Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Future Plans
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1 Recent COAMPS-TC Development and Future Plans James D. Doyle, Jon Moskaitis, Rich Hodur1, Sue Chen, Hao Jin, Yi Jin, Will Komaromi, Alex Reinecke, David Ryglicki, Dan Stern2, Shouping Wang Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 1SAIC, 2UCAR Sponsors ONR, NRL, NOAA HFIP 1 Sept. 6, UTC, VIIRS image of Hurricane Irma (CAT 5) (NASA)
2 COAMPS-TC System Overview Analysis: Cycling or no cycling: 3D-Var (NAVDAS), 4D-Var, EnKF DART Atmos.: Nonhydrostatic, moving nests, TC physics Ocean: 3D-Var (NCODA), ocean (NCOM), wave options (SWAN, WWIII) Ops.: km (2017); COTC (NAVGEM) & (GFS) Ensemble: km (2017); 11 member ensemble (w/ HWRF, HMON) Vongfong (2014) Simulated Radar Reflectivity Gaston (07L) (12Z 28 Aug 2016) 2
3 3 COAMPS Performance History (AL/EP/CP/WP) Track Error (nm) Intensity Error (kt) Forecast Time (h) Forecast Time (h) Marked improvement in COAMPS-TC () track and intensity forecasts over time (non-homogeneous sample)
4 4 COAMPS Operational Statistics Track Error (nm) Intensity Error (kt) COAMPS-TC COAMPS-TC Forecast Time (h) Forecast Time (h) COAMPS-TC () has performed very well compared with other leading models for the time period (AL/EP/CP/WP)
5 COAMPS-TC 2017 Version Intensity MAE (solid) and ME (dashed) 45/15/5 km 36/12/4 km Best Track Atlantic/EastPac/WestPac TCs observed to rapidly intensify (0-24 h) 5 km 4 km Intensity MAE (solid) and ME (dashed) 4 km 5 km Sample size Sample size 2017 version of COAMPS-TC with 4 km horizontal resolution. Intensity MAE is improved (5-10% improvement over 2016) Forecasts are particularly improved for TCs with observed RI 5
6 6 Position Error 2017 Operational Statistics Atlantic Basin Intensity Error & Bias HWRF HMON GFS HWRF HMON (GFS based) track close to GFS & HWRF thru 48h; trailed10-20 nm after 60h intensity had a worse spin-up problem (0-12h) in 2017 than 2016 intensity top performer after 84h (despite bias)
7 7 Position Error 2017 Operational Statistics Eastern Pacific Intensity Error & Bias HWRF HMON GFS HWRF HMON (GFS based) track very close to HWRF thru 120h; trails GFS 20 nm after 96h intensity trailed HWRF by kt through 72h
8 8 Position Error 2017 Operational Statistics Western Pacific Intensity Error & Bias COTC HWRF HWRF GFS GFS NVGM COTC HWRF (GFS based) track trails HWRF nm after 48h, 70 nm at 120h (NE bias) COTC (NAVGEM based) track trails NAVGEM, generally top performer for intensity; COTC is close through 60h
9 COAMPS-TC Ensemble System 2017 Track Statistics 9 Ensemble control vs Ensemble mean vs Ensemble Control Ensemble Mean ATL Track MAE ATL/EPAC/WPAC Track MAE Ensemble Control Ensemble Mean Sample size Sample size Ensemble mean outperforms Ensemble mean similar or better MAE w.r.t. control for most lead times
10 COAMPS-TC Ensemble System 2017 Intensity Statistics Ensemble control vs Ensemble mean vs ATL Intensity ATL/EPAC/WPAC Intensity Ensemble Control Ensemble Mean Ensemble Control Ensemble Mean Ensemble mean has a lower MAE than CTRL and through 72h (ATL) and 120h (ATL/EPAC/WPAC) 10
11 COAMPS-TC Ensemble System 2017 Real-Time Products 11 Ensemble forecast products: Track colored by intensity Irma (11L), initial time (~54 h before FL Keys landfall) COAMPS-TC COAMPS-TC/HWRF/HMON
12 COAMPS-TC Ensemble System 2017 Real-Time Products 12 Ensemble forecast products: 24 h intensity change probabilities Harvey (09L), initial time (~48 h before TX landfall) COAMPS-TC COAMPS-TC/HWRF/HMON
13 COAMPS-TC Basin Scale COAMPS-TC 36-h forecast of 10-m winds Initial time: km 45 km 5 km 15 km Conventional (triple nested) COAMPS-TC application on left ( km) 5 km basin-scale high-resolution grid (right); entire mesh convective permitting Capable of predicting genesis of disturbances that do not exist at initial time More expensive (but parallelizes well), step towards hi-res global forecasts 13
14 Basin-Scale COAMPS-TC Harvey (09L) initial time: Precipitation forecast challenge Basin-scale COAMPS-TC forecast track Best track Houston NWS Basin-scale COAMPS-TC track takes Harvey offshore, closer to best track than. Axis of heaviest precipitation is near the coast instead of inland 14
15 15 COAMPS-TC Summary and Future Plans COAMPS-TC Much Improved for Track & Intensity in : Improved intensity error (higher resolution; ocean coupling; new C D param, vortex init) Improved track errors (new initialization; new physics) Multi-model high-res. ensemble (NOAA/Navy) and air-ocean coupling promising Challenges: i) Prediction of RI; ii) TC physics (PBL, microphysics); iii) inner core DA COAMPS-TC 2017/18: Deterministic: 4 km resolution & various upgrades; run worldwide (may be ops) Ensemble: 4 km resolution, 11 members, initial & boundary condition perturbations over W. Atlantic, E. Pacific, W. Pacific COAMPS-TC Priorities ( ): TC physics: Improved PBL (testing), cloud microphysics (testing Thompson) New shallow CU (planned 2018), New cumulus (planned 2018) Analysis: 4D-Var (testing in 2018), emphasis on satellite DA Ensemble: 11 members (ops in 2018); stochastic physics (testing) Coupling: Ocean, waves (2019), coupled DA Resolution: 4 km (2017), 2 km (2020), 4 km basin scale (2022+) Utilize field observations: ONR TCI,NASA HS3, SHOUT
16 Basin-Scale COAMPS-TC 16 Basin-scale COAMPS-TC example: initial time (Irma/Jose/Katia) Western Atlantic inset radar reflectivity forecast loop
17 Nested COAMPS-TC Harvey (09L) initial time: Precipitation forecast challenge 120 h accum precip Weak steering flow challenged models in predicting post-landfall track of Harvey For this initial time correctly indicated eastward motion, but tracked TC too far north Houston Axis of heaviest precipitation too far inland in forecast, due to track error 17
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