EMC multi-model ensemble TC track forecast
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1 EMC multi-model ensemble TC track forecast Jiayi Peng*, Yuejian Zhu and Richard Wobus* *IMSG at Environmental Modeling Center Environmental Modeling Center /NCEP/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD 2746 Acknowledgements: EMC Ensemble Team Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project 5 th NCEP Ensemble User Workshop, 1-12 May 211, Laurel, MD
2 Track forecast error for 29 season (AL+EP+WP) GEFS GEFSbc GFS NAEFS Cases NAEFS is combined from GEFSbc and CMCbc, GEFS-T126L28, GFS-T382L64 2
3 Models and Data Resolution Members Daily Frequency Forecast Length NCEP ensemble GFS T19L28-7km 2+1, 6, 12, 18 UTC 16 days (384hrs) CMC ensemble ECMWF ensemble GEM(.9)L58-1km IFS T639/319L62-3/6km 2+1, 12 UTC 16 days (384hrs) 5+1, 12 UTC 15 days (36hrs) NCEP deterministic GFS T574L64-27km 1, 16, 12, 18 UTC 192 /384hrs CMC deterministic ECMWF deterministic GEM(.45x.3) L58-33km IFS T1279L91-16km 1, 12 UTC 18/24 hrs (12/z) 1, 12 UTC 24 hrs Data: 1/1~12/31/21 NCEP, CMC and ECMWF TC tracks Our goal: Improve tropical-cyclone track prediction by using NCEP, CMC and ECMWF global ensemble forecast products!
4 21 multi-model ensemble product (3EMN). 21 hurricanes in Atlantic 1Nautical Mile=1.852km Verification: 3EMN and 6EMX are much better than OFCL. GEMN 3EMN AVNO 6EMX OFCL NCEP (GEFS) 2-member mean NCEP+CMC+ECMWF 9-member mean NCEP (GFS) deterministic run (T574L64) three ensemble+ three deterministic runs weighted-mean OFCL official forecast
5 21 multi-model ensemble product (3EMN). 12 hurricanes in East Pacific GEMN 3EMN AVNO 6EMX OFCL NCEP (GEFS) 2-member mean NCEP+CMC+ECMWF 9-member mean NCEP (GFS) deterministic run (T574L64) three ensemble+ three deterministic runs weighted-mean OFCL official forecast
6 21 multi-model ensemble product (3EMN). 19 Typhoons in West Pacific Verification: 3EMN and 6EMX are much better than JTWC. GEMN 3EMN AVNO 6EMX JTWC NCEP (GEFS) 2-member mean NCEP+CMC+ECMWF 9-member mean NCEP (GFS) deterministic run (T574L64) three ensemble+ three deterministic runs weighted-mean JTWC official forecast
7 2 21 Atlantic: 3EMN/6EMN (3EMN/6EMN -hour delay) EMN 6EMN OFCL #CASES EMN---NCEP,CMC, ECMWF 9-member mean 6EMN---three ensemble means+three deterministic runs, 6-member mean
8 21 Atlantic: 3EMI/6EMI (6-hour TC track interpolation, 3EMN/6EMN 6-hour delay) EMI 6EMI OFCL #CASES EMN---NCEP,CMC, ECMWF 9-member mean 6EMN---three ensemble means+three deterministic runs, 6-member mean
9 25 21 Atlantic: 3EM2/6EM2 (12-hour TC track interpolation, 3EMN/6EMN 12-hour delay) EM2 6EM2 OFCL #CASES EMN---NCEP,CMC, ECMWF 9-member mean 6EMN---three ensemble means+three deterministic runs, 6-member mean
10 25 21 West Pacific: 3EMN/6EMN (3EMN/6EMN -hour delay) EMN 6EMN JTWC #CASES EMN---NCEP,CMC, ECMWF 9-member mean 6EMN---three ensemble means+three deterministic runs, 6-member mean
11 21 West Pacific: 3EMI/6EMI (6-hour TC track interpolation, 3EMN/6EMN 6-hour delay) EMI 6EMI JTWC #CASES EMN---NCEP,CMC, ECMWF 9-member mean 6EMN---three ensemble means+three deterministic runs, 6-member mean
12 21 West Pacific: 3EM2/6EM2 (12-hour TC track interpolation, 3EMN/6EMN 12-hour delay) EM2 6EM2 JTWC #CASES EMN---NCEP,CMC, ECMWF 9-member mean 6EMN---three ensemble means+three deterministic runs, 6-member mean
13 Strike probability AL6: Danielle (21) Ensemble mean track GEMN----NCEP 2-member mean TEMN----CMC 2-member mean UEMN---- ECMWF 5-member mean 3EMN----NCEP+CMC+ECMWF 9-mean
14 Strike probability WP15: Megi (21) Ensemble mean track GEMN----NCEP 2-member mean TEMN----CMC 2-member mean UEMN---- ECMWF 5-member mean 3EMN----NCEP+CMC+ECMWF 9-mean
15 Spread/Error (NM) GEFS-T254 next implementation in 211 GFS-T574 T19-Error T19-Spread T254-Error T254-Spread GFS T574: GFSv9.1, next implementation GEFS T19: GFSv8., current operation GEFS T254: GFSv9.1, next implementation CASES Forecast Hours Tropical Storm Tracks (Aug. Sep. 21, for AL, EP and WP)
16 Conclusions The multi-model ensemble forecast products (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF ensemble forecast) could significantly reduce the 21 TC track forecast error. If the multi-model ensemble forecast products delay 6-hour (12-hour), they are still valuable to the 21 TC track forecast. Please visit Future plans: Add Navy Ensemble (FNMOC), MetOffice ensemble into this multiple model ensemble forecast system. Add meso-scale models (HWRF, GFDL, SREF, etc.) into this multiple model ensemble forecast system. Develop new consensus /ensemble method. Produce TC intensity multi-model ensemble forecast.
17 21 Atlantic: Multi-model (6EMX) VS. individual model forecast GEMN TEMN UEMN AVNO CMH EMH 6EMX #CASES GEMN/AVNO----NCEP TEMN/CMH----CMC UEMN/EMH----ECMWF
18 21 East Pacific: Multi-model (6EMX) VS. individual model forecast GEMN TEMN UEMN AVNO CMH EMH 6EMX #CASES GEMN/AVNO----NCEP TEMN/CMH----CMC UEMN/EMH----ECMWF
19 21 West Pacific: Multi-model (6EMX) VS. individual model forecast GEMN TEMN UEMN AVNO CMH EMH 6EMX #CASES GEMN/AVNO----NCEP TEMN/CMH----CMC UEMN/EMH----ECMWF
20 21 GEFS Bias-correction TCs: AL1-21, EP1-12,WP GEMN BEMN AVNO Cases GEMN---- NCEP 2-member mean BEMN---- NCEP bias-correction 2-member mean AVNO---- NCEP (GFS) deterministic run (T574L64)
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