Qu Appelle Valley downstream of Craven are at near normal levels for this time of year. The exception is Pasqua and Echo lakes which are at above normal levels. With dry conditions within the basin, the WSA elected to leave the majority of the logs in the Echo Lake Control structure to increase the likelihood of desirable operating levels in the summer of The current expectation is for below to well below normal snowmelt runoff throughout the basin. As such, operations may be required in advance of the melt to maximize diversions into storage during the melt. Churchill System Flows in the Churchill System remain at above normal levels in response to well above normal rainfall, particularly in upper portions of the basin, during the spring and summer of While the snowpack is believed to be near normal throughout the basin, the wet conditions at freeze-up over the upper portion of the basin is expected to result in snowmelt runoff volumes that are slightly above normal across the Peter Pond and Churchill lake basins near Buffalo Narrows. Quill Lakes Top soil moisture conditions were near normal at freeze-up in 2017 within the Quill Lakes basin due to the early October 2017 rainfall event. The basin has however received below normal snowfall to date this winter and has experienced some midwinter melt south of the lakes. As such, below normal snowmelt inflows are currently forecasted for the lakes in Next Forecast The WSA will issue a Spring Snowmelt Forecast in early March. 9
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