Some Thoughts on HFIP. Bob Gall
|
|
- Neal Cain
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Some Thoughts on HFIP Bob Gall
2 Thanks! For putting up with me for the last six years, For helping to create a Hurricane Project that I believe has been very successful I will be mostly retiring at the end of the year Vijay will be taking over as Development Director Rather than the usual outline of HFIP technical achievements in the past year much of which you will hear from the team reports-- I thought I would outline some of my thoughts and comments about HFIP
3 Reasons for the success of HFIP It had significant funding you can t make much happen without sufficient resources It brought together a broad community -- research to development to operational implementation to work collectively on the hurricane problem. It facilitated communication within a large group Bi-Weekly telecons, annual meeting, workshops Community participation is developing project plans the teams It developed facilities DTC for code access and testing provides basic link R2O A dedicated large computer facility The community effort allowed a large group of scientists to focus on a single problem
4 Some general Comments Initialization remains HFIP s biggest problem Don t ignore the global model A question about statistical significance Don t ignore Ensembles More community focus on developing physics packages Comments on Recent HFIP Performance
5 Don t ignore the global model You will hear a recommendation from the SRC to cease any focus on the global model problem I am not sure that is good advice SRC feels we should focus on initialization/physics and the first 1-3 days focus on the regional model But the global model is still a central part of any regional system to the HFIP goals There is a sense within NOAA that the NGGPS project will take care of the global model But there problems/issues with the global models that are unique to the hurricane problem There needs to be some way to insure that they are appropriately addressed
6 The HFIP Project Vision/Goals Vision Organize the hurricane community to dramatically improve numerical forecast guidance to NHC in 5-10 years Goals Reduce numerical forecast errors in track and intensity by 20% in 5 years, 50% in 10 years Extend forecast guidance to 7 days with skill comparable to 5 days at project inception Increase probability of predicting rapid intensification at day 1 to 90% and 60% at day 5 6 6
7 NCEP vs ECMWF for Atlantic % gain over HFIP baseline (track) GFS ECMWF 7
8 NCEP vs ECMWF for Atlantic 2012 % gain over HFIP baseline (track) GFS ECMWF 8
9 The Initialization Problem There is no doubt that initialization remains a major problem for the program The problem pretty much eliminates the value of the regional model forecasts in the 0-2 day range (intensity) Forecasts of RI by a model during these first 2 days have little reliability The problem is likely mostly related to initial conditions that are inconsistent with the model dynamics/physics The initialization will likely ultimately be solved through data assimilation But the resultant initial flow will need to be model consistent somehow Improved data will help but it isn t the main problem
10 Stream 2.0 Skill (AL Intensity) - Smaller sample size - Decay SHIPS shows highest model skill APSI skill gain is largest through 72 h
11 Stream 1.5 Skill (AL Intensity) - Statisticaldynamical configurati ons show highest skill including SPC3 Dynamical models transition from (-) to (+) skill with lead time CXTI and UW4I show lowest skill
12 Stream 1.5 Skill (EP Intensity) - CXTI and HWFI show highest skill Statisticaldynamical configuratio ns generally lose skill with lead time HFIP 5-yr skill goal met intermittent ly
13 Question about statistical significance Recently there has been a lot of emphasis on looking at the statistical significance of error comparisons Such as the impact of some change compared to a control run There is no doubt that this is very important in some settings But note that almost all tests of the impact of some change in the model at NCEP are not statistically significant Yet they are used to make decisions on model changes And the models get better.
14 Impact of Radar Data
15
16
17 Don t Ignore Ensembles I probably don t have to say this to ensemble people But they seem to want to focus on probabilities But most folks want to know when and where NHC thinks the hurricane is going to hit and how strong it will be when it does which is a deterministic forecast Ensembles give some information like that ensemble mean But we are throwing away a huge amount of information that can be used to improve a deterministic forecast from both multi-model and single ensembles. This isn t a criticism of forecasters It is a criticism of the project that hasn t put enough emphasis on developing simple tools for extracting this information from the ensemble and presenting them to the forecaster
18
19
20 Emphasis on Physics Packages The two primary areas where we can improve the models is Initialization and improved physics packages In my opinion we need more focus within the broad community (outside the operational centers) on developing/testing/improving physics packages Particularly the university community I am not sure why physics gets less emphasis in the research community than say data assimilation (and cores)
21 Comments on Recent HFIP Performance
22 Operational Intensity Forecast Trends* and HFIP Goals *Courtesy NHC: 2013 results are preliminary, subject to revision
23 HWRF Intensity ATL Basin Cumulative Forecast Improvements Improving 15-20% per year since version is approaching 5 year goal 23
24 Stream 1.5 Skill (AL Intensity) - Statisticaldynamical configuratio ns show highest skill including SPC3 Dynamical models transition from (-) to (+) skill with lead time CXTI and UW4I show lowest skill most lead times
25 Stream 2.0 Skill (AL Intensity) - Smaller sample size - Decay SHIPS shows highest model skill APSI skill gain is largest through 72 h
26 Stream 1.5 Skill (AL Track) - GPMI lowest skill for most lead times, but still higher than HFIP 5-yr skill goal HWRF highest skill among operation al models
27 Stream 2.0 Skill (AL Track) - Smaller sample size HWRF and FIM configurati ons show highest skill most lead times HFIP 5-yr skill goal surpassed for most lead times
Forecast Challenges of the 2017 Hurricane Season and NHC Priorities for 2018
Forecast Challenges of the 2017 Hurricane Season and NHC Priorities for 2018 Michael J. Brennan, Mark DeMaria, Eric S. Blake, Richard J. Pasch, Andrew Penny Annual HFIP Meeting 8 November 2017 Outline
More informationNOAA s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Framework for Addressing the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017
NOAA s Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project: Framework for Addressing the Weather Research Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 Frank Marks (NOAA/AOML/HRD) November 7, 2018 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement
More informationThe role of testbeds in NOAA for transitioning NWP research to operations
ECMWF Workshop on Operational Systems November 18, 2013 The role of testbeds in NOAA for transitioning NWP research to operations Ligia Bernardet 1* and Zoltan Toth 1 1 NOAA ESRL Global Systems Division,
More informationHurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Bob Gall HFIP Development Manager
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Bob Gall HFIP Development Manager Boulder, Colorado June 26, 2012 2 The HFIP Project Vision/Goals Vision o Organize the hurricane community to dramatically
More informationExpansion of NCEP Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Model Forecast Guidance to all Global Tropical Cyclones
Expansion of NCEP Operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) Model Forecast Guidance to all Global Tropical Cyclones Dr. Vijay Tallapragada, Hurricane Team Leader & HFIP Development Manager,
More informationPerformance of the 2013 Operational HWRF
Performance of the 2013 Operational HWRF Vijay Tallapragada & HWRF Team Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740. HFIP Annual Review Meeting, February 19, 2014 1 Outline
More informationNOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Fred Toepfer Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Manager November 9 th, 2009 Outline NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project Driving Issue Purpose NOAA
More informationDeterministic vs. Ensemble Forecasts: The Case from Sandy
Deterministic vs. Ensemble Forecasts: The Case from Sandy Robert Gall, David McCarren and Fred Toepfer Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP); National Weather Service (NWS); National Oceanic and
More informationOPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR HURRICANE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS / VERIFICATION
OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR HURRICANE MODEL DIAGNOSTICS / VERIFICATION Richard J. Pasch National Hurricane Center Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop Miami, Florida 4 May 2009 NOAA/NESDIS
More informationAdvancements in Operations and Research on Hurricane Modeling and Ensemble Prediction System at EMC/NOAA
Advancements in Operations and Research on Hurricane Modeling and Ensemble Prediction System at EMC/NOAA Zhan Zhang and Vijay Tallapragada EMC/NCEP/NOAA/DOC Acknowledgements: HWRF Team Members at EMC,
More informationHMON (HNMMB): Development of a new Hurricane model for NWS/NCEP operations
1 HMON (HNMMB): Development of a new Hurricane model for NWS/NCEP operations Avichal Mehra, EMC Hurricane and Mesoscale Teams Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP HMON: A New Operational Hurricane
More informationHFIP Diagnostics Workshop Summary and Recommendations
HFIP Diagnostics Workshop Summary and Recommendations Agenda Summary Operational input from NHC Atmospheric diagnostics EMC, NESDIS, CSU, GFDL, ESRL New verification techniques JNT/NCAR Land surface, ocean,
More informationNHC Ensemble/Probabilistic Guidance Products
NHC Ensemble/Probabilistic Guidance Products Michael Brennan NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC Mark DeMaria NESDIS/STAR HFIP Ensemble Product Development Workshop 21 April 2010 Boulder, CO 1 Current Ensemble/Probability
More informationGFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble Performance During the 2012 Hurricane Season
GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble Performance During the 2012 Hurricane Season Tim Marchok (NOAA / GFDL) Matt Morin (DRC HPTG / GFDL) Morris Bender (NOAA / GFDL) HFIP Team Telecon 12 December 2012 Acknowledgments:
More informationThe Evolution and Use of Objective Forecast Guidance at NHC
The Evolution and Use of Objective Forecast Guidance at NHC James L. Franklin Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit National Hurricane Center 2010 EMC/MMM/DTC Workshop 1 Hierarchy of TC Track Models
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 14 AUGUST 27, 2014
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 14 AUGUST 27, 2014 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (less than 70 percent)
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 31 SEPTEMBER 13, 2012 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by average amounts (70-130 percent) of activity
More informationEnsemble Prediction Systems
Ensemble Prediction Systems Eric Blake National Hurricane Center 7 March 2017 Acknowledgements to Michael Brennan 1 Question 1 What are some current advantages of using single-model ensembles? A. Estimates
More informationBASIN-SCALE HWRF: Evaluation of 2017 Real-Time Forecasts
BASIN-SCALE HWRF: Evaluation of 2017 Real-Time Forecasts HARVEY IRMA MARIA Ghassan Alaka1,2, Xuejin Zhang1,2, Gopal2, Frank Marks2, Mu-Chieh Ko1,2, Russell St. Fleur1,2 Acknowledgements: NOAA/NWS/EMC,
More informationTropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation. Jason Sippel NOAA AOML/HRD 2018 WMO Workshop at NHC
Tropical Cyclone Modeling and Data Assimilation Jason Sippel NOAA AOML/HRD 2018 WMO Workshop at NHC Outline History of TC forecast improvements in relation to model development Ongoing modeling/da developments
More informationSatellite Applications to Hurricane Intensity Forecasting
Satellite Applications to Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Christopher J. Slocum - CSU Kate D. Musgrave, Louie D. Grasso, and Galina Chirokova - CIRA/CSU Mark DeMaria and John Knaff - NOAA/NESDIS Center
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 17 AUGUST 30, 2012 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-average amounts (greater than 130 percent)
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2015
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 15 SEPTEMBER 28, 2015 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4-17, 2015
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 4-17, 2015 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More informationRetrospective and near real-time tests of GSIbased EnKF-Var hybrid data assimilation system for HWRF with airborne radar data
Retrospective and near real-time tests of GSIbased EnKF-Var hybrid data assimilation system for HWRF with airborne radar data Xuguang Wang, Xu Lu, Yongzuo Li University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK In collaboration
More informationNCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System. HWRF Performance Verification in 2015
1 NCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System HWRF Performance Verification in 2015 The HWRF Team Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP NOAA/NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740, USA. Zhan Zhang, Samuel Trahan,
More informationThe EMC Mission.. In response to operational requirements:
The EMC Mission.. In response to operational requirements: Maintain operational model suite The scientific correctness and integrity of operational forecast modeling systems Modify current operational
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 AUGUST 29, 2013 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-average amounts (greater than 130 percent)
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 2 AUGUST 15, 2013 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More informationOverview of HFIP FY10 activities and results
Overview of HFIP FY10 activities and results Bob Gall HFIP Annual Review Meeting Miami Nov 9, 2010 Outline In this presentation I will show a few preliminary results from the summer program. More detail
More informationModel assessment using a multi-metric ranking technique
Philosophy Model assessment using a multi-metric ranking technique Pat Fitzpatrick and Yee Lau, Mississippi State University at Stennis Ghassan Alaka and Frank Marks, NOAA AOML Hurricane Research Division
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2011
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 28 OCTOBER 11, 2011 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (less than 70 percent)
More informationTransitioning Physics Advancements into the Operational Hurricane WRF Model
Transitioning Physics Advancements into the Operational Hurricane WRF Model KATHRYN NEWMAN, MRINAL BISWAS, LAURIE CARSON N OA A / ESR L T EA M M E M B E RS: E. K ALINA, J. F RIMEL, E. GRELL, AND L. B ERNARDET
More informationNOAA Report. John Gaynor US THORPEX Executive Committee 7 October 2009
NOAA Report John Gaynor US THORPEX Executive Committee 7 October 2009 1 EnKF testing NOAA-THORPEX funding supported development of EnKF algorithms at many locations (ESRL, UMD, CSU, NRL) from 2005-2007.
More informationNHC Activities, Plans, and Needs
NHC Activities, Plans, and Needs HFIP Diagnostics Workshop August 10, 2012 NHC Team: David Zelinsky, James Franklin, Wallace Hogsett, Ed Rappaport, Richard Pasch NHC Activities Activities where NHC is
More informationCalifornia DWR and WSWC 2018 Seasonal to Sub- Seasonal Workshop
California DWR and WSWC 2018 Seasonal to Sub- Seasonal Workshop CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ROGER V. PIERCE NOAA & WESTERN STATES FEDERAL AGENCY SUPPORT TEAM (WESTFAST) WestFAST Environmental Protection
More informationHFIP Annual Review Meeting November 5-7, 2018 Embassy Suites by Hilton Miami International Airport 3974 NW S River Dr, Miami, FL 33142
HFIP Annual Review Meeting November 5-7, 2018 Embassy Suites by Hilton Miami International Airport 3974 NW S River Dr, Miami, FL 33142 Overall Objectives The new HFIP Strategic Plan detailing the specific
More informationThe National Weather Service of the Future: Building a Weather-Ready Nation
The of the Future: Building a Weather-Ready Nation Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services NCEP Production Suite Review December 2, 2014 Outline Building a Weather-Ready
More informationA Multi-Model Ensemble for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. A Multi-Model Ensemble for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction Jonathan R. Moskaitis Naval Research
More informationIntroduction to the HWRF-based Ensemble Prediction System
Introduction to the HWRF-based Ensemble Prediction System Zhan Zhang Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA/NWS, NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740 USA 2018 Hurricane WRF Tutorial, NCWCP, MD. January 23-25.
More informationMethodology for 2013 Stream 1.5 Candidate Evaluation
Methodology for 2013 Stream 1.5 Candidate Evaluation 20 May 2013 TCMT Stream 1.5 Analysis Team: Louisa Nance, Mrinal Biswas, Barbara Brown, Tressa Fowler, Paul Kucera, Kathryn Newman, Jonathan Vigh, and
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 25 OCTOBER 8, 2014
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 25 OCTOBER 8, 2014 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More information2017 Year in review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Developmental Priorities
2017 Year in review: JTWC TC Activity, Forecast Challenges, and Developmental Priorities Mean Annual TC Activity????????? Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Annual Review 8-9 NOV 2017 Brian Strahl,
More informationOperational and Statistical Prediction of Rapid Intensity Change. Mark DeMaria and Eric Blake, NCEP/NHC John Kaplan, AOML/HRD
Operational and Statistical Prediction of Rapid Intensity Change Mark DeMaria and Eric Blake, NCEP/NHC John Kaplan, AOML/HRD Outline Evaluation of NHC forecasts and deterministic models for rapid intensification
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 30 SEPTEMBER 12, 2013 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by average amounts (70-130 percent) of activity
More informationA proposal to establish a dedicated Hurricane Model Evaluation and Improvement Project. Joseph Cione Eric Uhlhorn NOAA/Hurricane Research Division
A proposal to establish a dedicated Hurricane Model Evaluation and Improvement Project Joseph Cione Eric Uhlhorn NOAA/Hurricane Research Division Motivation. Overall objective: Improve HWRF forecast performance
More informationMethodology for 2014 Stream 1.5 Candidate Evaluation
Methodology for 2014 Stream 1.5 Candidate Evaluation 29 July 2014 TCMT Stream 1.5 Analysis Team: Louisa Nance, Mrinal Biswas, Barbara Brown, Tressa Fowler, Paul Kucera, Kathryn Newman, and Christopher
More informationMotivation & Goal. We investigate a way to generate PDFs from a single deterministic run
Motivation & Goal Numerical weather prediction is limited by errors in initial conditions, model imperfections, and nonlinearity. Ensembles of an NWP model provide forecast probability density functions
More informationTing Lei, Xuguang Wang University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA. Wang and Lei, MWR, Daryl Kleist (NCEP): dual resolution 4DEnsVar
GSI-based four dimensional ensemble-variational (4DEnsVar) data assimilation: formulation and single resolution experiments with real data for NCEP GFS Ting Lei, Xuguang Wang University of Oklahoma, Norman,
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 1 SEPTEMBER 14, 2015
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 1 SEPTEMBER 14, 2015 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by below-average amounts (
More informationNCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System. HWRF Performance Verification in 2016
1 NCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System HWRF Performance Verification in 2016 The HWRF Team Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP NOAA/NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740, USA. Zhan Zhang, Avicha Mehra, Samuel
More informationReport on EN6 DTC Ensemble Task 2014: Preliminary Configuration of North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)
Report on EN6 DTC Ensemble Task 2014: Preliminary Configuration of North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE) Motivation As an expansion of computing resources for operations at EMC is becoming available
More informationThe Use of GPS Radio Occultation Data for Tropical Cyclone Prediction. Bill Kuo and Hui Liu UCAR
The Use of GPS Radio Occultation Data for Tropical Cyclone Prediction Bill Kuo and Hui Liu UCAR Current capability of the National Hurricane Center Good track forecast improvements. Errors cut in half
More informationEvaluation and Improvement of HWRF PBL Physics using Aircraft Observations
Evaluation and Improvement of HWRF PBL Physics using Aircraft Observations Jun Zhang NOAA/AOML/HRD with University of Miami/CIMAS HFIP Regional Modeling Team Workshop, 09/18/2012 Many thanks to my collaborators:
More informationDA/Initialization/Ensemble Development Team Milestones and Priorities
DA/Initialization/Ensemble Development Team Milestones and Priorities Presented by Xuguang Wang HFIP annual review meeting Jan. 11-12, 2017, Miami, FL Fully cycled, self-consistent, dual-resolution, GSI
More information2017 Real-time COAMPS-TC EPS
2017 Real-time COAMPS-TC EPS Jon Moskaitis, Will Komaromi, Alex Reinecke, and Jim Doyle Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA HFIP Annual Review Meeting: 8 November 2017 Typhoon Noru Hurricane Norma
More informationDevelopmental Testbed Center: Core Activities for HFIP
Developmental Testbed Center: Core Activities for HFIP Kathryn Newman Evan Kalina, Louisa Nance, Bill Kuo DTC HFIP Annual Meeting 2017 November 8 DTC strategies to promote HWRF O2R2O DTC purpose: Facilitate
More informationThe Properties of Convective Clouds Over the Western Pacific and Their Relationship to the Environment of Tropical Cyclones
The Properties of Convective Clouds Over the Western Pacific and Their Relationship to the Environment of Tropical Cyclones Principal Investigator: Dr. Zhaoxia Pu Department of Meteorology, University
More information2014 real-time COAMPS-TC ensemble prediction
2014 real-time COAMPS-TC ensemble prediction Jon Moskaitis, Alex Reinecke, Jim Doyle and the COAMPS-TC team Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA HFIP annual review meeting, 20 November 2014 Real-time
More informationEnsemble TC Track/Genesis Products in
Ensemble TC Track/Genesis Products in Parallel @NCO Resolution Members Daily Frequency Forecast Length NCEP ensemble (AEMN-para) GFS T574L64-33km(12/02/15) 20+1_CTL 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC 16 days (384hrs)
More informationPerformance and Verification of HWRF/HMON Ensemble Prediction System in 2017 Real time Parallel Experiment. Zhan Zhang, Weiguo Wang
1 Performance and Verification of HWRF/HMON Ensemble Prediction System in 2017 Real time Parallel Experiment Zhan Zhang, Weiguo Wang and the EMC Hurricane Team Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP,
More informationTransition of Research to Operations
Transition of Research to Operations Ligia Bernardet Shaowu Bao, Mrinal Biswas, Tim Brown, Don Stark, Laurie Carson http://www.dtcenter.org/hurrwrf/users External collaborators: NOAA Environmental Modeling
More informationCOAMPS-TC 2015 Version, Performance, and Future Plans
COAMPS-TC 2015 Version, Performance, and Future Plans James D. Doyle, R. Hodur 1, J. Moskaitis, S. Chen, E. Hendricks 2, H. Jin, Y. Jin, A. Reinecke, S. Wang Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 1 IES/SAIC,
More informationTransitions. Newsletter Spring-Summer By stimulating the use of operational codes by the research community, composed of
Developmental Testbed Center DTC Transitions Newsletter Spring-Summer 2015 ISSUE 8 Courtesy of Paula McCaslin INSIDE THIS ISSUE DIRECTOR S CORNER 1,2 NITE ARTICLE 1,2 BRIDGES TO OPERATIONS 3 WHO S WHO
More informationIMPROVEMENT IN HURRICANE
IMPROVEMENT IN HURRICANE INTENSITY FORECAST USING NEURAL NETWORKS Tirthankar Ghosh and TN Krishnamurti Florida State University Tallahassee, FL-32306, USA HFIP Annual Review Meeting, Jan 11-12, 2017 National
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18-31, 2017
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 18-31, 2017 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by above-average amounts (>130%) of activity relative to
More informationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Five-Year Strategic Plan
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Five-Year Strategic Plan 13 December 2010 Frederick Toepfer HFIP Program Manager Robert Gall HFIP Development Manager
More informationDiscussion on HFIP RDITT Experiments. Proposal for extending the life of RDITT for one more year: Future Plans from Individual Groups
Discussion on HFIP RDITT Experiments Proposal for extending the life of RDITT for one more year: Future Plans from Individual Groups 1 EMC: Modifications to one-way hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation
More informationImpact of Assimilating Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations in Operational HWRF
Impact of Assimilating Aircraft Reconnaissance Observations in Operational HWRF Mingjing Tong, Vijay Tallapragada, Emily Liu, Weiguo Wang, Chanh Kieu, Qingfu Liu and Banglin Zhan Environmental Modeling
More informationWeb-Based Decision Support Tool
Web-Based Decision Support Tool PAULA MCCASLIN AND KIRK HOLUB NOAA / GSD 5/11/11 NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory Personal Weather Advisor (concept idea) Decision Support in Weather-Sensitive Situations
More informationATCF: LESSONS LEARNED ON TC CONSENSUS FORECASTING. John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS and Buck Sampson, NRL, Monterey
ATCF: LESSONS LEARNED ON TC CONSENSUS FORECASTING John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS and Buck Sampson, NRL, Monterey Definitions TC tropical cyclone Aid individual model forecast Guidance any method that provides
More informationEnsemble Prediction Systems
Ensemble Prediction Systems Eric S. Blake & Michael J. Brennan National Hurricane Center 8 March 2016 Acknowledgements to Rick Knabb and Jessica Schauer 1 Why Aren t Models Perfect? Atmospheric variables
More informationContemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting. David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center
Contemporary Challenges in Short-Term Climate Forecasting David DeWitt Director, Climate Prediction Center 1 Outline Commercial: NOAA Administrator s Award for Decisions Support Services Associated with
More informationCanadian Hurricane Center: How NHC Products are used to issue Warnings and Communicate Hazards
Canadian Hurricane Center: How NHC Products are used to issue Warnings and Communicate Hazards Bob Robichaud Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Canadian Hurricane Centre Contents Brief background on the
More informationA Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid
AUGUST 2011 S A M P S O N E T A L. 579 A Deterministic Rapid Intensification Aid CHARLES R. SAMPSON Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, California JOHN KAPLAN NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami,
More informationAssimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations Using the Unified GSI based Hybrid Ensemble Variational Data Assimilation System for HWRF
Assimilation of Airborne Doppler Radar Observations Using the Unified GSI based Hybrid Ensemble Variational Data Assimilation System for HWRF Xuguang Wang xuguang.wang@ou.edu University of Oklahoma, Norman,
More informationCurrent Issues and Challenges in Ensemble Forecasting
Current Issues and Challenges in Ensemble Forecasting Junichi Ishida (JMA) and Carolyn Reynolds (NRL) With contributions from WGNE members 31 th WGNE Pretoria, South Africa, 26 29 April 2016 Recent trends
More informationT-PARC and TCS08 (Submitted by Pat Harr, Russell Elsberry and Tetsuo Nakazawa)
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL CORE STEERING COMMITTEE FOR THORPEX Eighth Session DWD, Offenbach (2 4 November 2009) CAS/ICSC-8/DOC4.1 (3 X.2009) Item:
More informationOperational Hurricane Modeling at NCEP/EMC
Operational Hurricane Modeling at NCEP/EMC Avichal Mehra Hurricane Project Lead Environmental Modeling Center NOAA / NWS / NCEP ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 49 th Session 21-24 February 2017, Yokohama,
More informationNOAA s FV3 based Unified Modeling System Development Strategies
NOAA s FV3 based Unified Modeling System Development Strategies HFIP Annual Meeting, 8-9 Nov. 2017 HFIP Annual Meeting, Miami, FL; 8-9 Nov. 2017 1 NOAA s Modeling capabilities (Hurricane related) Global
More informationA Preliminary Exploration of the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification
A Preliminary Exploration of the Upper Bound of Tropical Cyclone Intensification Jonathan L. Vigh (NCAR/RAL) Kerry Emanuel (MIT) Mrinal K. Biswas (NCAR/RAL) Eric A. Hendricks (Naval Postgraduate School)
More informationCOLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13-SEPTEMBER 26, 2018
COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE ACTIVITY FROM SEPTEMBER 13-SEPTEMBER 26, 2018 We expect that the next two weeks will be characterized by near-normal amounts of hurricane activity.
More informationNOAA HFIP R&D Activities Summary: Recent Results and Operational Implementation
NOAA NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION United States Department of Commerce 2014 HFIP R&D Activities Summary: Recent Results and Operational Implementation May 2015 HFIP Technical Report:
More informationA High-Quality Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Dataset Using 4DVAR Data Assimilation Technique
A High-Quality Tropical Cyclone Reanalysis Dataset Using 4DVAR Data Assimilation Technique Prof. Tim Li IPRC/University of Hawaii and Dr. Fuzhong Weng, Chief Sensor Physics Branch NOAA/NESDIS/Office of
More informationRecent COAMPS-TC Development and Future Plans
Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Future Plans James D. Doyle, Jon Moskaitis, Rich Hodur1, Sue Chen, Hao Jin, Yi Jin, Will Komaromi, Alex Reinecke, David Ryglicki, Dan Stern2, Shouping Wang Naval Research
More informationHFIP ENSEMBLE PLAN. Jun Du (EMC/NCEP), presenting on behalf of the HFIP Ensemble Team:
HFIP ENSEMBLE PLAN Jun Du (EMC/NCEP), presenting on behalf of the HFIP Ensemble Team: Sim Aberson (HRD) Sim.Aberson@noaa.gov Tom Hamill (ESRL) tom.hamill@noaa.gov Carolyn Reynolds (NRL) carolyn.reynolds@nrlmry.navy.mil
More information2017 Hurricane Season and Beyond
2017 Hurricane Season and Beyond Ken Graham National Hurricane Center Building a Weather-Ready Nation Much of U.S. Coast Saw Tropical Wind Watches or Warnings 2017 Hurricane Season Facts and Figures 7th
More informationBuilding a Weather-Ready Nation For Aviation
Building a Weather-Ready Nation For Aviation Laura Furgione NOAA Deputy Assistant Administrator for Weather Services Friends and Partners in Aviation Weather July 22, 2014 Case for Change Average Year
More informationGSI Data Assimilation System Support and Testing Activities: 2013 Annual Update
14Th Annual WRF Users Workshop, Boulder, CO, June 24-28, 2013 GSI Data Assimilation System Support and Testing Activities: 2013 Annual Update Hui Shao1, Ming Hu2, Chunhua Zhou1, Kathryn Newman1, Mrinal
More informationNational Hurricane Center Forecast Accuracy: Past and Present James L. Franklin Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center Forecast Accuracy: Past and Present James L. Franklin Branch Chief, Hurricane Specialist Unit National Hurricane Center 30 January 2012 1 NHC Forecast Verification NHC verifies
More informationThe Developmental Testbed Center: Update on Data Assimilation System Testing and Community Support
93rd AMS Annual Meeting/17th IOAS-AOLS/3rd Conference on Transition of Research to Operations, Austin, TX, Jan 6-10, 2013 The Developmental Testbed Center: Update on Data Assimilation System Testing and
More informationTesting and Evaluation of GSI Hybrid Data Assimilation for Basin-scale HWRF: Lessons We Learned
4th NOAA Testbeds & Proving Ground Workshop, College Park, MD, April 2-4, 2013 Testing and Evaluation of GSI Hybrid Data Assimilation for Basin-scale HWRF: Lessons We Learned Hui Shao1, Chunhua Zhou1,
More informationOverview of the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project
Overview of the Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project Dr. Jonathan L. Vigh With thanks to Mahsa Mirzargar (Univ. of Miami) Shanghai Typhoon Institute 09 July 2018 NCAR is sponsored by the National Science
More informationEMC multi-model ensemble TC track forecast
EMC multi-model ensemble TC track forecast Jiayi Peng*, Yuejian Zhu and Richard Wobus* *IMSG at Environmental Modeling Center Environmental Modeling Center /NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD 2746 Acknowledgements:
More informationRECOMMENDED PRACTICE FOR SITE SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE JACK-UP UNITS
RECOMMENDED PRACTICE FOR SITE SPECIFIC ASSESSMENT OF MOBILE JACK-UP UNITS GULF OF MEXICO ANNEX Revision 0 September 2007 Rev Issue Date Details 0 September 2007 Submitted to SNAME OC7 for Adoption Introduction:
More informationAssimilation of GPS RO Data for Tropical Cyclone Prediction with HWRF Chunhua Zhou1, Hui Shao1, Bill Kuo1 and Ligia Bernardet2
Assimilation of GPS RO Data for Tropical Cyclone Prediction with HWRF Chunhua Zhou1, Hui Shao1, Bill Kuo1 and Ligia Bernardet2 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 2 NOAA/ESRL/GSD Sixth FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC
More informationNumerical Weather Prediction: Data assimilation. Steven Cavallo
Numerical Weather Prediction: Data assimilation Steven Cavallo Data assimilation (DA) is the process estimating the true state of a system given observations of the system and a background estimate. Observations
More informationThe WRF Developmental Testbed Center (DTC)
The WRF Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) Bob Gall A facility where the NWP research and operational communities interact to accelerate testing and evaluation of new models and techniques for research
More informationEvolution of the GFDL hurricane model in research and transition to NMC operations
Evolution of the GFDL hurricane model in research and transition to NMC operations Robert E. Tuleya (Saic, EMC & CCPO/ODU) Morris Bender (GFDL) Isaac Ginis (URI) Tim Marchok (GFDL) URI/GSO Y. Kurihara
More informationRecent advances in Tropical Cyclone prediction using ensembles
Recent advances in Tropical Cyclone prediction using ensembles Richard Swinbank, with thanks to Many colleagues in Met Office, GIFS-TIGGE WG & others HC-35 meeting, Curacao, April 2013 Recent advances
More information