NCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System. HWRF Performance Verification in 2015
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1 1 NCEP Operational Hurricane Modeling System HWRF Performance Verification in 2015 The HWRF Team Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP NOAA/NCWCP, College Park, MD 20740, USA. Zhan Zhang, Samuel Trahan, Mingjing Tong, Qingfu Liu, Weiguo Wang, Lin Zhu, Bin Liu Jason Sippel, Banglin Zhang, Sergio Abarca, Keqin Wu, Hyun-Sook Kim, Dan Iredell, Xiaolin Xu, Chun- Sil Jin,Vijay Tallapragada & Several collaborators (extended team members) at NHC, JTWC, HRD/AOML, GFDL, URI, ESRL, DTC, HFIP/JHT PIs and various international agencies
2 Outline 2 Verification of operational HWRF track/intensity forecasts in NATL/EPAC/CPAC/WPAC/NIO basins in 2015; Verification of RI in 2015 operational HWRF; Individual storm verification in each basins; Summary/Concluding Mark
3 Highlights of 2015 HWRF 3 System & Resolution Enhancements Replace current partial HWRF python based scripts with complete Python based scripts for a unified system GFS data Upgrades Increase the horizontal resolution of atmospheric model for all domains from 27/9/3 to 18/6/2 km. Initialization/Data Assimilation Improvements Upgrade and improve HWRF vortex initialization scheme in response to both GFS and HWRF resolution increases Upgrade Data Assimilation System with hybrid HWRF-based EnKF and GSI system. Physics Advancements Upgrade Micro-physics process (Ferrier-Aligo) Upgrade GFDL radiation to RRTMG scheme with partial cloudness Upgrade surface physics and PBL, momentum and enthalpy exchange coefficients(cd/ch) Upgrade current GFDL slab model to NOAH LSM. First time in Self cycled HWRF ensembles based warm start for TDR DA Expand HWRF capabilities to all global (including WP/SH/IO) basins through 7-storm capability in operations to run year long Pre-implementation Results
4 HWRF in the 2015 North Atlantic Basin (Ana-Kate) Real-Time Performance 4 track error Intensity error Intensity bias track skill Intensity skill
5 HWRF in the 2015 Eastern Pacific Basin (Andres-Patricia) Real-Time Performance 5 track error Intensity error Intensity bias track skill Intensity skill
6 HWRF in the 2015 Central Pacific Basin (Halola-Eight) Real-Time Performance 6 track error Intensity error Intensity bias
7 HWRF in the 2015 Western Pacific Basin (Higo-Champi) Real-Time Performance 7 track error Intensity error Intensity bias Intensity skill track skill
8 HWRF in the 2015 North Indian Basin (Ashobaa-Megh) Real-Time Performance 8 track error Intensity error Intensity bias
9 PDF Comparison of HWRF Predicted Intensity and Observed Intensity 9 AL EP CP WP IO
10 PDF Comparison of HWRF Predicted 24h Intensity Changes and Observed 24h Intensity 10 AL EP CP WP IO
11 POD Improvement in North Atlantic Basin POD=4.8% FAR=0.6% POD=44.4% FAR=0.7%
12 POD Improvement in Eastern Pacific Basin POD=1.2% FAR=0.26% POD=5.1% FAR=0.55%
13 13 Highlight from real-time operational HWRF in 2015 Atlantic Basin Erica Joaquin Kate
14 Highlight from real-time operational HWRF in 2015 Eastern Pacific Basin (Patricia, 20E) 14 ~180kts Track RI: ~30kts/12h intensity 3 days before RI HWRF captured most of RI, 11/17 in Patricia intensifying period: RI: 30kts/24h
15 Highlight from real-time operational HWRF in 2015 WPAC and NIO Basin 15 Goni, 16W Dujuan, 21W Megh, 05A
16 Summary/Concluding Remarks 16 HWRF maintained its good track/intensity forecast skills in 2015 season, and has performed consistently better than other regional models in all global tropical cyclone basins, with exception of intensity forecasts at WP that CTCI has smallest intensity forecast errors; RI forecast is greatly improved in 2015 HWRF. HWRF is able to predict most of rapid intensity (RI) cycles, but not extreme strong intensity (e.g. Patricia); The HWRF intensity forecast has large negative bias at EP, this is probably is due to use of climatology of ocean temperature profile at initial time. Acknowledgements: HFIP Management; Collaborations with national and international operational and research agencies and academia
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