Your Creekside at Bethpage Weather with 2017 Forecasts. By Kevin Walls

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Your Creekside at Bethpage Weather with 2017 Forecasts. By Kevin Walls"

Laurence Hensley
5 years ago
Views:

1 Your Creekside at Bethpage Weather with 2017 Forecasts By Kevin Walls

2 Lets discuss. What are the Weather Extremes? Why are our wind patterns always the same? What are the causes of our weather patterns? What is MADIS? Where does the TV weatherman get all that data? NOAA Forecasts Where to get Creekside Weather Data?

3 Durham Averages Current Pattern is Lowest since 1960 s The coldest day of the year is January 19 The hottest day of the year is July 17 Annual Precipitation is Current Year 38.57

4 Durham Averages

5 Wind Creekside Average Avg 7 9 MPH

6 Wind Patterns and Pressure H Outward L Inward

7 North America - Appalachian Impact on Creekside

8 Regional Storm Paths

9 Local Topography Creekside Storms Sandhills

MADIS DATA is the Keystone Meteorological

Weather Service) NOAA National Models Canadian

Forecasts NCEP Ensemble Output Page PSU Eyewall

MADIS CWOP CW7607 (7000+ NA Stations, send 70,000

Stations APRS (Automatic Position Reporting System

10 MADIS DATA is the Keystone Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System NWS (National Weather Service) NOAA National Models Canadian Ensemble European (ECMWF) Ensemble NCEP Models & Forecasts NCEP Ensemble Output Page PSU Eyewall Page (College) RAP (Rapid-Refresh) SREF From SPC MADIS CWOP CW7607 (7000+ NA Stations, send 70,000 Data Points /Hr) Weather Underground 180,000+ Stations APRS (Automatic Position Reporting System ) Greg Fishel Elizabeth Gardner 19,251 Airports 136 Universities (6 in NC)

Urban Drainage and Flood Control Colorado Avalanche Information Center Kennedy Space Center NASA Marshall Space Flight

11 Major Data Providers NWS Weather Forecast Offices National Center for Environmental Prediction National Ocean Service National Transportation Safety Board National Center for Atmospheric Research Department of Homeland Security Denver Urban Drainage and Flood Control Colorado Avalanche Information Center Kennedy Space Center NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Corporation for Atmospheric Research Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University Other Universities Weather Underground

2017 Winter Weather Forecast Long Range Prediction From NOAA La Niña develops when sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are cooler than average for an extended period of time.

12 2017 Winter Weather Forecast Long Range Prediction From NOAA La Niña develops when sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are cooler than average for an extended period of time. This affects the location of jet streams, causing impacts in North America. The most notable impacts occur in the winter, when the wind patterns in the atmosphere are strongest

Overall 2017-18 Predictions Overall, we expect this winter will be: drier than normal with near- to above-normal temperatures As a continuation of our warm fall, we predict warm weather will dominate

13 Overall Predictions Overall, we expect this winter will be: drier than normal with near- to above-normal temperatures As a continuation of our warm fall, we predict warm weather will dominate in December. best chances for cooler weather will be in January fewer than normal wintry events. drought is likely to remain and even intensify this winter. La Niña episodes represent periods of below-average sea surface temperatures across the eastcentral Equatorial Pacific.

14 Greenland Blocking High An eastern based La Nina couple with Warm water and Greenland High south of Greenland should HELP (at the very least) with storminess and cold in the east.

15 National Picture Precipitation Temperature December 2017 February 2018

16 2-Month Weather Forecast DECEMBER 2017: temperature 51 (4 above avg.); precipitation 6.5" (3" above avg.); Dec 15-18: Rainy periods, mild; Dec 19-22: Sunny, cool; Dec 23-31: Rainy periods, mild. JANUARY 2018: temperature 44 (1 above avg.); precipitation 5.5" (1" above avg.); Jan 1-7: Rain to snow, then sunny, cold; Jan 8-11: Sunny, mild; Jan 12-21: A few showers, mild; Jan 22-24: Sunny, cold; Jan 25-31: Heavy rain, then sunny, mild.

17 Annual Weather Summary: November 2017 to October 2018 Winter in general will be warmer and rainier than normal, with below-normal snowfall. The coldest periods will be in early January and early February. The best chances for snow will be in early January and early February. April and May will be drier than normal. Summer will be slightly hotter than normal, on average, with above-normal rainfall. The hottest periods will be in early to mid-june, early August, and mid- to late August. Overall, September and October will be warmer and drier than normal. Watch for a tropical storm threat in early to mid-september.

18 Dec 21 st Creekside Projection

Creekside Station Kevin Walls PWS ( Personal Weather Station) Behind 1027 Branwell Dr Station Info CW7607 / KNCNORTH27 - Lat 35

19 Creekside Station Kevin Walls PWS ( Personal Weather Station) Behind 1027 Branwell Dr Station Info CW7607 / KNCNORTH27 - Lat " N Lon " W Elev Ft Data Collected at 1027 Branwell Dr., Durham, NC United States of America

20 KNCNORTH27 at Creekside at Bethpage KNCNORTH27

21 Additional Creekside Data

22 Questions? Brought to you by : Kevin Walls 1027 Branwell Dr., Durham NC wallskev@gmail.com

23 Thank You Brought to you by : Kevin Walls 1027 Branwell Dr., Durham NC wallskev@gmail.com

A summary of the weather year based on data from the Zumwalt weather station

ZUMWALT PRAIRIE WEATHER 2016 A summary of the weather year based on data from the Zumwalt weather station Figure 1. An unusual summer storm on July 10, 2016 brought the second-largest precipitation day