Assimilation of GPS RO Data for Tropical Cyclone Prediction with HWRF Chunhua Zhou1, Hui Shao1, Bill Kuo1 and Ligia Bernardet2
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1 Assimilation of GPS RO Data for Tropical Cyclone Prediction with HWRF Chunhua Zhou1, Hui Shao1, Bill Kuo1 and Ligia Bernardet2 1 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) 2 NOAA/ESRL/GSD Sixth FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC Data Users Workshop 30 October 1 November 2012
2 Objectives i) ii) Assess the performance of HWRF in tropical cyclone prediction as a result of GPS RO data assimilation and improved configuration of the HWRF system. Investigate the impact of GPS RO in the framework of GSI ensemble hybrid system for HWRF.
3 2011 HWRF Operational Configuration TCVitals Definition of HWRF domains Bogus or previous forecasted vortex GFS Analysis Vortex relocation/ correction Obs o Deep Storm? POM WRF-NMM GSI o o ü ü Forecast Model forecast domains: outer and inner HWRF vortex initialization domain: 4x GSI analysis domain: outer (0.18deg) and ghost (0.06deg) TCVital: Tropical Cyclone Vital Statistics Records Deep storm: estimated top of circulation is 200 mb
4 HWRF Domain(s) Defined using TCVitals ref_lat and ref_lon in geogrid (WPS) are calculated according to the observed and (72-hr) predicted location of the strom from TCVitals file provided by NHC and JTWC. HWRF outer/inner domain at : ref_lat=-61 ref_lon=-17 HWRF outer/inner domain at : ref_lat=-67 ref_lon=
5 Case Study: Erika 2009 Track AL 09 sheared (weak) storms HWRF Best track Hodograph at near Erika Intensity HWRF Courtesy of NHC, university Wyoming, Surgi and HWRF team
6 Experimental Design: Operational Configuration (Baseline) Objectives: Assess data impacts with 2011 operational framework/configuration. HWRF: v3.3a GSI: v3, Global BE Testing period: Background: GFS Research rerun analysis (pre13d) Experiments: DFT: Operational config (No regional GSI) GSI: prepbufr + radiance GPS: prepbufr + radiance + gpsro PREP: prepbufr GPSP: Prepbufr + gpsro
7 Operational Configuration (No GSI) DFT:DFT: Operational Configuration (No GSI) 2009 Real time DFT (HWRF3.3) Best track
8 Best track DFT (No GSI) Conv+rad Conv+rad+GPSRO Best track DFT (No GSI) Conv Conv+GPSRO Positive impact from DA With Radiance Without Radiance
9 Best track DFT (No GSI) Conv+rad Conv+rad+GPSRO With Radiance Best track DFT (No GSI) Conv Conv+GPSRO Without Radiance
10 Experimental Design: Alternative Configuration HWRF: v3.3a GSI: v3, Global BE Testing period: Background: GFS Research rerun analysis (pre13d) Experiments: DFT: Operational config. (No GSI) HDFT: Same as DFT, except POM and Vortex relocation/correction were removed
11 and Vortex Initialization? POM andpom Vortex Relocation/Correction? Track Forecast With POM and Vortex Init Best track W/O POM and Vortex Init
12 POM and Vortex Initialization? POM and Vortex Relocation/Correction? Intensity Forecast Max wind MSLP With POM and Vortex Init W/O POM and vortex Init
13 Separate impacts of POM and Vortex Correction No POM No vortex Vortex Correction: key factor in this case!
14 Experimental Design: GSI Partial Cycling TCVitals Definition of HWRF domains Objectives: Assess data impacts with alternative framework/configuration. GFS Analysis HWRF: v3.3a GSI: v3, Global BE cool start WRF-NMM Obs GSI WRF-NMM Forecast Cycling Testing period: Background: NMM (HWRF-atm) 6hr forecast from previous cycle or GFS analysis GSI is only cycled in outer domain.
15 GFS vs Partial Cycling GFS vs Partial Cycling Track Forecast 18 hr Cycling Best track No GSI (GFS cold start)
16 GFS vs Partial Cycling GFS vs Partial Cycling Intensity Forecast Max wind MSLP 18hr cycling NO GSI (GFS cold start)
17 GPS impact DFT.vs. GPS 18hr DA cycling.vs. GSI 18hr DA cycling.vs. Best Track without vortex init. and POM
18 No DA GPS only Best Track Positive impact from GPS only on track forecast DA runs have HWRF forecast from t-6hr GFS analysis as background; no POM/Vortex
19 Experimental Design: Basin Scale HWRF Objectives: Assess data impacts of GPS RO in the framework of GSI ensemble hybrid system for HWRF.. HWRF: Mingjing s branch - EMC minimal Hybrid GSI system; dx=dy=27km; 498x432; 61vertical levels GSI: branch as HWRF, Mingjing s from EMC repository BE: Global BE (0.25) + GFS ensembles (80)(0.75) Testing period: Experiments: NODA: No regional GSI CONV: prepbufr data assimilated CONV+GPS: prepbufr and GPS RO assimilated
20 Maria 2011
21 Track Forecast Minor but mostly positive impact from GPS RO
22 Intensity Forecast Some positive impact from assimilating GPS RO
23 Summary ü ü ü ü In this study, we assess the performance of HWRF in tropical cyclone prediction as a result of GPS RO data assimilation and improved configuration of the HWRF system. Removing vortex initialization and cycling data assimilation improved the track and intensity forecast for weak tropical cyclones. This suggests that the bogus vortex implantation process needs to be improved for relatively weak cyclones. Assimilation of GPS RO data was found to have some positive impact on the track and intensity forecast. Additional experiments conducted in the framework of GSI ensemble hybrid system for basin scale HWRF reach similar conclusions.
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