Development of the Basin-scale HWRF Modeling System
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1 Development of the Basin-scale HWRF Modeling System Xuejin Zhang and Ghassan Alaka, Jr. (AOML/HRD) HFIP Annual Meeting, 11 January 2017
2 Team AOML/HRD (Team Lead: S. Gopalakrishnan) G. Alaka R. Black H. Chen J. Delgado S. Diaz S. Goldenberg T. Quirino K. Sellwood R. St. Fleur J. Zhang X. Zhang HRD colleagues NCEP/EMC (Branch Chief: V. Tallapragada; Acting Team Lead: A. Mehra) B. Ferrier Hyun-Sook Kim B. Liu Q. Liu J. Michalakes D. Sheinin M. Tong S. Trahan W. Wang Z. Zhang EMC/Hurricane team DTC L. Bernardet L. Carson J. Frimel C. Holt K. Newman HWRF task team GFDL T. Marchok M. Bender URI B. Thomas I. Ginis NPS M. Boothe M. Montgomery B. Rutherford 1
3 Acknowledgement Main contributors of web products, analysis and slides: G. Alaka H. Chen S. Goldenberg S. Gopalakrishnan P. Reasor R. Rogers K. Sellwood R. St. Fleur B. Thomas J. Zhang X. Zhang 2
4 2016 Achievements Increased HB16 resolution to km Developed basin-scale MPIPOM-TC initialization with RTOFS Developed basin-scale HWRF forecast system in operational HWRF framework Operated real-time HB16 (4 cycles daily) Redesigned basin-scale HWRF product website Accelerated web product delivery (near real-time) Available for HFP and Map Discussions at Noon, NPS genesis team 3
5 Basin-scale HWRF System HORIZONTAL DOMAINS VORTEX INITIALIZATION/DA 2016 OPERATIONAL HWRF (H216) 2016 BASIN-SCALE HWRF (HB16) 18 KM: X KM: X KM: X 8.61 Improved Vortex Initialization Hybrid TDR DA/Improved GSI DA 18 KM: X KM: X KM: X 8.61 Improved Vortex Initialization (Improved GSI DA) OCEAN COUPLING 18-6 KM: POM; 2 KM: No Static SST(real-time); 18-6 KM: POM; 2 KM: NO (Retro) CYCLING VERTICAL LEVELS & MODEL TOP MICROPHYSICS RADIATION PHYSICS SCHEMES Vortex Cycling 61 levels; 2 hpa Ferrier-Aligo (High Resolution) RRTMG SURFACE GFDL (tuned C D, C H ) PBL SCHEME CONVECTION LAND SURFACE 2016 GFS (High Resolution) Scale-Aware SAS NOAH LSM 4
6 Results: Track/Intensity Verification Statistics HB16 = 2016 Basin-Scale HWRF H216 = 2016 Operational HWRF 5
7 Atlantic Basin Track Skill Intensity Errors 6
8 East Pacific Basin Track Skill Intensity Errors 7
9 Results Cases Study 8
10 Matthew (14L) & Nicole (15L) Very complex track forecast, with a potential binary interaction. HB16 correctly forecasted that Matthew would move NE and dissipate. 9
11 Matthew Verification Track Errors Intensity Errors 10
12 Nicole Verification Track Errors Intensity Errors 11
13 TC Genesis GASTON (07L) X = Genesis Location Lead Time = 48 hrs 12
14 TC Genesis KARL (12L) X = Genesis Location Lead Time = 60 hrs 13
15 TC Genesis HERMINE (09L) X = Genesis Location GENESIS TOO EARLY KARL (12L) X = Genesis Location Lead Time = 60 hrs 14
16 Web Products 15
17 Real-time Website ( Product delivery accelerated via new graphics package Timing on par with HWRF Used by HFP, Map Discussions, & others On-the-fly analysis Products for: HB16 HB15 GFS 16
18 Real-time Website Choose Forecast Toggle Cycle Toggle Multi-Pane Toggle Model Choose Product 17
19 Model Development 18
20 HWRF-B Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled System Domain 3 (2 km) Atmosphere Storm one SST Domain 1 (18 km) Domain 2 (6 km) Fluxes SST Fluxes SST Coupler Grid-to-grid interpolation/ extrapolation ; diagnostics Fluxes SST Ocean POM HYCOM Domain 5 (2 km) SST Domain 4 (6 km) Fluxes SST Storm two Modified from 2015 HWRF tutorial talk by Dmitry A. Sheinin, NCEP/EMC
21 HWRF-B Oceanic Component (MPIPOM-TC) Credit to Biju Thomas & Isaac Ginis, URI
22 Basin-scale HWRF Features and Forecast Applications The unique features of the basin-scale HWRF: Static outer domain spanning nearly ¼ of the globe Multiple sets of movable nests targeting multiple storms Independent parallel integration on outer domain and each set of movable domains Coarse and fine resolution two-way interactions and vortex-vortex interactions RTOFS ocean initialization Forecast applications: Basin-scale HWRF as a genesis forecast model like global model, i.e. run every cycle, even if no TCs Proof of concept for FV3, i.e. spawn nests in the basin-scale HWRF when TC genesis occurs (or earlier) Independent hybrid DA for both large-scale (satellite) and vortex-scale (flight) Ensemble forecasts 21
23 Target R2O Transition Create a new development branch (Done) Complete multi-storm coupler (Improving efficiency) Complete ocean initialization merging (Done) Start full coupled system retrospective forecasts for multiple seasons (Ongoing, need resource, due April 15) Form an operational/implementation transition plan (TBD) Test on operational machine configuration and scalability (TBD) 22
24 Extra Slides 23
25 Forecast Counts (Atlantic) STORM TOTAL HB16 01L - ALEX L - BONNIE L - COLIN L - DANIELLE L- EARL L - FIONA L - GASTON L - TD-EIGHT 15 1 STORM TOTAL HB16 09L - HERMINE L - IAN L - JULIA L - KARL L - LISA L - MATTHEW L - NICOLE L - OTTO 16 16
26 Forecast Counts (East Pacific) STORM TOTAL HB16 01E - TD-ONE E - AGATHA E - BLAS E - CELIA E - DARBY E - ESTELLE E - FRANK E - GEORGETTE E - HOWARD E - IVETTE E - JAVIER STORM TOTAL HB16 12E - KAY E - LESTER E - MADELINE E - NEWTON E - ORLENE E - PAINE E - ROSLYN E - ULIKA E - SEYMOUR E - TINA E - OTTO 7 7
27 HB16 Forecast Breakdown BASIN TOTAL HB16 % ATLANTIC % EAST PACIFIC % TOTAL % Note: 1. Invest cycles NOT included forecast gaps, due to Jet data issues, are currently being filled
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